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Crist Blog | September 24, 2007
I, Idiot
Usually, if you don't like a 4-1 shot who wins, no big deal. When it's the only horse you miss in a pick-six, and in a race where you went five deep, you feel like a pretty big idiot.
And that about sums up my Sunday at Belmont, where a two-day carry of $223k attracted a fresh pool of $851k. I ended up with five stinkin' consos at $150.50 each instead of the $21,954 I would have gotten had Giveityourbestshot ($10.40) been one of my five horses in the third leg. Instead I ran 2-3-4-5-6, though there was nothing tough about my beat: The winner not only won by 3 lengths but was even more the best than that, considering that he blew the turn and was drawing away while racing very wide.
So why didn't I like him, at least enough to include him as one of five? Other than the fact that I am simply a rotten handicapper of turf sprints, my theory was that Giveityourbestshot had backed up late in all of his prior starts and faced a ton of early competition in this speed-packed field. I thought it more likely that one of the more lightly-race entrants would improve or take to the turf than that Giveityourbest shot could survive an early duel and win the war. A bad miscalculation.
A few other points of interest on the Sunday card:
*Race 2: Blowing Kisses, a second-time starter for Michael Matz, ran down favored Psycho D J and then held of Melissa Jo to win this 2-year-old filly maiden-special in 1:04.92. Blowing Kisses is a daughter of Vindication and a half-sister to Pussycat Doll.
*Race 3: Trainer Barclay Tagg was quoted by David Grening in Sunday's DRF saying that Big Truck could be his best 2-year-old. Most handicappers would rate his Futurity winner, Tale of Ekati, much higher both before and after Big Truck ran his record to 2-for-2 here winning the Bongard Stakes for New York-breds. Big Truck, sent off at 1-to-5 off a blowout Saratoga debut, needed most of the Bongard's seven furlongs to put away second-choice Spanky Fischbein, finally pulling clear late to win by two lengths in 1:23.64. That translated to a Beyer Speed Figure of 87 -- as compared to Tale of Ekati's 94 for winning the Futurity in 1:22.31 over a quicker track Sept. 15.
*Race 8: Barancella, the 6-year-old Acatenango mare who has been second in three G1 stakes, made a winning return in her first start since April when she ran down Jade Queen in the final yards to win the $76k Fairway Flyer at 11 furlongs. Barancella could be headed for a third try at the E. P. Taylor, where she was beaten half a length two years ago and ran second by a length to Arravale last year.
*Race 9: Expect the End, a 13 1/2-length winner of the Jena Jena at Saratoga last time out, squared off here with Meriwether Jessica, a 12 1/2-length winner of her debut, in the Gimma Stakes, the 2-year-old filly statebred companion to the Bongard for colts. The two put on a rousing show dueling around the track, with Expect the End taking the advantage in upper stretch but Meriwether Jessica coming back at her on the inside and falling just a nose short of rerallying to win. The time was 1:24.31, good for a Beyer of 78. Expect the End is trained by Rick Dutrow, who also trains the statebred juvenile-miss division's other leader, 2-for-2 By the Light.
*Race 10: For the second time this week, a 99-1 shot on the toteboard landed a piece of the last-race superfecta. Lats Wednesday it was Mesa Nova running third at 145-1, setting up a super payoff of $192k for $2 on which only one winning $1 ticket was sold. Here it was first-timer Sweet Baby Blue lasting for fourth at 102-1 to set up a $19k payoff underneath the third, fourth and first betting choices.
--Racing resumes at Belmont Wednesday and next weekend is a stakes festival. The Saturday card includes the G1 Flower Bowl and G2 Kelso, while Sunday's "Breeders' Cup Challenge" consists of four Grade 1's: The Jockey Club Gold Cup, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Beldame and Vosburgh.
Posted by Steven Crist Sep 24, 2007 1:29:31 AM | Permalink
Keywords: Pick Six, Idiot, Tagg, Big Truck, Barancella, Expect the End
Comments
el says:
Current generally available industry odds in Dublin and London as of Wednesday A.M.
courtesy of www.eurohorse.co.uk
Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe - Sunday October 7, 2007
Authorized 6/4, Soldier Of Fortune 3, Dylan Thomas 5/1, Zampezi Sun 5/1, Mandesha 12/1, Saddex 20/1, Scorpion 25/1, Ask 25/1, Passage of Time 25/1, Poet Laureate 25/1, Youmzain 33/1, Septimus 33/1, Getaway 33/1
Breeders' Cup Classic 2007:
Lawyer Ron 3/1 (from 7/2), Street Sense 5/1, Any Given Saturday 5/1, Curlin 7/1, Hard Spun 16/1, George Washington 16/1, Asiatic Boy 16/1, Student Council 20/1, Awesome Gem 20/1, Tiago 33/1, Diamond Stripes 33/1, Surf Cat 33/1, Diamond Stripes 33/1, Lava Man 33/1, Political Force
Posted by E/L Sep 25, 2007 10:45:43 PM
wpb says:
Steve,
I'd be interested to see your pick 6 ticket(A-B-C) breakdowns for your plays on the Sunday card - - if possible.
Posted by WPB Sep 25, 2007 8:24:59 PM
josephat says:
I share your pain after Sunday's pick 6. I was lucky enough to match the first three legs, (only reason I had the leg you missed was K.D. on the turf in a leg I was x3)but singled Bold Hawk and Jessica like a completed idiot. Fortunately, after I realized my blunder, I was able to single the right horses in the late pick 4 and recover my loses on the pick 6 and a little more. By the way, the $5 pick 4 was nice considering the two middle race's singles.
Posted by josephat Sep 24, 2007 11:29:53 PM
yuwipi says:
Gee, when I saw three favs, 2 third choices, and a fifth choice I thought the Persaud/Chavez horse would be the one that got away if you didn't come up with the 20+k. As a fan who doesn't play the P6 for financial reasons (not enough bucks to get much of a bang) I look forward to hearing your thought process regarding the bet. Take 'em down next time.
Posted by yuwipi Sep 24, 2007 6:29:37 PM
david says:
Steve - what do you think NY Racing (downstate) will look like in 10-15 years with respect to venues, purse size, quality of racing, attendance etc...
Posted by David Sep 24, 2007 2:50:12 PM
matt_m says:
"In Saratoga, N.Y., county court last Monday, judge Jerry Scarano dismissed all charges against Braulio Baeza and Mario Sclafani, the two former clerks of the scales who had been charged with 291 felony counts for supposedly letting jockeys ride at incorrect weights. It was the correct conclusion to an unfounded case that wrecked two people's lives and careers. The only thing wrong with the decision was that its technical basis spared the state attorney general's office from further censure and embarrassment for a malicious and inept prosecution."
Man did this Spitzer have the crowd fooled for a while,huh (myself included). When he was first appointed AG, he seemed like a straight-shooter.
In reality, he has no honor or as my dad would say " he is a dishonorable man... he has no dignity."
Posted by Matt M. Sep 24, 2007 2:16:51 PM
aj says:
I wondered the same thing as T. Waits as to why they would have the biggest day of Belmont's fall meet on a Sunday? This is what I have come up with, its is all about the TV ratings.
Since ESPN is carrying "Breeders' Cup Challenge Day" they arent going to put horse racing, their latest investment, up against college football, because horse racing would get crushed in the TV ratings. I don't like to admit it but sadly it is the truth. ESPN isn't going to forfeit quarenteed rating for a longshot like horse racing.
Thus, they hold it on the next most logical day, Sunday. Though they are still going up against football, they aren't forfeiting ratings to air it. I am not an expert but I hope evening going up against pro football that "Breeders' Cup Challenge Day" would beat out what they would normally show on Sunday afternoons. Which, yesterday by the way, was Women's Bowling.
Posted by AJ Sep 24, 2007 2:00:01 PM
ejxd2 says:
Arazi: Why did the chance of a carryover in the pick 6 pool prompt you to place a win wager?
Posted by EJXD2 Sep 24, 2007 12:54:39 PM
teresa says:
Jeff: the four races on Sunday are going to be broadcast on ESPN, so I wonder if it's a TV thing. I assume that ESPN Saturdays are committed to college football.
Posted by Teresa Sep 24, 2007 12:53:05 PM
samg says:
Missing a 4-1 in a turf sprint doesn`t make you an idiot.Of course playing a pick 6 with a turf sprint in the sequence is kind of like playing a pick 5 and rolling the dice for the 6th leg.I felt kind of stupid for playing a pick 4 with 2 sprints in it a while back,I hit both races but not on the same ticket,doh.Got lucky yesterday singling the winner of the turf sprint in the pick 4 at Delaware yesterday.$177 for a 3-1 2-5 a 6-1 who I thought was an overlay and a 7-10,felt like stealing.
Posted by SamG Sep 24, 2007 12:50:05 PM
pat says:
Personally, I miss the original Breeders' Cup preview cards when they'd string together like 6 major Grade 1's on a single card. Those days actually felt special and had enough top racing that people would specifically come out to the track for them. Now they've split up the major races into a couple of days or a couple of weekends and those days feel like real strong cards - but not something that's actually going to lure me to the track.
I'd love to see them go back to putting the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Beldame, Champage, Frizette, Turf Classic, and Vosburgh all on the same card like they originally did in the early-mid 90s.
Posted by Pat Sep 24, 2007 11:48:20 AM
adelphidude says:
Your stories are beautiful. I feel your pain with the Pick 6, as I have been there too many times to think about. One particularly painful experience occurred with a $30,000 carryover at Ellis Park three years ago. I was 5 for 5 with some nice prices and I had three horses in the last leg. Left out Bejarano on a first time lasix MDN CLMer who was the second favorite (Bejarano was destroying Kentucky tracks at the time). He nipped me at the wire, coming up the rail. Extremely close photo. No winners in the PICK 6.
Posted by Adelphidude Sep 24, 2007 11:30:34 AM
jeff says:
Steven,
Absolutely agree with you and most likely many followers regarding Big Truck. I am inquired to know why Barclay believes he is his best 2 year old?
For one, Ramon Dominguez was all over him the last 3 furlongs of the race. (Big Truck switched leads 3 times during the course as well) All in which you would expect somewhat of a showing or display for the supposed Tag great. Unfortunately his final time of 1:23.6 was nothing to write home about.
Is it just me or does his stride look as though he'd like the turf? He has high leg action to indicate so. I would have to say Tale of Ekati has a much more efficient way of going.
One further note, how impressive is this 1st crop of Hook and Ladder 2 year olds! I see a lot of value there his for $6k stud fee. Spanky Fischbein the beaten 2nd in the Bertram F. Bongard Stakes. 20 Runners / 6 Winners. 3 Stakes Horses with 1 Stakes Winner.
Posted by Jeff Sep 24, 2007 10:49:45 AM
t_waits says:
What's the thinking behind running a quartet of Breeder's Cup prep Grade 1 stakes on Sunday? There can be no doubt that attendance will be horrendous no matter what, so please tell me the rationale isn't: ~7,500 (bodies on-track on Saturday) + ~ 7,500 (""" Sunday) = ~15,000 (""" for the entire weekend if the stakes are run on Sunday), and that's better than what would otherwise be something like: ~7,500 bodies on Saturday + ~5,000 on Sunday = ~12,000.
Posted by T. Waits Sep 24, 2007 8:56:17 AM
arazi says:
In race 10, did you notice that should either #8 (Greely's Girl) or #9 (Sweet Baby Blue) had won, pick six would've been carried over to Wednesday?
That possibility alone convinced me to put $2 to win on Sweet Baby Blue just for the heck of it. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't but it sure was a lot of fun.
Posted by Arazi Sep 24, 2007 7:37:47 AM
dennis says:
Steve,
Do you have any info on the ten cent supers at Belmont? I can't bet them on NYRA's site.
Posted by Dennis Sep 24, 2007 2:10:45 AM
Comments to this entry are closed.
About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He recently released an instructional DVD titled "Exotic Tickets," and is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
