Nuggets

--The Last Post: I admire the passion evident in the 55 comments on my post about the Wood and Santa Anita Derby, but I also have to agree with some of the latter comments that wondered why everyone seems to be in a such hurry to make definitive Derby pronouncements with more than three weeks until post time. There are no more Futures Pools to bet, there are several key preps still to be run, plenty of homework still to be done, and when it's time to make picks and decisions, it's still going to be a great big mess of uncertainty and ambiguity.
Let me clarify: I have absolutely no idea who I'm going to be liking, picking,using, siding with or against on May 3. The point of my post was to provoke some further analysis and discussion about the two races, not to argue that Tale of Ekati is necessarily a better bet or a more likely Derby winner than Colonel John. It's still a long way until....
--"The First Saturday in May": This Hennegan brothers documentary about the 2006 Derby, which I raved about when it was screened in Saratoga last summer, is getting limited art-house distribution later this month:
OPENS FRIDAY, APRIL 18th
Austin - Dobie
Berkeley - Shattuck
Boston - Kendall Square
Chicago - Century
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky - Florence Cinemas
Cleveland - Cedar Lee
Columbus (IN) - Yes Cinema
Denver - Chez Artist
Detroit - Maple Art
Indianapolis - Keystone Cinema
Lexington (KY) - Kentucky Theatre
Los Angeles - Sunset Laemmle
Louisville (KY) - Cinema De Lux 20: Stonybrook
Minneapolis - Lagoon
NYC - Cinema Village
Philadelphia - Ritz at the Bourse
St. Louis - Plaza Frontenac
San Diego - Hillcrest
San Francisco - Opera Plaza
Washington, DC - E Street
OPENS THURSDAY, APRIL 24th
Saratoga Springs (NY) - Saratoga Film Forum
OPENS FRIDAY, APRIL 25th
Milwaukee - Downer
Muskegon (MI) - Harbor Theatre
Atlanta - Midtown Arts
Seattle - Varsity
The Hennegan brothers are donating 25 percent of the box-office revenues to the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation. Kudos too to Churchill Downs for getting involved in the promotion and distribution of the film. Go see it. And speaking of worthy racing documentaries, set your recorders on Kentucky Oaks day for....
--"Laffit: All About Winning," James Wilson's excellent look at the life and career of Laffit Pincay Jr. This 2005 feature will receive its first network airing May 2nd from 4 to 6 p.m. on Fox Sports Network nationally, and Wilson says Fox has promised additional slots if the ratings are decent. The premiere showing is up against ESPN's Oaks Day coverage, but try to catch it if you can.
--"Premier Pick Four": There were no national wagers linking last Saturday's raft of Grade 1 races and Derby preps, but at least Keeneland and Oaklawn are putting on a national pick-four this Saturday of two stakes from each track, including the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby. There's a $1 minimum on the bet and here's the scheduled lineup (all post times Eastern):
4:40 p.m. - G2 $400k Commonwealth Stakes - Keeneland
5:18 p.m. - G1 $750k Blue Grass Stakes - Keeneland
6:08 p.m. - $75k Instant Racing Stakes - Oaklawn
6:44 p.m. - G2 $1 million Arkansas Derby - Oaklawn
--Lone Star opens its thoroughbred meet tonight with a new Pick Five wager with a $1 minimum and, even better, a takeout of only 12 percent. The bet will carry over when it is not hit and will be run on the last five races of each card.
--Was Hawthorne speed-biased on Illinois Derby Day? Several pundits have dismissed Recapturetheglory's front-running triumph and relatively (for this season) high 102 Beyer in the Illinois Derby because he (unquestionably) got loose through moderate early fractions and (possibly) was aided by a track that some (including the owner of beaten favorite Denis of Cork) believe was playing very kindly to front-runners. Here's an interesting rebuttal from Mitch Demick, whose defense of the track surface may require a pinch of salt since he's Hawthorne's director of communications, but Demick is also a studious and enthusiastic horseplayer:
This year's Illinois Derby is getting ruthlessly bashed because the
first three finishers were one, two and three after the first quarter.
Huh? I'm not going to pretend that inside speed didn't play favorably,
but take a look at the day's results, and then tell me "a ridiculous
speed bias turned this year's running into a carousel," as Lauren
Stitch opined.
Absolutely nothing illogical won on April 5th, Illinois Derby Day.
Closers did emerge victorious on multiple occasions on the same day
some sort of injustice was perpetrated on the favorites. The winner of
the Derby, itself, Recapturetheglory, had run second to Cool Coal Man
as a two-year-old, and then returned at three to run a respectable
third in his grass debut. In addition, Recapturetheglory had won a
two-turn race over the Hawthorne surface, and had the services of a
jockey (E.T. Baird) who has made a pretty good living, at times, at
this same track.
That Denis of Cork, unraced in nearly seven weeks, and without previous
experience over the surface, and Atoned, winless since an off-the-grass
event in August '07, were uninvolved in this year's Illinois Derby,
could very well be circumstance and nothing else.
At the very least, let the race breathe for a month or so and see what
becomes of the "obvious" contenders. As a handicapper and as a
spokesman for Hawthorne, I believe the 2008 Illinois Derby will
ultimately rest on its merits.
Race 1: Last Samurai closed from 7 back behind the sole speed horse, Sapia Sika
Race 2: Saratoga Vicar was 5th and wide, and closed to win
Race 3: Skating Sam was 4 wide and raced in the second flight of runners
Race 4: Happiness sets extremely slow fractions and runs his race
Race 5: Distorted Groom runs big, High Expectations closes from over 12 lengths back to be beaten just over a length
Race 6: La Wildcat (Who has won over the track) runs a big race but Douglas has J Z Warrior in 5 path at 3/8ths pole, costing him ground
Race 7: Winner sets slow fractions, jocks on Z Humor, Atoned and Denis of Cork all have horses wide in turn, costing them ground
Race 8: Lazer Sun breaks from outside, rates wide and closes. Pacesetter runs 7th
Race 9: Lone speed wires bad bunch
Race 10: Bic Vic breaks 10th, rates in 7th and wins while wide. Pacesetter runs 9th
Posted by Steven Crist Apr 10, 2008 7:09:38 PM | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
wayne80 says:
I thought the jockeys rode horribly in the ILL Derby, and the track was not to blame. Could not believe they were taking back off that slow pace, and racing wide to boot. They ALL overestimated the talent of their mounts.
Posted by Wayne80 Apr 13, 2008 1:21:07 PM
brooklyn_backstretch says:
Dave:
First Saturday isn't currently slated to run in Toronto, but if you want it to, call your local indie theater and tell them that you want them to carry it. And call back, and get your friends to call, and tell Brad and John what you're doing at their website.
http://www.thefirstsaturdayinmay.com/contact-us/
Posted by Brooklyn Backstretch Apr 12, 2008 11:02:36 PM
don_reed says:
For those of you who are unfamiliar with the above reference to NJ Account Wagering, it is the ineptly run jobs program that substantively contributed to the NJ Sports & Exposition's losing millions of dollars sponsoring the Breeder's Cup last fall.
Towards the end of March 2008, they unveiled their new web site design.
It was an instant fiasco, and was yanked off the air about four days after its debut.
They re-instated the previous system (introduced in November 2007, replacing the site that had calamitously failed on BC Day 2).
Things proceeded somewhat smoothly for about a week, until...
Incredibly, having learned nothing, they've-instated Site #3 about five days or so ago.
The merry go-round of system crashes, etc. resumed.
Today (04/12/08), they claim that the NJAW system was knocked out - on of all days, with the Blue Grass and the AR Derby being run - by their getting hit by a lightning bolt.
This might well have happened. Some very big thunder/lightning storms did roll through our area @ midnight-1 a.m., Saturday morning
The problem is, they don't have any credibility left, and so the possibility that the site was pulverized by their own incompetence cannot be dismissed.
And how bad could the lightning strike have been, that nine hours later, they couldn't get their system up and running again in time for a big race day? Isn't this why we invented back-up electrical generators? Is NJAW really a front for a renegade arm of FEMA?
I'd call them and find out - only, after the BC, they further poisoned their client relations by instating a rule that if you were having technical questions or had a finance discrepancy, all communications henceforth had to be put into writing and sent via email.
Thus, problems that telephonically had the potential of being resolved in a few short minutes now took much longer to resolve, with an elongated, time-wasting process involving written inquires.
One example - out of dozens - of how badly they have run their operation can be provided:
I was having problems with their illegible type size throughout 2007 and 2008. Numerous - and I mean numerous - inquires about this was forwarded to them.
SIX MONTHS LATER (from November 2007 on out), it finally dawned on them that they should let me in on the big secret - that while holding down the control key, I could then increase the type size by twirling the mouse wheel with my right index finger.
Regards,
The Mouse Twirler
Posted by Don Reed Apr 12, 2008 7:24:49 PM
dave says:
Steve-do you feel, as I do, that there isn't a superstar horse leading up to the Derby?Any idea if "The First Saturday in May" is coming to Toronto?
Posted by Dave Apr 12, 2008 6:26:00 PM
jim says:
to whoever runs nj web bet:
PLEASE GET A NEW SYSTEM OR GIVE IT BACK TO YOUBET.
Posted by jim Apr 12, 2008 2:54:49 PM
dick_w says:
James
Thanks for the synopsis on Gayego. The Arkansas Derby will certainly tell us if he is in fact a viable Derby candidate.
If I had to pick a horse to do a quick and simple (but probably not very intelligent) synopsis in the Arkansas Derby it would probably be Liberty Bull. He has the best last race beyer (but not by much) - a 95 earned with his victory in the Winstar Derby at Sunland (a $600,000 non graded stakes win). He has won at the distance (same race), and he has a couple of good efforts over the Oaklawn strip. He also broke his maiden at Churchill Downs. The knock on him might be that he got beat by Denis of Cork in the G3 Southwest by 5 1/2 lengths.
Interesting fact about his sire, Holy Bull, is that in spite of his disappointing 12th in the 1994 Derby as the favorite, he went on to be both 3 yr old of the year and horse of the year that year. Like Gayego, the Arkansas Derby will tell us if he has what it takes to move on to the 1st Saturday in May.
Posted by Dick W Apr 12, 2008 12:29:27 PM
flip_dawson says:
...Blog fans can now watch the WO entries very carefully. The first of Steve Asmussen's runners is out today at WO. He has 30 head of stock bedded at the Toronto plant.
In the next few days, I will drop some info to this site re the Secret Play. The author Albert G. Illich calls it "the best play in racing".
I have to agree. The rules work very well, and all that is needed is a win bet only.
Posted by Flip Dawson Apr 12, 2008 9:38:22 AM
joe says:
Steve:
For everyone looking for an excuse for why Denis of Cork was an overhyped favorite .. I would suggest that they look at his prior race that everyone incredibly seemed to like. Horses on the lead in that race went 45 and change. Dennis closed on them from way back and went the mile in 137 and change. Hardly a big time considering it was aided by other horses running a fast pace.
More importantly, Sierra Sunset, one of the horses chasing the fast pace goes out past Denis after the finish.
When was the last time a toasted pace chaser went out past a horse making a huge close after suicidal fractions.
I just wish I had looked at the race more closely prior to the Illini Derby. And prior to Sierra's next race.
Posted by Joe Apr 12, 2008 12:33:14 AM
matt_smith says:
steve--i just wanted to thank you for the excellent observations---who knew womething that you were going to stop at the end of saratoga last summer would become such an excellent forum for horse racing lovers to post picks, vent or just say what they will (flip dawson, etc)----i hope you keep up the great work---i figured i throw out some picks as i have to work tomorrow and my online acct is barren---i like precious kitten all the way in the jw---rebellion in teh commonwealth, and halo najib in the blue grass---thanx again and see you at siro's--matt smith
Posted by matt smith Apr 12, 2008 12:20:51 AM
steven_crist says:
fatbelly,
Thanks for the correct info --I fixed the item.
Posted by steven_crist Apr 11, 2008 11:17:25 PM
tom_atwater says:
First Saturday in May is the most enjoyable documentary on racing I have seen, and I have seen all that I could.
It really gives you the insider feel for the sport. It is fun to see the connections of the various contenders they followed, and how different their personalities are.
The Hennegans are great guys too. They hung out with moviegoers in a nearby bar after the AFI festival last year.
Support this movie. It deserves it.
I'm going again.
...
My 2 bits about speed being the "universal track bias": I think this is an illusion.
There are usually a few horses in a race who have no chance of winning. These are rarely labeled speed horses -- not because they are inherently closers, but because they are simply slow horses, period.
THe fact that these horses rarely win, is at least partly responsible for this "universal speed bias" -- because a higher percentage of speed horses *will* win.
It is not because tracks are universally biased towards speed, in other words -- it is because a given field is "biased" towards the better horses -- and the better horses are more likely to be near the front than the back, which is where the slow horses always are.
Posted by Tom Atwater Apr 11, 2008 10:50:04 PM
fatbelly says:
Steve,
The Pick 5 at Lone Star is a $1 minimum if the ticket is a part-wheel. I noticed the payout on Thursday's chart and made sure at work today. I'm a teller at an OTB in the Midwest.
Posted by fatbelly Apr 11, 2008 9:41:24 PM
james says:
Steve
I'm tire of reading all the usual gripes and "know-it-all" editorials that drown your blog. I dare you to post a simple, intelligent synopsis on one of the horses in the Arkansas Derby tomorrow:
[#4] Gayego - Gayego is improving at just the right time (albeit on Cushion Track). His spirited second to Georgie Boy in the G2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita represents Gayego's debut around two turns (as it was Georgie Boy's) and the results were promising. Before trying two turns Gayego succeeded in the San Pedro (also at Santa Anita) at 6 1/2 panels on Cushion Track. In the San Pedro, Gayego recorded a new track record for 6 1/2 furlongs at 1:13.07. One has to absorb that bit of information with a grain of salt, because in January the Santa Anita Cushion Track was producing certifiably insane winning times. Gayego impressed his trainer Paulo Lobo so much with his San Felipe effort that Lobo is thinking Kentucky Derby for the talented colt. The Santa Anita Derby was to be the litmus test, but Lobo opted to give his colt another week of preparation and ship to Arkansas for the G2 Arkansas Derby. This will be the second graded stakes appearance for Gayego.
Gayego's sire Gilded Time earned $975,980 in only six career starts from 1992-1993, the most prestigious being a win in the 1992 Breeders Cup Juvenile. Gilded Time's female line includes the dramatic combination of Bold Ruler and Princequillo. Bold Ruler is in my eyes the finest progenitor of classic dirt runners (and stallions) in the world, while the same can be said for Princequillo with regard to turf racing. Gayego's broodmare sire Lost Code was a prolific graded stakes winner (ten graded stakes wins from 1987-1988) specializing at 1 1/8 miles on conventional dirt. Lost Code is also broodmare sire to the brilliant sprinter Fabulous Strike. Gayego owns a rich pedigree to be sure, and it looks better suited to traditional dirt than synthetic surfaces. Maybe that’s why trainer Paulo Lobo opted for the Arkansas Derby.
Posted by James Apr 11, 2008 9:39:55 PM
james says:
Steve
I'm tire of reading all the usual gripes and "know-it-all" editorials that drown your blog. I dare you to post a simple, intelligent synopsis on one of the horses in the Arkansas Derby tomorrow:
[#4] Gayego - Gayego is improving at just the right time (albeit on Cushion Track). His spirited second to Georgie Boy in the G2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita represents Gayego's debut around two turns (as it was Georgie Boy's) and the results were promising. Before trying two turns Gayego succeeded in the San Pedro (also at Santa Anita) at 6 1/2 panels on Cushion Track. In the San Pedro, Gayego recorded a new track record for 6 1/2 furlongs at 1:13.07. One has to absorb that bit of information with a grain of salt, because in January the Santa Anita Cushion Track was producing certifiably insane winning times. Gayego impressed his trainer Paulo Lobo so much with his San Felipe effort that Lobo is thinking Kentucky Derby for the talented colt. The Santa Anita Derby was to be the litmus test, but Lobo opted to give his colt another week of preparation and ship to Arkansas for the G2 Arkansas Derby. This will be the second graded stakes appearance for Gayego.
Gayego's sire Gilded Time earned $975,980 in only six career starts from 1992-1993, the most prestigious being a win in the 1992 Breeders Cup Juvenile. Gilded Time's female line includes the dramatic combination of Bold Ruler and Princequillo. Bold Ruler is in my eyes the finest progenitor of classic dirt runners (and stallions) in the world, while the same can be said for Princequillo with regard to turf racing. Gayego's broodmare sire Lost Code was a prolific graded stakes winner (ten graded stakes wins from 1987-1988) specializing at 1 1/8 miles on conventional dirt. Lost Code is also broodmare sire to the brilliant sprinter Fabulous Strike. Gayego owns a rich pedigree to be sure, and it looks better suited to traditional dirt than synthetic surfaces. Maybe that’s why trainer Paulo Lobo opted for the Arkansas Derby.
Posted by James Apr 11, 2008 9:38:57 PM
don_reed says:
Steve - Thanks for printing my letter above, despite its length.
Dan, I'd love nothing better than to take a photo of the $15 Denis of Cork future bet and then being able to cash it.
But it does look grim for DOC's chances to get into the Derby - both on earnings (making the cut) and, of course, Bill Warren has apparently decided to call it a day.
But I sure wouldn't mind - media types, TAKE NOTE, we're giving out a FREE "rebound"-angle story here - cashing my other $15 win ticket, which will happen if David Carroll's other Derby hopeful, Blackberry Road, hits the wire first.
Oddly, the Pool One odds on Denis (46-1) and BB Road (47-1) at the close of the wagering were virtually the same.
Seems like an awfully complicated way to earn an extra fifteen bucks.
Be well,
Don
Posted by Don Reed Apr 11, 2008 9:22:51 PM
tom_ says:
Dutrow says Kip D. won't run again until Sept.! Thanks, Dutrow, way to give back to the game that has provided you with a good living.
Posted by TOM Apr 11, 2008 8:44:54 PM
flip_dawson says:
My apologies to all who were looking to bet the late Pick 4 at Woodbine today. This track announced that the Pick 4 would be available for bets on the last 4 races each day at WO.
Some days it is there, some not.
This is nothing new for this track--the powers that be seem to just throw out a few scraps and never mind if it contrasts with what was promised.
I guess they are very embarrased. After playing into big pools at SA, the last time I checked, the Pick 4 pools at Woodbine were a lofty $20,000.00 Wow!! I get dizzy just thinking of it.
While on the subject, the Pick 7 pool is sometimes around $800.00. Nothing more needs to be said.
Another joke, as usual.
I find it impossible to understand how these track operators feel that a track will run by itself.
I am detail-oriented, while some tracks are not. Nor are the majority of bettors. I guess I should keep quiet and raid the pools that are easy for me to plunder.
Still, it would be nice if all patrons had a chance to play what was promised to them.
Posted by Flip Dawson Apr 11, 2008 7:50:44 PM
tom_mcdonough says:
I wanted to comment on your piece about the unfair IRS burden assumed by horseplayers. The situation is conceivably made worse by telephone or online accounts which have provided info to the IRS of reportable scores. Presumably, the IRS could obtain ALL of your betting information for the year. If, for instance, TVG provides the IRS with a single score,I feel the IRS can obtain your entire betting record and ding you for all of the nonreported winnings-even when losses exceed them. It almost puts you off online and telephone account betting.
Posted by tom mcdonough Apr 11, 2008 6:18:10 PM
flip_dawson says:
Here I am again. Not posting to any blogs, as I'm behind in reading them.
However, had a beauty play at Woodbine in last race today, under the rules of the Secret Play.
ACE CONTENDER was a stickout, as he was paying less in the DD pool than he should have.
He got up at the wire by 1/2 length, winning at 25-1. Win pay was $52.10, starting me off on a possible nice weekend, with my $20.00 win bet.
The only thing I did not like was that the same jockey won both halves of the DD. This sometimes gives a lower play figure than if another jockey won the second last race.
Hard to understand?? Not if you have a book printed back in 1971, by an owner at NY tracks.
My plan for the Derby is to sit tight on Court Vision, play him in the exotics if Gomez is up. If no Gomez, play the Secret Play on each second half of the DD on each race.
Playing the Secret Play involves calling the track if the Will-Pays are slow. I had all Will-Pays 1 minute after the second last race.I called through to WO for the info.
So, that's all for now. I'm locked onto Court Vision for $100.00 to win, but have a buyer for half of that.
Let's face it--the goo-crap-nail-birch bark tracks have a lot of people guessing.
Court Vision has won on the crap tracks, and also at CD, so a win at 23-1 would not surprise me in the least.
Posted by Flip Dawson Apr 11, 2008 6:12:05 PM
fishnj says:
Don & Dan,
I can`t agree anymore how refreshing to hear comments from an owner apologizing for his mistakes or error in judgement while not throwing the trainer or jockey under the bus as many spoiled and ego driven ownwers have done the past. Kudos to Mr. Warren for someone willing to take the blame for something that went wrong, as we won`t see this too often in this industry.
Hennegan Bros.,
Good luck with the film as I will try to get over to NYC on Friday night for the opener, the trailer was excellent and I hope a lot of bloggers can get out to support your film.
Posted by Fish/NJ Apr 11, 2008 6:09:09 PM
dud_dew says:
I paid some attention to War Emblem in 2002 because I had him at nice odds in two previous races in Illinois.
The old brain is telling me that his pace sectors were fast/fast/fast in the Illinois Derby.
I haven't dismissed Recapture - I'm inmpressed by his Beyer, by Steve D's observation about churning out 12s, and his timely improvement. Just don't "feel" (study to follow) he's quite as good as Emblem looked to be.
With decreasing data, it seems, every spring, harder and harder to make reliable sense of the mix.
So, the only thing I'd put hard-saved money on right now is Steve C's "still going to be a big mess of uncertainty and ambiguity" right 'til post time, and I may resist betting the cavalry charge for the second year running.
Good luck, one and all:-)
Posted by dud dew Apr 11, 2008 4:24:51 PM
mudhoundmojo says:
Imo, it really doesn't matter if Recapture can flat outrun all the other front runners (namely War Pass) to the wire. The connections have stated they are going to the lead. Whether he makes it or not doesn't matter. If RTG, has enough to keep constant and steady pressure upfront ( and barring a terrible start he does) there is no way War Pass can get the distance. The Wood was the perfect scenario to see this and we are adding an 1/8th. War Pass ran a very credible race, but was just ran off his feet early and had nothing late. If he can't rate he can't win. The fractions promise too be blistering and there is little chance of WP getting alone on the lead.
This Derby is a stalker and closers paradise. BB had better be able to lay off and not get caught up in pace or he is a gonner as well.
Posted by MudhoundMojo Apr 11, 2008 1:45:07 PM
steve_davidowitz says:
On Track Bias:
While Track Bias is real, it is very often the easiest label to erroneously put on a racing surface after a front runner or two wins and/or a couple of rally wide winners take the money.
The trick to understanding Track Bias is to know what the horses going into a race are capable of and how they do or do not perform.
If a field is loased with speed and two or more speed horses survive the intense early pressure, it is quite possible that a pronounced speed bias contributed to their success.
If fit, loose front runners get caught in a few races back to back, there may be something inherent in the racing surface that is contributing to the result.
That raises the key question about Track Bias:
IS THE TRACK ITSELF HAVING A KEY IMPACT ON PERFORMANCES?
Looking at this another way: Is the race outcome being prejudiced by the way the track is playing?
Track Bias is a term I coined in the 1960's while observing that it was necessary to handicap similar races at the same distance differently at Garden State Park (inside speed had a big edge) vs. Aqueduct (Stalkers on the outside had a big edge).
As a commentator to this blog noted: Most American tracks tend to favor early speed in the way they are built and configured. Speed is the Universal Track Bias at American tracks and author Bill Quirin first said that, not me, but he was right.
Synthetic tracks are a whole new ballgame as most know. In more than sa few cases, they tend to play towards horses with stamina credentilas at the specific distance.
Jockeys tend to over react to that and increase the practical running style bias (More on this in Betting Thoroughbreds when my 2009 revision will be released by DRF Press.)
As for Hawthorne and Recapturetheglory: The track was tilted somewhat towards front running types, but if you look at Recapturetheglory's race and how he really ran, the most important points may have been missed:
* The horse ran each furlong in about 12 seconds, and was just as strong at the end as he was at any stage of the race.
* Being able to grind out consecutive 24 and change quarter mile splits from start to finish is the sign of a natural distance horse--a natural 10 furlong horse--a natural Grade-1 distance horse.
The way he ran also suggests that he may not be a 'need-the- lead' type. Certainly he will not be able to control the pace in the Kentucky Derby as War Emblem did. . Moreover, with Big Burn and/or War Pass and/or Bob Black Jack and others expected to be in the field, we have to anticpate a very hot pace for the first seven furlongs, if not the mile.
In my judgment, Recapturetheglory will go into the Derby as one of the horses on ther improve and with the ability to run evenly for the extended distance, which might put him in the mix. It also may be true that he will not reach his true peak until later this summer.
Another note about Track Bias. . .A classic feature of a truly biased, speed favoring track is not that every horse in the field runs on or near the pace. Very often horses will close ground for minor finishing positions against the grain of a speed bias to signal their fitness and the lack of same from the horses who had the track in their favor but could not take advantage.
Again, most horseplayers overate the existance of a track boas; most are too quick to label a track one way or another; but, Track Bias' is a findamental reality of horse racing on oval shaped racetracks.
The geometry of the track can create a bias tendency as can the placement of starting gate relative to different distances.
Sometimes they are caused or exacerbated by shifting weather and/or major changes in wind, temperature or humifity.
Sometimes the race is heavily influenced not by a track bias per se, but by PACE BIASES caused by aberrant pace sitations for a single race.
But make no mistake, when a good horseplayer really finds a true Track Bias, he or she can make sharp calls on the way horses really did perform and equally sharp predictions how races will be run and which horse or horses will stand to benefit.
At the bottom line, Track Bias is not a tool for casual players. It is a powerful handicapping tool that is best used by professionals with selective discretion. . .Regards/Steve Davidowitz
Posted by Steve Davidowitz Apr 11, 2008 1:43:40 PM
hennegan_bros says:
Steve,
Thanks for the mention, my man. It was your article in the Travers Day 2007 DRF that got the industry to stand up and take notice. Continued thanks . . .
Make sure everybody goes out to see it the first weekend.
www.thefirstsaturdayinmay.com
If we don't do big numbers Friday April 18th until Sunday April 20th, we will not be asked back to run Derby week! (4-25 to 5-1) So get out Friday and Saturday race fans . . .
And to clarify, we are donating 25% of the box office from the first week of our Truly Indie release - not overall. We're generous - but not crazy!
Thanks again Steve.
Best,
Hennegan Brothers
Posted by Hennegan Bros Apr 11, 2008 1:11:09 PM
dick_w says:
James
Although I agree with you that some very good horses have come out of the Arkansas Derby the past few years, this years bunch does not look like a Grade 1 group to me. Of the 5 horses in the race to make Watchmakers Derby watch top 25, Gayego has the shortest price at 40 to 1. I don't see any viable Derby candidates in the field. I don't even recognize most of the names.
Posted by Dick W Apr 11, 2008 11:24:32 AM
dan says:
Don,
Mr. Warren is pure class. Our sport needs many more owners like the Warrens.
As for framing your future pool ticket on Denis of Cork, I suggest you consider the possibility that you may have to cash it.
Cheers
Posted by Dan Apr 11, 2008 9:54:25 AM
todd says:
steve:
this comment has nothing to do with the wood memorial or SA derby or any other derby prep, per se. what i want to point out is that Street Sense did not run back as a 3 yr od, in his 2 preps, to anywhere near his monster fig in the BC juvenile. yet he won the derby. the thing about pyro, as i have just read your article in the form(excellent as usual), is that he is raced in larger fields, from compromised positions, up close and far behind, and has figured out a way to overcome obstacles and win. triple digit beyer or not, he has the connections and "look" of a horse who will peal on derby day. lastly, while the SA races do not get figures that i necessarily agree with, i think CJ is a horse who has everything going in the right direction. excuses abound for alot of the derby wannabes, but all he has done is won, is conditioned by a trainer who does not come to this party very often, so like tagg and matz, needs to be feared when he does show up. if CJ trains well at CD, he will race very well i believe.
thanks
Posted by todd Apr 11, 2008 9:45:37 AM
elangelo says:
The fact of the matter is that having early speed is better than late speed on almost every dirt track. I believe it was Steve Davidowitz's book that said that "early speed is the universal bias on American tracks" (or something to that extent). Followers of the old Keeneland strip know what a speed bias is. What we had in Illinois on Saturday wasn't it.
Posted by ElAngelo Apr 11, 2008 9:23:15 AM
bearcatbob says:
Annie,
Thank you. Must have missed that last night. Looking forward to it.
Posted by Bearcatbob Apr 11, 2008 9:08:41 AM
don_reed says:
By now, all should have heard about Mr. Bill Warren's letter of apology to the backers of Denis of Cork, who went nowhere in the Illinois Derby.
Paul Moran has made a copy of the letter available on his site.
Racing radio commentator Steve Byk responded by scolding Paul for having printed the letter, because it is Byk's understanding that the letter was, originally, solely intended to be a private communication to various personal friends.
The response to Mr. Byk, & to Mr. Warren, below, cannot, for technical reasons, be physically added to the comments listed below Mr. Moran's column.
Steve, this is a request that you approve of my using your column's comment area, so that the below can be made public. If you feel that this is out of bounds, I'll understand. Thanks - DPR.
Steve, the point is not that Mr. Warren intended the letter to be a private matter, or that Paul Moran should or should not have released it to the public.
Here is a good-faith explanation of what went wrong, his candid & unsparing appraisal of the mistakes that he feels he had made, & a sincere expression of regret for the sad consequences that ensued.
And the fact that the letter has been described as having been intended to be private in nature absolutely vouches for its authenticity & Mr. Warren's genuine feelings of remorse.
What more in the world could we possibly want?
This is one of the rare opportunities when we're not being inundated by the insulting explanations put forth by public relations weasels - professional liars, whether it being in racing, the media, on Wall Street, or politics - whose sordid clients don't even have the guts to face the public themselves.
And rather than to express amazement & gratitude that this can occur - that for once, we're not being subjected to falsehoods & flattery -you've chosen to express an opinion that indicates that you know the probity of everything & the value of nothing.
Mr. Warren, if you should happen to read this, please understand that there are undoubtedly thousands of racing fans, myself included, who are proud of you for having expressed such sentiments.
I bet $15 on Denis of Cork in the first Derby future pool. After the Derby's over, I'm having the ticket framed with your letter & it will serve to remind me that there are Thoroughbred owners with class.
Posted by Don Reed Apr 11, 2008 7:00:03 AM
james says:
Steve I guess now is as good a time as any to bring this issue back up again.
What does Oaklawn have to do for the Arkansas Derby to be a G1? During the last 4 years this prep has gone on to produce 3 3yo champs, a h-o-y, a derby winner, 2 preakness winners, 2 belmont winners and so on...
Now I'm no "Einstein" but if the Arkansas isn't a race of quality... then what is?
Posted by james Apr 11, 2008 5:24:18 AM
samg says:
I`ve already as much as said this but the result of the Ill. Derby was more a case of pace than Bias.When there are only 2 early speed types in a race it`s not unusual for them to run around the track in order.Unfortunately I wasn`t thing that way I just thought Recapturetheglory had a good chance to wire the field and Baird gave him a great ride.
Posted by SamG Apr 11, 2008 1:52:55 AM
annie says:
Bearcatbob,
Just click on the word "raved about" in Steve's article above and it will take you to his review, which I just read.
And he does say that the Barbaro saga was used as an afternote, not the focus of the movie. I can't wait to see it!
Posted by Annie Apr 11, 2008 12:19:38 AM
c says:
jcp,
If I'm not mistaken, War Emblem ran the Illinois Derby at Sportsman's Park, not Hawthorne.
Steve,
I reached the same conclusion from the charts as Demick did. It just proves what a slippery slope track bias is. Nobody can put a number on it... how does one separate a horse's effort from the contribution of the track? As with Saturday's card, just when it appears outside stalkers are dominating, you get 4 consecutive wire jobs, only to have wide stalkers/closers win races 8 and 10.
Personally, I've always felt track bias was a little more hype than reality. Statistical coincidences do occasionally happen... there was a day at Belmont last year where 5 or 6 #4 horses won. Was the 4-path particularly good that day? Probably not. I'll even go as far to say that there was no significant inside bias at Churchill during BC2006. Before calling me crazy, rewatch the races carefully. You may or may not maintain your original opinion.
Posted by C Apr 11, 2008 12:11:04 AM
nick_briglia says:
jcp,
No hard feelings but you couldn't be talking about two more different situations. War Emblem got an easy lead in the Kentucky Derby and set modest fractions. Recapture the Glory will have to be from another planet to deal with the speed that will be in this years Derby.
Posted by Nick Briglia Apr 10, 2008 11:34:08 PM
nick_briglia says:
My experience with the Derby has always been to go with your initial impression of how well or poorly horses ran. If you wait the two or three weeks until the Derby then it is too easy to get caught up in the hype and get talked off your original opinion.
For me it's simple. I watched the Wood and didn't like what I saw from any horses. Why should my opinion change in two weeks?
Posted by Nick Briglia Apr 10, 2008 11:30:13 PM
jcp says:
War Emblem, Illinois Derby,1:49.42....Recapture, Illinois Derby, 1:49.01..Good enough for me....
Posted by jcp Apr 10, 2008 10:01:16 PM
bearcatbob says:
Steve,
Living in Cincnnati, im thinking about going to the movie about the 2006 Derby at Florence Cinemas before I head down to Keeneland the next day for Lexington Stakes. I missed your review of it. My dad is a horse racing fan as well but not as hard core as I am about it. Could you please summarize your review or re-post it so I can get an idea of what to expect before I ask him to go with me. We all know how it ends, but does it dwell too much on the tragedy? Thanks for any information.
Posted by Bearcatbob Apr 10, 2008 9:19:56 PM
About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
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