What the Will-pays Say

Double
Over $2.02 million was wagered on the Oaks-Derby double, and I've found the will-pays to be at least as good a guide to likely Derby odds as the advance betting on the race itself. Below is the list of payoffs, the percentage of the live pool they represent, and the equivalent win odds based on those percentages (including Kentucky's 16 percent win-pool takeout). I've also listed the advance-wagering win-pool odds as of 6:30 p.m., with just $446,183 in that pool:

I'd recommend caution over some of the anomalies in the advance-betting win pool vs. the willpay equivalents, like Eight Belles being just 8-1 as opposed to 20-1 or Big Truck being 20-1 instead of 80-1. The DD pool was over four times larger than the Friday win pool, and it's hard to imagine many people other than casual visitors and souvenir collectors buying their tickets a day in advance.

A few other observations on the willpays:

*53.3 percent of the total betting was on just 3 of the 20 Derby horses -- Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro.

*Court Vision was a very surprising fourth choice in the betting, at the equivalent of just 12-1.

*Seven horses are at least twice their morning-line price in the equivalent-odds, including Tale of Ekati (15) at 31-1, Cool Coal Man (20) at 43-1, Bob Black Jack (20) at 51-1 and Recapturetheglory (20) at 58-1.

*Big Truck is the early leader over Anak Nakal for Longest of the Long

Posted by Steven Crist May 2, 2008 9:37:29 PM | Permalink

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Comments

lb says:

I hope my previous blog gets on. I'm one of those older folks- you know, the one's that get confused at the windows, then you get shut out. And this blogging stuff is still new to me.
However, I thanked you for the information on the oaks/derby dbl. Then I went on to complain about how little of this is presented on TV racing.
The horseplayer gets screwed in many different ways. Perhaps, we should form a association so we could organize efforts to communicate with those who should treat us like customers.
I know that won't happen, I'm just venting.

Posted by LB May 4, 2008 8:45:43 PM

dfwbuck says:

flip---
thanks for the update on somebeach...i thought i heard he was NOT coming south of the border for the Pace or the Jug? any truth to that rumor?

Posted by dfwbuck May 3, 2008 12:35:27 PM

mark_c says:

To Spike
I agree 100%
but,sadly,a boycott by horseplayers is just a fantasy.
I am prepeared to leave the racetrack for the casino at the end of this Belmont meet. I am sure my $$$ won't be missed by NYRA

Posted by mark c May 3, 2008 12:09:15 PM

arazi says:

With one more big day remaining and by looking at the results of Friday, is my feeling true that today is not a good betting card? Yesterday, I couldn't make myself bet a single race becaues of the track condition and standout favorites except Giant Gizmo.

I went through the few races and got the feeling that it could be another formful day except non-stakes races maybe and the KD itself.

So far, I've just come up with a double (Einstein/Monba, Cowboy Cal) and the win on both Monba and Cowboy cal in the derby. As a longshot player, this looks like killing fields for longshots.

Not interested in betting non-stakes races. Wouldn't it be a good idea to focus on Belmont and try to squeeze some money from there?

Tried to figure out the all stakes pick 4 at CD but feeling that only KD could offer a value play.

Hope Steve's Live Broadcast will continue today....which was much more fun to read than actual racing yesterday. Truly wish that all these AWD companies could learn a little from Steve's coverage and realize how interesting they can make the racing.

I read all the problems some of these guys are facing with God-knows-how-many AWD companies. Blissfully, I have an account with HPI which offers tracks from all over the world.

Posted by Arazi May 3, 2008 11:18:47 AM

samg says:

From CD`s website:

Track Maintenance
Time of Report:

Saturday, May 3 - 8:24 a.m. EDT

What is the condition of the main track?
The main track is: Sloppy

What did you do to the main track this morning?
Due to overnight rain, morning training at Churchill Downswas cancelled. The track was worked overnight and squeezed to remove excess moisture. The track is being harrowed to allow for further drying, and it will be sealed before today's first race. Today's weather forecast in Louisville calls for mostly to partly cloudy skies with possible isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. The high temperature is expected to be 70 degrees.

What is the condition of the turf course?
The turf course is: Yielding

Where is the temporary rail set on the turf course today?
Lane 1 (on the hedge)

Posted by SamG May 3, 2008 10:15:11 AM

mike_ says:

The implied odds on Z Fortune (deduced by Steve via the DD pool) are rougly 14-1. He ran a 102 Beyer in The Ark Derby after a very wide trip. Adjust for the trip and he ran a Beyer in the range of 108 to 112. Bounce theorist may pitch him, but I think he's clearly the horse to key on. In fact, I think he'll beocme the second NY-bred to win the Derby in six yrs.

Flip, Court Vision is a complete and total pitch, imo. His Wood performance just wasn't impressive. He's the type of that you look at (on a superficial level) and think he'll like the extra 1/8 of a mile. In reality, his pace figures are so ungodly awful that he just doesn't fit. Then again you had Volponi and I did not.

Posted by mike May 3, 2008 10:09:58 AM

easygoer says:

From the guy who gave you A to the Croft in the Oaks--
(but this time I'm actually betting):

I've always wanted to go to the window and say: "Box the 18-19-20" so that's what I'm gonna do. Then I'm throwing in some combinations with the 15.

Then I'm taking a deep breath and hopping on the 18 across the board.

Please feel free to laugh.

Posted by easygoer May 3, 2008 10:08:39 AM

mlnj says:

Okay. Time to make a fool of myself!

I think that the Bluegrass was the strongest of the preps when the prep fields were drawn. I think breeding matters. So I'm going to take 25-1 or so on Monba. Maybe I'll throw in a few Monba-Visionaire exactas too.

Posted by ml/nj May 3, 2008 8:15:43 AM

flip_dawson says:

AT THE TRACK: Poor weather and thick fog that squelched almost all visibility at Mohawk Raceway led trainer Brent MacGrath to scratch Somebeachsomewhere from yesterday's qualifying race. The 3-year-old pacing colt will try again Monday. Correcting some wrong info here, Rocknroll Hanover was the first 2-year-old pacer to beat 1:50 when he won the Metro in 2004 in 1:49 4/5. Beach, as they call him in the barn, lowered that record to 1:49 3/5 last year. ... Racing regular Phil Dawson is touting Court Vision in a wide-open Kentucky Derby, a race that, sadly, seems to shrink a little more each year on the sporting calendar.

Posted by Flip Dawson May 3, 2008 8:04:37 AM

andyscoggin says:

Hey flip, sounds like john_d has figured out the Secret Play! And everyone is listening to your pick of CV!

Personally, I am keying Pyro in the TRI's with 8 horses (A/BCDEFGHI/BCDEFGHI and BCDEFGHI/A/BCDEFGHI and BCDEFGHI/BCDEFGHI/A)hoping BB and CJ will run out and produce a big payout, though I have included them in my 8 horses. That's 3 @ $56.

Good luck everyone!

Posted by AndyScoggin May 3, 2008 7:19:05 AM

spike says:

...[O]nce again the bettors are getting screwed. When will anyone understand that there are certain factors that make up the game of horse racing.

Race tracks, horses, bettors.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but how does the race tracks make their money ?

From the money that my fellow brothers and sisters wager.

What would happen if nobody showed up and wagered on a race.

We all know that the race tracks can have a race with just 2 horses and the bettors will still wager on the race.

What if just 2 bettors placed wagers on a race.

The pool would be less than the prize for the winning horse.

Where does the money come from that keeps racetracks in business.

Do the horses have to pay to run. I know if they are supplemented

Why cant bettors wager online for the Oaks card and the Derby card.

Because the track and horseman are fighting over the amount of money they get from wagers.

Horseplayers are very smart people, but why is it that we allow for everyone profit, while we get the short end of the stick day in and day out.

The race track profits from the wagers we make from their take which can range from 10% to 30%.
The IRS taxes the players but does not allow for them to write off their losses.

Why is it that Magna gets to write off millons of dollars when they file taxes.

I am getting ahead of myself, because bettors cannot wager online races held at Churchill Downs or Belmont.

Why because the track and horseman are fighting over who gets the lions share of the money that we wager on a race.

The only headlines DRF should have are how once again the backbone of horse racing, the people that wager their hard earned money and I do mean hard earned, because it is hard enough to pick a winner, than the track takes their cut and the IRS takes theirs .

Why is it that the people that play penny slots get free parking free admission free drinks and horseplayers get nickeled and dimed from all directions.

It is about time that we the bettors that are the only reason the tracks stay in business, stand up and say enough is enough.

What would happen if the bettors went on strike.

Where would the tracks get the money that keeps them open.

So...start blogging about the ways in which we the bettors can stop getting screwed and start getting respect that we deserve because without us there would be no horse racing.

Posted by SPIKE May 3, 2008 2:49:08 AM

chisox says:

Steve,
Thanks for the will pays for the double. Amazingly they were not posted on the Derby or the Oaks website. Go Colonel John!.

Posted by Chisox May 3, 2008 12:56:09 AM

meadowlake59 says:

Would have preferred if Bsharpsonata lasted today but still had PS (along with everyone else). Now I will root on my deep longshot play, BBJ, to reprise the role of War Emblem in "Stealing the Derby--The Sequel". Of course I'll settle for CJ or Pyro but if BBJ does it, the Juleps are on me!!! :)

Posted by meadowlake59 May 3, 2008 12:28:21 AM

john_d_strongosky says:

Sorry,left one thing out ,approaching 11:00 PM EST and haven't even looked at the under card, time to get busy!!! My Dad passed 2 days after the derby last year, I can still hear him yelling at Woody when he sent 49er after the Colors in the Preakness sacrificing his chances just so she wouldn't get loose on the lead like the Derby. Will be making my first stop at his grave to drop a rose and ask for a little help from the racing Gods....

The Colonel From Cuse

Posted by John D Strongosky May 2, 2008 10:48:42 PM

john_d_srongosky says:

Very interesting on Court Vision. Sitting on a $200 future on The Colonel at 19-1 plus used him in the DD with PS but harder with Pure Clan then PS, also saved with 2 $40 DD PC,PS with Little Beige(Big Brown)Also have $10 PS with 9-12-13-18.Somehow I left my boy Smitty off my DD ticket. Back in my old Vernon downs days i uses to computate the probables with the the will pays and bet the horse in the second half with the highest % drop from ML. Guess I'm on Court Vision, always liked this horse, GO GO Mott, now i have to save again. Not all The Colonel!!! think Larry entered the wrong Horse in the Derby, then again maybe he knew 8 bells could not beat the Spell. Well good luck on my Christmas Day and hope i take home that high five car thing.

Out,

The Colonel from Syracuse

Posted by John D Srongosky May 2, 2008 10:18:10 PM

dick_wright says:

Steve
Thanks so much for posting the Oaks-Derby will pays and calculated odds...that is just the information I was trying to locate.

Posted by Dick Wright May 2, 2008 10:02:37 PM

floppydog says:

How are we supposed to bet the undercard? Any chance of an overnight settlement?

Posted by Floppydog May 2, 2008 10:01:19 PM

klosa says:

Steve, do you have the overnight win odds on the 20 horses for the derby? I know there's only about 10% of the final pool in there now, but just curious. ESPN breifly showed this during the Oaks telecast but couldn't write it down quickly enough.

Posted by klosa May 2, 2008 9:54:33 PM

scoopdraw says:

Hi: Is there any place to see what the current Derby odds are for the horses based on money bet today on tomorrows Derby?

Posted by ScoopDraw May 2, 2008 9:53:27 PM

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About

Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He is the author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."

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