Crist Blog | July 29, 2007
A Track-record Whitney -- Or Was It? [Update: It Was]
Lawyer Ron ran a huge race winning the Whitney Saturday afternoon, but his reported track-record time of 1:46.64 is so completely out of whack with the other races on the Saratoga card that there is serious doubt about whether the clocking was accurate.
"We're going to take a look at it," said NYRA chairman Steve Duncker. "We don't want to establish a major track record like this by mistake."
Lawyer Ron supposedly smashed the mark of 1:47 set by Tri Jet in the pre-100ths days of 1974 and equalled by Left Bank's 1:47.04 in the 2002 Whitney. The clocking immediately seemed odd to those who had just watched Ginger Punch win the Grade 1 Go For Wand by 6 widening lengths in 1:49.19 (2.55 seconds slower) only 31 minutes earlier. And when speed handicappers sat down to review the entire day of racing at Saratoga, the Whitney clocking stuck out like a badly-swollen thumb on a day that was otherwise relatively straightforward.
On the Beyer Speed Figure scale, Ginger Punch earned a raw figure of 114. In her two previous starts, she had earned Beyers of 104 and 103 and this appeared to be a roughly similar performance, deserving of a variant of around -10 that would have given her a final Beyer of 104. But Lawyer Ron's raw figure in the Whitney was an astronomical 138, and applying a variant of -10 again would give him an implausible figure of 128, a level reached only by Ghostzapper in the last decade.
Awarding Lawyer Ron a 128 would mean giving runner-up Wanderin Boy, who had never exceeded a figure of 107 except at Keeneland (where he earned figures of 110 and 113 when that track was in its pre-Polytrack inside-speed heyday), a figure of nearly 120. Diamond Stripes, with consistent figures of 104-105-106-105 in his last four starts, would get about a 117. This suggests an error of about a full second in the Whitney clocking -- and it's easy to see where it may have occurred:
The early fractions of the race, set by Wanderin Boy, were reported as 23.86, 47.37 and 1:10.28. Does one of those look strangely fast? That third quarter of 22.91 seconds seems impossible, especially as it was partly run into the far turn. At the very least, such a blazing third quarter would figure to enervate the leaders who ran it, but instead the horses who were running 3-1-5-2 at the time ended up running 1-2-3-4 in a race where no one gained any significant ground late.
I tapped into the DRF internal database just after midnight to see what Mark Hopkins, the extremely careful and sophisticated speed handicapper who makes the NYRA figs for Beyer Associates, had done with the race. He had made perfect sense of the rest of the card with a variant that was otherwise consistent throughout the day but had left the Whitney completely blank for now, clearly unwilling to give it an absurdly high figure.
Whatever the real time and appropriate figure, it was a breakthrough performance for Lawyer Ron, who had recorded Beyers of 108-109-106 in his last three starts. Todd Pletcher, who took over his training last fall, said he has been patiently working with the once-headstrong Langfuhr colt to get him to relax. The plan had been gradually succeeding, despite losses as the 8-5 favorite in the Met Mile and as the 1-10 favorite in the Salvatore Mile, and things broke perfectly for Lawyer Ron in the Whitney. Even breaking from post 10 turned out to be a blessing, as he was able to drop into a garden spot just behind the two speeds, Wanderin Boy and stablemate Fairbanks, and he was able to take over from them at will.
Lawyer Ron ($13.00) capped a $370.50 all-Breeders'-Cup-Challenge-race pick four on an afternoon where longshots dominated early (see previous post) and a semblance of order returned late. In the other stakes races:
--My Typhoon ($8.10) got a well-deserved first career Grade 1 victory winning the Diana by 3/4's of a length over Argentina with 6-5 favorite Makderah another half-length back in third. My Typhoon seemed a tad shaky at the nine-furlong distance, having tired late in her last four tries at the distance (including last year's Diana), and she doesn't inspire confidence stretching out to 10 furlongs for the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf, the race to which she won an automatic starting berth as part of the BC Challenge promotion. But even if the half-sister to Galileo never wins again, her Diana triumph was sweet vindication for owner Charlotte Weber and trainer Bill Mott's decision to keep her in training as a 5-year-old.
--Diabolical ($7.00) earned a berth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint with a professional half-length triumph over a very game Attila's Storm in the G2 Vanderbilt. As expected, Attila's Storm dueled early with Commentator, setting the table for Diabolical, a five-time stakes-winner who has also been second to Silver Wagon in the G1 Carter and to Thor's Echo in the G1 DeFrancis. Attila's Storm, the early leader in the last two BC Sprints, held well in his first start since March and Commentator was beaten only 3 1/2 lengths after breaking last and rushing up to duel.
--Ginger Punch ($4.50) is clearly no slouch, but is she really as dominant a force in the older-filly division as her five-length romp in the First Flight last time out and her six-length runaway here in the Go For wand might suggest? In the First Flight she found her way to the lead after a very soft opening half-mile and cruised home. Here, she caught a better field but it looked like no one else ran her best race: Miss Shop appeared to be struggling with the track, Teammate faded badly, and Ermine was virtually eased late finishing last as the 8-5 second choice.
The attendance of 29,216 may seem light for such a heavily-promoted day, and was smaller than the opoening-day turnout, but the July weekend is always that way before the August vacationers arrive, and there was nothing light about the $27.7 million total handle. That figure would probably have been higher if not for all the bombs early on the card. The longest lines at the track Saturday were at neither the beer nor betting lines but at the ATM's. Also, locals planning to attend only one day this weekend may have been saving themselves for a peek at the Kentucky Derby winner tomorrow later today in the Jim Dandy.
Posted by Steven Crist Jul 29, 2007 1:33:19 AM | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
horsemens_cafe says:
If it would have been Street Sense or another horse considered to be among the "elite" of horse racing, would there even have been a question? Where is the retraction which matches the magnitude of the original question casting a light on the achievement? The thing to keep in mind is that it didn't appear to take much out of him. He is in condition, in control, and it was a relatively easy victory.
Posted by horsemen's cafe Jul 31, 2007 10:34:45 AM
rick_k says:
Regardless of the timer issue, which would be nice for handicapping reasons to resolve, Lawyer Ron put in a hell of a race, and thus is very deserving of the purse he won. Good luck to him in the future races he runs, whether it's still at Saratoga (Woodward?) or anywhere else. I honestly think the Whitney should be upgraded and made into Saratoga's second $1 million purse race of the season. Then maybe it will get the respect it truly deserves.
Congrats to the connections of Lawyer Ron and congrats to the bettors who had him.
Posted by Rick_k Jul 30, 2007 8:23:51 PM
rsdcpa says:
Hi Steve,
I am really enjoying this blog. Can I suggest a rational approach to the Whitney speed (and speed figure) question? Let NYRA analyze the race via their real-time tape, then officially report exactly what they did to prepare the track between the 9th and 10th races? Whatever they did had to have been witnessed by everyone in the grandstand. I am not knowledgeable in track maintenance, but down in Kentucky, from what I have seen they just use H2O followed by harrowing. Even on Kentucky Derby day, any goosing up happens before race 1, right? My question is this, if the time is good, and the track was prepped as usual before the Whitney, then does Lawyer Ron get the 128? Seems logical. Could the goosing up happen not with the track, but with the H----? Thank you for your comments. I always read what you and the other Steve have to say.
Posted by rsdcpa Jul 30, 2007 6:28:34 PM
mitch_kahn says:
I am a bit surprised that no one has commented on how much better My Typhoon is as a 5 year old. Mott has the jock using her speed in a more tactical way, and its clear from the Diana that she can lay off cheap speed before making her move.
Posted by Mitch Kahn Jul 30, 2007 6:20:13 PM
lucky says:
Hey Jerry, when you combine knowledge and class you get results. I followed L.R., during his 3 Y.O. season also. Like you I was thrilled to watch him win the Whitney.
Posted by LUCKY Jul 30, 2007 6:10:34 PM
gracieandbuck says:
I have always been a fan of Lawyer Ron and am glad to see him back on form. Why can't you just say he ran a terrific, exciting race and have done with it? It was a grade 1 and look at the field he beat! I look forward to his future races. Hope it's more of the same.
Posted by gracieandbuck Jul 30, 2007 5:59:05 PM
mitch_kahn says:
Steve:
Track records are made to be broken and its been a long time for this one. Hats off to Lawyer Ron who cost me the Pick 4. He ran his eyeballs out on the outside and if his time holds up, it is a well earned TR. But let's not make more of a deal than warranted. I've seen cheap claimers run in near TR times at numerous tracks and anyway, time only really matters when you are in jail!
Posted by Mitch Kahn Jul 30, 2007 5:57:51 PM
rob says:
If I had recorded the race on my computer, I would have done a time mark as they hit the wire right after the start, and then at the end, and figured the time using a frame count.
Posted by rob Jul 30, 2007 5:50:45 PM
jerry_greve says:
I HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING LAWYER RON SINCE HIS OAKLAWN DAYS,AND WAS THRILLED BY HIS PERFORMANCE IN THE WHITNEY.PLETCHER FINALLY REALIZES HE IS 1/1/4 MILE RUNNER.WATCH HIM IN THE CLASSIC.I WAS ALSO HAPPY TO CASH MY ACROSS THE BOARD TICKET.
Posted by JERRY GREVE Jul 30, 2007 5:37:24 PM
walker says:
Looks to me like the final time is correct. I also think that nothing was done to the track before the Whitney. WB's pace set up a fast time, where in the preceding race..the pace was much slower. I would think that the Steves' would check things out a little better before posting.
Posted by walker Jul 30, 2007 3:59:40 PM
lawyer_ron_fan says:
I meant to add, I was at Saratoga on Saturday. I don't know how they goose a racetrack. Before the Vanderbilt, the dirt track was sealed (I assumed to squeeze more water out of it from the morning's deluge), then the harrows went around clockwise. Other than that they harrowed it normally. So if this is what souped it up, it should have affected the Vanderbilt and the Go for Wand also. But I am ignorant of these things so I can't say.
Posted by Lawyer Ron Fan Jul 30, 2007 1:18:17 PM
lawyer_ron_fan says:
It doesn't work to compare Lawyer Ron's race to other races that day, or to his previous races. I agree that some appear to be invested in finding an error in the Whitney time, they can't believe Lawyer Ron had it in him. Well I have always believed he had it in him. He could never run big figures in Arkansas because no one does on that deep track. His problem with rating and bad racing luck worked against him his last few starts. This was simply the first time it all came together. Of course the Beyer will be higher than those races where he didn't rate and had trouble. This was the first time we have seen what Lawyer Ron is capable of. He might not ever do it again, but he did it for real this once. If they did goose the track don't penalize the horse unless you go back and penalize every other horse who ran well on a souped up track. Assuming the time is accurate, as most seem to indicate it is, the high Beyer deserves to stand.
Posted by Lawyer Ron Fan Jul 30, 2007 1:11:08 PM
pagano98 says:
It looks like a legitimate track record. Speed held up good in the race because the front runners were crawling early with a 23 4/5 first quarter fraction and speed it up to 1:10 1/5 three quarter fraction. These caliber of horses are capable of running that fast with a slow first quarter. Also, compared to the video of Go for Wand the horses in the Whitney were moving faster. Give Lawyer Ron his due Beyer or not post it and use it at all for everybody.
Posted by Pagano98 Jul 30, 2007 12:05:54 PM
tom_koski says:
I had both TVG and ABC's race coverage on televisions right next to me Saturday, and for reasons I can't even guess at, all the races ABC showed, including the Whitney, started several seconds after the horses left the gate on the TVG feed. I think the time is not correct, and perhaps this helps explain why timing the ABC re-run apparently yields a different result than TVG's. ABC did not show the race life, but several seconds delayed. Perhaps the tape speed was responsible?
Posted by Tom Koski Jul 30, 2007 11:45:10 AM
jim says:
the time is right. if you want to analyze the time accurately, time ginger punch's win. she is 2 1/2 seconds slower timing both races. so if the whitney time is bad so is the wand's time. just a great performance. i understand that timing off the replay is inaccurate, but it should be accurate comparing the time differences between the two races. i go 1:49 3/5 for ron and 152.28 seconds for ginger punch
Posted by jim Jul 30, 2007 10:55:17 AM
rocky_road says:
I HAVE BEEN BETTING HORSES FOR 50 YRS.IF ANYBODY BELIEVES ALL THAT SPEED BALONEY ALL YOU WILL BE IS A CHAUK PLAYER.THE TRAINERS HAVE GONE HIGH TECH.@THE TRACKS ARE LEFT BEHIND WONDERING.IF I HAD ANY BRAINS I SHOULD BET PLETCHERS HORSES ALL THE TIME.LR WAS THE BEST THAT DAY.TRAINERS USE SMARTS NOT THE DRF TO WIN MONEY!
Posted by ROCKY ROAD Jul 30, 2007 10:17:14 AM
joe_p says:
I was at the track on Saturday
and in an earlier race the first quarter was posted in 21.74 seconds and the half mile in 47 and change. The quarter time was so out of whack that Tom Durkin paused and didn't announce it.
Posted by Joe P. Jul 30, 2007 9:32:08 AM
eric says:
Steve,
If you think My Typhoon will be shaky at the 1 1/4 mile BC Filly & Mare Turf, what must you think given that this year's F&M Turf is at 1 3/8 miles (since MTH cannot accomodate 1 1/4 grass races)!?
Posted by Eric Jul 30, 2007 9:26:24 AM
gareth_flynn says:
Where does the timer start at Saratoga?
From timing the the broadband replay on the NYRA site twice, I got the race run from the gates opening to the finishing post in 1:49.82s and 1:49:96s. Splitting the difference gives me 1:49.89s
Timing from the gate to the finishing post the first time around twice gave me 3.29s and 3.14s. Splitting the difference gives me 3.22s.
So one full lap took 1:46.67s, which is almost exactly what the finishing time was *if the timer starts at the finishing post the first time around*.
Makes me wonder though - why on earth don't you start the timer from the gates over there?
Posted by Gareth Flynn Jul 30, 2007 8:47:31 AM
henry_vincent says:
If we question the time of Lawyerron then someone should be fired for inaccurate timeing. with todays technology no excuses for failure.
Posted by henry vincent Jul 30, 2007 7:29:26 AM
mh_adolphson says:
I believe the track was fast that day, but not fast enough to cause such a speed figure. It was a performance worth noting, but it wasn't anything above a 124. If I had to guess, I would put the performance at a 118-120. He ran 5 lengths (10+ points, basically) away from horses that were finishing up at about a 105-108 speed figure. A breakout, indeed, but not a Ghostzapper, Candy Ride, Gentleman, Will's Way or Formal Gold-type performance. I think he will be spoken of in the division, but will have to expand upon this newfound professionalism to become the best. Everyone's hoping for a new star, as always...
Posted by M.H. Adolphson Jul 30, 2007 4:08:17 AM
stanley_mckenzie says:
The lawyer always ran fast track times, and with a fast pace setter, a great trainer, a great racetrack, and a great race, why would any racehorse lover want him to do less!! WE finally get something great in american racing to be proud of; WE turn on DRC and read this ungreatful article! WE THE FANS are sick and tired of you UNGREATFUL RACING CRITICS!!!!
Posted by stanley mckenzie Jul 30, 2007 3:18:19 AM
jeremy_blackman says:
I think Lawyer ron is a monster! He beat an incredible g1 field at a distance nobody thought he could get, and he did it easy. I think he deserves a huge beyer, 120+.
Posted by Jeremy Blackman Jul 30, 2007 1:03:02 AM
beyerbeware says:
I THINK LOOK AT FLASHY BULL'S RACE AT PIMLICO FOR THE MILE AND AN EIGTH. LOOK AT THE FRACTIONS AND TIME THERE. SATURDAY AN OBVIOUS BOUNCE. PLUS BOTH LAWYER RON AND FLASHY BULL RAN AGAINST BARBARO. THEY WERE A GOOD GROUP 3 YEAR OLDS LAST YEAR.PLUS LAWYER RON WON BY 5 LENGHTS. THATS WHAT I THINK.
Posted by beyerbeware Jul 30, 2007 12:29:53 AM
ron_heller says:
Josh, you mention the Virginia Derby. TP wasn't overtly crafty but he did have an improving 3 year old on turf exhibiting inside AND outside fractions @ 23 and 2/5ths with a race and tuneup works from Monmouth (an unexplicable angle this time of year) and picking up TOP jockey at the meet. Red Giant 'figured' even at
$ 76.00 mutual in my eyes.Certainly a shot at the price. AND Lawyer Ron had similar picture with huge inside move last race and Cordero/Velasquez having first TP choice in most cases.
Posted by Ron Heller Jul 29, 2007 11:37:40 PM
tony_kelso says:
I thought Street Sense ran a very nice race today in the Jim Dandy, especially considering the Travers (and revenge against Curlin et. al.) was/is the REAL target. I also liked that Street Sense was in a "handy" position throughout the race - he showed another dimension.
Posted by Tony Kelso Jul 29, 2007 10:21:11 PM
john says:
A great "Whitney" for sure for "Lawyer Ron." However, I replayed the "TVG" playing of the race three times and each were in the 1:49+ race times. Also, I timed two other Saratoga races on Saturday for comparison, and I came within 20/100 of the posted time. NYRA definitely needs to review and give a corrected time, but obviously the results will still be the same. Great race "Lawyer Ron"!
Posted by John Jul 29, 2007 10:18:44 PM
sean_n says:
I timed the Whitney twice and was within .08 and .12 seconds of the official time each time. It was tough to get a good mile time off of the video (from Race Replays website) but I thought it was around 1:35. This means that Lawyer Ron may have come home in under 12 seconds for the final eighth! I believe it; he absolutely exploded down the lane. In the Go for Wand, I had Ginger Punch at around 1:37 and change for the mile, so she flew home too (expected due to the slower mile time).
The six furlong time is impossible to time off the video as the the horses were obscurred behind the giant screens. However, I never had a six furlong time below 1:11. Steve, I think you may have a point there. Again this is pure guess work as I could not see the 3 furlong pole.
If the final time is correct, which I think it is, Lawyer Ron ran the last half of the race faster than the first half of the race. Wow!
Posted by Sean N Jul 29, 2007 9:55:56 PM
tom says:
Who cares what Beyer (or whoever does his ""figures"" for him) comes up with for a number? They mean nothing to me, because I think they are a joke!! If they were so "GREAT", why does he print them in the DRF for nothing??
Posted by tom Jul 29, 2007 9:01:52 PM
dave says:
I also timed a Tivo capture of the race and came up with 1:46.6. I also timed to the 3f pole - which ABC's crazy camera angles actually capture pretty well - and got 1:10.3, matching the race 3/4 timing.
I also timed the Go for Wand using the same approach and matched the official time.
So I agree with the others that the times were legit.
So if the alternate theory is true - that the track super somehow goosed the track between races - can someone explain to me how this big a difference is made using only a water truck and a furrowing attachment?
I can understand tracks being goosed with graders to remove some of the dirt, and by sealers to compress the dirt. I trust neither was used between races.
It's not that I'm against speed figures. On average, they're a very good tool. But sometimes they just don't make a whole lot of sense, and I get weary with the "blame the track" excuse. Herd animals just do odd things sometimes.
Posted by Dave Jul 29, 2007 8:34:19 PM
maryg says:
It's abouttime Lawyer Ron got to show his stuff. He needed to learn how to settle and rate, his potential is finally being realized. Let's see how fast he can really go. He loves it and that's what it's all about.
Posted by maryg Jul 29, 2007 8:24:01 PM
lucky says:
Sounds like all these people that are complaining about Lawyer Ron's time, did not have a single penny bet on him, because if you did, you probably wouldn't be concerned about the time of the race. The owners of the horse made a trainer switch that has obviously turned out to be benefecial to them and the horse. Todd Pletcher stated in his post race comments that he has been working with the horse in trying to get him to relax. Pletcher, once again has shown the betting public that he is one of the elite trainers in the industry. Johnny V., knows how fast the horse really ran, maybe you all should ask him. GIVE CREDIT WHEN CREDIT IS DUE AND STOP COMPLAINING WHEN YOU CAN'T CASH A TICKET AT THE WINDOW BECAUSE YOU ARE TOO IGNORANT AT HANDICAPPING.
Posted by LUCKY Jul 29, 2007 8:20:19 PM
db_in_los_angeles says:
When will Saratoga and all tracks get that saddle-cloth electronic tracking system? That should make these debates obselete.
Posted by DB in Los Angeles Jul 29, 2007 6:33:30 PM
josh says:
Just b/c Pletcher ran 3 horses didn't give Lawyer Ron an advantage in my opinion. Th man has a lot of good horses, and there are only so many grade 1's to run in. He had legitimate contenders in what was a wide open race. Just look at the Virginia Derby for an example. Also, sometimes owners will push a trainer to run their horse in a certain race, even if a trainer wants to run in another spot....
Posted by Josh Jul 29, 2007 6:18:39 PM
sal says:
I gave Lawyer Ron a 115 Beyer style figure and Ginger Punch a 91. Here is my reasoning for doing so.
I realize a 115 for LR is a 7 point jump-up from his 108 in the Salvator Mile.
However, there were eight dirt races run that day at Monmouth, six of which won in wire-to-wire fashion. Including a 5.75 length victory by a 30/1 shot in a monstrous performance. As well as Gottcha Gold's wire-to-wire upset of 1/9 shot Lawyer Ron.
Both of the two pacesetters who failed to go wire-to-wire that day hit the board. One of which at 43/1 odds.
Lawyer Ron ran his 108 against the grain of a rare truly speed-biased track.
If you give Lawyer Ron a 115, you must give Wanderin Boy a 107. He has run figures of 103, 107, 103, 105, 106, 111, and 113 respectively, in each of the last seven times he's made the early lead. That averages out to a 106.86
3rd place finisher Diamond Stripes would get a 106. Which fits with the 104-105-106-105 numbers he'd earned in each of his last four races.
4th place finisher Fairbanks would get the same 103 he ran last out.
Using the same variant, Ginger Punch gets a 91 Beyer for her Go For Wand win. Her two big recent figs both came with once-in-a-lifetime trips. She also had never won around two turns before yesterday, and left the impression of a one-turn miler type.
Miss Shop would get an 82 for running 2nd. She ran an 80 last time out---that with the aid of a much more favorable pace setup than she had yesterday.
Teammate would earn a 79 for 3rd. 15 points higher than her last-out figure. Albeit, she had a much better trip than last out.
I have no explanation as to why the two Prairie Meadows shippers and Ermine ran so poorly.
I realize horseplayers can get themselves in a lot of trouble when they factor a lot of subjective things into making figures. Mistakes can compound themselves. I just believe the Go For Wand was a dreadful race.
Posted by Sal Jul 29, 2007 4:40:00 PM
mcags says:
Mulitple horses in a race is criminal for a trainer? Any of those three could have won the race and I believe Pletcher fells that same and would not entered each of the horses if he did not think he had a shot with each one. Look at Red Giant in the Virginia Derby. I guess the owner of Red Giant was o.k. with Circular Quay in the race as he collected on the $1 million purse. Good owners buy good horse and have them trained by good trainers. If there is a problem handicapping the race then you should sit on the sideline. At such a high level of racing there is no such thing as a "sumplementary payoff". These owners make choices and I am sure Todd Pletcher would not complement his position as a professional.
Posted by mcags Jul 29, 2007 3:54:36 PM
steve_davidowitz says:
I finally got a look at the race in real time from a friend's TIVO of the ABC broadcast. The clockings I got this time were: 1:46.71; 1:46.74; and 1:46.70. Would therefore seem that the clocking is correct and something relatively drastic was done to change the track.
Regards/SteveD
Posted by Steve Davidowitz Jul 29, 2007 3:19:32 PM
steven_crist says:
Silver Charm:
My initial post on the Whitney clocking here on the blog page went up around 2 a.m. and that's what Steve D and others were responding to well before DRF put it up as a linked headline on the DRF homepage at 9:17 a.m. I'm not clear on why only the date and not the time I post doesn't appear at the bottom of my posts the way it does at the bottom of everyone's comments.
Posted by Steven Crist Jul 29, 2007 3:10:53 PM
joseph_close says:
Yes! Lawyer Ron ran a teerific race, but only because Todd Plechter was allowed to set up the race by running three horses, to run so that his best horse would have a better chance of winning.What is wrong with some of the owners of his other two horses. Are they whacky to have a trainer like this, or are they getting a supplemetry payoff. I still say that horse racing officials should look into the systym of a trainer running more than one horse, without they being an entry. It's criminal and unjust to the betting public that this goes on. I for one will never bet on any race where a trainer enters more than one horse without them being posted as an entry. Like I said previously. It's criminal and unjust to the Betting public.
Posted by Joseph Close Jul 29, 2007 2:35:28 PM
kate says:
The time's legit. Many of us have hand timed it from the coverage of the race multiple times and come within a shade (due to human rather than machine timing) of the clocking every time.
About Lawyer Ron not being Ghostzapper, not even Ghostzapper was Ghostzapper. Between him and Bernardini, the hype just boggles the mind. Neither one of them are The Bid, neither are Dr. Fager, Affirmed. They're just horses that could've been great--GZ was too fragile to keep the speed going in more starts per year, Bernardini never got his chance at 4 and Invasor took him at 3. I say Lawyer Ron definitely impressed and shouldn't get below 120. That would be ridiculous. If he earned a high fig, give it to him. 128 seems fantastical even for his fantastic performance so split the difference, 124 and call it a day. If Bernardini had turned in this performance, they'd give him something approaching that 128--perhaps Lawyer Ron's working class vibe is leading to a certain 'well that can't be' here. His pre-Derby form indicated a horse with this ability. He's simply back on form and he didn't have to be at Oaklawn to do it. He's being treated like he wore blue jeans to a black tie dinner. He's good and he earned it and if he never gets that fig again, it's not the end of the world. He felt good that day.
Posted by Kate Jul 29, 2007 2:32:32 PM
silver_charm says:
Steve,
While you and others are reviewing the clocking of the Whitney could you also review the clocking of your own story and the following rebuttal posts.
Steve Crist:7/29/07-9:17AM
Rebuttals
Steve Davidowitz:7/29/07-4:08AM
toddsincharge:7/29/07-7:52AM
AJV:7/29/07-8:48AM
No wonder Davidowitz pick so many winners as he claims in his book. He appears to have telepathic powers in the middle of the night.
Posted by Silver Charm Jul 29, 2007 2:31:23 PM
sal says:
I hand timed the Whitney twice and got the correct final time on each occasion.
I did the same thing in the Go For Wand and also got the correct final time.
In multiple clockings of each race, I came within 0.27 seconds of having every split correct. That tells me the fractional times are accurate as well.
To come away with 1:48 and change clockings, as Mr. Davidowitz did, I believe you have to start timing just after the gates open and before horses reach the finish line.
Basically, getting the final time plus run-up.
Posted by Sal Jul 29, 2007 2:25:09 PM
silver_charm says:
TVG ran a bit of a side-by-side comparison between this Whitney and the one by Left Bank seeming to reasonably confirm the time.
Actually a half in 47.37 for a race that appeared to be speed laden seems more out of whack than three-quarters in 1:10.28.
Once the investigation is completed there will be two groups of people with some explaining to do.
If the time is wrong then NYRA chairman Steve Duncker will need to explain to fans and a National Television audience why the Track Record they were told they had witnessed was bogus.
If the time is correct then the Track Superintendant needs to explain why he and his crew felt compelled to "goose the track" before the Big Race.
Posted by Silver Charm Jul 29, 2007 2:14:14 PM
george_halbert says:
Why can NYRA not clean up Saratoga's Paddock? It's almost impossible for fans to get to the paddock fence. It's ridiculous that they allow chairs, etc. inside the paddock. Why not put televisions on the other side of the street in the parking area or inside of the Okalahoma training track to create more room inside the paddock area? The fans watching racing inside of the paddock do not watch the live races anyway? PLEASE FIX THIS ISSUE. At the very least, make fire lanes or areas where people are not allowed to set up shop making it impossible for people to view the horses in the paddock.
Posted by George Halbert Jul 29, 2007 1:59:33 PM
m_cags says:
Obviously the best horse won the race in a very competitive field. Andy Beyer didn't pick Lawyer Ron and may be upset at the outcome. Either way looking at the pre race prices, not many people expected Lawyer Ron to run like he did, except maybe Pletcher. The time is secondary to the race itself and the outstanding achievement by Lawyer Ron and the entire Pletcher team.
Posted by M Cags Jul 29, 2007 1:21:33 PM
imran says:
I 100% agree with you and believe that the clock malfunctioned right from the get-go. Maybe your further research in collboration with NYRA could bring out some details on how a clock malfunctioned could've become possible?
Posted by Imran Jul 29, 2007 1:18:13 PM
lady_slew says:
Adam: The track employees are not able to fix or open to refill the ATM's. Only the bank can do that; it's their money not the track's. So complain to the bank that they aren't servicing their ATM's on the weekends. The track can do nothing but complain too.
Posted by Lady Slew Jul 29, 2007 12:54:18 PM
steve_davidowitz says:
After Alan Klayman's report of the race clocking off the ABC Video Tape that he sdubmitted to this blog a few hours ago, I tried to time the race again off the NYRA website and the streaming video quality was poor. Would not trust my own previous clocking off that site. Strongly reitterate suggestion to NYRA to time this race with calibrated timing device off their in-house, real time, video replays). As others have suggested, the NYRA should do this as soon as possible.
Regards/Steve Davidowitz
Posted by Steve Davidowitz Jul 29, 2007 12:52:11 PM
toddsincharge says:
Interesting discussion about Street Sense being "cranked up".
I liked his Tampa race. It was only 6 Beyer points below his gold rail BC win.
AGS had a race before the matchup, and he might wind up as one of the 3 best of this crop.
Posted by toddsincharge Jul 29, 2007 12:46:23 PM
gc_baer says:
The time may or may not be correct - it at first seemed implausable to me after Ginger Punchs'Go For Wand time and Lawyer Ron's past performances. However, I watch/bet approximately 50 races a day 4-6 times a week at my local simulcast facility and 80% of the time the results are implausable based on logical handicapping from the DRF.I know, maybe I'm a bad handicapper, but I have become bad over 45 years of following the races. Accurate times aside my handicapping would be aided much more by a comment line in DRF that informed me horse sore when put in gate didn't try, jockey quit/didn't try, horse used pharmecutical assistance. With this kind of information maybe my success rate could approximate the win percentages (25-45%)of the new breed of super trainer inundating the sport. Besides time's only relevant in prison.
Posted by G.C. Baer Jul 29, 2007 12:35:38 PM
About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
