Figs and Props

Here's a little Beyer Speed Figure scorecard for this year's prospective Derby field and last year's edition:

And if that's not enough food for thought, here are some Derby-related proposition bets being posted on Bodog.com:

Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in US Thoroughbred Racing in 2008
Yes +550
No -1000

How long will the performance of "My Old Kentucky Home" be?
Over 3 minutes
Under 3 minutes

Will the crowd attendance exceed that of the 156,635 of 2007?
Yes -180
No +140

Will Big Brown or his jockey Kent Desormeaux display sponsorship logos of UPS during the race?
Yes +450
No -750

Will Big Brown win the Kentucky Derby leading "wire-to-wire"?
Yes +450
No -750

What will the odds of Big Brown be at post time in the Kentucky Derby?
Over 7/2 EVEN
Under 7/2 -140

How many lengths will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby win by?
More than 2 lengths 11/10
2 lengths 7/1
Less than 2 lengths 11/10

Will George Steinbrenner be at the Derby and shown on NBC?
Yes +250
No -350

Will the winning jockey take a flying jump off his mount in the winner's circle, in the same style as Frankie Dettori?
Yes +275
No -400

Will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby win the 133rd Preakness Stakes?
Yes +275
No -400

Will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby win the 140th Belmont Stakes?
Yes +550
No -1000

Will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby be bred in Kentucky?
Yes -1000
No +550

Will 20 horses start?
Yes EVEN
No -140

Which will pay more the winner of the Kentucky Oaks or Kentucky Derby?
Kentucky Derby -140
Kentucky Oaks EVEN

Will the filly Eight Belles run in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks?
Kentucky Derby +170
Kentucky Oaks -240

Will the filly Proud Spell run in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks?
Kentucky Derby +250
Kentucky Oaks -350

What will be the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby's starting gate?
Gates 1-5 1/1
Gates 6-10 5/4
Gates 11-15 9/2
Gates 16-20 7/1

Winning Time in the 2008 Kentucky Derby (G1) Churchill Downs
Under 2.01.30 EVEN
Over 2.01.30 -140

What will the Kentucky Derby Mutuel Win pay?
Over $18.50
Under $18.50

Will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby complete the race faster than the 2:02.17 time of Street Sense in 2007?
Yes -140
No EVEN

How many scratches will there be in the 134th Kentucky Derby?
0 Horses 1/1
1 Horse 1/1
2 Horses 15/2
3 Horses 25/1
More than 3 Horses 80/1

Will a horse trained by Todd Pletcher, capture the Kentucky Derby?
Yes +800
No -2000

What will be the time of the first ¼ mile?
Over 0:22.50 -150
Under 0:22.50 +110

What will the total on-track wagering handle of the Kentucky Derby be?
Over 12 Million Dollars -140
Under 12 Million Dollars EVEN

Posted by Steven Crist Apr 29, 2008 12:04:22 AM | Permalink

Keywords:

Comments

malcolm_harris says:

I agree with callmetony, Col. John is not a throwaway.

I think the problem is not with the horse but Beyer and his speed ratings. Col. John and Big Brown ran the mile and an eighth the last time at the same speed to the second decimal place, 1:48.16. This is the best of any of this field at the distance, but Big Brown's run in the Florida Derby gets a Beyer of 106 while Col. John gets a 95. The Beyer speed rating rates Col. John as running more than two seconds (11 lengths) slower!

Mayby Andrew believes his own ratings which is why he does so poorly handicaping the Derby. His columns get predictable. If his horse wins, it's another Secretariat. If a horse he likes wins, it is a great Derby. If (the more likely outcome), his horse does badly, it is another example of how poor the current stock of two year olds are even if the winner comes within a second of Big Red's record.

You figure!

Posted by Malcolm Harris May 2, 2008 12:59:12 AM

azpete says:

Colonel John.Since his sire is TIZNOW.11/4 miles is the ideals distanced. It's boughts back, the most sweetest memorable i was ever had.he was out dueled Giantcauseaways Every steps of the ways durinig the stretch runs onBC classic2000.Now i'd hopping Corey NAKA.Would be likes Great CHRIS McCARRON.Great $$$ rider(placed every horses in great positions).Last but not least.Should not Whipping C J from the left hand.C J was swerved-outs badly in the SA handicap.Til he was changing to the right..WOW..sayonara..(notes:by the ways Corey's good @Scrapping, the paint.Shuffle back and wait for ,for for,,??? =TRASHED THE TICKETS.

Posted by azpete Apr 30, 2008 1:14:49 PM

flip_dawson says:

To Bochall:
Don't worry about COURT VISION being an underlay. Lots of people read these blogs and play for $2.00.So, watch the odds on The King and His COURT.
Your DENIS OF CORK is a good choice. You could reverse an exactor with COURT VISION and collect bigtime.

If you seem to think COURT VISION can't get his picture taken, you could play dollar trifectas like this:
$50.00 on CV onto Quick-pik onto QP
Same money on QP-CV-QP
Same money on QP-QP-CV
Cost is $150.00, but you get 150 tickets, and if CV is in the money you collect, perhaps major money.
Good luck.

I'm still waiting for more info, but the chats are another source. Beyer last night threw out Colonel John, which was a smart idea. He might win, but Andy was strictly playing the law of averages, which is what I do. There has been a lot of bitching about the Campbell soup can tracks, but I go a different route. I try to take advantage of plays like Colonel John, and like Beyer, play the law of averages that he will be worse than 4th.

Posted by Flip Dawson Apr 30, 2008 12:39:17 PM

samg says:

If you believe in bounce theory I have a bridge I`d love to sell you.

Posted by SamG Apr 30, 2008 12:22:41 PM

billm says:

Coachie--I'm already on board with your boycott of CDI tracks(actually I stated all Kentucky tracks). I'm sure my track buds have already laid odds on when I'll crack, I won't. Hope more on this and the other board will boycott also--it's the only way folks.
Mr. Crist--Are you silently banging your head against the wall with the opening cards at Belmont? Your favorite race, turf sprints are back! Two today(maybe they are off turf?) and three tomorrow. Hope it doesn't ruin your "Derby buzz". I think you mentioned last year, something about trying to figure them out. Any luck? Well, best of luck this week and the Belmont meet(it's going to get 90% of my bankroll this summer since I can't bet Churchill). On the Derby, is it just me, or is Court Vision becoming the worst sucker bet(everybody's wiseguy pick)? I went to the backside yesterday(Tuesday) and got talking with one of the older fellas working in Mott's barn, I initially asked if Quite A Bride was there, he said she had been retired and bred(to who?), anyway, out of the blue he states, points over his shoulder "right there is the best horse in the barn!" Anyone wanna guess who it was? Later....

Posted by BillM Apr 30, 2008 11:32:16 AM

bochall says:

Well, there goes my play on Court Vision. I have already read 8 or more comments touting him, which ensures underlaid odds on a horse who is TOO SLOW TO WIN. He was my exotics bomb but the wise guy horse always falters at underlaid odds. Denis Of Cork is the one who is rebounding and can run well at great odds. Didn't the Sheets say a bounce was coming in Illinois? Rebound at CD????

Posted by Bochall Apr 30, 2008 11:02:15 AM

flip_dawson says:

To c:
If you read my info re the reins, this was only to be used after a winning stake race. So, if Gomez wins a stake in a race right before the Derby, he is extra special in the Derby itself.
If he wins on Court Vision (looks like he will), then play in race right after Derby. You might make fun of this plan, but Prado won 3 in a row in one of the large preps.I am known to be very tight with a dollar, and do not like to bet money from my wallet.So, if I do, I have done lots of homework to justify opening up the dusty old wallet.
Glad to see two of you are now coming into my camp re COURT VISION.
However, it may be too late. I have a relative who works at the mutuels at CD, and paid him well to block all bets on COURT VISION. Except mine, of course.
I have never been as sure about a nag before.I have tried to find ways to stay off him, but can't do it. Played him in future book at 18-1 for $100.00. Now am working on exotics.
If he loses, he was still a good bet. Maybe he gets blocked, etc.
I see him as looping the field coming into the stretch, and picking up horses on the outside just in time to nip the filly (40-1) at the wire.

I also have made overtures to write the same column for 2 papers as I did in Steve's blog.This column is titled Flip Dawson at The Kentucky Derby.
So, it's been lots of fun this week.
To those who still say that flip is off the wall, remember my past life as Turf Accountant. Gave me lots of knowledge that I never forgot.If you don't know what a Turf Accountant is, check with your local Highway Patrol.

Posted by Flip Dawson Apr 30, 2008 10:43:16 AM

jim says:

Steve,

Recapturetheglory - i think this one can hang around near the wire. In the hawthorne derby he ran away from the field like he was racing the clock.

Posted by jim Apr 30, 2008 1:11:08 AM

c says:

Flip,
Is Gomez riding COURT VISION in the Derby? I must have missed that.
I wonder if Gomez's well-publicized desire to make as much money as possible this year will be transferred through the reins and translate into COURT VISION having a desire to win as many races as possible this year. I heard the other riders in this year's Derby aren't concerned about money. Half of them are already rich and the other half are communists.

Posted by C Apr 29, 2008 11:57:18 PM

davey700 says:

Are the selections for Oaks day and Derby day going to be posted someplace on DRF? The ones I'm talking about are the expert selections that are usually in the print version. The ones that are like two to three pages and then the consenus. I think it was the Breeders Cup where they forgot to put them up and I asked about them and you got them up the morning of the races. Thanks in advance.

Posted by Davey700 Apr 29, 2008 11:45:31 PM

davey700 says:

Elsie from Chelsea

I read the same article today. All I can say is Jim Pendergest is part of what a good friend calls the Nit Wit Brigrade. He, like so many in racing today, have no clue as to what is going on. Its all money for them and screw the horseplayer. His comments in the article were, what I believe, some of the most offensive statements I have ever read in regards to horseplayers. And the real sad part is the others sitting in the same room with him thinking this idiot is a f-ing genius. Your comments were right on and thanks for bringing it up. Everyone should go there and read it.

Posted by Davey700 Apr 29, 2008 11:40:16 PM

flip_dawson says:

Gomez on COURT VISION!!!!
Yup, saw the entries on another website, and indeed, Garret Gomez is listed to ride COURT VISION.
Now, where did I hide that wallet???

Posted by Flip Dawson Apr 29, 2008 10:20:08 PM

micclay says:

I will be out of town this weekend and will not bet on the Derby on Saturday. Standing pat with a $10 future book ticket on Cool Coal Man at 75-1. At 75-1 I like my chances. Also have Court Vision at 25-1 and I am very happy with him. Flip Dawson is my main man. Probably going to wager some more on Court Vision. Can get him on the internet now at 14-1, but I think I'll wait for the draw. I see Big Brown as a bet against. Wish War Pass has stayed together, Court Vision, now in blinkers, would have loved him cutting out a 1/2 in 46 and change. Not to be concerned, someone will go crazy trying to get position on the first turn and not be able to slow down. But you know what - at the end of the day, the Derby is typically a chaos race, with too many horses, all kinds of trips and a lot of horses that shouldn't be in the race. A better race to watch for the entertainment then to try and make a score on.

Posted by Micclay Apr 29, 2008 10:01:25 PM

callmetony says:

Just read beyers transcript . He says Col John is a throwout !!! i can't buy into that to me Beyer speed figs or no beyer figs . he clearly looked like the best horse in any of the Preps to me . If he takes to the dirt lookout . he may not win but there is no way he's a throw out . I think at this point its best to make our own decisions rather then listen to the so called experts . I like B BROWN , COL JOHN , COURT Vision and maybe Tale of Ekati . I still have a lot of faith in Prado and it miffs me why he chose Adriano . There may be something he sees that we don;t . Prado is a master jock and he has been very hot of late . The fun begins .

Posted by Callmetony Apr 29, 2008 9:30:14 PM

samg says:

Dick, good luck.If you want to hear some guffaws I`m going to go the opposite way and pick Bob Black Jack as my best longshot.He`s the worst bred to get the distance and has never raced on dirt but he did rate a little last out and barely lost to this years biggest underlay and he did run one very fast race,even if it was a sprint.If you don`t think this one is wide open think about this.Would Giacomo be 50-1 against this bunch?I don`t think so.

Posted by SamG Apr 29, 2008 8:28:46 PM

coachie says:

Enough is enough!! On Oaks and Derby days residents of Florida will likely not be able to wager on the Churchill cards. One may or may not be able to wager depending on which account they have.Calder and Churchill are owned by the same company for heavens sake. How about a call for a nationwide boycott to let all the powers that be finally understand what fuels this great game. WE DO!! Beginning Sunday a week or two would be a nice time to meet the family again, watch some baseball, and fatten up the wallets for when we attack Saratoga and Del Mar this summer. In the words of Doctor Trotter in Let It Ride (the best racing movie ever!) " There is no racing without betting!"

Posted by coachie Apr 29, 2008 8:11:50 PM

elsie_from_chelsea says:

Jessica Chapel's Railbird blog currently has a link to an article on the Thoroughbred Times website that I feel compelled to mention in this space. The article states a fact that has long been obvious: Races run on polytrack produce smaller average winning margins and smaller average margins throughout the field. In other words, many Polytrack races end with half or more of the field within a few lengths of the winner.

The killer though is the quote from Jim Pendergest, a guy responsible for marketing Polytrack. Jim says, "We think it's important to have horses finish close together...Close finishes give the bettor the feeling that they weren't too far off. When a bettor plays horse that get beats by 12 lengths, they get frustrated."

Not only is this the single most insulting defense of Polytrack that I have ever heard, it is the single most insulting characterization of horseplayers I have ever heard. The bettors who support this game bet horse racing because handicapping is a skill. They are not equivalent to slot players who gets excited when the 7-7-7 comes up just above the payline or to the lotto players who get 2/3 on a scratch-off ticket.

The fact that Polytrack makes results more inscrutable and adds a higher degree of chance is NOT a positive. It is the single biggest reason that many of us refuse to bet Polytrack races. It is almost certainly one of the reasons Keeneland's daily handle took a dive.

As for how I feel when I bet a horse that gets beat by 12 lengths, I do not get frustrated. I try to determine why the horse ran so poorly and how I can apply that knowledge in the future. On the other hand, when I bet a horse that loses a three-way photo on Polytrack, I feel frustrated because asking, "Why did that happen?" is the equivalent to asking why the roulette ball landed on red instead of black.

I try not to be pessimistic about the future of racing, but when you read something like this, it is hard not to be. How about an official response and apology from Mr. Pendergest's employer? One is definitely due.

Posted by Elsie_From_Chelsea Apr 29, 2008 7:49:40 PM

mordicai says:

Isn't there a bet in Vegas where you can pick the horse who finishes last in the derby? If so, I want to airmail a couple thousand in on Court Vision.

If the big three don't fire this year, it's anbody's race. Could be bombs away

Posted by Mordicai Apr 29, 2008 5:14:02 PM

kyle says:

Wow. I thought Pyro looked good. Big Brown just commands the track. He's got a little Pegasus in him.

Posted by kyle Apr 29, 2008 4:05:55 PM

flip_dawson says:

Just read of the work today of Big Brown. I still think he has sore feet, and I read in DRF yesterday," Don't take sore feet to Churchill on the first Sat. in May."
It inferred that even though the sore feet may be gone, he might only be 90%, and get worse in the race if pressured.
Do not squeeze zee lemon too hard--it may squirt you in zee face and sting your eyes.

Court Vision all the way--low Beyers and all.

Posted by Flip Dawson Apr 29, 2008 2:41:12 PM

wayne_c_ says:

IMO synthetic figures are "flatter" than dirt figures.

The very best horses (Beyer's in the 100 range and above) seem to run faster figures on dirt than synthetic.

However, the figures are more or less comparable for medium level horses (Beyers in the low to mid 90s)

In addition, I think sprint relationships are not exactly comparable to route relationships. You are going to see more high Beyers on synthetic for sprints than routes.

Finally, I think there was a period at SA when the track was totally screwed up and the paces and times were very fast. Those relationships were also probably different.

The bottom line is that synthetic Beyer figures are fine for isolating contenders when today's race is on synthetic and you are comparing horses based on their synthetic figures. They do not translate from surface to surface for more reasons than just the ability of horses.

Posted by Wayne C. Apr 29, 2008 1:17:55 PM

dick_w says:

Well, I guess it's time to subject myself to ridicule and humiliation by picking a horse that I think will out run his odds. First of all, however, God help us all if Court Vision actually wins this race ! My 'longshot' pick (which makes even less sense than Court Vision) is Adriano. I know, I know -he's slow and his only race on dirt was a disaster. Still, I see this group as mostly a bunch who will not appreciate that extra 1/8 mile. And I think Adriano is one of the few whose pedigree suggests that he might actually like the extra distance. I also like the fact that Edgar P chose him over Monba and Tale of Ekati. I really don't expect him to win, but I think he might surprise and end up figuring in the lower rungs of the exotics. There, I've said it. Good luck to everyone.

Posted by Dick W Apr 29, 2008 12:27:01 PM

kyle says:

Just saw the video of Pyro galloping this morning. Starting to look like the workout in the Blue Grass worked. He looks like he's got the perfect combination of responsiveness and pent up desire to run.

Posted by Kyle Apr 29, 2008 10:48:43 AM

mlnj says:

Worst bet: Laying one to 20 against Pletcher.

Best: 2.75 to one that the Derby winner also wins the Preakness.

Posted by ml/nj Apr 29, 2008 8:45:50 AM

xiipointstables says:

RE: Richard Fields and Suffolk Downs.

I really hope he succeeds. But I think he's up against a Monster in the Massachusetts Government in his attempt to really rebuild Suffolk Downs.

RE Racino. All he is saying with the statement is don't think of it as "just" a racino.

I've been to one of those (the Harness Track in Saratoga) and it as terrible. Fields (who has more casino than racetrack experience for sure) needs the legislature and voters to think way bigger and imagine something bigger. Like Foxwoods and a Mohegan to the south in CT.

From the first week on the job. "In his statement, Fields said his plan for Suffolk would include retail, restaurant and live entertainment, family activities, and other high-end resort amenities."

The sad truth is these days you need the slots to increase the purses enough to get the big outfits to fill the races with quality stock. And even Deleware Park looks like they're going to have trouble filling races this year.

I would love to see Suffolk Downs flourish again and believe that Fields and the new owners are doing a great job (see great new website, Mass Cap, raised purses, better customer service as examples).

But if they don't get slots or some sort of partnership with the Mass State Lottery to boost purses, bout a 1000-1 shot it will happen.

Next time: Rockingham Park!

XIIPointStables

Posted by XIIPointStables Apr 29, 2008 7:50:19 AM

flip_dawson says:

Flip Dawson
at
THE KENTUCKY DERBY
Well, it’s 5:17 AM, and time to get to work, sorting out a 20 horse field in Saturday’s Derby.
While BIG BROWN and PYRO will be the favorites, I have been watching the logical winner COURT VISION. COURT VISION has the best 2 year old foundation, when compared to the rest of the field. I crunched some numbers about 2 months ago, and COURT VISION came out on top. He also has the perfect dosage index. Granted, his prep races this year were not the best (3rd in the Fountain of Youth ) in Florida. He comes from away back and will have one big run at the end. Just recently, trainer Bill Mott has been working him with blinkers on, and his works are as good as any in this field.
Also, at time of writing, his jockey should be Garret Gomez–the best in the country. Gomez and his agent are out to make as much money this year as they can. So, if Gomez takes COURT VISION, that is just another vote of confidence. Odds will be around 15-1. (Some of us got 18-1 on him in the first future pool.)

BIG BROWN does not interest me in the least. His feet are sore, and his odds will be around 6-5
The trainer will have a big bet on him, so watch the tote board for fluttering odds.
.
PYRO is dangerous, but odds will be too low to my liking. I’m looking for box-car figures, and he might be on some of my exotic tickets.(back end).

COOL COAL MAN is coming into the gun sights, having had experience over the Churchill Downs track. He won there, and his odds will be around 15-1.Possible win bet.

COLONEL JOHN arrives from the west coast to do battle, but has never run on dirt. However, his sire TIZNOW has many offspring who did well on dirt. So, he could win. Not having run over a dirt surface is a problem–enough to keep him out of the winner’s circle. But at 6-1, he still is too low for my liking. Play in Superfecta, but not to win.

DENIS OF CORK just got in by his earnings ; has won at the Derby track, and could be in the top four. Be prepared for nice high odds. Definitely a play in top four.

RECAPTURETHEGLORY is an unknown, but did win recently, and odds will be 30 -1 or thereabouts. Might plod into 4th to swell the Superfecta.

EIGHT BELLES is the only filly in the field, and will be very high in odds (40-1 ?) This prim miss would look very good in second behind COURT VISION.

VISIONAIRE won a biggie in the slop this year and if it rains and his #2 shoes are on, he’s the winner. Otherwise, use in trifecta or Superfecta.

GAYEGO has some experience in running on dirt, and did well in some preps this year. Still not good enough to win, but could upset in running 2nd at 30-1

$1.00 Superfecta possibles: COURT VISION onto EIGHT BELLES, DENIS OF CORK, COLONEL JOHN, GAYEGO, RECAPTURETHGLORY , VISIONAIRE (cost $120.00)

$2.00Trifecta possibles: COURT VISION onto COLONEL JOHN, DENIS OF CORK, PYRO, COOL COAL MAN

BEST BET: COURT VISION

LONGSHOT PLAY: RECAPTURETHEGLORY

Other plays–take COURT VISION on top with three other Superfecta quick-piks. 50 of these plays will cost $50.00.

A good longshot play is to see who wins the race before the Derby. If that jockey is riding in the Derby, play him to win only. The same goes for the winning jockey in the Derby. If he is riding in the next race, he is an excellent play in the race after the Derby.

Posted by Flip Dawson Apr 29, 2008 7:00:47 AM

arazi says:

For few years now, I've been following the advice of one of the most successful handicapper that I know. And the advice was to STOP reading any articles a week before any big racing day (especially KD and BC). The point was to take it as just another race and not get carried away by too much information.

I found the advice one of the most sincere advices given by any handicapper.

Now that the drf.com "HOME" page is a big KD billboard, it's time to stop reading and start handicapping - with a clean mind.

This year derby reminds me of some of the past derbies when Grindstone, Charismatic, and Thunder Gulch won. This year too, all systems are go for soft-logic rather than hard-logic. Soft logic being the common sense while the hard-logic being the numbers.

Relying on the soft logic, I feel that Todd Pletcher has the best chance to win his first derby this year - just like his former boss who won three open derbies listed above. Couple of weeks back, he didn't have a horse to run in the derby and now he is running two and both appears to be reaching the top form at the right time. His best horses failed for several years in the past, now it's the time to hit it when nobody is expecting it.

Expect the unexpected.

Posted by Arazi Apr 29, 2008 5:37:05 AM

don_reed says:

Q: Who was quoted, in 2008, as saying " Just don't call it a 'racino.' I never use the word 'racino'...You just can't put slots in a racetrack and expect them to work. Racinos don't work."?

Hint: "It was not until 2006 that [he] threw his hat into the world of Thoroughbred racing, when he co-formed Excelsior Racing Associates...with a formable team and a business plan that would have included a state-of-the-art, resort-style casino at Aqueduct..."

A: Richard Fields, current owner of Suffolk Downs (source, Bloodhorse profile, April 19th, 2008).

What's the difference between a casino with a racetrack and a racino?

I'm game for any and all explanations, because I sure don't have one.

The Cork is BACK in the bottle, vintage Derby 2008!

Posted by Don Reed Apr 29, 2008 3:02:58 AM

dennis says:

Well they have taken the "Eight Belles +170 to run in the Derby off the betting menu :( ....My next bet is Tale of Ekati to finish ahead of Adriano -even money. I'm not convinced Adriano has any liking for a dirt surface.

Posted by Dennis Apr 29, 2008 2:27:27 AM

dennis says:

Here's food for thought on prop "Will the filly Eight Belles run in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks?Kentucky Derby +170"

Privman article: "Porter said Wednesday from Florida ....... The only thing that would keep me from running is a real bad post."

If 10 out 20 posts are not "real bad posts" you have a 50% chance that she'll run in Derby (assuming she's sound), but you're getting +170. I'm taking a stab.

Posted by Dennis Apr 29, 2008 2:00:00 AM

scott says:

I like this prop:

What will the odds of Big Brown be at post time in the Kentucky Derby?
Over 7/2 EVEN
Under 7/2 -140

After CJ's work, I'm thinking if he's not the ML favorite he will be at post time.

It seems other than the words coming out of Dutrow's mouth, most of the talk about BB is negative. Enough so that I don't see Big Brown going off at anything less than 4-1.

I'd take the "over" there.

Of the others, I like the "will Big Brown go wire-to-wire?" prop. Granted the odds are -750 on "no", I still think it's a pretty safe bet that someone else like Recapturetheglory or Bob Black Jack will lead early...

Posted by scott Apr 29, 2008 1:33:28 AM

mathieu says:

Steve,

Which of the props in your estimation offers the greatest value?

Posted by Mathieu Apr 29, 2008 12:34:48 AM

sfdan says:

Steve -

Great blog and great info on the prop bets...would love to make them or any bets on the Derby, but unless the parties in the ADW mess get it together I will be stuck!!!

Isn't it ironic that today the CDI President Bob Evans said that ADW was "a major growth channel for pari-mutuel wagering, as well as a means to drive traffic to the racetrack" and yet most of the people who can bet online legally (as of now) will not have access to wager on racing's premier day?

It is especially frustrating for those of us who have both become accustomed to wagering online and do not live near a track to be at the mercy of these myopic executives who apparently know little about the game they are destroying.

Dan
San Francisco

Posted by SFDan Apr 29, 2008 12:31:09 AM

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About

Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He is the author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."

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