Crist Blog | October 10, 2007
17 Shopping Days
With 17 days until the main events, the European bookmakers have the BC Classic as a four-way pick 'em among Any Given Saturday, Curlin, Lawyer Ron and Street Sense; Dylan Thomas a heavy favorite in the BC Turf; and Euros George Washington, Ramonti and Excellent Art the three favorites in the BC Mile.
Here are the Wednesday-morning antepost odds from William Hill for the six non-juvenile races on Oct. 27:
Breeders Cup Classic:
5-1 Any Given Saturday, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Street Sense
10-1 Hard Spun
14-1 George Washington
16-1 Asiatic Boy, Student Council, Tiago
20-1 Magna, Graduate, Master Command
25-1 Awesome Gem, Diamond Stripes, Lewis Michael, Political Force, Spring At Last
33-1 Circular Quay, Corinthian, Grasshopper, Sun King, Timer Reserve, Xchanger
50-1 AP Arrow, Dominican
Breeders Cup Mile:
7-2 George Washington, Ramonti
5-1 Excellent Art
6-1 After Market
7-1 Shakespeare
8-1 Duke of Marmalade, Kip Deville
10-1 Out Of Control
12-1 Remarkable News
14-1 Becrux, Shakis, Trippis Storm
20-1 Art Master, Galantas
Breeders Cup Turf:
7-4 Dylan Thomas
5-1 English Channel
6-1 Red Rocks
8-1 After Market, Better Talk Now, Sunriver
12-1 Grand Couturier
16-1 The Tin Man
20-1 Shamdinan
Breeders Cup Filly And Mare:
7-2 Nashoba's Key
7-1 Citronnade, Royal Highness, Wait A While
8-1 Passage Of Time
10-1 Honey Ryder, Lahudood, Precious Kitten
12-1 Lady Of Venice
14-1 Argentina, Vacare
20-1 My Typhoon
Breeders Cup Distaff:
11-2 Ginger Punch
6-1 Lears Princess
13-2 Hysterical Lady, Panty Raid
7-1 Lady Joanne, Tough Tiz's Sister, Unbridled Belle
8-1 Indian Vale
10-1 Teammate
11-1 Octave
14-1 Bear Now, Miss Shop
16-1 Balance
33-1 Talkin About Love
Breeders Cup Sprint:
9-2 Fabulous Strike, Midnight Lute
7-1 Smokey Stover
8-1 Idiot Proof, La Traviata
11-1 Benny The Bull, Greg's Gold, Kelly's Landing
14-1 High Finance, In Summation
16-1 Mach Ride, Talent Search, Attila's Storm
25-1 First Defence
It's unusual for no one in the three dirt races listed above to be shorter than 9-2. The race that is really out of character that way is the Distaff. Last year, when Fleet Indian was the 2.70-1 favorite, she was the longest-priced favorite in the 23-year history of the event. Unless there are a few defections, it seems unlikely anyone will be less than 4-1 this year, given that right now 10 different fillies and mares are listed between 11-2 and 11-1. Of course had Rags to Riches not been injured in the Gazelle, she would have been a strong favorite even off her defeat in that race.
--One of the things I was doing the last couple of days during my blogging hiatus was watching the final installments of the ESPN telecasts of this summer's World Series of Poker. The event took a hit this year thanks to the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act, which cut off many Americans from playing (and qualifying for the WSOP) online, and first place was worth $8.25 million as opposed to $12 million in 2006.
The biggest difference I noticed, though, was a massive shift in what constitutes acceptable behavior at the tables. While most of the oldtimers and the seasoned professionals continue to be polite and low-key, many of the younger players and amateurs behave like agitated baboons, screeching and running around the tables at each turn of a key card and taunting their opponents. If nothing else, they make horseplayers, even the ones who scream the loudest at television monitors, look like the restrained gentlemen of the gambling world.
--[Update]: William Hill released odds for the Oct. 27 juvenile races Wednesday afternoon:
Breeders' Cup Juvenile:
3-1 War Pass
11-2 Wicked Style
13-2 Dixie Chatter
10-1 Majestic Warrior, Pyro
11-1 Tale of Ekati
12-1 Cherokee Triangle, Salute the Sarge
14-1 Big City Man, Kodiac Kowboy, Slew's Tiznow, Texas Fever
16-1 Chitoz, Globetrotter, J Be K, Old Man Buck, Z Humor
25-1 Gold Coyote
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies:
5-2 Indian Blessing
13-2 Cry and Catch Me
8-1 Country Star, Izarra, Proud Spell
10-1 Irish Smoke
12-1 A To The Croft, Grace Anatomy, Smarty Deb, Spirit Awakening
14-1 Tasha's Miracle, Silk Ridge
16-1 Set Play
25-1 Backseat Ryhthm, Dreaming of Liz, Sunday Holiday
33-1 A Little Gem
It's surprising that Hill and other oddsmakers are still quoting odds on several horses who have been declared out of the Cup in widely-disseminated news stories, including Grasshopper in the Classic and Country Star and Irish Smoke in the Juvenile Fillies. [Update: According to Jim Covello, one of Irish Smoke's owners, she now "is going to run. The group changed its mind after Patrick[Biancone] made his comments [that she was 'out' of the BC.] After another one of our horses that had been training well ran up the track on the Keeneland poly on Sunday, the group decided that the poly was off because of the heat and it wasn't a true test of whether she could get two turns." ]
Posted by Steven Crist Oct 10, 2007 1:23:54 PM | Permalink
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Comments
john says:
Looking for your BC pic-6 play and results (your $5000 play) for OTB. Where can I find this?
Posted by John Oct 28, 2007 10:27:33 AM
mike_prendergast says:
MR. Crist
Isn't time Mr. Dave Gall was elected to the Hall of Fame.
7,000 + should say enough. I remember one time you wrote a piece endorsing his election, and I wish you'd do it again and get the public behind his election. Any one who saw him ride, knows he was one of the best.
Posted by Mike Prendergast Oct 21, 2007 10:29:11 AM
dan_c says:
Grace Happens made a move just like Street Sense as a 2yr old, she got left was last on the first turn, made a huge move on the backstretch to be 3rd , took the lead turning for home and lead to the final strides, just very very similiar in style and numbers. Also first route, I love 2nd route angle , I will take A to the Croft and Grace only in the start of the early pick 4 unless they draw 12,13,14 hole.
I got a great stat from "'Crushing the Cup" how many horses have won a breeders cup race that did not finish 1,2,3 or 3 lengths from winner, excluding the Arc. I will tell you less then 3. That is a great read for stats alone, The post position stats are great, you want inside the 10 hole in all races, especially 2 yr old filly, I recommend that book for everyone.
Does anyone else like Benny the Bull big price with a big beyer just like Thors echo, 2nd to a huge beyer. Also does anyone else not like Prussian, 2-1 and beat nothing, the horse he beat came to Keeneland and ran out?
Posted by dan c Oct 15, 2007 8:07:19 PM
mlnj says:
Catching up after a week of two away ...
I'm not trying to qualify for the WSOP but rather pick up a few bucks in some Sit n Gos. I never played on-line before this summer. The new law was a non-obstacle.
Posted by ml/nj Oct 14, 2007 10:04:38 PM
michael says:
Dylan Thomas LOVES firm going. He moves up many lengths on firm going. I was at the Arc and the surface was good to soft and O'Brien was very worried that Dylan would be effective over that surface. He wanted firm going.
Posted by Michael Oct 11, 2007 12:36:21 PM
alhattab says:
Mr. Wolfson- couldn't agree with you more. Give the local horse population a rest. At least NYRA went to more of a tiered purse structure to reflect the quality of horseflesh running at the time.
Posted by AlHattab Oct 11, 2007 12:04:51 PM
ejxd2 says:
Agree with dan_c 100% on the Juvenile Filly race. A to the Croft and Grace Happens ran well in defeat and any progress puts them in the winner's circle at generous odds.
Posted by EJXD2 Oct 11, 2007 9:36:31 AM
andyscoggin says:
dan c--
Why is Dylan Thomas going to break the ARC/BC turf jinx? He has never won on a firm turf and all you guys have been harping on how hard the turf is going to be at MTH!! Limiting your final leg to just Street Sense and Lawyer Ron seems very risky!
Posted by AndyScoggin Oct 11, 2007 9:24:41 AM
steve_wolfson_sr says:
Please NYRA do us all, horses especially, a favor and close down Jan. 1. Then, reopen in March like the good old days.
Speaking of good old days, I've been an avid reader of DRF since I was a boy, and it was Morning Telegraph; but it is beyond my comprehension why the Thursday national simulcast edition purchased at area's only local vendor excludes Keeneland. Please explain.
Posted by steve wolfson, sr. Oct 11, 2007 7:26:11 AM
samg says:
I still say Curlin is the logical favorite and if he`s not I may bet him even tho I like Street Sense more.Student Council 16-1?If he`s not at least 50-1 there will be overlays elsewhere.Lawyer Ron ran well enough in th JC gold cup to show he is an improved horse and not just a Saratoga special.The only true test of any horse running on the poly at Keeneland is wether they like the poly at Keenland.Nice to see Dylan Thomas where he belongs this year,at least our turf horses get to get beat by one of Europes best and not thier second string.If those were the actual odds I`d be happy,wouldn`t mind betting against Ginger Punch for one.All things considered it looks like a very entertaining card.I`ll be rooting for if not betting too much on The Tin Man,he doesn`t seem the same this year but maybe he has one more left in him.
Posted by SamG Oct 11, 2007 12:40:16 AM
yuwipi says:
Am I the only one who thought Indian Blessing looked like she was ready to fall down? Can't imagine her getting a more perfect foil to follow and run over in the Juvenile Fillies then she had in the Frizette.
Agree totally with Andrew Carpenter above that 7-1 on Shakespeare would be very juicy if indeed he does go in the mile.
The Hill odds display the usual Euro high opinion of their own horses.
They might want to take out the old tapes of the Aqueduct BC back in the mid 80s. I can still remember a fellow named Brough Scott?? (yes this was pre Mutton Chops era) bitterly crying the blues about the tight turf turns and short stretch run that cost his beloved Euro's glory. Deja Vu at Monmouth??
Posted by yuwipi Oct 10, 2007 11:00:15 PM
phil says:
Do NOT bet Talent Search in the futures, even if you like him as much as I do. He's injured and WILL NOT RUN IN THE BC.
Here's hoping he comes back strong next year.
Posted by Phil Oct 10, 2007 10:55:31 PM
dan_c says:
I can only tell you I have averaged about $5000 winnings over the last 10 yrs on BC day. I know it sounds cocky but its just a fact that pro handicappers have a huge edge on that day. We research for months waiting for this day. Until the post draws come out. I will say the plays so far look like ending the pick 4 2*2 Dylan thomas and red rocks with Street sense and lawyer ron spread like mad in the other races the pick 4 will not pay 100k this yr but you could get 10k if a bomb wins the mile, cause the distaff is wide open , the fav to bet against right now is nashoba's key do not take any cal horses 3-1 no way. the sprint seems to be a 5 horse race to me midnight, fabulous, benny the bull, mach ride, gregs gold cant take stover at 3-1, the filly race is the 2nd and 3rd finishers in the alciabides i really like a to the croft but oneil's filly looked very similiar to street sense with the big move and fade on keeneland poly as a 2 yr old
2yr colts wow this division stinks it maybe an all in the pick4 2*14*euros*5 if satwa queen comes that race is for place. until then take a close look at a to the croft 13-1 will look real good on cup day to start the pic 4
Posted by dan c Oct 10, 2007 8:38:40 PM
ponyman says:
Wish the Form only writes about horseracing-Let the football & poker players read thier own magazines---Love racing and thats it-Working hard to become consistant winner. I need no poker & football distractions.
Posted by ponyman Oct 10, 2007 7:44:02 PM
ejxd2 says:
Street Sense will be a favored OVERLAY... just as he was in the Derby.
Posted by EJXD2 Oct 10, 2007 7:16:47 PM
andyscoggin says:
Don't forget Lawyer Ron did not run well at MTH this summer. Yes, it was his first back after a layoff, but it was a very weak field of 5 in which he finished a distant 2nd. For whatever, any of that means.
Posted by AndyScoggin Oct 10, 2007 6:39:35 PM
andrew_carpenter says:
I'll take Shakespear at 7;1 all day long, even with the Euro Trio, although GW is a grand looking miler. I don't believe Kip Devile nor Out of Control are going because of supplemental fees.
Still believe both Dylan Thomas and English Chunnel are better at 10 panels than 12, but firm turf would help both. I guess my longhot for the Mile which was going to be Host isn't going to happen.
Posted by Andrew Carpenter Oct 10, 2007 6:21:57 PM
steven_crist says:
tom_f: It was a temporary printing problem that affected the Monday-Wednesday newspaper pp's and has been corrected.
Posted by steven_crist Oct 10, 2007 4:55:02 PM
tom_f says:
Stepping away from the current topic, I have a question for you, Mr. Crist...Why has the DRF, in their PP's , dropped the "diamond symbol w/ black dot in the center" which indicated that the particular track in question uses a synthetic track as opposed to a traditional dirt surface? It is such a useful tool, such as the oval with an "X" inside, indicating a race has been switched from the turf to the main track. Why was this this done? Thanks for your time and answer.
Posted by Tom F. Oct 10, 2007 4:22:05 PM
richp says:
I suspect Street Sense will be the favorite. Though the two high beyers that Lawyer Ron got at Saratoga might make him take a lot of money.
I don't trust an older horse who gets a lot better at Saratoga to repeat those numbers somewhere else. I've been doing figures for NY for almost thirty years, and I can't tell you how many horses I've seen that get thier best figures at Saratoga not duplicate them till they get back there the next August.
Some horses just fall in love with that track, more so that can be explained by the horse for course angle. I think Lawyer Ron is one of them.
I also think that Nafzger's explanation of the defeat in the Preakness is valid. The horse let up when he blew by the field thinking he had the race won.
This affected Borel's ride in the Travers. He didn't want to pass the last horse too soon and have the horse let up. He waited an awfull long time before he really asked the horse for his all. To me the race was better than it looked on paper. I was right there at the rail watching the strech run.
For me that makes Street Sense the choice.
Posted by RichP Oct 10, 2007 4:15:56 PM
jim_covello says:
Irish Smoke is going to run in the Juv Fillies. She hated the track at Keenland so her connections are throwing out that race
Posted by Jim Covello Oct 10, 2007 3:30:19 PM
kevin says:
I suspect the idiotic behavior of some poker players is an unfortunate byproduct of the "look at me" culture pervading television today. As for the real baboons of the gambling world, football fans take the prize. When I lived in Las Vegas and made regular weekend trips to my neighborhood casino, my fellow true gentlemen and I in the race and sports book would always dread the beginning of September for the conclusion of Del Mar and Saratoga and the arrival of the football monkeys.
Posted by Kevin Oct 10, 2007 2:52:28 PM
floppydog says:
Does anyone think Street Sense WON'T be favored? Seems unimaginable to me. Doesn't mean he won't be an underlay.
Posted by Floppydog Oct 10, 2007 2:21:50 PM
About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
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