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Crist Blog | May 21, 2008
Triple Crown Figs
Here are the Beyer Speed Figures for all the Triple Crown races since 1992, the year they were first published in DRF (after first appearing in print in The Racing Times in 1991):
Source: American Racing Manual
Big Brown is the seventh horse in this stretch to be bidding for a Triple Crown. The previous six all ran higher combined BSF's, by 6 to 24 points, in the first two legs:
Silver Charm 115/118 = 233
Smarty Jones 107/118 = 225
Funny Cide 109/114 = 223
War Emblem 114/109 = 223
Real Quiet 107/111 =218
Charismatic 108/107 = 215
Big Brown 109/100 = 209
Now of course, BSF's don't incorporate the fact that Big Brown was restrained down the backstretch and geared down during the final furlong of the Preakness, that he raced wide on both turns of the Derby, that he has made only five career starts, that he has dominated unusually weak competition without being fully extended, and looked magnificent doing it.
Still, interesting.
Posted by Steven Crist May 21, 2008 11:50:47 PM | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
isabel says:
It would be great to have a Triple Crown winner that wasn't pumped the 15th of every month with Winstrol.
I miss the excitement of competition: Secretariat/Sham; Seattle Slew/Run Shady Run and Affirmed/Alydar. Five races does not make a champion.
Let's not forget the great Cigar!
Posted by Isabel Jun 5, 2008 12:35:50 PM
richiebee says:
In re Secretariat:
Near the end of his 3YO season, Sec won the Man of War at 1-1/2 miles on TURF
at Belmont, setting a course record (2:24.4) which stood, I believe for 28 years.
He ended his career by defeating older horses in a Grade 1 turf race at Woodbine, the Canadian International Stakes. In that race Secretariat defeated top turfers Kennedy Road and Big Spruce.
Secretariat was named champion turf male in 1973.
Considering the Triple Crown in which he set 2 stake records which still stand, the 2 stake wins on the turf and the recognition as champion turf male (in addition to champion 3YO and Horse of the Year), this was an exceptional 3YO campaign, maybe the best ever, and the turf achievements are sometimes overlooked.
Posted by richiebee May 25, 2008 2:20:51 AM
justin says:
For Laura and C:
Fair enough, C you make very good points. I myself have no clue as what to look for in the paddack, maybe I should watch Jerry Bailey's CD, and for Ms. Laura I understand perfectly. I apologize to you both and to anyone else I offended.
Posted by Justin May 24, 2008 11:31:43 PM
laura says:
I apologize for my strongly worded post and after re-reading it, I realize it didn't convey what I meant.
I understand this is mainly a handicapping blog. My comment was that I feel too much emphasis is given to paper and not enough to looking at the horse. If "on paper" you absolutely love your pick, but don't take the time to look at the horse in the paddock or on the track it see how it behaves, (washed-out, unhappy, etc.) all the numbers in the world won't mean a thing.
Again, you're right, my former post wasn't fair. It just gets frustrating reading all about numbers and it seems others have lost sight of everything except the numbers.
Posted by laura May 24, 2008 12:44:04 PM
c says:
Justin,
The number of tools you use does not coincide with the level of seriousness or the amount you bet. I play P4s regularly, often for more than $144. I'm not a whale by any means, but I'd be considered a semi-serious player. There's a lot of information out there, but there's no law that says you have to consider all of it to be successful. In fact, much of it can throw a player off if they don't take the time to dissect it for themselves to determine if they BELIEVE it... the Sheets figures are a good example for me. I just don't believe an accurate assessment of wind speed, track bias, or ground loss can be made and converted into a meaningful number. So, for me, they are not just another tool to consider... they do not factor into my handicapping at all because I don't believe the math behind them.
By the way, my own stubborness (and admitted stupidity) about keying favorites on top in the Derby is the only reason I didn't collect that super. I'll try not to make that mistake again. Below is what I wrote on Illman's blog before the race. I didn't include it to brag or anything like that (as I said, I really felt like
an idiot when the super came back $29K with the favorite on top), rather I want to remind you that speed figures are NOT required to find legit value plays. Race-watching provides me with more information than any speed figure or chart could. But everyone is different. I'm not knocking those that use speed figures.
To set the record straight and be completely honest about it, my main play in the race was Visionaire and I also used Monba, but you get the idea.
------------------------------
The filly Eight Belles should not be overlooked. She has the most racing experience in the field AND the most wins, albeit against other fillies that she absolutely towers over. She can hold her own here and would not shock me in the least.
Tale of Ekati ran a very good race in the Wood, but I have to wonder what it may have taken out of him. He's a nice colt, and I think he's ready to put 2 big back-to-back efforts together. We'll see.
Denis of Cork ran lights out in the Southwest, which, I think, was the most impressive prep all season. I didn't like his effort in the Illinois at all, but he never really settled into stride there. Being on the bubble may become a blessing in disguise, as he's had some nice works at CD in the meantime.
Posted by C May 24, 2008 10:36:24 AM
justin says:
I apologize if I offended the $2 or recreational bettor, that wasn't the message of the post.Yes those folks can go to the track and bet there favorite number, the jockeys silk, the color of the horse or whatever they like. My comment was made for the more serious horseplayer who needs some sort of info whether it be the Racing Form, Bris, Trackmaster or whatelse your comfortable with. I can't see anyone making a $144 play into the pick 4 without some sort of handicaping tools. And no I don't need any help picking Big Brown, however speed figures and a form were need to get the ones behind him. And yes for the very serious player times in hundredths can be a very helpful tool.
Posted by Justin May 24, 2008 2:36:25 AM
c says:
spectacularbid,
"secretariat beat up on bad horses with a couple of exceptions notably sham and riva ridge"
Newsflash: that's about 2 more than Big Brown has beaten thus far. To his credit, BB has beaten everyone that's lined up against him. However, Secretariat whipped Hall of Famer Cougar II, not to mention Big Spruce and 4-time Canadian champion and Queens Plate winner Kennedy Road, in addition to Sham, Riva Ridge and Forego.
"secretariat was a creation of the media and a useful race horse."
The media didn't put 31 lengths between him and the rest of the Belmont field, nor did it win any other races for him. "Useful" is one way to put it. I wouldn't mind having a horse that runs each quarter of a 10 furlong race faster than the previous quarter (continuous acceleration) and finishes in record time. By the way, he ran the first 10 furlongs of the Belmont even faster than he ran in the Derby.
"first of all his time was 2:24 4/5. i do not believe it was a world record at the time and it certainly isn't now."
It's still the 1 1/2 track record on the Belmont turf. His (at the time) WORLD record for 1 1/8 was set in the Marlboro Cup.
"the number of items available on ebay is a great metric to use to judge greatness. i just searched ebay for big brown items and there are 1355 so i guess that settles it. big brown is far superior to big red."
So I suppose Hannah Montana can outrun both of them. What kind of logic is that? If you want to believe that last sentence, I can't stop you.
=============================
Mike and Justin,
Believe it or not, there ARE handicappers out there that do not use speed figures of any kind. I am one of them. I WATCH races and could honestly care less what Beyer, Ragozin, or BrisNet thinks about them. I have never used ANY of them and guess what... I'm still here.
A few things to consider:
(a) Speed figures have not been around forever.
(b) Where's the value in using Beyers anyway? Most horses with a Beyer advantage go off at short odds... and almost all of those horses usually possess other positive qualities in their Form, so where's the independent information?
(c) Perhaps what Laura is trying to say is that handicapping has reached an absurd level of technical precision. I'm not just talking about speed figures... do we really need times in hundredths of a second? Anyway, let's put it this way... if you need numbers (Beyers, sheets, whatever) to tell you that Big Brown MIGHT be better than the other 3YOs this year, then you're in big trouble and should probably get out while you can. Talk about "easy pickings".
Posted by C May 24, 2008 12:49:15 AM
ken_truman says:
Saying that Secretariat was not a great horse is revisionist nonsense. Anyone who saw his races back in 1973, viewed not just greatness, but jaw-dropping, awe-inspiring greatness.
Posted by Ken Truman May 23, 2008 10:47:03 PM
yuwipi says:
Steve C.:
I spent almost three hours last night switching between your chart and Youtube race postings. It was a total pleasure and memory refresher, only made possible by the chart you provided.
When it came time to post I typed "nice chart." Didn't sound right on reading it today. It should have said something like "thanks for the great table, and all the others you've been busy providing us with the last 9 or 10 months."
Posted by yuwipi May 23, 2008 8:34:25 PM
justin says:
I think that Laura might be one those PETA folks, why as horseplayers would we want to watch a race without speed figures or some sort of charts, HOW ELSE ARE WE SUPPOSED TO HANDICAP????!!!!. I think I can speak for a good portion when I say yes the horses are beautiful and graceful and it's a real pleasure to watch them, that being said it's a whole lot more enjoyable when your 8-1 shot runs down the favorite for a nice score, and then you come out and attack the guy responsible for this, I'm curious as too how many of his publicatons you have read?. AND YES HE DOES WATCH RACES, PLENTY OF THEM, he just needs to lay off those Nathans footlongs. I think some sort of retraction may be in order.
Posted by Justin May 23, 2008 7:13:18 PM
pp says:
Big Brown will win he Belmont and clinch the Triple Crown if he IS NOT in the lead when they hit the head of the stretch. Kent D. had ten years to reflect upon his Real Quiet ride. Ten years is a very long time. I don't think he will move too soon again.
If he is successful in harnessing this colt's power until they straighten for the stretch, Big Brown will give it to him. He always has.
Posted by PP May 23, 2008 6:29:31 PM
mike says:
Has the world gone mad? Are there people on here actually suggesting there was nothing special about Secretariat? Are people comparing the totally unproven BB to Secretariat? Laughable.
Posted by Mike May 23, 2008 5:01:45 PM
mike says:
Laura,
This is Steve Crist's Daily Racing Form blog. It isn't a pleasure horse blog. That said, I think most people on this blog, including Steve Crist, are fond of horses. And in Mr. Crist's case he also has an affinity for greyhounds.
Have you ever read any of Steve's columns? They aren't "all about numbers," as you imply. But let me explain why Mr. Crist and others like Andy Beyer place such a heavy emphasis on numbers: it turns out that races are typically won by horses that runs around the track fastest. Ergo, Mr Crist's emphasis on numbers.
As for handicapping "a race without the holy 'speed
figures' and angles and all of the other superfluous data," nothing stops you from doing just that. Actually I'd love to see you and the rest of the world betting on races without the benefit of speed figures. It would easy pickings, something not seen since the late 1980s.
Finally, kudos to Steve for posting your diatribe. It shows that he's a first-rate numbers guy!
Posted by Mike May 23, 2008 4:56:38 PM
jeff says:
interesting but not accurate, since Beyers don't take the trips into account, and the jockey definitely eased BB in the last.
Posted by jeff May 23, 2008 4:36:03 PM
prizboy says:
A few comments....
I am a value seeker as well as anyone....but is taking 2 to 1 on Casino Drive truely value??? A horse making his third career start in a mile and a half race....Come on People.
I firmly believe Casino Drive will be hammered in the race due to the lack of depth of the field. When you have a race with 2 buzz horses and no one else to take monies, the price on the 2nd choice suffers due to all the wiseguys hammering him trying to get "value". No value on Casino Drive unless he is 8-1 or better...and does anyone really see that happening???
On a completely different note....how good was Silver Charm? 2nd highest Beyer in the Derby and tied for 1st in the Preakness....The only derby that beat his was Manarchos which sizzling pace inflated that Beyer number. For my money....one of the best in the last 20 years. No Question!
priz
Posted by prizboy May 23, 2008 4:15:41 PM
spectacularbid says:
do you really think that mr prospector was a great race horse? he was a great sire but hardly a great race horse. forego was a great horse but i think the derby was the only time he ever raced against secretariat. secretariat beat up on bad horses with a couple of exceptions notably sham and riva ridge. as far as his holding the world record at 1 1/2 miles on turf, i believe you are incorrect. first of all his time was 2:24 4/5. i do not believe it was a world record at the time and it certainly isn't now. secretariat was a creation of the media and a useful race horse. the number of items available on ebay is a great metric to use to judge greatness. i just searched ebay for big brown items and there are 1355 so i guess that settles it. big brown is far superior to big red.
Posted by spectacularbid May 23, 2008 3:39:45 PM
unitas says:
Hey Mark, nice site you have...Have a question for you: After witnessing Casino Drive drub a less than stellar field in a weak edition of the Peter Pan this year, how, off of a maiden race in Japan and the aforementioned Peter Pan Stakes can you say that Casino Drive is a better horse than Big Brown? And please do not allude to his breeding, we are all privy to his wonderful dam and his famous siblings, however, to be considered a quality animal, be it good or great, you have to prove yourself on the track itself. With just those two starts, and both were very impressive indeed, how do you come to the conclusion at this juncture that CD is a better horse at this stage than BB? I'm very curious to hear your answer. Again, you have a nice site, and obviously you put a lot of work into it. Keep it up, good work.
Posted by Unitas May 23, 2008 10:15:15 AM
cgriff says:
Thank you C, for pointing out to "SpectacularBid" that the 1970 foal crop was anything but weak. Shall I also include Mr. Prospector - record setting but fragile?
I believe Forego would have made Big Red run hard if they'd met at four. But, SpectacularBid - don't delude yourself with "who'd Secretariat beat" and "Bid was the best ever to look through a bridle." The reason Secretariat is always mentioned is that he re-set the standard of the modern racehorse. He was simply that much better than anything before or since - period. Better than Citation - better than Slew, better than the Bid. He was the perfect Thoroughbred. And if you'd take the time to read Bill Nack's book on him - you'd see that every loss was explainable. Even the great one's lose if they run enough.
Big Brown had made it look easy - but true greatness comes from being really tested or doing something out of this world against the clock. Forego was great because he carried weight like a truck and ran on matchsticks for legs - winning from 6 furlongs to 2 miles. Secretariat was greatest because he buried the clock most of his races - and raced against the best older horses around.
Let's see Big Brown set an amazing time or beat Curlin after the Triple Crown. That is the litmas test.
In the meantime, Big Sandy awaits!
Posted by Cgriff May 23, 2008 10:00:27 AM
eric_t_ma says:
Laura-
Wake up and come back to reality. The racing form is a publication dedicated to horseplayers and handicapping....and ive got news for you...analyzing a race using speed figures, various angles, and "superflous data" is what "handicapping" is. Horses are majestic animals..no doubt beatiful and breathtaking, glad you can admire that but if you dislike handicapping and "making money" off analyzing races then i think you came to the wrong website.
Hate to get this blog off course but your out of line to come here and attack the posters who enjoy horse racing in a different way than you do.
Posted by Eric_T_MA May 23, 2008 9:40:07 AM
kelso13 says:
to don reed,
I feel I must respond to your comments re: Belmont Park.The maintenance of the railroad platform is the responsibility of the Long Island R.R.,not NYRA.Your description of Belmont as a wreck is totally obsurd.I have been attending Belmont since the early 60's and I have been to all of the major racetracks here in the U.S. and in Europe including Longchamps,Chantilly,Ascot and Epsom.Watch the horses in the magnificent paddock and walking ring at Belmont, with the 100+ year old white pine tree in the middle of the walking ring.That experiance compares favorably with any of the above mentioned venues.Then walk outside and be utterly enthralled by the beautiful turf courses and expansive infield and it's like you are transported from the city to a beautiful country side.don reed I suspect that you are just another unhappy,losing player who blames his losing on the jockey, the trainer,the owner and now the racetrack.
Posted by kelso13 May 23, 2008 8:17:54 AM
andyscoggin says:
spectacularbid,
"he (SECRETARIAT) had two nice wins in his career, the belmont and the marborough (sic) cup. he also had losses to two former claimers, onion and prove out."
He set the track record in the Derby and the Preakness. He also holds the world record for a mile and a half on the turf in the identical 2:24 to the Belmont. And most TC races have super fast tracks, so he is not the only horse to have that factor. And a 139 Beyer, that would have been adjusted for that fast variant on the "tremendous machine" day.
"He lost 2 two former claimers." Well yes, but he had a fever in one race and a severe abcess in his mouth in the other.
So, keep that in mind when you think BB is invincible!!!
Hey, and don't forget, there could be a straight pin lying around.
NO horse has ever done for racing what SECRETARIAT did for racing. Go to EBAY and search for Secretariat and you will see that his impact remains! Barbaro 157, Secretariat 201.
Posted by AndyScoggin May 23, 2008 8:15:13 AM
brian_mclean says:
laura says:
This is...to all of you who are number
crunchers and who just can't accept the beauty of a horse, no matter
what it does, without picking it apart. Shame on you for calling
yourselves "horse players."
Brian says:
This statement seems to be the epitome of contradiction. I call myself a horse player because I love to pour over the facts and figures.
I can’t say much about the ‘beauty’ of a horse. I saw a Trillis Parker video once, so I know a little about dappling. I must confess I wouldn’t know a bowed tendon from a bucked shin though….
Posted by Brian McLean May 23, 2008 7:58:21 AM
kwiley says:
Had money on El Medewar at Belmont 8 yesterday. Watched the race on TVG never saw my horse. Watched replay on my computer and saw him never leave the gate. Said to myself...ok, will be declared a non starter. Imagine my surprise when they didn't. Ridiculous! I agree with Dennis Brennan.
Posted by KWiley May 23, 2008 6:30:56 AM
mark says:
Big Brown has looked good thus far, but his sudden acceleration in the Preakness was less impressive than that of Afleet Alex in the Preakness and Belmont. He faces his first real competition in the Belmont; I'll tip my hat to him if he can win this race; till now, his efforts are nothing special. Click the hyperlink on my name for my take on why the 15 horses to win two legs since 1979 failed to win the third.
Posted by Mark May 23, 2008 2:27:58 AM
c says:
"he (SECRETARIAT) also came up in a weak year with sham the only other horse of any quality."
And Forego was...?
Posted by C May 23, 2008 1:59:56 AM
laura says:
This is...to all of you who are number
crunchers and who just can't accept the beauty of a horse, no matter
what it does, without picking it apart. Shame on you for calling
yourselves "horse players."
Hey Steve: Do you ever lift your eyes off a paper chart and watch a real, live
horse race? Everything you post is figures, graphics, and how much
money you did (or didn't) make.
Do you even remember how to handicap a race without the holy "speed
figures" and angles and all of the other superfluous data needed by
modern horse players?
How about watching the beauty of a race without the numbers and what to
bet floating in your head? Gods forbid you watch a race just for the
interest and love, without trying to make money or analyze it to death...
Posted by laura May 23, 2008 1:34:01 AM
steve_davidowitz says:
FOOD FOR THOUGHT INDEED.
As Steve C stated "Big Brown is the seventh horse in this stretch to be bidding for a Triple Crown. The previous six all ran higher combined BSF's, by 6 to 24 points, in the first two legs:"
Silver Charm 115/118 = 233
Smarty Jones 107/118 = 225
Funny Cide 109/114 = 223
War Emblem 114/109 = 223
Real Quiet 107/111 =218
Charismatic 108/107 = 215
Big Brown 109/100 = 209
WHAT I FIND MOST INTERESTING about the above numbers is:
* ALL seven LOST the Belmont, perhaps incapable of running as strongly after running so fast.
Also:
* The relevence of using Beyer Figures as a measure of true quality in Triple Crown race winners is not clear, when:
* Some of the HIGHEST Beyer numbers in this 15 year sample of Triple Crown race horses that do not seem in the same league with Big Brown, specifically:
MONARCHOS (116)
WAR EMBLEM (114)
FUNNY CIDE (114)
GRINDSTONE (112)
LOUIS QUATORZE (112)
GO FOR GIN (112)
and
TABASCO CAT (112).
Here's a third item of interest to me from the list:
In NINE instances (out FIFTEEN opportunities to date), the BEYER SPEED FIGURE for the BELMONT STAKES was the LOWEST scored by the winner in any of the three races that year.
Conversely, only twice was the winning Belmont Fig the highest of the series:
LEMON DROP KID (109)
A.P. INDY 911)
At the botttom line, if BIG BROWN remains healthy, I believe he will join Lemon Drop Kid and A.P. Indy on that short list of horses who scored higher Beyer Figs in the Belmont, this despite the fact that he will be the only one of the trio to have raced in all three Triple Crown events. But as Steve C pointed out, no matter the Fig, what we saw him do in the Derby and Preakness were a combination of positive atributes--including bursts of speed not seen from many horses in Triple Crown racing.
Keep up the good stuff, SteveC.
Regards/SteveD
Posted by Steve Davidowitz May 23, 2008 1:14:09 AM
hz_hackenbush says:
In my opinion, a little bit too much has been made of Big Brown's geared-down stretch run (after a wonderful quick burst) and not nearly enough of that absolutely terrific furlong on the backstretch.
How much faster would Big Brown's Beyer have been if he had stayed on the inside without checking several lengths back, and found an open path through?
As the race was run, Desormeaux did exactly the right thing but clearly - CLEARLY - at the expense of final time.
Considering that backstretch sequence, plus the brilliant burst coming off the turn, the 100 Beyer is a pale reflection of the race Big Brown ran.
Posted by hz hackenbush May 23, 2008 12:45:55 AM
unitas says:
Is Seattle Slew considered a "Great" horse? Has he been inducted into the racing hall of fame? Did he capture thoroughbred racings Triple Crown undefeated? A lot of similarities to Big Brown, no? Well, who DID Seattle Slew defeat as a 3yo? All you Big Brown bashers, you sound as though you want to blame BB because of his suspect competition! Big Brown has done whatever he has been asked to do, and has never finished behind one of his contemporaries to date. He has won on turf & dirt, has won on the lead or rated off the early pace, and always finishes his races full of run. He has crushed old myths stating you need to have a solid 2yo campaign to have the needed foundation to go 10 furlongs the 1st Saturday in May(he had 1 race as a 2yo), and that you couldn't win the Derby off of 3 lifetime starts. I understand people trying to beat BB for value, that is part of the game, you will never be a winner financially from a wagering standpoint if you continue to back odds-on horses, but I can hardly understand the derogatory comments directed at this horses ability when, at this point in his career, he has been PERFECT! I understand that it is too early to be calling this animal "great", however, at about 6:30pm Saturday June 7th, we may have to start entertaining the thought that this wonderful 3yo may be one of the greatest 3yo's ever to look through a bridle, based on his accomplishments, like it or not! Must give credit where credit is due, and if he wins The Belmont, he will be only the 12th thoroughbred to wear the Triple Crown. I don't remember Seattle Slew's plaque at the HOF in Saratoga stating that he won the Triple Crown due to inferior competition!
Posted by Unitas May 23, 2008 12:35:56 AM
spectacularbid says:
i don't know why everyone talks about secretariat as some kind of wonder horse. he had two nice wins in his career, the belmont and the marborough cup. he also had losses to two former claimers, onion and prove out. his times were impressive because the tracks were like concrete when he was scheduled to race. he also came up in a weak year with sham the only other horse of any quality. he was surely no match for dr fager or damascus or spectacular bid or seattle slew or affirmed or alydar. put all those horses together and big red is off the board. big brown is as good as any horse since spectacular bid. go back and watch his fl derby and then watch how kindly he rated in the ky derby and then watch the overhead of the preakness at the top of the stretch. he is a superior animal and will win the belmont with ease.
Posted by spectacularbid May 23, 2008 12:25:44 AM
yuwipi says:
Nice chart. It adds a lot of perspective to all the hubbub. Big Brown kind of reminds me of Thunder Gulch. He also liked to race on the outside, giving ground to get an unhindered stalking position. Thing is, it kind of looks like that kind of Thunder Gulch Belmont performance on the Beyer scale just might be enough to get it done. There might not be anything in the field that can throw up a low 100 #. Grim indeed.
Posted by yuwipi May 23, 2008 12:15:33 AM
mike says:
To mike_guetti:
"Why does a horse who showed speed for a quarter of a mile against MSW drop into a MCL and lead every step? Because of numbers? No, because of the diminished quality of the competition."
For a couple of reasons, pace makes the race and less pressure. In your MSW dropping into a MCL example, both factors are typically at work. First, the pace is typically less demanding in a MCL race. Second, a horse is more likely to face pressure in a MSW race than in a MCL. So a horse that can run 22.4, 46.1 and 1:12 with no one in his face will very often fold like a cheap tent when another horse gets beside him early in the race. And that type of horse is less likely to have another horse in his face in a cheaper MCL race.
Beyer doesn't look at horses as machines. His detractors love to make that claim. They should read his books, or even his columns, to realize nothing further could be from the truth.
You cite "diminished quality of competition" as why the drop from MSWs to MCLs works. Why is it diminished competition? Presumably because MCLs typically run slower than MSWs. I assume you agree with that. Therefore, you're effectively making a speed figure argument, albeit indirectly. I assume you don't believe the horse actually knows who he is racing against. Having grown up with race horses, I can assure you that just aren't that smart.
Posted by Mike May 22, 2008 10:41:23 PM
mike says:
BB has beat absolutely nothing, but he's looked great doing it. As for those who say he was under wraps in the Preakness, read the following from Andy Beyer.
The following is from page 84 of Beyer's "Beyer on Speed:"
"When a horse wins a race with ease, with the jockey restraining him or even standing in the irons at the wire, novice racing fans will invariably assume that the animal could have run much faster if he had been pushed. Most horses win all-out and are described as "driving"....a few earn the supreme accolade "easily." Few aspects of horse racing are so deceptive. Once a half-ton animal has reached high gear and taken command of a race, a jockey can't significanly slow his momentum. A horse may give the impression of having energy in reserve, but this is most often an illusion. When Groovy ran six furlongs in 107 4/5 and a earned a figure of 134, he was described as being "ridden out." But he never ran faster in races where he was under pressure." That's all I have to say about how easy BB won the Preakness.
Posted by Mike May 22, 2008 10:03:16 PM
tom_atwater says:
My opinion: the Belmont is going to be a very fun race to watch.
Yes, BB will be underlaid for the task he has to perform.
It will be a gret thing for racing if he winas though. I will be rooting for him not matter how I bet (f I do).
pp: As you probably know, the reason Longden did not want to run Majestic Prince in the Belmont was that he was a sick horse. It's not really fair to hold his Belmont against him.
brian_mclean: DRF Simulcast Daily gives Casino Drive's Beyer as 101.
http://drf.com/drfSimulcastweeklyNavigation.do?trackID=BEL&country=USA&raceDate=20080523&type=WB
(requires subscription)
andyscoggin: In one of his books (I think Picking Winners) Bayer says he gave Secretariat a 148 for the Belmont.
Just thinking about that race gives me goose bumps ;-)
...actually I see that this page
http://www.drf.com/products/beyers/beyers.html
says it was a 139, I guess he revised it....
Posted by Tom Atwater May 22, 2008 9:05:39 PM
dennis_brennan says:
After today's 8th race at Belmont (the feature race of the day), something needs to be done about not giving refunds on a horse who refuses to participate in a race. We're not talking about a cheap race or a two year old race or a horse who has started 70 times. We are talking about the feature race of the day where El Medwar who has started 13 times refused to leave the gate. Ask any long time horse player and all they want is a run for their money. I don't want to hear, well that's racing. If the human participants, trainer, jockey can't get the horse to participate why should only the betting public be penalized. Where is the human accountability? Sure they will take him to the starting gate for schooling, but that's too little too late. Imagine this, Big Brown refuses to come out of the gate on Belmont day, probably won't happen, but if it did, good luck explaining your no refund policy to all of the people who bet on him!
Posted by Dennis Brennan May 22, 2008 8:35:28 PM
tk_lawless says:
Steve,
Why not just say BB is the slowest of the last 7 that tried and couldn't win the Triple Crown?
He will probably win because he is a very, very good horse, his competition is woeful, except for a colt with less foundation and experience than him. Barring an odd happening beforehand, you're probably looking at BB, CD then Denis of Cork/TofE/Icabad/MachoAgain under neath in a short tri & super.....horseracing needs BB to win the Belmont, but please muzzle Dutrow before he really makes a fool out of himself.....BB vs. Curlin would be good for racing, good for BB's connection's, but not good for Curlin's? PuhLeeeeeze.
Posted by TK Lawless May 22, 2008 8:22:19 PM
gofor_broke says:
That was a good 3rd race Thursday. The winner is by an unraced dam, Note Musicale, who is out of the great mare It's In the Air, who was top class.
Posted by gofor broke May 22, 2008 7:42:29 PM
justin says:
Listen Big Brown has beaten the best of his crop, he will be retired after the Belmont, so we'll never know how GREAT he could have been.I would like to see him win, it's gotta be good for the sport, there are other races to bet that day folks, This one should be enjoyed.
Jumping off the subject anyone hear about 66 min $1 Pick Six that is supposed to debut on June 14.It's 6 races in 66 mins from 4 tracks, Belmont, Monmouth, Delaware and Philadelphia Park with the tracks rotating 2 races each week. I think there are trying to guarantee $100,000 the first week.
Posted by Justin May 22, 2008 7:00:06 PM
mike_guetti says:
What Beyers do is remove the flesh-and-blood animal from the equation: We're not looking at horses against horses but numbers against numbers.
Why does a horse who showed speed for a quarter of a mile against MSW drop into a MCL and lead every step? Because of numbers? No, because of the diminished quality of the competition. Remember Richmond Grays, for example. He could lay down a 21 and change opening quarter against claimers at Monmouth Park, and continue on to win. Put him in against better horses, and his times got a lot slower -- and he didn't win.
And besides all of that: Why would I want to try and guess whether a 102 or a 99 was going to win a race? Might as well bet on a slide rule...
Mike Guetti
Posted by Mike Guetti May 22, 2008 6:46:18 PM
arazi says:
george_quinn,
I wish I could agree with you but having been the fan of his always-honest ride and the depth of his talent - not to mention my CA circuit affiliation for nearly 9 years - it is tough to dispose him off my most wanted list.
I know he has disappointed everybody to a point where the divorce could be justified with irreconcilable differences but I personally feel bad about him and just wish that he could deliver what he is capable of...but it's scary that he is riding in La. He should've been riding in a place where no alcohol or drug is allowed.
Posted by Arazi May 22, 2008 6:34:41 PM
florida_larry says:
Steve:
Hope you can get a chance to work on the Belmont day undercard. It will certainly be of real interest for us all to watch the Belmont run ... even if we elect to make a token wager or none at all ... but, if we can also 'blog in' with you for part of the undercard and catch some of the "Exotic" televised action it would make for an exciting and full Saturday. As u are a NY boy, we will be able to benefit from your 'inside' view to get the real skinny on conditions, bias, horses for courses etc. As with the Preakness, it would make for a special day.
Posted by florida Larry May 22, 2008 5:41:08 PM
nooch1592 says:
andyscoggin,
http://www.drf.com/products/beyers/beyers.html
Big Red got a 139 in the Belmont!
Funny that Big Brown's Preakness qualifies him as a "good allowance or low-grade stakes horse".
Posted by nooch1592 May 22, 2008 3:20:15 PM
brian_mclean says:
Casino Drive info now up on Belmont page[Thanks!].
I agree with Chris Garrity. I'll be trying to beat Big Brown.
Chris you're not a bad person. It's called seeking value.
Posted by Brian McLean May 22, 2008 3:07:47 PM
kyle says:
This is off subject, but I'm sure you'll be getting to it. Are we about to see the screwing of the customer in New York to appease Bloomberg? How did I know slots would be followed by a takeout increase? Should seem counter-intuitive. But not in racing.
Posted by kyle May 22, 2008 2:23:50 PM
andyscoggin says:
Image what SECRETARIAT'S Beyers would have been!!
Posted by AndyScoggin May 22, 2008 2:09:00 PM
don_reed says:
Steve, re-posting, if I may; this made the tail end of your previous log. And indeed, a very happy 86th birthday to mother Judith, whose career gets a 125 Beyer! One can only imagine living that interesting a life...
Went to Belmont today, May 21st, 2008, for the first time in three years. The place is a WRECK. Has NYRA's bankruptcy resulted in their maintenance budget being eviscerated?
Welcome to New York City, 1975! When our train pulled in, there it was - a world-class eyesore. The LIRR has dumped all sorts of obsolete & dilapidated engines & cars on the various unused spurs of the BP station.
(For those of you from other parts of the country, Belmont Park has its own "dead-end" station, centered @ 250 yards from the main tracks of the northern branch of the Long Island Railroad system. It's a terrible idea. No better example of "out of sight, out of mind" exists.)
The paint on the pedestrian bridge spanning over the train yard is peeling, everywhere. None of the wooden elevated pedestrian ramps below, standing by the spurs, have ever been varnished or painted - & have been bleached so bone dry, they look like the skeletons of animals that have perished in a desert.
There are ominous cracks & holes an inch deep in the surface concrete of the bridge (when fans leave after the Belmont Stakes, up to 300 of them at one time can be standing on this ancient structure, forced to wait for the trains below to fill and leave before they can proceed). One of the three train-to-bridge escalators has been permanently entombed in plywood ("Why bother fixing it?").
The entire West End of the 1st & 2nd floors (& possibly others) have been engulfed by enormous wooden "temporary" walls - why, who knows - blocking the usual access to the park for fans arriving by train. Other various pieces of junk & debris were strewn all around the ground floor & on the grass in the West End.
In the center of the grandstand area, the "instant replay center" monitors were still out of service (wires tangling out of more skeletons). Dead branches hang suspended in the trees, in the paddock area.
The electronic tote boards in the infield - even in perfect working order, an eyesore from Day One - had various stray lights lit, unconnected to letters & numerical symbols stating the racing results. And other lights that should have been lit, were dark.
With the Belmont Stakes less than three weeks away, there's obviously been no sense of emergency about getting the facility ready in time. Thousands of racing fans on June 7th, when they arrive by train (their only possible mode of transportation), are going to be seeing what could pass for a Third-World sports facility - Castro's Havana, with the 1959 Ford Fairlanes & Oldsmobiles still the only private cars on the streets.
They have made various substantial improvements to the facility in the last ten years. And for that, they should get all the credit to which they're entitled. But when people see in less than three weeks what shape the place is in now, all that goodwill, honestly acquired, will be in serious jeopardy.
When I got back to Manhattan, Penn Station - & even above ground, on 34th Street & 7th Avenue - looked & felt like civilization. What a relief!
P.S.: To avoid this frightful train station situation, outlined above, on June 7th, seal yourself up in a box and have UPS - "Big Brown" - deliver you right to the front gate.
Posted by Don Reed May 22, 2008 1:37:34 PM
kevin_martin says:
Hi Steve: For something totally unrelated, I thought you might enjoy my latest post on Colin's Ghost about Pittsburg Phil (www.colinsghost.org). Thanks, Kevin
Posted by Kevin Martin May 22, 2008 1:18:43 PM
terry_p says:
Very minor point:
Curlin's Dubai World Cup and 2007 BC Advance PPs both show his Preakness BSF as 111, not 112.
I wouldn't think his BSF for the Preakness could still change after a race held this past March.
Posted by terry_p May 22, 2008 12:07:41 PM
silver_charm says:
233 Total Beyers for the first two legs and Silver Charm was life and death to get up in both. Sheeeesh. And the second leg being a three horse bob on the line.
And now we got a horse under complete wraps winning in a gallop while running a 100 Beyer and he is being labeled as Great?
Grateful to the pathetic breeding going on out there but not Great.
Posted by Silver Charm May 22, 2008 11:30:37 AM
bigbrowntriplecrowncom says:
Whether you love him or hate him you have to give Dutrow credit for everything he has done with this horse. That being said, some of his comments about Casino Drive might come back to haunt him. I just watched and read the story on www.bigbrowntriplecrown.com
bill says:
Steve, just wondering if you could post the pps for the useful turf horse (IRE)CENTURY CITY i made a score on him when he won the ARCADIA HANDICAP by using the old TAULBOT"V" angle.
Posted by $BILL May 22, 2008 11:13:47 AM
george_quinn says:
Off the triple crown subject for a moment. Has anyone else had enough of Pat Valenuela? Now he is surfacing in Louisiana! It is like he is Steve Howe from the Dodgers. I for one think he is out of chances. I would not let Pat Valenzuela walk my yorkie.
George in Lexington Ky.
Posted by george quinn May 22, 2008 11:12:12 AM
crich says:
Because of the lack of competition, I don't think much stock can be taken with Big Brown's 100 BSF. I think a good analogy would be a major league pitcher who is given a 10 run lead. He is going to thrown the ball over the plate and let them hit it. He might give up a couple of extra runs and inflate his ERA because he would not pitch with the same intensity as a 2-1 ballgame.
While I think that BB would have earned a higher figure if he was pushed by the competition the last 1/8th, I have never bought the theory that gearing a horse down will leave more for their next race. He still had to race hard for 8.5 furlongs. I've watched racing for 35 years and there is no correlation between how hard a horse raced the last 1/8th their last start and the next. A hard campaign may take its toll but not an isolated part of a race. I remember when Oscar Barrera was claiming horses in NY and winning with them twice a week. God (or Dutrow) knows what he was using. Cheap shot.
The mile and a half of the Belmont is a different animal. When they hit the top of the stretch they either run on, are one-paced or stop. I will never forget sitting in the grandstand for Sunday Silence and Easy Goer with the latter just exploding like BB did in the Preakness. Both left nothing in the tank in the first two legs but EG was better equipped to handle the Belmont.
BB has proved to be freakishly special up to 10 furlongs. Casino Drive has shown some ability and has the pedigree to run the last quarter mile. BB's low BSFs will have no bearing on this outcome.
Posted by C.Rich May 22, 2008 10:29:57 AM
travis_stone says:
Spot-on, Steve W. Sr. Absolutely true. A horse looks like a superstar when it faces competition vastly inferior to himself. Whether it be a $25k claimer against $5k claimers, a grade 1 horse against grade 3's (which is more the scenario this year). I hope he is forced to earn it this time, he gets tested a bit, as that will vindicate the crown a bit in my eyes. Should be a great day!
Posted by Travis Stone May 22, 2008 9:50:52 AM
jrzingg says:
Steve who does the charts for Pimlico?
the chart had Big Brown "ridden out", should we believe anything in these charts?
Posted by jrzingg May 22, 2008 9:45:52 AM
chris_garrity says:
I can't believe that so many are so willing to overlook subpar speed figures when a horse figures to be 1-5. Yes, Big Brown has won, and yes, he's made it look easy, but I will be lustfully betting against BB in two weeks. I'd love to see a Triple Crown, but I also love golden betting opportunities, and this (potentially) is one.
Does this make me a bad person?
Posted by Chris Garrity May 22, 2008 9:04:02 AM
brian_mclean says:
Strange that there’s no Casino Drive info in the Belmont Stakes pages[more frustrating than strange actually]. I was wondering what his BSF was and if he’s been to the track since the Peter Pan?
Posted by Brian McLean May 22, 2008 8:11:38 AM
steve_wolfson_sr says:
Sunday Silence had Easy Goer. Silver Charm had Touch Gold. Affirmed, of course, had Alydar. Unless, and until, Big Brown has a foil [if one exists], he does not deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as the previous Triple Crown winners, or even those other greats like Forego and Kelso, which danced every dance, took on all comers, and gave away great gobs of weight.
Posted by steve wolfson, sr. May 22, 2008 7:51:04 AM
ray_manley says:
Steve,
Tell your Mom Happy Birthday. I would think that lunch and a cake in the Belmont Terrace would be on the schedule for today. Cheers!
Posted by Ray Manley May 22, 2008 7:43:01 AM
beerbelly says:
...The only obstacle BB faces in the Belmont other than a fast plodding Denis of Cork is the distance. His bloodlines might offer a clue:
BB's 2nd Dam Miasma is out of LEAR FAN from ROBERTO.
3rd Dam Syrian Circle is out of Damascus.
4th Dam Friendly Circle was sired by Round Table.
Translation: TRIPLE CROWN.
Note to Casino Drive followers: His energy distribution in the Peter Pan is compatible for 10 furlongs which would be the top of the Belmont stretch after which he'll see BB's fanny get smaller & smaller.
Posted by beerbelly May 22, 2008 6:43:33 AM
gofor_broke says:
BB's Derby Beyer doesn't reflect how wide he eas on both turns. On sheets, it's more like a 120 Beyer. They've been keeping him wide on purpose.
All the Belmonts with a crown on the line involve 2 factors: the quality of the challengers and how much the big horse regresses. And that's how we'll analyze this one
Posted by gofor broke May 22, 2008 6:23:43 AM
spectacularbid says:
it is hard to imagine big brown bouncing off a 100 beyer preakness. his breeding and his running style say that the distance will not be a problem. the wild card is casino drive. my question is why, if everyone seemed to dismiss big brown in the derby because he was not seasoned enough, they now think a horse making his third start will even warm up the ups express?
Posted by spectacularbid May 22, 2008 2:12:38 AM
pp says:
History does repeat itself. There is no truer axiom than in horse racing. There's something to be said about a horse going into the Belmont undefeated after winning the first two legs. This accomplishment alone puts Big Brown in a very select group. The question each handicapper needs to ask him/herself is this: Where does Big Brown rank among the following three horses: Seattle Slew, Majestic Prince, and Smarty Jones?
If you think Big Brown has a better shot than Smarty did of getting the mile and a half, then there should be no doubt/second-guessing his coronation. The differences between BB and Smarty are distinctive: BB is more rateable/tractable. BB can relax (Smarty's inability early allowed him to fall victim to race-riding tactics by the other Belmont contenders). And BB has a jockey that has ridden for the Crown before (it's been 10 years...).
Seattle Slew was in a league of his own. He went to the lead and said "catch me if you can"...and they couldn't. He was tons the best after breaking very slow in the Derby. And he was just a better horse than his competition.
Majestic Prince won narrow victories against arch-rival Arts and Letters in the first two. He differs from BB in that he didn't really have an easy time of either. And we all know Longden's reluctance to enter the Belmont, but Frank McMahon sent the horse anyways, and he was done after that. He is similar to Real Quiet in that the runner-up in his first two legs came back to deny him the Crown, a la Victory Gallop. Interestingly, Majestic Prince sired Coastal who went on to deny a Crown of his own, that of Spectacular Bid's attempt in '79.
BB is different from Majestic Prince, in that MP had 8 races before the Derby, whereas BB only had an astounding 3.
Many veteran handicappers believe in a battle-tested colt entering the mile and a half. But the truth of the matter is, in today's horse racing world, the fragility of the breed has deemed it necessary to protect your horse, and get him to peak at just the right time. And BB's smart, easy victory in the Preakness means he has not peaked (unlike Smarty, and unlike MP's hard-fought Preakness).
Therefore, it may be possible to conclude that BB stands a better chance to sweep the Crown than did Smarty, and even Majestic Prince. This conclusion is based on the lack of (a) peak performance(s) before the Belmont, excessive racing, jockey inexperience at the Belmont oval, and lack of an arch-rival who had presented as some type of adversary.
This is not to say that BB is in the league of Seattle Slew. Let us not desecrate that holy ground. Let's see him in the breeding shed before we dare venture into that sacred territory.
But BB and SS have something in common: WEAK OPPOSITION!
You put a good horse (and there is no debate on this, please...BB is, at the least, GOOD) in with weak opposition, at some point, in one year or another, he'll be able to sweep the Crown.
It's been 30 years. Please do not waste your time second-guessing this quality colt. If you're looking to get a better price than odds-on, work the pick 4, pick 3, or even the double. Casino Drive may not even be the favorite for underneath in the exacta pools. The best play would be the trifecta.
Posted by PP May 22, 2008 1:45:56 AM
samg says:
Steve,Real Quiet is my favorite because I made a lot of money on him but his total should be 218.I don`t think the low figure in the Preakness is a concern considering how impressively he did it and that it will be the second highest last out BSF.It`s a shame we don`t have figures for the ones who made it tho Andrew Beyer may have some.My own fascination with the numbers probably goes back to the hours I spent in my youth pouring over baseball statistics.Wether you like Dutrow or not he hasn`t made any mistakes with this horse so far and I think BB will be ready to run a huge race.
Posted by SamG May 22, 2008 1:28:02 AM
nick_briglia says:
Looking at some of the horses that failed to win the Triple Crown might indicate that a big Preakness effort is a negative.
Smarty Jones 107/118
Funny Cide 109/114
Real Quiet 107/111
Silver Charm 115/118
Perhaps if they didn't run big Preakness numbers and didn't top their Kentucky Derby efforts then they would have had more left for the Belmont.
Big Brown's "soft" win in the Preakness might make him an even surer bet in the Belmont since he has that much more left in the tank.
Posted by Nick Briglia May 22, 2008 12:28:10 AM
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About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He recently released an instructional DVD titled "Exotic Tickets," and is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
