Crist Blog | October 29, 2007
BC Figs, Birthday Horse
How many horses handled the sloppy main track or soft turf course and ran their races Saturday at Monmouth? The chart below, which compares the Beyer Speed Figure earned by BC Day runners to their most recent Beyer, shows only 20 of 77 comparable horses matching or exceeding their most recent effort.
I haven't listed a "difference" for horses who did not finish or were virtually eased (I used a Beyer of 25 as a cutoff), and I'm not going to try to make comparisons involving horses whose last race was in Europe. In that latter group -- this was the first time in nine years that the Euros failed win a single race -- it's probably fair to say that almost all ran below their typical level of foreign performance, which would make the total percentage even worse.
I'm not sure what the number should be. Obviously the high level of competition is going to takes its toll: Almost everyone is emerging from a 1-2-3 finish in a less talented field, and many horses will be unable to keep up and duplicate their previous efforts. Even so, 20 of 77 (26 percent) seems awfully low, indicative of many horses simply turning in non-efforts because of the footing, and borne out by the huge gaps from front to back.
The race that really looks weird in this comparison is the Sprint, where every single runner went backwards off his previous race. My first thought was that the figure was too low; it could certainly be arbitrarily raised, given that it was the last sprint of the day and the first in nearly three hours, a period during which the track was hit with more rain. On the other hand, it stands to reason that even the super-impressive winner, Midnight Lute, fell way off his huge Forego figure given that he was outrun early and appeared to be struggling to handle the track until he hit his best stride. The horses who ran fourth or worse all clearly didn't fire their best shots, so it comes down to whether you believe Idiot Proof and Talent Search matched their most recent performances in defeat or regressed a few points while running second and third. Watching both of them labor through the stetch, I can buy the latter point of view and thus the seemingly low figure.
--A horseplayer should always make a bet on the biggest race that's being run on his birthday. This was easy for me two years ago when October 29 was Breeders' Cup Day at Belmont, but a bit more challenging today, when the richest Thoroughbred event in North America is not the $5 million BC Classic but two divisions of the $50,000 Michigan Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Great Lakes Downs. Even so, I took a look and I'll make a token play for karma's sake on Cheries Challenge. She's the 2-1 ML favorite but looks more like 2-5 to me. The 2-year-old daughter of Meadow Prayer (Meadowlake) and Charles Dance (De Jeau) owns the three highest Beyers in the field (55-44-42), has run second and third to the absent queen of the division (Equitysdebutante) and comes off a forgiveably tiring 2nd at 3-5 on a track so muddy and tiring the winner needed 1:16.53 to negotiate six furlongs.
Great Lakes is scheduled to close, for the season and quite possibly for good, next week. There's talk of a proposed new track, a $140 million facility called Pinnacle Downs, opening in the eastern part of the state, but for now this would be the end of thoroughbred racing in the Wolverine State. There is plenty of melancholy and acrimony surrounding the likely closure of the track, which has supported a largely insular population of Michigan-breds and horsemen since 1999.
Looking through the Great Lakes past performances for today, I found a remarkable pair of stablemate racemares entered in the nightcap, a $4k N2Y claimer: Double Hat Trick, a 10-year-old daughter of Sefapiano (Fappiano), and Overnight Angel, a 9-year-old by Service Stripe (Deputy Minister), have made 86 and 85 career starts respectively, while spending their entire careers in the barn of owner-trainer Shane Spiess, who also bred Overnight Angel.
Both have left the Spiess outfit briefly for forays south to Indiana Downs and Hoosier Park each year, but have made it through a combined 171 career starts without ever being claimed away.
[Update 6:42 pm: I'm the new King of the Wolverine 3-10 shots: Cheries Challenge won by eight lengths but at substantially less than her 2-1 ML odds, paying a whopping $2.60. Turns out she can handle slow tracks after all: Time for the seven furlongs was 1:32.24. I don't think my $50 win bet tilted the odds. Now, what to do with the $15 profit?]
--At the risk of overstaying my welcome, I'm going to keep this blog going past my initial promise to do so "at least until the Breeders' Cup." Thank you all for your kind comments, encouragement and participation.
Posted by Steven Crist Oct 29, 2007 2:29:59 PM | Permalink
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Comments
garth says:
Crist stretching out the blog to two turns (and more)? Best news I've heard in a while.
Posted by garth Nov 1, 2007 12:49:23 AM
jeff_tatus says:
Steve... Please keep the blog going. If not, take the time to write another book on exotic handicapping.
I say this because I was less than 7 feet in overall length from hitting the pick 6 on BC day on a $96 ticket.
I lost the 1st leg by less than a length using just the 3/4.
I won the 2nd with a single with the 2 horse.
I singled the 13 in leg 3 and lost by a neck.
I singled the 12 in leg 4 and lost by a neck.
I had 2/6/7 in leg 5.
I had 1/2/3/4 in leg 6.
Too make matters worse, my great friend and mentor returned home to his house to discuss our "tough beats" and found his wife on the kitchen floor with a broken hip.
It really put things in perspective for me when this happened and I ask all of you to send out a breath of warm light and karma for my friend's wife of 50 years, Beryl.
Posted by jeff_tatus Oct 31, 2007 9:13:29 PM
clinton says:
Hi Steve,
I know it's not BC related but the Big A has quite the nice pk6 carryover for Thursdays card. Just wondering if you have any insights.
Posted by Clinton Oct 31, 2007 8:41:20 PM
dan_baedeker says:
Steve -
Could you post your comparative Beyer figures fot the intial three BC races run on Friday? It would be interesting to see Corinthian's very impressive performance in that perspective.
Thanks!
Posted by Dan Baedeker Oct 31, 2007 10:10:01 AM
caulks says:
Steve, I enjoyed reading and seeing your mom Judith Crist reviewing films when I was growing up and am really enjoying your insight about horse racing , including money management and betting strategies which your blog gives us. Please continue with the family tradition of entertaining us.
Thanks.
Posted by caulks Oct 31, 2007 8:07:30 AM
matt_smith says:
thank goodness the blog goes on---i just hope curlin can go to dubai next year and win the world cup---he is true superstar of the sport and may just turn things around for all tru fans of the game
Posted by matt smith Oct 30, 2007 10:25:51 PM
yuwipi says:
Steve,
With the Breeders Cup fresh in mind I was wondering if you have any thoughts regarding the sometimes floated idea of splitting the races between more than one site? I thought that Breeders Cup officials had considered a situation several years ago wherein a permanent host site, lilke Churchill Downs, would get x number of races every year. A second rotating site would host the balance. I thought the idea interesting at the time. Now with the expansion to 11 races and spill over to two days, and with more races promised in the near future, do you think we could be at a point where 12 or 13 BC races might be split between two tracks? I can understand BC reluctance to mess with a good thing, but can see some definite positive angles to it also. Any thoughts or rumors?
Posted by yuwipi Oct 30, 2007 7:59:25 PM
tom_reetz says:
Marc Attenberg tipped me off to your blog a month ago, and I've been a fan ever since. Not only a Happy Birthday - but - kudos for a truly entertaining effort. Thanks.
Posted by Tom Reetz Oct 30, 2007 7:56:57 PM
matt_e says:
We share a birthday Steve. Maybe some of your good luck will rub off on me (or maybe 10/29 is an inherently lucky day?).
Please keep the blog going.
Posted by Matt E Oct 30, 2007 5:32:59 PM
meadow_tern says:
I am looking for a five year commitment on the blog. I am willing to pay extra for the blog. I want the blog. There is a book in there somewhere.
Posted by meadow tern Oct 30, 2007 3:33:54 PM
tom_gordon says:
Steve,
This style of writing is a pleasure to read mostly due to your experience & credibility. I look forward to your ideas & comments on a daily basis and it would be a shame to discontinue. See what you've got yourself into!
Posted by Tom Gordon Oct 30, 2007 11:37:42 AM
dan_baedeker says:
Happy Birthday Steve, and thanks for the very interesting Beyer speed figure comparisons. They obviously lack the scientific precision they attempt to achieve, but they are instructive in indicating which horses ran their races and which did not. Monmouth did everything they could to put on a good show, but this is obviously the last time they will ever get a Breeders Cup. To me, the most
amazing achievement of the day was by Smart Strike. This less-than-champion runner has sired the winners of the two most valuable races in the world: English Channel and Curlin. Smart Strike must now become the most sought-after stallion in the world.
As a life-long pedigree fanatic, it is fascinating to me that all 11 of the Breeders Cup winners carry the genes of Mr. Prospector, and 10 of the 11 also carry the genes of Northern Dancer. This combo seems to have become a "sine qua non" of racing success. It has limited the scope of the breed, but does not seem as of yet to have led to Hapsburg-like genetic disasters.
As you also mention, the ownership of champion horses now seems to devolve upon shady sindicates and shady veterinary/trainer practices competing with zillionaire Dubaians. Sport franchises (and art patronage) have always involved such unsavory
practices. We who love the game and the horses must simply remember that these magnificent animals do not know who they are owned by, and give their best for our
edification and enjoyment.
Keep up the interesting blogging!
Posted by Dan Baedeker Oct 30, 2007 11:11:02 AM
seeking_the_gold says:
Steve,
I have been to the last 7 breeders cups. If the NTRA wants to make this the super bowl of racing, shouldn't they have these races on a rotating basis of say belmont and santa anita. These small tracks don't have the parking, throw in these temporary seats which cost a bundle to the true horseplayer and some (although I found monmouth to be adequete) don't have enough SAM machines. Any thoughts on this? Thanks.
Posted by Seeking the Gold Oct 30, 2007 10:56:52 AM
chris_garrity says:
Steve, keep this thing going. It's the first thing I turn to on the DRF home page every day. The Breeders Cup coverage was great.
Like a racehorse, you should be able to turn yourself out, and take a break of a few weeks at least a few times a year, but as long as you keep writing, I'll be reading.
Posted by Chris Garrity Oct 30, 2007 8:59:56 AM
alex says:
Belated happy birthday Steve. A 30% gain for under two minutes investment is still beter than what the local bank's paying.
Happy to hear that the blog will continue. All the best.
Posted by Alex Oct 30, 2007 8:33:32 AM
tony_ says:
Steve,
great news about the blog . that's just great . It will help us all . I did not realize your birthday was 10/29 .Mine is today 10/30 /53 . Have a great one .
Tony the guitarist .
Posted by Tony Oct 30, 2007 8:31:47 AM
jason_in_austria says:
Steve,
Having no fellow expat horse players with me on BC day, I feel your beacon of equine insight is all the more needed from 5000 miles away. Vienna is cold, wet and growing darker- humor and camaraderie are abundant commodities on the blog and you are the source.
Happy Birthday and if you can at least give us a weekend posting or two, I would greatly appreciate it.
Jason
Posted by Jason in Austria Oct 30, 2007 7:40:55 AM
don_reed says:
Lucky you, that your BD could fall on a Breeders' Cup!
Those of us born in March only have the hope that Crazy Old Frank (Stronach) will eventually change his mind 31 times -
Scheduling the Florida Derby on each possible day in March in the next 31 years -
So that a Big Race Day will fall on our BDs.
Given his disposition, it's a lock!
Happy BD!
Posted by Don Reed Oct 30, 2007 5:18:14 AM
dick_w says:
Happy Birthday Steve ! My B D is tomorrow (10/30). Trouble is, almost all tracks are dark. Exceptions are Fort Erie, Philadelphia Park and Portland Meadows. I don't think my local OTB site handels Fort Erie or Philadelphia so the biggest race of the day is an $8,000 allowance at Portland Meadows. Whoopeee !!! Think I'll wait for the weekend...
To Floppydog - don't worry, you are in good company. By the way, how exactly do you calculate that DBB (disappearing bankroll beyer). 153 sounds a little inflated to me - Ha !!!
Posted by Dick W Oct 30, 2007 1:02:59 AM
giacomo_joe says:
Steve,
Do you feel that the new parameters of pre-race testing had anything to do with the slow performances of the possible contenders who did not finish ITM in the World Thoroughbred Championships?
Posted by Giacomo Joe Oct 30, 2007 12:58:21 AM
kansas_jayhawk_t says:
Thanks Steve, for keeping the blog going. Your expert insight, so unselfishly distributed, is the best thing going in horseracing today. Your blog, as well as your books, are enjoyable beyond compare. Thank you, for lending your personal touch to this great game.
Posted by Kansas Jayhawk T. Oct 29, 2007 11:54:43 PM
bob_d says:
Steve,
I finally have been able to decompress and dry out (from the NJ rain btw) and have updated some interesting analysis on the superfecta. (One point of clarification; all analyses exclude the $693,000 for $1 at the 1999 Gulfstream Classic.)
Having said that, including 2007,since the advent of the superfecta, 41 times or 55.41% of the results have had a winner and/or second place runner at greater then 10 - 1. These results have on average paid $17,464 or more then double the rest of the supers.
For 2007 alone, 4 races of 11 (about 37%) met these criteria which was a little low; however the average payoff on these 4 races was a paltry $4,384. The overall payoff of $2,753 was also well below the historical average.
The introduction of the $.10 superfecta was the most significant change made to the wagering menu in 2007 and therefore my question is: how much, if any, do you believe that $.10 super is responsible for this payoff decline? I believe that it is reasonable to think that the lower minimum allowed betters to spread much more aggressively and drive down payoffs.
On a related question: was there a significant change in the amount wagered into the superfecta pools either in total or as a percentage of the total pools? (In other words, did the new minimums increase overall handle or simply squeeze the balloon by shifting money from one pool to another or did it really not have much of an impact at all?)
Also, I created a nice series of ABC tickets on the late pick four that resulted in me having two winning tickets for a $144 investment.
Thanks.
Bob
Posted by Bob D Oct 29, 2007 11:07:31 PM
david_walden says:
Steve,
I think we all hope you will continue the blog as often as possible.
On opening the webpage each day, the very first thing I look for is a a new post on your blog.
Reading and comparing your approach to handicapping and wager structuring to a race card that just happened or will happen tomorrow is virtually interactive. We all compare and learn from your expertise and opinions; sharing your pain when losing, and cheering your wins as one of us because of your ability to make us feel as if we know you.
Thanks for the ride!
Posted by David Walden Oct 29, 2007 11:03:49 PM
pat9152 says:
Steven-
I enjoy the BC every year regardless of the venue but they need to keep it at the big tracks.
I say this because I noticed in the track program my son brought home (yes, he went without me) a full page ad from our home track, SHRP
touting SHRP as worthy of a BC
hostng. I doubt them due to 2 simple items from Saturday-
I arrived at SHRP at 10:30 AM
central time, and they were out of AM DRFs!!!!!
Then, there was only one HD TV in the whole Jockey Club-mounted on the wall 15 ft up!!!
They need to rethink their request for a BC hosting.
Posted by pat9152 Oct 29, 2007 10:41:30 PM
bob_ says:
$50 to win on Great Lakes Down just because its your birthday!
Congratulations on your win on your birthday. Oh, by the way, you're victim just like all of us!
Posted by Bob Oct 29, 2007 10:13:21 PM
bearcatbob says:
Very happy about the blog continuing and happy birthday. Hope you dont consider it "work" and you enjoy sharing your thoughts as much as we seem to enjoy reading them. And although I think most of the people who visit this site are polite and mean well, it is a good thing to preview the posts before they are published. It will keep this blog first class. Also like when you answer reader questions. Thanks again.
Posted by Bearcatbob Oct 29, 2007 10:09:22 PM
davey700 says:
Happy Birthday Steve. I'm glad to see the blog will keep going. It's nice to see someone at the top cares about "someones" at the bottom.
Posted by Davey700 Oct 29, 2007 9:43:22 PM
john_c says:
Happy Birthday, Steve, and many more! Like your books, this blog has been compelling, informative, and funny, written by one who has led a very interesting life and who continues to make life interesting. There are few whose opinions about thoroughbreds, horsemen, and handicapping (and Saratoga cuisine among other things)are as worthwhile and well-informed as yours are. We really appreciate your perspective and look forward to it when you have the time and desire.
Continued success, good health, and good times.
Posted by John C. Oct 29, 2007 9:41:08 PM
mlnj says:
I suppose I should be happy that you will continue this blog from time to time, but it's sad to see a great man reduced to commenting on the Michigan Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Great Lakes Downs.
Posted by ML/NJ Oct 29, 2007 9:25:39 PM
bva says:
Thanks for the great work on the bolg Steve; A must read through these months, Happy Bday, and go...at least ..to the NYRA Mile.
Posted by BVA Oct 29, 2007 9:19:04 PM
brian_stanton says:
Steve
Any thoughts of a $1.00 pick eight or a .50 pick eight, for next years BC.?
How about a .25 pick all 11 BC races or .10 ?
A chance for the smaler bettor to make a score,with out putting together a group for a pick six. Too many opinions with groups.
Posted by Brian Stanton Oct 29, 2007 7:36:22 PM
samg says:
Happy Birthday Steve!
I was hoping the blog would be back for the derby preps but keeping it going is better yet.You can`t possibly overstay your welcome after the great job you did here on the B.C.Is that 113 the highest ever BSF by a 2yr old?It will be interesting to see if there`s another star in our midst or just another horse who peaked at 2.
Posted by SamG Oct 29, 2007 7:19:31 PM
ajv says:
Steve, Happy B'day and congrats on your big score! You can almost afford a monthly DRF PP subscription with the winnings! Glad you're keeping the blog going. If I may make a suggestion, why not keep it active year round and "publish" as you feel necessary?
Posted by AJV Oct 29, 2007 7:12:54 PM
megan says:
We would listen to you if you were handicapping a race in which hedgehogs were running. We profit (literally) from your comments!
Megan
Posted by Megan Oct 29, 2007 7:10:20 PM
jim says:
Steve,
MP is my hometrack. Not sure what it was but i really thought it was lacking. May have been the rain or something but i dont think you can run such a prestigous event at a track that does not really host a few grade I races throughout the year, year in and year out. Throw out the UN and Haskell and i am not sure what other grade I events MP has to offer. I think you have to keep the BC in NY, Cali, CD or GP and that is about it. They have the graded races, year in and out, the upgraded facilities and the capacity to handle the masses and the weather.
Posted by jim Oct 29, 2007 6:32:49 PM
mike says:
As a casual, very young, and largely uneducated horseplayer I wanted to thank you for this blog. Although, I took a bath on the BC I have learned more about this game in the past week or so from this blog than in the past 3 or 4 years on my own. Thanks for the hard work and at least in my opinion I hope you keep this going as long as you have something to say.
Posted by Mike Oct 29, 2007 6:18:26 PM
mikethedog says:
Happy Birthday to US? Steve, baby---you keeping this blog going is like a b'day gift to all of us. Good luck on your wagers. By the way, and not that it's any of my business, but what do you do to "come down" after a big day like Saturday? You put in a huge effort leading up to Saturday and obviously were at it all day. Love the blog!!!!!!!!!!!1
Posted by mikethedog Oct 29, 2007 6:07:00 PM
bob_grant says:
A Very Happy B-Day to You! Thanks again for your effort on this Blog. Between this & Dan's 'FormBlog', It makes visiting DRF.COM a MUST every day!
Posted by Bob Grant Oct 29, 2007 5:51:33 PM
william_brouilette says:
Happy birthday to you Steve.
You got me by a day!
I think it was 2004 when the Cup was on my birthday.
It was fun betting on that day so I know what you mean.
Posted by william brouilette Oct 29, 2007 5:43:20 PM
ralph_conte says:
Also, I just asked the local store in my town to bring in some bags og CHEEZ WAFFIES to get me thru till SAR opens up in july. It'll keep me going until then.
Posted by ralph conte Oct 29, 2007 5:23:24 PM
ralph_conte says:
Steve, Great to hear your still going on wtth your bolg. It's going to be a long winter till Gulfstream opens up, but the BIG A is still nice to follow. Still looking to read every day. It will keep me updated for the winter. Just started to read your book Exotic Betting. Time to try some new betting ways. Thanks for the good news.Ralph from New Jersey.
Posted by ralph conte Oct 29, 2007 5:18:43 PM
caulks says:
Please keep the blog going through the long winter. I enjoy it and the commentary. Thanks, Steve
Posted by caulks Oct 29, 2007 5:13:57 PM
tom_a_toe says:
As the song goes, Don't Stop! I can only read so many [breeding] stories...
Posted by Tom A Toe Oct 29, 2007 5:03:27 PM
mcfarren says:
Happy Birthday Steve. Fantastic job with the Blog from Saratoga through the Classic. If the goal was to inform your readers, keep people coming to the DRF website and have a lot of fun then you exceeded your goal.
Thanks
Posted by mcfarren Oct 29, 2007 4:32:22 PM
upstate_joe says:
Steve-
Well,Happy Birthday!
Thanks for the great news that you will be keeping the blog going, it will make the winter months so much better.
Posted by Upstate Joe Oct 29, 2007 4:07:23 PM
cbgas says:
Hey, you're the boss...assign one of your staff to research the field BSFs from the last few years and see what the comparative % regressions were.
Assigning a proper track variant for each of the races must be a challenging, especially given the efforts of Coco Belle and War Pass. Were the variants grouped together or are they indiviualized for each race?
Posted by cbgas Oct 29, 2007 3:57:35 PM
teresa says:
Woo-hoo! Great news about the blog, Steve. It's been fun to read. And as someone who's pledged to blog about racing at Aqueduct this winter, I'm glad to know that at least one big name isn't giving up on the game as the dreary weather is imminent. No fair weather blogger, you...
Posted by Teresa Oct 29, 2007 3:53:35 PM
arazi says:
Despite excessive pitching of BSF, almost exclusive emphasis on NY circuit, and a good number of participants' apparent curiosity on your picks and bets rather than handicaping, I found your blog interesting and fun.
I have to appreciate your honesty and willingness to share your true thoughts and ideas in a game where secrecy and superstitions rules.
The efforts you put in here for so many months to teach fellow handicappers should be appreciated and I would've honestly love to see you hit the BC pick 6. That would have brought the happy and well deserved conclusion for all your hard work as a result of several months of relentless handicapping, observation, and writing.
You deserve an Eclipse Award for a well articulated, friendly, and well-spirited blog.
Best,
Arazi
Posted by Arazi Oct 29, 2007 3:53:10 PM
charlie_buttrey says:
At the risk of inflating your ego, I was delighted to read that you are going to continue with the blog, since I am now a fanatical devotee.
Posted by Charlie Buttrey Oct 29, 2007 3:47:30 PM
About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
