November 2009
| Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
| 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
| 29 | 30 |
Crist Blog | May 12, 2008
Odds-on in the Preakness
Here's a straw to grasp at if you're trying to beat Big Brown in the Preakness Saturday: He'll probably be the 15th odds-on Preakness favorite in the last 50 years, and 8 of the previous 14 lost -- including 5 of the last 6.
Here's how those 14, who ranged in price from 1-to-10 on Spectacular Bid in 1979 to 9-10 on Honest Pleasure in 1976, fared:
Note that Derby winners were 6-for-10 as odds-on Preakness favorites over the last 50 years. All four times that a horse other than the Derby winner was odds-on, he lost: Derby runners-up Easy Goer, Honest Pleasure and Hill Rise, and Derby-skipper Linkage.
A $2 win bet on all 14 odds-on Preakness favorites since 1957 would have cost $28 and returned $17.20, a 38.6 % loss on investment.
Posted by Steven Crist May 12, 2008 11:30:19 PM | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
trackbaby says:
Big Brown beat what was perhaps the worst derby field in over a decade. The pace figures for the race confirm it. It was slow in the beginning, slow in the middle and slow late. Over a track which was putting up super fast times all day Big Brown ran 1 1/4 in almost 2:02, Beyer can say whatever BS he wants but there is no way that horse earned anything near a 109 given the final time of the race and given the times that track was producing in other races on the card. This horse will also win the Preakness because again he is facing virtually nothing, one of the worst Prekaness fields in a long long time. Big Brown will meet his fate at the Belmont and Casino Drive, a horse who is far more talented than what we saw at Churchill or tomorrow at Pimlico.
And as far as this horse being better than Smarty Jones and the likes, LOL. The horse was about 3 wide on the first turn, 3 wide stalking a slow pace into the 2nd turn and came home in average time after running slow early and middle fractions yet pulled away from the field because the field was trash. When one of your biggest competitors is a Gilded Time colt who has barely Beyered over 100, well that pretty much says it all for how lame this 3 year old class is.
Casino Drive will return some sanity to the knuckleheads who are trying to make big Brown Smear out to be some monster by beating up on the worst 3 year old class we have seen in a very long time.
Posted by TrackBaby May 17, 2008 1:17:22 AM
trackbaby says:
Worst Preakness field in years. Casino Drive will win the Belmont easily.
Posted by TrackBaby May 17, 2008 1:04:32 AM
rcknhrse says:
I am with you on KY BEAR.
Bet him in his last start.
made a winning move only to come up short.
I expect that race put something into him.
If #1 stays on the rail and finds an opening he could also be in the ex and tri
Posted by rcknhrse May 16, 2008 7:32:43 PM
epsomoaks86 says:
I've believe Kentucky Bear will run a big race on Saturday. I'm looking forward to it.
Posted by EpsomOaks86 May 14, 2008 9:47:58 AM
timisin says:
oh by the way why has nothing been said about ABC calling the wrong horse #rd in the derby? i had the tri with Dennis of Cork 3rd but ABC said tale of Ekati was third. i spent the whole night thinking my ticket was a loser. my morning paper was well worth the delivery price since i certainly would have thrown out my winning ticket without it.
Posted by timisin May 14, 2008 9:24:50 AM
timisin says:
Did you see Big Brown in the Ky derby winners circle? He was dead lame front right. i am a former trainer and although this might be something minor i ask why then is Dutrow training his big horse so lightly. I will wheel "Behindatthebar" with all, all for the trifecta and pray Big Brown finishes fourth.
Posted by timisin May 14, 2008 8:49:59 AM
tim_thompson says:
did you watch Big Brown in the winners circle? I am a former trainer and he was dead lame. he had a weight bearing lameness on his front right leg. now that doesnt mean it wasnt something minor but isnt it funny how lightly dutrow has been training him? i like "behindatthebar" as my key horse. i will use him 1st, 2nd, 3rd, with all.
hopefully Big Brown will be fourth.
Posted by tim thompson May 14, 2008 8:37:23 AM
arazi says:
unitas,
Nothing to dislike about Dutrow but given the hisory of his medication violations, don't u think it will be a significant blow to the integrity of the sport if the trainer of a triple crown winner is suspended for drug violation in the future?
BB is a great race horse and IMO, it doesn't really matter who trains him (Mott, Pletcher, Dyrsdale, Mandella...). He is the kind of a horse who makes the trainer look good.
Posted by Arazi May 14, 2008 4:32:53 AM
kevroc says:
Thanks to andy and steve for your replies. I was just wondering about the trainer being NY based and thus going for it at "home" so to speak.
I grew up as a track rat at BEL and AQU (my grandfather taught me how to read the form when I was 15 and his brother ran the valet at NYRA for years.. he was the guy who had all the car keys laid out in his car trunk).
Sadly, my grandfather isnt doing too well these days health-wise, so I cannot ask him about the old days.
Thanks again and good luck at the windows!
Kev
Posted by kevroc May 14, 2008 12:58:25 AM
george_quinn says:
The feature stakes race at Calder on Saturday is the 36k Champali Stakes. Was Champali that good to have a stakes named for him? I think he won the Lanes End at Turfway but the Champali Stakes? REALLY?
George in Lexington Ky.
Posted by george quinn May 13, 2008 11:38:04 PM
vince says:
Big Brown is the best 3 yr old to look thru a bridle since Spectacular Bid. Unlike PERFECT trip winners FuPeg , Funny Cide ,Barbaro , Smarty Jones , Big Brown drew an awful post , ran wide the whole way was 5 better than filly and 9 better than the rest of the field. This horse is a SUPERSTAR
Posted by vince May 13, 2008 11:24:39 PM
drewclearwhenroused says:
Well here goes... I have been following the blog since the Spa and am an avid fan who lives in Raleigh, NC. I am originally from NY and often return to visit family and the Spa and or Belmont. I am wondering if Steve or anyone else has any insight as to why with three weeks to the Belmont that the NYRA lottery for seats has yet to be drawn. Last year the lottery was complete prior to the Derby and I had my tickets in Raleigh the weekend before the Derby. We are three weeks out and I do not know if I have tickets or what seats I will have. I got my application in as soon as I received it just after they reached the franchise agreement in February. I can go online to StubHub.com and purchase seats well over face value if I want but cannot find out when NYRA will conduct this mysterious lottery. It just dosen't seem as though this "lottery" system makes sense. Could they not go with a more 1st come 1st serve policy ; so that folks that have been planning to come since last year can be assured of a decent ticket prior to driving 600 miles to visit "Big Sandy". For this weekend I like Highest Class quite a bit I thought she would run in the Oaks and rates a big shot on an off track as well @ 5-2 or better. I also like Sangrita if she goes in the Shuvee. Thanks for the space.
Posted by drewclearwhenroused May 13, 2008 9:38:21 PM
yuwipi says:
Steven,
An off topic plea for mercy. Has anyone else fought a losing battle with the verification typepad? I'm going 0 for 3 most times before lucking out. My eyes aren't what they used to be, but geez!
Posted by yuwipi May 13, 2008 8:35:49 PM
silver_charm says:
Steve,
The odds-on stats are good but they appear to imply trying to beat Big Brown in the win pool. However if Big Brown hits the board he still kills the Exacta, Tri and Super.
The place to go is the Pick-Four or even Pick-Six.
Have you ever played the Pick-Six? Try it you will like it.
Posted by Silver Charm May 13, 2008 8:34:00 PM
yuwipi says:
I'm stubborn enough to have stuck with Colonel John if Harty had opted to give him another try. Not knocking Big Brown's dominating Derby win at all, but after watching Colonel John trailing 17 horses after an 1/8th of a mile the party was over. Hope he gets another shot some day.
But as many have posted above, the opposition is looking pretty grim on Saturday. Reaching is one thing, throwing darts another. Have to watch this one. However, I will definitely NOT be rooting for him to win.
Trotter: Would like to post your "You like the odds on lightning?" on the lotto machine at my local paper store, where I often have to wait forever to plunk down my $5.50 for the Form as the queue sputters along.
C: Hadn't heard PETA was planning any funny business at Pimlico. That infield crowd is one big drunken bacchanalia. Not a good mix.
Posted by yuwipi May 13, 2008 8:31:38 PM
c says:
Thanks Andy,
It's about time.
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=94473&subs=0&arc=0
Posted by C May 13, 2008 6:44:00 PM
el_angelo says:
Clinton:
I won't argue with your assessment of FuPeg at all, to say he was treated with kid gloves would be putting it nicely. Frankly, there was something mysterious about his entire treatment in general, and how his career wound up, etc.
I do disagree about Red Bullet though; Stronach/Orseno held him out of the Derby off his 2nd in the Wood, as I recall, because he hadn't run as a 2yo and they thought he was too inexperienced for such a big field. But had he gone, I think he would have been the 4th choice in the race after FuPeg, The Deputy and that Pletcher monster entry of Impeachment/Graeme Hall/More Than Ready/etc.
Posted by El Angelo May 13, 2008 6:31:46 PM
larry_thiel says:
It seems to have gotten buried that on the same day Big Brown won the Florida Derby, Dutrow won two of the big stakes in Dubai. I don't think the man's just lucked into this horse. I think he's a great trainer.
Posted by Larry Thiel May 13, 2008 6:19:32 PM
larry_thiel says:
I had Yankee Bravo in the first Derby pool, so I've watched him pretty closely this year.
He's barely the same species as Big Brown.
Posted by Larry Thiel May 13, 2008 6:15:19 PM
unitas says:
Hey Steve, I see that DRF has not scheduled any chats like you had for the Derby for this years Preakness. Should Big Brown win the Preakness, will DRF schedule any chats leading up to the Belmont & possibly the crowning of a Triple Crown winner? Thanks.
Posted by Unitas May 13, 2008 6:10:31 PM
steven_crist says:
andyscoggin,
Just for the record, Affirmed did not run in New York as a 3-year-old before the Belmont. Affirmed wintered in California, winning a SA allowance race, the San Felipe, Santa Anita Derby and Hollywood Derby.
clinton,
Funny Cide was not odds-on and was only narrowly favored at 1.90-to-1 in the 2003 Preakness, paying $5.80 to win. Peace Rules was 2.40-to-1 and the Bob Lewis entry of Scrimshaw(Lukas) and Senor Swinger(Baffert) was 4.90-to-1.
Posted by steven_crist May 13, 2008 6:10:09 PM
clinton says:
El Angelo,
not even Red Bullet knew there was a Red Bullet in that race. As well as he performed in the Derby, I think Desormeaux was just out ridden in that Preakness and cost himself a shot at a triple crown, though Mr Drysdale seemed destined to not have him try the 3rd leg anyway. FP to me still remains one of the most pampered & over hyped pieces of flesh this game has known in recent years.
By the way, what were Funny Cide's odds for the Preakness? I thought he was similar to some of those you've listed Steve.
Posted by Clinton May 13, 2008 4:03:58 PM
andyscoggin says:
Everyone seems to be giving BB the win already. Do not forget that the Preakness track will be rock hard, as always, and with his feet?? The odds of a foot problem are probably worth trying to beat his 1-5 betting odds!
kevroc,
All 3 of the modern Triple Crowns were NY based. Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed. Later Laz Barrera moved to California! All 3 followed the NY 2Y0 and 3Y0 prep races!
Posted by AndyScoggin May 13, 2008 3:33:19 PM
john_strongosky says:
arcstat,
You are right on again, i was in total agreement when you posted about Dutrow and Asmussen.You Hit this one dead on also. Stronach destroyed Gulfstream turning it into a Racino. I had been going to the FLA Derby for 10 years, the last being Barbaro's win and will never go back to that casino, AHHHGH, I mean Racetrack. I live in Syracuse and we were home to New Process Gear, main Division of Chrysler.I know many people that work there and told them things will be a changing after Magna purchased them.To make a long story short after Magna bought them out shortly after he threatened to pull out of Syracuse unless concessions were made by the union. There was talk of Strike so on so forth. In the end they sacrificed $9 an hour in pay. Now I don't feel real bad as they were making $30 an hour. All the good Stronach has done for racing he has always followed it up with some $$ scheme for his corp. Oh, great Article Steve, I will be trying to beat Little Beige with BehindtheBar.
Posted by John Strongosky May 13, 2008 3:09:22 PM
mike_d says:
I had Gayego second to Big Brown in the Derby, and he was whipsawed an eighth-mile into the race, and then never lifted a hoof.
I still think he's second-best to Big Brown (who cannot lose on Saturday unless something bizzaro happens)-- and to anyone interested, we might get a nice 7 or 8 to 1 on a cold exacta.
Posted by Mike D May 13, 2008 2:54:39 PM
unitas says:
Hey Arazi, the horse wins the Triple Crown, not the trainer. I know how important the trainer is to a horses success, however, without the talent, no matter how good a trainer is, no horse can win the Triple Crown. Why such dislike for Dutrow? I am aware of his antics, his sometimes less than conventional ways dealing with the public or touting his own horses, but, he makes it a little interesting, doesn't he? Sure, he is not a blue-blood from a huge Kentucky farm, but like it or not, he is a very good horseman who gets results.
Posted by Unitas May 13, 2008 2:45:08 PM
speaksoftly says:
Thanks for that, Steven. Very helpful.
Posted by speaksoftly May 13, 2008 12:03:57 PM
alexander_morris says:
All this talk of Big Brown vs. Casino Drive needs to wait another 9.5 furlongs. We are setting ourselves up on Saturday for a major letdown if someone pulls the upset.
Posted by Alexander Morris May 13, 2008 11:43:06 AM
steven_crist says:
tbone,
Excellent question and I'll give you everyone's least-favorite answer: It depends. On a)Whether you're actively opposed to that favorite vs. just being confused by the race and b)whether the rest of your play is laden with real bombers or just 1st-through-3rd betting choices who would combine with that favorite for an uninteresting payout. One way to compromise is to make some CAAA tickets where you don't necessarily use all your A's but only the pricier ones.
Posted by steven_crist May 13, 2008 11:00:34 AM
trotter says:
The only way this horse loses is if he gets hit by lightning coming out of the starting gate. You like the odds on lightning?
Posted by trotter May 13, 2008 10:40:59 AM
tbone says:
A question to Mr. Crist and anyone with an opinion:
When making out multiple tickets for a pick 4 do you toss the favorite out completely if you don't feel they deserve to be an A horse. I have sometimes put them on a CAAA ticket as insurance, but I'm beginning to feel this money could be put to better use elsewhere.
Thanks for the help.
Posted by tbone May 13, 2008 10:35:26 AM
arcstats says:
Frank Stronach has been called a lot of names since the birth and subsequent failings of Magna, but I've never heard anyone or seen anything written questioning his sportmanship as an owner of racehorses. However his decision to not run Harlem Rocker in the Preakness, despite Todd Pletcher's claim that the horse is ready to roll, is rather telling.
First, he owns Pimlico. Yet his decision not to enter Harlem Rocker probably reduces the race to a public workout for Big Brown. Similar to the derby, the once-a-year Marylander track attendees will be gouged outrageous prices to see what appears to be a non-compelling, garbage race. Thanks Frank. If you don't think the Preakness holds any special value in the big picture of racing, why are you ripping off everyone who wants to see it in person?
But more importantly, the foundation of the highest level of this game was built by sportsmen with the names of Mellon, Vanderbilt, Phipps et al. Ducking the Preakness is just another bad decision made by Stronach that attacks the backbone of racing. Kind of like just about every decsion made by Magna over the past two decades.
Posted by Arcstats May 13, 2008 10:14:10 AM
c says:
George,
Here's another reason to avoid the Preakness and the rest of the Pimlico card: PETA. They've been threatening to storm the track during the race. If they do, the race will be declared a no-contest. It probably won't happen, but I don't want to be distracted by that possibility.
Betting-wise, I'm ignoring Pimlico, including the Preakness. The Preakness undercard is usually ho-hum anyway. This year, I'm focusing on Belmont's card. It seems like every year, I always regret playing Pimlico when I see the monster prices at Belmont. I think there might be a few reasons: (a) some of the popular riders are in Maryland, (b) the public focuses on Pimlico, plays Belmont as an afterthought, and handicaps the card too hastily, (c) some of the mid-level minor stakes horses are sent to Pimlico, opening the door for the 'hard-luck' types.
I know some of this sounds like a stretch, but it seems to happen every year. Last year, I believe Belmont's early pick four paid in the 6 digits and the tris and supers were bombs away.
Posted by C May 13, 2008 8:57:21 AM
el_angelo says:
In many ways, Big Brown is reminiscent of Fusaichi Pegasus. The problem is there's no Red Bullet in this race.
Posted by El Angelo May 13, 2008 7:23:51 AM
arazi says:
This is a perfect example where the numbers, although correct, deosn't provide the exact picture.
Going back to the 2000 (wasn't introduced to racing until 1992).
Year 2006: Barbaro broke down.
Year 2000: Pegasus' loss could be contributed to the muddy track and a well tauted Red Bullet who skipped the derby for the reason to be primed for the Preakness.
A lot of contributing factors which numbers may not reflect.
What I've observed in the past 13 years is that the Kentucky Derby winner is more likely to win the Preakness regardless of the odds - Pure and Simple.
If I were to bet $2 hypothetical win bet on every KD derby winner who ran in the Preakness in the last 12 years, what would've been my ROI?
In my handicapping books, I've given the Preakness to BB and will wait until Belmont to bet against him. I'll be very unhappy if he loses in the Preakness because I'd take the pleasure of beating him in the Belmont.
After all, how many of you would like to see Rick Dutrow as a Triple Crown winner?
Not me...
Posted by Arazi May 13, 2008 4:12:52 AM
kevroc says:
If Big Brown takes it down in Baltimore. Dutrow will have a chance to pull off the triple crown at his home based track. (correct me if I'm wrong)
My question is how many NY-based trainers have pulled off the feat?
I'm only 33, so I don't go back as far as alot of the players here.
Posted by kevroc May 13, 2008 1:49:12 AM
crich says:
I am disappointed that Harlem Rocker scratched since I thought he was a throw out. Figured he would try to run with Big Brown and his running style and pedigree suggest his best distance might be a mile.
After watching tapes of the contenders??? for the Preakness, I can see why the connections of Hey Byrn are bypassing the Ohio Derby. 2/3 in the Preakness is more prestigious and money than the being 1/2 in the OD. These pretenders would not get a check in a typical OD field.
One of these horses winning the Preakness would be a shocker comparable to Volponi or Arcangues winning the BC Classic.
In fact, I am surprised that quality horsemen such as Bill Mott (Riley Ticker) and Graham Motion (Icabad Crane) would actually enter their inferior animals.
Posted by C.Rich May 13, 2008 1:45:54 AM
george_quinn says:
Steve,
While your stats of beaten chalk of Preakness pasts tell part of the story, the real information that is relevant is that as recent as last year with Curlin, some pretty good horses beat the favorites. This years Preakness other than Big Brown does not even have a pulse! Racecar Rhapsody? Spare me. This field is weaker than the Derby group in my eyes. I think only Yankee Bravo and maybe Stevil have a chance at a big year and that I think, will come on the lawn. Especially now with the defection of Harlem Rocker. Good luck wasting money trying to beat this monster. I will be watching everyone trying. I will sit the race out and get involved on what surely will be a nice undercard.
George in Lexington Ky.
Posted by george quinn May 12, 2008 11:42:02 PM
Comments to this entry are closed.
About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He recently released an instructional DVD titled "Exotic Tickets," and is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
