Crist Blog | March 24, 2008
The Elusive 100
Maybe it's just a statistical oddity for now, and perhaps the final round of Derby preps will feature a bunch of breakout performances, but the failure of any 3-year-old to run a triple-digit Beyer in any of the Derby preps longer than a mile is going on much longer than usual this year.
The chart below gives a 10-year history of the winning Beyer Speed Figures in the six highest-grade Derby preps at 1 1/16 miles or more run so far this year, all of them Grade 2's: the Robert B Lewis (run as the Santa Catalina through 2005), Fountain of Youth, Louisiana Derby, Rebel, San Felipe and Lane's End:
In addition to this year's average winning Beyer in these six races being the lowest in a decade, this is the first year since at least 1999 that at least two of them have not been won with a Beyer of 100 or higher. From 1999 through 2004, at least four of the six were won with a triple-digit fig.
Factors involved in the decline could include a shift in training methods, with everyone bringing their horses along more slowly; few pre-Derby starts, which could mean that horses are making their first or second rather than second or third start of the year in these races; and slower-paced racing on synthetic surfaces.
It would be premature to call this a weak crop, just as I think many people went way overboard pronouncing last year's crop the greatest in a half-century. For my money, the 3-year-old class of 1987 (Alysheba, Java Gold, Bet Twice, Cryptoclearance, Lost Code, Gulch, Afleet, Polish Navy, Demons Begone, Gone West) was both deeper and faster than the class of 2007 (Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, Daaher, Tiago.)
Posted by Steven Crist Mar 24, 2008 12:29:31 PM | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
mudhoundmojo says:
If someone has a gun to my head and says you must bet this race, I most certainly would consider any favorite, regardless of odds.
Most fortunate for me, I have never been under such pressure to play a single race and can pick and choose which races I want too bet, freely.
It almost sounds as if some people must bet a race that they handicapped.
Let me ask, if you were going into each week (without a single gun pointed at your head) with the express goal to find 3 or 4 races to bet and have been doing that for 15 years, would you settle on even money favorites (when you well know that at the end of the week there will have been 10 races or more that had 5,6,7, or more to 1 shots that you liked every bit as much as any 6/5 or even money favorite)? Of course, not. It's just different mind sets, and is what makes the world go round.
I think it is bad money management to bet overwhelming favorites.
It was said, "You have too bet who you think is going to win the race...." Well, actually, no you don't. I would never handicapp a race, where I thought the favorite was as sure as it gets in horse racing, then turn around and try to beat him with what I think are clearly inferior horses. That's foolish, but, it is horse racing and I have seen plenty, too know, there is no sure thing.
So, what too do, hmmm. Here's an idea I picked up years ago, it's called "I pass." It's a great little tool to have in your belt.
There's always another race, and I feel zero obligation too bet one. Good luck too all.
Posted by MudhoundMojo Mar 30, 2008 1:08:30 PM
c says:
Hi Steve,
Satuday's DRF indicated that Vermilion's last race (February Stks) was over a straight course. I watched the race on youtube and it was clearly a left-handed race. I just to pass it on in case the PPs for international races are created using a database which stores such information.
Posted by C Mar 30, 2008 11:40:13 AM
larry_thiel says:
I bet a fair amount of favorites and have no aversion to doing it. I try to handicap who's going to win and, sorry, but sometimes it's pretty certain to be the favorite. And since they do win one out of three, sometimes you have to take your medicine.
The way I look at it is, it's like I made a bet with you on a football game, $5, you take Iowa, I take Iowa State. And I'd be perfectly happy winning your $5. If the best I can get on a horse I think is going to win, is even money, why not take it and be happy.
I think it's bad money management to state flatly that you won't bet a favorite.
You have to bet who you think is going to win the race.
Handicapping the winner and then throwing him out because he wouldn't have paid a windfall makes no sense to me.
Posted by Larry Thiel Mar 29, 2008 7:53:01 PM
steve_in_nc says:
Steve...
This has nothing to do with horses...
In a relative's bathroom, I came across an ancient copy of the Harvard Lampoon's College guide (your first publishing foray?).
You should post that picture of yourself in that hat(?) in the front of the book. Ah, youth.
Posted by Steve in NC Mar 29, 2008 9:25:15 AM
landen says:
Finally the voices come out! Last year on the build up to BC day I was soundly criticized on DRF for stating the '07 crop was good but not great and if some of the top horses in '05/'06 had been running in the Classic they would be favored. Now I say this on the eve of Curlin possibly being pronounced one of the best ever, but alas I feel vindicated and a little more confident in forming my opinions about last years 3-yr olds. After all, a filly won the Belmont and wasn't even a longshot to do so.
Posted by Landen Mar 29, 2008 1:30:46 AM
larry_thiel says:
I see Watchmaker wants to throw out "Big Brown" because of his unfortunate post position. Don't even think about it. The same things happened to Barbaro down in Florida. They said no one ever won from that post. And of course he did. Big Brown's going to win. You could start him behind the gate, and he'd still win this race.
Posted by Larry Thiel Mar 28, 2008 8:32:38 PM
jeanne says:
Clinton,
Though it's not a handicapping exercise, many racing fans, especially those who have followed the game for a long time, enjoy comparing crops. Ranking and comparing crops and individual has been part of the game for centuries and wont stop just because (as we all know) this year's Derby winner won't have to beat Citaion or Secretariat or even Giacomo to wear roses.
Posted by Jeanne Mar 28, 2008 3:52:33 PM
flip_dawson says:
NORTH AMERICAN RACING LEADERS
2008 JOCKEY STATISTICS
Garrett K. Gomez $5,203,769
Rafael Bejarano $3,746,860
Ramon A. Dominguez $3,587,893
Eibar Coa $2,678,674
Shaun Bridgmohan $2,552,129
Gomez on CV in the Wood--will retain mount if he and his agent agree that the Derby is within grasp.
Gomez has stated he and his agent are gunning for top money earned in 2008--agent wants him to win as well, as agent gets 20% of earnings.
Court Vision is at 17-1 from pool 1.
Posted by Flip Dawson Mar 28, 2008 3:34:06 PM
mike_d says:
Re: Big Brown and post 12. The stat is out there: horses are 0 for 29 in posts 11 and 12 at 1 1/8 miles on dirt since the Gulfstream Park renovation.
But here is the rub: 4 of 18 starters from post 11 have run second. That's 22 percent, and NO OTHER POST POSITION has done as well! As for post 12, 1 of 11 starters ran second ( 9 percent), not great but not death either.
Combined, 5 of 29 starters from posts 11 and 12 have run second at 1 1/8 miles on drit since the renovation -- meaning contending for the W isn't impossible.
Posted by Mike D. Mar 28, 2008 2:36:55 PM
flip_dawson says:
BRIDGE JUMPERS
A good example of this was Race 1 at Santa anita on Thursday March 27/08
Go to the chart of this race to see how it works.
The sucker horse (favorite at 2-5) ran 4th, but only one problem--somone bet the farm on this horse to show.He ran 4th, so all the other nags paid more to show than to place.
These bets come up every now and then. The downside is that you must be at the track or else on your computer.
I was surprised to see this one in Race 1,as it usually takes place in Stake races. Happens a lot at the trots, as well.
Posted by Flip Dawson Mar 28, 2008 11:18:52 AM
flip_dawson says:
To George Quinn, my fears were in error, as COURT VISION is entered in the Wood Memorial with Gomez in the saddle.
Gomez left one of his regular rides back at Santa Anita to ride CV.
If he is up on Derby Day, looks good to me.
Posted by Flip Dawson Mar 28, 2008 11:06:37 AM
rojo says:
Hey flip,
Load up yor boat with monuments; throw in Court Vision for a little more weight, and keep rowing!
Posted by rojo Mar 28, 2008 1:38:02 AM
zarpo says:
Flip,
Court Vision is supposed to run in the Wood Memorial next weekend.
Posted by zarpo Mar 28, 2008 12:38:33 AM
clinton says:
I love it when people start comparing one crop of 3yo's to the next and determine which one is stronger than the next. When the 3yo's of the 1956 season meet the 3yo's of the 2008 season meeet in this years Derby then I'll be sure to cahrt who's faced stiffer competition and who's run faster before I go to the windows.
Posted by Clinton Mar 27, 2008 4:59:21 PM
aldo_cella says:
Steve, awhile back you mentioned that you'd use the winter months to undertake a study of turf sprints on the NYRA circuit to be prepared for the opening of Belmont. How's it going?
Posted by aldo_cella Mar 27, 2008 3:05:36 PM
george_quinn says:
To Flip Dawson,
Let me know if you officially get off of Court Vision, if you do , I will double up.
George in Lexington Ky.
Posted by George Quinn Mar 27, 2008 2:22:51 PM
flip_dawson says:
With the posting of Mudhoundmojo, it is nice to see that my methods of ignoring favorites is shared by him also.
I like the idea of"waiting all week to snare a price of 5-1 to 20-1."
It would seem to me that I should have a paternity test done on Mr. Mojo, as we may be brothers and not even know it.
MOJO and I are alike in that if we find a sold play at 20-1, we'll do further study on it to see if it deserves our money. We'll leave the favorites to the smokers and drinkers who play every race, capping their day off with a favorite who loses,running 7th and creating a show price on the top 3 finishers paying anywhere from $16.00 to $50.00, due to a bridge jumper who puts a large sum to show on the favorite. This happens all the time; trots or runners.
In fact, someone told me that a known bridge jumper was seen lurking near the barn of PYRO. Can't wait!!!!
Posted by Flip Dawson Mar 27, 2008 10:04:14 AM
blue_horseshoe says:
MudhoundMojo,
I appreciate your post. I should further clarify that I don't bet every race and I don't bet the favorite in every race. I simply try to find value (to beat the large take out) and sometimes I find it in favorites...
Best of luck to you!
Posted by Blue Horseshoe Mar 27, 2008 9:38:19 AM
joe says:
On the plus side,if it is a weak group we'll get to see them run next year.(no premature retirements.)
Posted by Joe Mar 26, 2008 6:52:00 PM
michael says:
WED R5 BIG A
What is up with Norb, Arroyojr's ride on Regal Playmate?
As fishy as they come.
Posted by michael Mar 26, 2008 3:01:11 PM
flip_dawson says:
To George Quinn:
Yes, you could go downtown and play the 5 cent parking meters.
I tried it before, and had no luck at putting in 100 dollar bills.
All kidding aside, I think I am screwed with COURT VISION. I see no prep for him, and time is ticking, each day.
I think the connections may have given up on him, unless he is at the Gulf this Sat.
Posted by Flip Dawson Mar 26, 2008 1:50:49 PM
mudhoundmojo says:
blue_horseshoe,
You are quite welcome. Since I only bet a few races each week, I feel badly I couldn't contribute more. Since now, I feel a kinship too you.
Anyway, different stokes and all that jazz. I watch as many races as anyone I know, but have never felt a need to bet the races I watch.
I can understand if I was playing more, (or felt the need to) that I would occassionally be stuck with a favorite (even then, anything less than 7/2 would repell me).
I hope you are successful at playing the favorites "quite frequently."
As a point of clarification, I don't bet favorites because there are 50 live races and thousands of other races too choose from each week. There is simply no need too play a even money or 8/5 shot imo. There are opportunities each week that I find that I like ranging from 5-1 to 20-1 every bit as much as I liked any favorite all week. So, no, I don't not play the favorite simply because it is the favorite.
I just know over the course of a few days, if necessary, I can find something much better at a much better price. It's just shopping.
I play a pik 4 or pik 3 rarely. I play exotics and win. I will wheel favorites underneath on exotics and occasionally vice versa if I like prices underneath, but feel the favorite will most likely come in.
My ultimate goal each week is too find races where I feel the 1,2,3 (in odds)horses are likely not to come in the exacta. These races are difficult to find, but they are there and I patiently wait for them. I could care less the level of the race, but prefer the cheapies.
My main point in my earlier note was that if you like studying races and watching them without gambling on each one, you will find many opportunities. I would rather place larger bets on races I really like than multiple wagers on races I sorta like.
Over 35 years in this game and I have learned to develop more of a discerning (for me)taste. Races I used too bet in a whim in my early stages, I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole now.
Blue, this is certainly no judgement on you, as I have no idea of your wagering habbits other than you like to bet favorites "quite frequently." One could just as easily wait all week for a few races where they feel the favorites are just standouts and then load up on them. Whatever.
This blog seems like a good place to share ideas and see if we can gain any insight. I don't post often but read it all. Always some good little nuggets in here. Thanks all.
Posted by MudhoundMojo Mar 26, 2008 1:43:38 PM
green_mtn_punter says:
Bored already with Derby mania so wantedto comment on your Saturday visit to Rockingham Park, the Ol' Rock, as it was affectionately known to affectionately known to legions of New England horseplayers. I went many times when a student at BU, both flats and harness. Lou and Lutza Smith, or Uncle Lou and Aunt Lutza as they were known to legions of horseplayers, ran a first class, fan- friendly operation. I first saw Dr Fager race at the old Rock, winning the Rockingham Special in 1967. The Smith's were genuine race track entrepreneurs, a breed that has unfortunately disappeared from the high capital demand game that is played today. In any event, Steve, you may remember it from your Harvard days although it sounded like Wonderland and Taunton were at the top of your list in those days!
Posted by Green Mtn Punter Mar 26, 2008 12:59:44 PM
blue_horseshoe says:
MudhoundMojo,
I play favorites quite frequently! I appreciate the "thanks" that you've extended for my participation in the pari-mutuel pools and I'd like to respond in kind with my thanks for your participation in the pari-mutuel pools with not playing favorites because they're favorites. Thanks and please continue to spread your gospel!
Posted by Blue Horseshoe Mar 26, 2008 11:11:17 AM
george_quinn says:
Flip Dawson makes me want to stop betting horses altogether! I think I will go downtown and start playing the parking meters.
George in Lexington Ky.
Posted by george quinn Mar 25, 2008 11:58:43 PM
van_savant says:
Mr. Dawson;
You are a gem, and one-of-a-kind, sir! They clearly broke-the-mold when they created you.
I can only dream of crossing paths with you some day.
Posted by Van Savant Mar 25, 2008 11:14:35 PM
steve_breen says:
I see the Beyer figs as one of the useful tools used when handicapping any race (Derby included), but not the sole basis for picking a winner -- unless you like eating chalk.
Posted by Steve Breen Mar 25, 2008 10:19:39 PM
phil says:
Thanks Steve, nice blog. Last year's group was very good at the very top, but when I look at the list that you put out from 1987, I just have to shake my head and smile...wow! Hard to top. But all in all, last year's crop was the best in the last 20 years...the biggest problem right now is that those artificial surfaces have totally changed the pre-Derby buildup....I for one am waiting for the Blue Grass and Wood to finally sort it out...it's useless to predict any Derby horse right now.
Posted by Phil Mar 25, 2008 9:52:59 PM
blind_squirrel says:
george,
relish and embellish rhyme, are they synonymous too? lol
Posted by blind squirrel Mar 25, 2008 9:36:23 PM
flip_dawson says:
Sorry, to all my fans. Google Dawson Monuments to see my daily work.
Posted by Flip Dawson Mar 25, 2008 9:02:30 PM
flip_dawson says:
I was of the impression that any wager paying over $600.00 was taxed. It's hard for me to understand your very lucky tax laws in the USA, when in Canada, we pay no tax at any time, whether nags, lotteries, bingo, etc.
Re my play, on the big races, it is on the day of the race (Classic, Derby). This year, 2008, I got involved with the futures pool. I played 2 nags--COURT VISION at 17-1, and GIANT MOON, $10.00 at 67-1.
COURT VISION has $100.00 on his mane.
I still maintain that the secret to winning at the races is to look for reasons not to bet. I actually hate betting, and do so very grudgingly. Some Derbys had no bet from me. Who says I have to bet?? I have other ways of making money. I can go out on my boat, and make $1000.00 -$2000.00 in 2-3 hours, with no betting required.
Go ahead, Google me at Cemetery monuments-Durham Region of Ontario. See what I mean?
I still say Court Vision will triumph.Out of a total of 30 requirements, he was the only horse to qualify on all 30 points.
Posted by Flip Dawson Mar 25, 2008 8:57:08 PM
dfwbuck says:
flip,
i love how in one post you say "(I) find winners in other ways, ways that are only found on race day."
then the next post gush about your picks for a race that's 30+ days away!
Posted by dfwbuck Mar 25, 2008 7:30:09 PM
mudhoundmojo says:
Go Flip, Gooo. Very entertaining to read. Keep taking the punches and keep throwing.
I too, am a big believer in less races bet and more attention to detail on race day.
If you play this game long enough, you discover that most people are followers and play the game the way they were taught. Most continue too lose over time, but refuse too go against conventional strategies and tactics. They either have no inclination too truly reverse there fortunes or simply refuse too believe there eyes.
Why in the world would anyone bet on a favorite in a race when over the course of hundreds of thousands of races we know they win a third of the time. Yet, they do, with my thanks.
So many races and so much information, what's the rush? So many races with vulnerable favorites, (most) why bet when you love the favorite at even money? Way too much risk for little reward, yet, people glom on too that favorite. Gotta love it.
Horse racing is like the old story about the weather in Kansas (or name place) "If you like the weather, just wait 5 minutes." The next race or the one after that promises too be a much better opportunity.
How many times do you truly like the favorite as the best horse too win, after studying the race? If you answer most of the time, best too stay away from this game. If, like me, you think the favorite is the best horse on paper less than 25% of the time, then patience is key.
Take your time...., if you must play every race, bet small on the ugly ones and pick your spots for bigger bets.
Sorry, just a pet peeve I had too get off my chest. I visited my nephew over Easter. Turns out he "loves the horses." Truth be told, he never watched the horses except when they broke, as he was too busy playing every simulcast in the place. Just throwing money at 90% favorites or close too from NY too Florida too Illinois and back to California. A virtual whirlwin of propositions, with the favorite keyed all over.
I had only met my nephew as a young kid, so I don't know where he learned (or if)this game. I looked around and saw quite a few people doing the same thing (although, not many had my nephews exuberance)
Sorry...., just ranting again. I guess its best for most of us that so many play the way they do.
Posted by MudhoundMojo Mar 25, 2008 6:53:54 PM
george315 says:
Flip,
So you went to the $5 window to bet on Tinderbox to avoid paying taxes? Since when did anyone have to pay taxes on a $100 win bet with a horse paying 8-1? With the way you speak and the events that you cite, I can't help but think that you relish or at least expand the truth a little bit. This is the 5th comment that I have heard you blog that caught my attention. I apologize for reaching out to just you but I could not contain myself any more.
George
Posted by George315 Mar 25, 2008 6:15:00 PM
tim says:
Hey Flip, why would you have to ever pay taxes on a win bet? It doesnt matter what nomination you bet the horse to win, unless he is 300/1.
The horse you say you had $100 to win on at 8/1 would never require you to care in what nomination you bet him at. You never pay taxes in horse racing unless you win $600 for a $2 bet.
I think you are full of bologna.
Posted by Tim Mar 25, 2008 1:19:30 PM
jcp says:
I think it is really a slow bunch unless everybody wakes up in the last preps...I think we are looking at Giacomo all over again...
Posted by jcp Mar 25, 2008 11:58:46 AM
flip_dawson says:
Some wagers deserving of our money:
Court Vision to win Derby.
Giant Moon for 2nd, if he runs.He has only one loss on a sloppy track when Visionaire won.
Reverse Giant Moon with Elysium Fields in exotics.
That takes care of the top 3 places. A 4th finisher should be easier when reading the tote board.
If you see a plane buzzing Churchill Downs, don't worry. It's only me seeding the clouds for more slop. If track sloppy, leave Giant Moon in his barn, and get out the Tomlinson ratings, both for off tracks and also for distance. Check shoes.
And remeber, the credit card jingle goes like this:
VISIONAIRE plus shoes-$2500.00
ELYSIUM FIELDS -at 20-1 mucho money.
COURT VISION with GOMEZ at 17-1, priceless!!!!
Posted by Flip Dawson Mar 25, 2008 10:34:43 AM
flip_dawson says:
Another reason why I turn my back on speed figures, Beyers, any kind of comparison of who breaks 100 in Beyer figs.
OK, let's say I start to use these figs. The top figs this spring will produce nothing more than a favorite on the tote board.So, let's say that PYRO has a couple of races over 100 in Beyerland. All this does is stamp him a 7-5 shot to win his next race. So, what good is he to me, if I turn my back on Faves. They only win 33% of the time.
You could actually use reverse handicapping here. Just watch for anyone over 100 in Beyer figs, and throw them out.
It seems to me that a lot of work is used up to find a top 100 Beyer horse, only to see him as a favorite.
Makes no sense to me.I have no use for favorites and find winners in other ways, ways that are only found on race day.
Posted by Flip Dawson Mar 25, 2008 10:17:32 AM
brian_mclean says:
What we’re seeing is the wussification of the breed! Horses of yesteryear campaigned, horses now tiptoe through a series of minefields. What makes the horse of today more fragile? Is it perception or reality? Have drugs genetically made the breed more brittle?
What can be done to reverse the ‘win a Grade 1 as a 3yr old, then off to the breeding shed’? Make Curlin the highest priced stud in recent memory? Offer a lucrative series for 4yr olds?
I’d start with banning Bute!
Posted by Brian McLean Mar 25, 2008 7:54:51 AM
steve_davidowitz says:
An excerpt from my book, "The Best and Worst of Throughbred Racing," published by DRF Press.2007
My top three crops of the past 50 odd years:
THIRD: The 1954 crop (3 year olds of 1957). . .Considered by many to be the best crop of all time, mostly because of the high quality of the horses that dominated the 1957 Triple Crown, I personally rank it third. The crop includes three Hall of Famers, including one of the great turf horses in racing history and one horse whose career was cut short that many observers believe was the best of his generation.
The leading members were: Hall of Famer Gallant Man (1957 Belmont stakes); Hall of Famer Bold Ruler ’57 Preakness and ’57 Horse of the Year); Iron Liege, (’57 Kentucky Derby); Hall of Famer Round Table (43 wins, $1.7 million in career earnings, grass champion in ’57 and ’58 and the 1958 Horse of the Year); plus General Duke, (’57 Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby), was injured and forced into retirement before he could start as the probable favorite for the ’57 Kentucky Derby.
SECOND: The 1970 crop. . .This was a close call. The sheer depth of horses at the highest level of performance is what makes it so tempting to put this crop on top. There were a handful of dominant performers in several divisions for several years.
The best of them were five Hall of Famers: Triple Crown winner Secretariat; three time Horse of the Year Forego; Champion 3 yr old Filly, Desert Vixen; Turf Champion Dahlia, (winner of the Washington D.C. International), and La Prevoyante, unbeaten 2 yr old champion of 1972; plus the very fast Mr. Prospector who became one of the world’s most prolific sires of top class horses; the ultra durable and consistent Ancient Title and Sham, winner of the Santa Anita Derby, who was second to Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, a very good horse born in the wrong year.
FIRST: The 1984 crop, (which agrees with Steve C's assessment). . .A very deep crop represented by eight outstanding male horses and three fillies who won Breeders’ Cup races against mixed age competition.
The male horses who excelled were: Alysheba (Kentucky Derby-Preakness), Bet Twice (Belmont stakes, Haskell Invitational), Java Gold (Travers); Gulch (’87 Wood Memorial, ’87 and ’88 Met Mile, and ’88 BC Sprint), Lost Code ($2 million in career earnings); Polish Navy (Jim Dandy, Woodward stakes); Demons Begone (Southwest, Rebel and Arkansas Derby, injured as the Kentucky Derby favorite), and Cryptoclearance, a winner of more than $3.3 million (when there were much lower purses than the present day).
The top fillies from this crop were Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Very Subtle and BC Distaff winner Sacahusita and the immortal, undefeated Personal Ensign, who won the 1988 BC Distaff.
The top turf horses from this crop were not American but the best of them was among the very best turf fillies ever to race in America, the French based Miesque, a two time winner of the BC Mile. Likewise, the top filly or mare was the two time BC Distaff winner, the Argentina import Bayakoa.
-----------------------------
As a footnote to the sbove, I did rank the 2003 crop (3 year olds of 2006), sixth on my list and the 1994 crop (3 year olds of 1997), fifth.
Regards/Steve Davidowitz
Posted by Steve Davidowitz Mar 25, 2008 3:41:15 AM
samg says:
Last years crop had some talent but not much depth.They seemed better than they actually were because of the weak handicap division.This is just my opinion of course but the synthetic preps are worthless.Of the horses who ran in last years oddly run Bluegrass Street Sense is the only one that did anything of note since then.I`m not saying a horse prepped on synthetic tracks can`t win but that they offer no clues as to how those horses will run in the Derby.Just take a look at the El Camino.
Posted by SamG Mar 25, 2008 3:05:03 AM
don_reed says:
Greetings, from Inner Trackovia.
Also odd has been the absence of serious Derby horses falling by the wayside, as has been so often the case each year in the weeks leading up to the Derby.
Aside from Crown of Thorns and a couple of irksome pretenders, it has been dull, dull, dull.
Wake me up when it's over.
Too bad the Bear Stearns per/share bid went from $2 to $10. I had a couple of neat jokes about each share now being the foundation for a whole bunch of show bets.
Darn.
Posted by Don Reed Mar 25, 2008 1:44:50 AM
george_quinn says:
This years derby as it stands right now, has the feel of a 56.00 horse in the winners circle maybe in the next three weeks, we will seperate the men from the boys. But I doubt it.
Cool Coal Man 56.20? Maybe.
George in Lexington Ky.
Posted by george quinn Mar 25, 2008 12:44:05 AM
jack says:
I agree with el_angelo about the 2006 crop being better than last year. Add Lawyer Ron, Jazil, Sunriver, SweetNorthernSaint(the betting fav), Sharp Humor and Sinister Minister to that list and I remember the excitement being sky high going into May. Although most didn't pan out, it was an exciting lineup.
Posted by Jack Mar 24, 2008 11:02:53 PM
flip_dawson says:
Too much emphasis put on final times prior to the Derby.
If I do my rain dance, and the Derby reads TRACK:SLOPPY, what good is final time. I would look to see if VISIONAIRE had on the proper galoshes.
If a horse wins a 6 furlong sprint, in 1:09, good for him. That time is only valid for that race. His next race could change the time due to interference, poor track (wood chips ), sea gulls on the track, horse gets bumped, jockey loses whip, etc. So, we are faced with the fact that the time of the last race means nothing.
I think players are doing too much work for nothing. Better to study trainer habits, track condition, and other things that mean more now in the current race, than the last race.
Just my idea--means nothing, but my time is better spent on uncovering quirks that could lead to a win. For years, I followed certain trainers at Woodbine and Gulfstream to the betting windows. How much more current could you get than bumping into a trainer at the 10 dollar window??
He's betting, and the race will be over in 2-3 minutes. At this point, you are getting up-to-date information, unlike the masses who are drinking in the beverage rooms.
Here is a true story: I was at the Gulf, and my favorite trainer was in the paddock with a female owner. They kept looking at the large tote board at the back of the grandstand. I had my binoculars on them. The horse opened at 8-1 and stayed there the whole time. Finally, with 5-6 minutes to go, the lady (all alone) went to the $50 window and bet $100.00 to win on TINDERBOX. I did the same at the $5 window (I hate taxes.)
The nag won, paying $18 and change. SANDY HAWLEY was up for the win.
A guy in my group later said after the race, he would never bet a female jockey.( Hawley had long hair at the time.)
This series of events , to me, were better than the final time of the last race.
But, what do I know?? We all have angles we like to use.
Posted by Flip Dawson Mar 24, 2008 10:37:50 PM
tony_kelso says:
I've been down on this 2008 crop for a while. Does anyone expect a horse from this group to run a massive route number in the next month? Seriously.
I would lean toward the 1987 group as the best ever. There was quality and depth, especially if you count Personal Ensign.
I'm surprised that no one has mentioned the crop of 1989 - maybe not as deep, but Sunday Silence and Easy Goer were Hall of Famers, and Clever Trevor, Awe Inspiring and Dispersal were all legitimate Grade 1 animals.
Posted by Tony Kelso Mar 24, 2008 9:10:57 PM
cannibal says:
To me what was impressive about the 2007 crop was how well they held form from their 2 year old season. This is a stark contrast from this year's group when only Pyro has held form among the elite 2 year horses, and to a lesser extent the Colonel and Georgie. Last year obviously Street held up, but even 2nd raters like Quay, Great Hunter and Scat Daddy came back to grab G1-2 as 3 year olds.
Posted by cannibal Mar 24, 2008 8:52:00 PM
silver_charm says:
I agree with the poster above about the 97 crop being at the very worst an equal with last year.
The 87 crop was the best in a long long while. Personal Ensign was also in that bunch.
Who was the Juvy Champ of that 87 crew?
Capote.
See any similarities perhaps with War Pass after that Tampa non-effort.
Probably one of the more interesting participants of that 87 crew was Gulch. He ran in all three Triple Crown races and I believe squeezed in a win in the Met Mile in between.
People these days advise them to run their horse once every five weeks, not four times in five weeks.
Gulch was knocked out so badly he came back to win the Sprint Title the following year.
Posted by Silver Charm Mar 24, 2008 8:08:01 PM
gofor_broke says:
The Affirmed group, foaled in '75. I think everyone knew before the Derby last year that it was a weak crop. It's the same this year. Nobody has looked impressive. That's why War Pass beating claimers was treated as a big event. It's a bad crop.
Posted by gofor broke Mar 24, 2008 7:58:43 PM
gofor_broke says:
I didn't think the 2007 crop was strong, except for Curlin. If you believe in trips having importance, you are going to look at Street Sense as very fortunate. Perfect trips in the BC juvenile and Derby.
I thought the best crop was Affirmed, Alydar, Sensitive Prince, Believe It, John Henry, Darby Creek Road, Star de Naskra, Dave's Friend, Mac Diarmida. That 1975 group was both quality and quantity.
Posted by gofor broke Mar 24, 2008 7:27:25 PM
About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
