Crist Blog | June 08, 2008
Brownout
Big Brown would have won the Belmont and the Triple Crown yesterday if he'd run his usual race, but he obviously didn't. His connections remained puzzled and "perplexed" Sunday morning, but something clearly went terribly wrong after a mile. Big Brown was unresponsive when asked to make his usual move and in enough distress to be pulled up shortly thereafter.
This was not a Crown-busting Belmont where a worthy rival close in ability to the favorite stepped up his game and ran the better race, a la Easy Goer, Touch Gold, Victory Gallop or Empire Maker. Big Brown effectively didn't show up. Da' Tara reeled off progressively slower front-running fractions, and was perfectly catchable by horses of high quality but there weren't any still running in the stretch. The winner's 2:29.65 for 12 furlongs earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 99, the lowest Belmont in the 20 years since the Beyers have been published, and one could argue that even a 99 was slightly generous.
Big Brown's performance was a bit reminiscent of War Pass's last-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby just three months ago, where some argued he had been exposed as a pretender, others said there had to be a health-related explanation, and the whole thing remains a mystery, as it often does when a good horse runs a horrifically bad race. That race also came to mind since War Pass sure began the year as a likelier candidate than Da' Tara to put owner Bob LaPenta and trainer Nick Zito into the winner's circle after a Triple Crown race this year.
Two other races came to mind after the Belmont, ones involving previous skirmishes between the winning and losing connections. In the 2005 Woodward, Rick Dutrow ran two overmatched sprinters at Zito's Commentator to soften him up for Saint Liam. In the Wood Memorial two months ago, IEAH entered the rabbit Inner Light to wear down War Pass early for the benefit of their Court Vision. Both times it "worked" insofar as compromising Zito's chances. Zito never complained publicly about either incident, and I'm not saying he entered D'Tara and Anak Nakal in retribution, or instructed their riders to surround Big Brown on the first turn, but there was at least a pinch of karma involved in the way it all worked out.
I'm not going to try to pretend I liked Da' Tara, who was not one of the four alternatives to Big Brown I had gotten myself alive to in the pick-four for a small score. The only retrospective self-flagellation I'll indulge in was being too quick to dismiss his effort in the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard, where he lost a photo to Roman Emperor in the final strides. The time of that race (1:42.10 for a mile and a sixteenth) was in the same ballpark as Big Brown's 1:54.80 in the Preakness if you took it at face value instead of thinking the track slowed down or that Big Brown could have run a lot faster had he been extended rather than geared down late.
I doubt we'll ever get a definitive explanation for what happened to Big Brown in the Belmont. Romantics will say that the deities who guard the pantheon of greatness kept out a horse who wasn't The Anointed One, a horse who wasn't quite as fast or accomplished or deserving as the three great ones who are our only Triple Crown winners in the last 60 years. Horseplayers of a more cynical bent will simply shrug and say that heavy favorites often lose, and that this was simply the 11th straight Derby-Preakness winner to come up short in the Belmont.
---I'm pretty sure there's a $1.18 million pick-six carryover awaiting us at Belmont when racing resumes Wednesday. For whatever reason -- confusion because of the $1 million guarantee yesterday? -- Equibase did not report the pick-six pool or a carryover amount, so everyone's charts show only a 5-of-6 payoff of $1,106, and NYRA does not have its usual Carryover banner on its homepage. [Update: Ah, there it is.] I remember getting one brief glance at posted pick-six probables, and my memory is that the 2,6 and 8 -- Guadalcanal, Da' Tara and Anak Nakal -- were the only uncovered horses.
---Sorry about the failed iPhone-blogging experiment yesterday. I spent the first four races trying to make it work, but slow servers and intermittent wi-fi outages just made it impossible. Tempting as it was to duck out of the heat and into an air-conditioned pressbox, I was stubbornly determined to soak up the day in the stands, so I spent the afternoon in the great outdoors, perspiring, wagering and participating in the spontaneous conversion of men's rooms into unisex facilities amid water and plumbing outages.
It felt more like an oppressive day at Saratoga than a Belmont Day, though decidedly less crowded than the Smarty Jones and Funny Cide years. The crowd count of 94,476 and commingled handle of about $99 million were both 15 to 20 percent lower than the 2004 record numbers, though up sharply from 2007, when there was no Triple Crown on the line.
There was plenty of other good racing on the Saturday card, and I'll compose some thoughts on it tomorrow after spending some time with the charts and replays.
Posted by Steven Crist Jun 8, 2008 3:05:38 PM | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
jz says:
Absolutely great comments, many by fans and afficiandos of this great sport. It's comforting to see there remain a legion of fans like me (who started out betting the ponies in 1970 at the big A and Belmont)passionate about a great sport being ruined by the same ailment afflicting America -- greed, lack of vision, and bravado (as in the case of Team BB)who are eventually exposed for the shallow and vain louts they are.
The absolute bizzare nature of this race complete with "assurances of victory", the 50+ lengths of victory in five previous races (albeit against a most inferior group of 3 year olds...pulling up the horse in the stretch, post race results revealing absolutely nothing wrong with the horse, trainer and jockey unsure or unwilling to explain anything clues including what their pre-race strategy was, makes for a "Lone Gunman Conspiracy" mentality ready to catch fire. Especially if BB is going along doing great in training for the Travers and suddenly pulls an Afleet Alex. Or worse yet, runs in the Travers and BOMBS. Then the investigations will begin.
Maybe it won't be a Big Deal but the...nature of Team BB makes me think if of the Wall Street[ers] who look for every edge to beat the system Or maybe in the end, it's nothing more than sheer hubris on the part of trainer and owners and jockey that they thought that the Equine "Booster Rocket' can fire on automatic at any time in any environment, on any track unde any conditions. Probably a combination of all these and more.
I'll close by saying that if the industry has any hope of surviving in any fashion, other than a few fat cat owner and breeders they need to do the following:
* Universally impose a Ban on all drugs and steroids beginning in 2009,
* Dedicate more $ to testing for illegal substances and beef up resources (look at Olympic atheletes they regularly beat the toughest testing in the world),
* Identify a few true champions of the sport who embrace developing their horses for racing as opposed to racing as a warmup for the B-Shed. Now that is probably pollyhanna on my part but if we want any kind of longevity, new legions of fans and above all stars to root for, it will have to be done.
Otherwise the only fans left in 20 + years will be those folks living in assisted living facilities or worse yet nursing homes playing the equines via TVG...Oh perish the thought.
Posted by JZ Jun 10, 2008 10:19:27 PM
allemeuse says:
Big B's problem could have been as simple as getting his tongue over the bit...
Posted by allemeuse Jun 10, 2008 3:29:16 PM
dan_baedeker says:
Thank you, tom_atwater.
So that means Dennis of Cork dropped 4 points from his Beyer high, and Macho Again dropped much more from his Beyer high of 99 in the Derby Trial.
Da' Tara improved 10 points from his Derby Trial fifth {by 5 lengths)to Macho Again. Guess Zito just knows how to make them run faster in Ozone Park.
Posted by Dan Baedeker Jun 10, 2008 1:20:43 PM
richp says:
20$ fro Belmont admission is a bargain. It's a special event you pay special event prices. If 20$ is to much to pay to watch the belmont stay home.
You want to talk about rip offs how about pro football forcing you to buy all the exibition games in order to get a season ticket.
You pay more for an all star game than you do for a regular baseball game. If you can get a ticket w/o going to a scalper.
Name one major profesional sporting "event" All start ganme Playoff etc.) that you can get general admission to for $20
Posted by RichP Jun 10, 2008 11:37:37 AM
wc_ says:
Steve,
At this point I think it's absolutely essential that DRF start publishing the track variant that Beyer used for every race in Simulcast Daily where it gives the winners and winning Beyer figures.
There are simply FAR TOO MANY RACES where figure makers have to make a subjective decision about whether or not a track changed speeds or a group of horses ran slower/faster than seemed likely based on their PPs.
IMO, the biggest problem is that pace often effects final time, but many figure makers are not sufficiently sensitive to that fact or don't quite grasp all the pace relationships because the are so complex.
In any event, lowering DTara's figure was another of an endless list suspect decisions that may have cost some people money.
It is quite possible he legitmately ran a much faster figure in the Barbaro (perhaps because of the soft but not extremely slow pace). However, the impact the pace had (if any) should be up to the handicapper to decide, not the figure maker who might simply assume the track changed speeds.
A notation somewhere in the DRF that a race was broken out from the day or providing the actual variants in S. Daily, would solve the problem and not force people to check variants for races around the country themselves.
Another obvious case is the recent Met Mile and the very fast pace cut by Commentator. That race highlights another potential problem for handicappers. The race was speeded up to a logical figure, but IMHO it is obvious the very fast pace negatively impacted a few of the horses. I feel sorry for the poor trip handicapper that thinks Commentator actually ran a 109 off a very fast pace and assumes he's a lot better than his figure.
Posted by W,C. Jun 10, 2008 8:31:43 AM
greg says:
Once Big Brown gets his usual dose of steroids he will probably run well again. No mystery here. There should be a total ban on all drugs in racing nationwide.
Posted by greg Jun 10, 2008 12:29:09 AM
walt says:
The biggest reason to me you had the dropoff in attendance was the heat. Quite a few people on various forums have said they did not go because of the heat.
Another likely reason for the attendance dropoff from 2004 was the fact that there was a planned service interrution on the "J" subway line for track work that probably discouraged many in Brooklyn and Queens from going due to having to take a shuttle bus to the "E" train, which like the J terminates at Parsons-Archer in Queens where you switch to the Q110 bus to go to the track.
On top of that, the economy was also likely a factor, as many people have less discresionary income to spend these days as well. The ban on bringing in alcohol probably also kept some away, but I don't think nearly as many as some seem to think.
Posted by Walt Jun 9, 2008 11:27:09 PM
tom_atwater says:
saarland said:
"Belmont trainer who I respect commented to me that Big Brown appeared to be laboring over the Belmont surface when he worked last Tuesday...."
Steve, I really would have liked to have read Mike Welsch's take on the physical state of Belmont and Preakness runners pre-race, like he does for the Derby (which has excellent coverage on the workouts and such, by the way).
The above comment in particular makes this important.
Was this person the only one to see this?
What did Welsch think of how BB looked last week?
There was no hint of anything like this (BB laboring) in any published report that I saw. As far as I could tell he was training fine, except for the time missed from the quarter crack business.
The DRF being the standard for such reporting, I would hope in the future we could see a column or two from Welsch on the other TC races on this subject.
dan_baedeker said:
"Did Denis Of Cork run a slower Belmont than Kentucky Derby?"
Da'Tara got a 99.
DOC was beaten 5 1/4 lengths, or 6 Beyer points at 1 1/2 mi.
So he gets a 93.
He got a 97 in the Derby.
Posted by Tom Atwater Jun 9, 2008 9:45:54 PM
tom says:
Did anyone notice that prior to the race that Big Brown seemed oblivious to the heat; his coat was bone-dry. Is it possible that his "tank" was already empty before the race started. While not a vet, my observation over the years has been that it is not good for a horse to be "washed" out, but one would think that he would have shown some signs of the heat. Anyone have any knowledge on this subject?
Posted by Tom Jun 9, 2008 6:31:44 PM
bemo says:
wayne80:
Well stated on the condition of the building. My wife an dI had the pleasure of attending Belmont Park on Memorial Day ( we are from Chicago). Beaturiful race track, back yard and paddock but the building desperately needs updating. The grandstand bathrooms are hellacious.
It is understandable that the race track was built to handle the old crowds from the 50's and 60's that were out there every Saturday and then the vast crowd that attends on Belmont Stakes Day. The same applies to Churchhill and Pimlico.
If there is no getting away from that, the infrastructure of the building needs a mjor upgrade. I did enjoy the free seating in the Grandstand. We in chicago have to pay for most of the seats unless you choose the Apron.
As far as the prices go, we have the identical situation for Arlington Million Day - everything is jacked up double, etc.
My wife and I have now visited a fair number of race tracks, including Great Lake Downs!, and can state that Arlington Park and Keeneland are the two finest we have seen so far. Keeneland is fabulous in every respect. Arlington, unfortunately, features a quality of racing that is absolutely abysmal, in stark contrast to the facility.
My wife and I will be back at Belmont Park, but would never do so on a "big event" day. The lines for everything are just too much.
As far as Big Brown's performance, it was too bad it had to end like this.
Posted by bemo Jun 9, 2008 5:15:45 PM
mudhoundmojo says:
Arcstats,
You bring up some very interesting points (again). I do not know much about the effect steroids have on horses, except for what I read. I have heard some experts say that steroids effect a horse in a very similar way they would a human. I have also heard some contrasting points of view to this. I don't know how much weight I should or should not put into BB (susposedly) being taken of his normal "cycle." I do think, with the past digressions of R. Dutrow, it is reasonable for one to conject that there maybe more too Dutrow's announcement that he wouldn't be giving BB his normal dose of winstrol. As I said, I find that to be a very provocative thought.
One thing I found odd is, that when Dutrow made his announcement that he wouldn't be giving BB winstrol in his "normal cycle" before the Belmont, he also said something to the effect of "I don't want to take any chances, everything is going so well." ( That may not be the exact quote, but close). What an odd bit of logic that is. Everything is "going so well" and you don't want too "take any chances", so you change up what you have been doing up to this point. Yea, that's the ticket! That just sounds contradictory to what his announcement was. Unless, you are not putting what he said in the proper context.
For instance, if you are right (Arcstats) and there is more to BB's drug use than just the admitted winstol (legal or not), than the quote might sound more logical. If you assume for a minute, that BB is taking more than just winstol (in terms of performance enhancers that are legal or not), than Dutrow's quotes may not be so contradictory. Perhaps, as Arcstats suggests,( with all the hype that would surround the first TC winner in 30 years and all the negative media already surrounding BB's winstrol use ) Dutrow did not want to risk further inquiry, post race. Perhaps, if BB wins there would be enough fuss to call for a drug test with complete public disclosure. If Arcstats is right and BB has been given more than just winstrol (legal or not), Dutrow would want no part of this. It would obviously destroy BB's reputation (whether legal or not) and taint the TC (whether legal or not), not to mention what it would do to Dutrow and his organization's reputation (legal or not). In this context, perhaps Dutrow's quote that he did not want to "take any chances", was not as contradictory as it sounded on first hearing it.
Posted by MudhoundMojo Jun 9, 2008 5:04:16 PM
snurk says:
Dutrow is "an ambassador for the sport"? Please, tell me you are kidding. The man is a windbag (though not so much post-Belmont) and has hurt racing's image with all his loose talk of the steroids and vitamins he gives his horses. The man bragged about falsifying workouts for his horses! I am relieved that Dutrow/Iavarone and their assorted followers and lowlifes did not get a chance to bask in a triple crown victory.
Big Brown bore out at the start. He was boxed in, yes, but he couldn't relax and it wasn't KD's fault. It looked like the horse bolted to the outside on his own, thus banging Anak Nakal. He got frustrated and gave up.
The other big loser for Belmont day? NYRA, of course. How typical, they found a way to mess up their premier event of the year. Ineptitude, pure and simple. I am one of the women who had to brave the men's toilets. Thanks to all the guys who let me cut the line!
Posted by Snurk Jun 9, 2008 4:58:41 PM
unitas says:
Can someone who frequents the NYRA tracks please explain to me what "upgrades" were made by NYRA at their designated tracks lately? NYRA has boasted recently how many millions they have invested back into their tracks, especially Belmont, for needed upgrades, repairs and face-liftings, and how the tracks are so much more "fan friendly" now than ever before. I don't see it. Saturday was an absolute embarrasment for NYRA, how the utilities(plumbing) failed in the building, how every worker for NYRA was so clueless to whatever question was posed to them, there were no clean-up crews during the day to empty ridiculously overfilled waste recepticles, the beautiful backyard looked like a slum by the 5th race, and the port-o-johns throughout the grandstand for the men was a disgrace. $10 bucks to park, $10 grandstand admission($20 for the clubhouse), $5 programs, you had to hit a superfecta just to get out from parking & admission fees. The only good part of the day, sans the racing, was the absolutley gorgeous ladies on hand. Thank you ladies for spicing up a very drab, hot, humid, and frustrating day. And to think, NYRA was just granted a 30 year extention to be the governing body over NY thoroughbred racing. You can't make this stuff up. What a shame.
Posted by Unitas Jun 9, 2008 4:42:46 PM
unitas says:
Can someone who frequents the NYRA tracks please explain to me what "upgrades" were made by NYRA at their designated tracks lately? NYRA has boasted recently how many millions they have invested back into their tracks, especially Belmont, for needed upgrades, repairs and face-liftings, and how the tracks are so much more "fan friendly" now than ever before. I don't see it. Saturday was an absolute embarrasment for NYRA, how the utilities(plumbing) failed in the building, how every worker for NYRA was so clueless to whatever question was posed to them, there were no clean-up crews during the day to empty ridiculously overfilled waste recepticles, the beautiful backyard looked like a slum by the 5th race, and the port-o-johns throughout the grandstand for the men was a disgrace. $10 bucks to park, $10 grandstand admission($20 for the clubhouse), $5 programs, you had to hit a superfecta just to get out from parking & admission fees. The only good part of the day, sans the racing, was the absolutley gorgeous ladies on hand. Thank you ladies for spicing up a very drab, hot, humid, and frustrating day. And to think, NYRA was just granted a 30 year extention to be the governing body over NY thoroughbred racing. You can't make this stuff up. What a shame.
Posted by Unitas Jun 9, 2008 4:42:14 PM
crich says:
How did Guadalcanal go off at 25-1 in the Belmont (lower than Da'Tara, Anak Nakal and Ready's Echo).
By no means should this be taken as any disrespect to the people who have bravely served this country, but was it VFW day at the track.
The only reason Fred Seitz put the house in the race is because he thought he could be programmed in the same race as a Triple Crown winner and he wanted good seats since the place was sold out.
The owners of IcaBAD Crane should be embarrassed that the could not outstumble this nag.
Posted by C.Rich Jun 9, 2008 4:41:51 PM
kristen says:
While there is certainly a lot you can blame NYRA for, the water problem probably isn't one of them. There was a pressure problem for the entire town. They think maybe from people opening hydrants because of the heat.
Posted by Kristen Jun 9, 2008 3:32:19 PM
mlnj says:
Hey RichP! I've been to the Super Bowl.
Comparing the Super Bowl to the Belmont Stakes is just a bit naive. The whole country stops for the Super Bowl. Belmont Stakes Day is not even close to the biggest day in racing. I repeat what I've tried to say here before. Horse racing was a heck of a lot better off when only the provincial tracks tried to make all their money on one day, and the Belmont Stakes was just the sixth race on the NY card.
Posted by ml/nj Jun 9, 2008 2:08:18 PM
donna says:
Let's stop to remember that 35 years ago today a "Tremendous Machine" named Secretariat won the Belmont Stakes by 31 lengths. They certainly don't make them like that anymore.
Posted by Donna Jun 9, 2008 2:01:41 PM
julian_brown says:
Steve, I couldn't find an email address for "letters to the editor" so I posted it here.
Don’t Forget the Rider
Many excuses are being offered for Big Brown’s collapse this weekend: the track surface, the hoof, the heat, the trainer, the closeness of the Triple Crown races, etc. Other than the Daily News, very few people are questioning Kent Desormeux’s ride. Below is the DRF official race chart that describes Big Brown Belmont’s trip:
Big Brown steadied and broke outward at the start, moved up inside, steadied sharply while rank in the opening quarter of a mile, steadied and was taken to the outside bumping with Anak Ankal on the first turn, swung seven wide moving into the backstretch, stalked the leaders while continuing wide for seven furlongs . . . .
Further, in post race interviews with Jeannie Edwards on ABC, Kent told her that Big Brown tried make his move a couple of times on the backstretch but that Kent had to restrain him.
Very few horses could win any race with such a trouble line and possibly no horse could win a mile and a half marathon with such an unlucky beginning while being so rank and continually restrained. A relaxed horse and a ground saving trip (assuming the rail is not deep on a particular day) are paramount in running well in such a long event. But what caused such a troubled trip? Surely a horse with the tactical speed of Big Brown and a leading rider like Kent Desormeaux could get a better journey against this rather slow bunch, right?
It seems that Desormeaux had decided before the race that he was going to track apparently the only other early speed, Da’ Tara, ask Big Brown for run on the far turn, and reach immortality by drawing away in the stretch as he did in Louisville and Baltimore. Unfortunately, the other riders knew this, particularly, Eibar Coa, aboard Tale of Ekati. Kent allowed Da’ Tara to stroll to the lead in front of him, and then nudged Big Brown so that he’d move alongside Da’ Tara into the first turn. But Coa swung Tale of Ekati next to Da’ Tara, putting Kent into what jockeys called “The Box”. Big Brown was rank, wanting to respond to Desormeaux’s instruction, but with nowhere to go. Desormeaux finally found room behind Tale of Ekati and in front of Anal Nakal, while moving wide into the first turn. From this point on, Coa had Kent at his mercy, floating Big Brown unmercifully wide the entire backstretch, far away from Da’ Tara. Coa had forced a rank Big Brown behind slowing horses, and then tossed him hopelessly wide throughout the backstretch, effectively ending his chances at a Triple Crown. (Coa will not receive a Holiday card from Dutrow this year.)
Jockey Ron Turcotte faced a similar predicament in the 1973 Belmont. He drew the rail post aboard Secretariat with the dangerous Sham and Angel Cordero to their outside. Cordero, like Coa, is not the sentimental type who yearns for a Triple Crown winner not ridden by him. Nevertheless, Turcotte would not let Cordero put him in “The Box” and, surprisingly, sent Secretariat to the lead from the inside and dueled inside of Sham throughout en route to the most famous victory in modern racing history. Turcotte risked ridicule if he lost the race on the lead – why he would he send an “affirmed” closer to the lead into what seemed to be a suicide pace at a marathon distance? Why not come off of the pace as normal? Because he wanted to avoid the fate of Kent and Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont.
Desormeaux gambled that he could reach his desired position and was somewhat unlucky that Coa was able to keep him boxed in. A far better tactic would have been to send Big Brown to the lead, and even if Da’ Tara eventually outran him to the lead, he could have eased off Da’ Tara and had plenty of room in a more spread out field to track him. Allowing Da’ Tara to stroll in front of him out of the gate gave him little room to maneuver. Most jockeys understand this, which is why jockeys generally ask their horses for gas early when they draw inside posts.
The Triple Crown requires more than just a great horse, but it requires great racing luck. Desormeaux is unquestionably a top rider, but he failed to rise to the occasion in the Belmont. It is very easy to blame Coa, Big Brown, the heat, the track condition, and the hoof, but it the end, the Triple Crown goes to both a great horse and a great rider. Desormeux failed to deliver for Big Brown.
Posted by Julian Brown Jun 9, 2008 1:57:02 PM
ray_flack says:
I have enjoyed reading all the comments on this great blog. The stuff about the weather, track condition, jockey trepidations etc overlooks a vital fact. All the horses have to run in the exact same conditions. As far as I can tell there is nothing in Da'Tara's background that would indicate he loves a hot, humid day, deep track, jerking jockey or any other things being offered for BB's poor effort. My theory is BB lost because he was in the 1 post position. The only winner of the day in the rail post was Zaftig, who did not break on top but stalked and pounced over her three rivals, including the heavily bet Indian Blessing. Zito, who had two horses in the big race and who knows how to win it, apparently told both jockeys "get the lead and improve on it." That is exactly what Da'Tara and Alan Garcia did. Not one blogger has mentioned the brilliance of jockey Garcia. What a ride!
Also, to George Quinn and Jim Goodman: please adopt me so I can spend the rest of my retirement at Keeneland. But 60 degrees is a bit cool for the A/C, don't you think?
I doubt there will be any investigaton into the reasons why BB was eased. He's worth up to $50 million and the jockey and everyone else knew his race was over before the stretch turn. So why whip him down the long stretch only to finish fifth or worse? Is PETA listening?
Ray
Posted by ray flack Jun 9, 2008 1:08:21 PM
pmack says:
Any idea of what 5/6 would have payed if big brown had won?
Posted by pmack Jun 9, 2008 12:56:13 PM
david_dc says:
BB was not himself-- we can all agree on that. However, the cause of that performance is really unknowable, short of a bleed. Was it the heat, track, trip (doubt it), MISSING MEDS, immaturity, stress, refusal to perform? Who really knows. However, should I be concerned about my bet: $2 tris all-1-all and all-all-1. Did BB have any shot at third? I didnt look that way at the final turn, but query whether I deserved a chance to win my second tri with BB finishing third. Honestly, I doubt here gets fourth, let alone third, but did i deserve at least a chance? This a tough call for me. If the horse was hurt, no problem. But, Ken eased him to save face, and nothing else, it would seem. Agree?
Posted by david_dc Jun 9, 2008 12:34:51 PM
dick_w says:
Just a couple of comments from me. First of all, my prognostications stink ! As for Big Browns performance (or rather lack thereof) I agree with the folks who are suggesting that it is probably not any one thing, but a combination of things (heat, surface, early trouble in the race, ride, training regimen - and yes, Don Reed, even the consequences of hubris - you picked the perfect word to describe the human connections of B B). I do not think the entire matter can be blamed on Kent D. And I don't think it was the distance of the race. B B would not have won the race that day even if it had been a mile.
I'm wondering if Da Tara is going to be another Sarava who after winning the Belmont at 70 to 1 never won another race. We will see.
I was also extremely surprised (as Unitas mentioned) that Guadalcanal went off at 25 to 1. My only explanation is that perhaps a lot of folks (non horseplayers) saw that 50 to 1 morning line and decided they wanted to bet their $2 on the longest shot in the field. Not only did he end up not being the longest shot, but 3 horses had longer odds than he - go figure.
Posted by Dick W Jun 9, 2008 12:23:15 PM
vegan says:
While Desormeaux is dangerous when trying to use his head, unreliable when riding a frontrunner, and guilty of an AWFUL ride Saturday, let's not forget that McCarron rode a disastrous race aboard Alysheba in their Belmont Stakes. In both cases, the margin of defeat was too great to attribute solely to bad piloting. Still, the colts deserved MUCH better rides.
Posted by vegan Jun 9, 2008 12:22:45 PM
prozac_jack says:
To all of you Kent D. lovers out there, why in the HELL do you think Kent D. moved to the East Coast? to freeze his ass off in the winter? NEVER BET BIG MONEY on this creep, We kicked him OUT of Calif for crying out loud for the simply reason he can't be trusted. One of the leading west coast said "with Kent you NEVER KNOW WHAT KIND OF RIDE YOU GOING TO GET" Forgive me I thought the New York boys where smarter than this. Mark my words he will get KICKED OUT of New York next.Maybe P. Val can get this hall of shammer a few mounts at Louisiana.We got sick of losing exacta's because Kent D. wouldn't ride for second money.Please keep him on the East Coast and ALL of you Kent lovers BEWARE.....
Posted by Prozac Jack Jun 9, 2008 12:20:18 PM
handicappy says:
I agree with Fernando's Miss. The breed is fragile and without any real hard racing experience, BB has a very soft foundation. I agree with many of the Dutrow (classless) comments. Regarding KD, why hasn't anyone even noted how bad a judge of what he has under him he has been. So good point Fernando's Miss. And, assuming you are referring to Fernando Jara, Where is he? I miss his amazing rides.
Posted by Handicappy Jun 9, 2008 12:18:57 PM
dennis says:
The Smarty Jones (04) attendance record (120,000) will likely never be broken. The ban on bringing alcohol (beer) into the track on Belmont day after 2004 has killed attendance with the under 30 crowd (the one tracks are trying to attract). If you banned bringing in alcohol at Saratoga attendance will drop dramatically there too. Comparing the Smarty Jones triple crown try to Big Brown as far as attendance goes is comparing apples to oranges.
In my view, the racing form should report it in that context.
Posted by Dennis Jun 9, 2008 11:52:07 AM
green_mtn_punter says:
Steve, you failed to remind us of just how great a race the Belmont is. Too many observers see the Belmont as just the third leg of the Triple Crown but it is really much more than that, even in a disappointing renewal such as 140.
And what it really takes to win the Belmont: It takes many factors coming together at the same time- plus some lady luck- to win it. I think the Belmont is the greatest of the TC races, it is the most challenging, and the most nuanced since it involves pedigree, conditioning, and racing strategy to come home first.
They can trash Da' Tara and Zito all they want but ol' Nick from Brooklyn is proving to be a worthy reminder of Woody Stephens mastery of this historic fixture.
NYRA has done a poor job in properly positioning the historic Belmont Stakes, historic Belmont Park, and NYC in the overall national sports and racing market; the ABC/ESPN coverage does not do this great race justice, a race that should have just as much an aura surrounding it as does the over-hyped, over-rated Derby.
Posted by Green Mtn Punter Jun 9, 2008 11:26:22 AM
james_mc says:
"It felt more like an oppressive day at Saratoga than a Belmont Day, though decidedly less crowded than the Smarty Jones and Funny Cide years. The crowd count of 94,476 and commingled handle of about $99 million were both 15 to 20 percent lower than the 2004 record numbers"
And Funny Cide's Belmont was a monsoon all day.
I suspect the restriction on bringing in booze tends to cut back on attendance by the young partying crowd substantially.
Probably that is the major reason for the decline in attendance vs. '03-'04.
If "coolers" were barred on Derby or Preakness day, I think you'd also see a substantial drop in attendance.
Posted by James Mc. Jun 9, 2008 11:24:16 AM
richp says:
mlnj
Try going to the super bowl, or world series. Racing is amazing in that they don't rake their patrons over the coals on Big days. 20 Bucks for genral admissions on one of teh biggest racing days of the year isn't bad at all.
Most Breeders cup tickets are in the 75$ range. Compare that to a super bowl or all star game.
Posted by RichP Jun 9, 2008 11:04:22 AM
dave says:
Criticize Desormeaux all you want, the bottom line is he could have rode the race of his life... Big Brown was not going to win that race. The horse was done before a mile, it's not like he couldn't get the last 1/4 or furlong. The other horses were streaming by him at the top of the stretch, before KD started to pull him up. Whatever the reason, the horse was just not himself on Saturday.
If KD let Big Brown go early, then a quicker pace would have been created with Datara, and when he lost, everyone would now be killing KD for contesting the pace with the longest shot on the board. Big Brown isn't a horse that needs to be on the lead. In the Derby and Preakness he settled just off the pace and flew away around the turn. It looked to me like KD was trying to do the same thing on Saturday.
Posted by Dave Jun 9, 2008 10:59:27 AM
wayne80 says:
Random caffeinated thoughts.
Sitting in Row A during the Post Parade I told my friend Brown looked fat, out of shape. Beyond that, he looked like a horse ready to run.
I too think, with all the money on the line, that the connections should be called on the carpet by the stewards. There is a national consortium that watches for odd betting patterns, sure they are investigating.
Bad ride, absolutely, but it was due to overconfidence. He was trying the same exact move he made in the Preakness, but this time the other jocks (and trainer, see Steve's excellent Zito story in his blog) shut him off. Fool me once....
The last four winners of the TC all went mostly wire to wire, if he could not lose they should have taken it to them right from the get go instead of getting fancy.
In any case, Kent absolutely, postively, needs to ride that horse out and at least try the whip to see if he responds.
Comparing Servis's post race behaviour with Dutrows in unfair. Smarty was beaten and returned fine. Brown was eased, and Dutrow needed to find out what was wrong.
Say what you want about the man, but he stood there and answered EVERY question, no matter how stupid or how many times asked, for all of three weeks. He did not duck anyone, was a true ambassador for the sport, and his owners, even when NYRA screwed up and did not provide help.
You may not like his brashness, or his answers, but he did not run and hide, unlike some other trainers in the same spot.
As far as the will pays, the P4 Will Pay was $9k with Ready's Echo, $3K with Dennis, and approx $300 with Brown. Was alive with those three, did not note the others.
Durkin announced the carryover while giving the prices, but it was not posted on the tote board.
Not sure how they arrive at the 1.1 Million carryover, the P6 Will Pay with Ready's Echo was listed as about 950k which was obviously one ticket. I was alive for conso 5 with him, so I noticed.
The bathroom situation was a disaster, my wife will not return, and she was not the only woman making that statement, which is a shame.
Not sure what went wrong, or if NYRA can be blamed. Sure it was just a general lack of maintenance in a very old building that severely needs upgrading.
If the State can fork over millions for the baseball teams, they should kick in something to renovate a true landmark building for an industry that creates many more jobs than any baseball team, creating green space in the process.
Time for another cup of Joe.
Posted by Wayne80 Jun 9, 2008 10:03:08 AM
flipper_dawson says:
To Bernie_Manning:
Sorry about the defective Form. If you contact the offices of DRF, I'm sure they will assist you with a new one for next weekend.
This would be better than running Steve Crist down. He leads this blogging section, and should be treated with respect at all times.
Posted by Flipper Dawson Jun 9, 2008 10:03:04 AM
lbrguy says:
Lone speed is a deadly angle. It trumps class and overall speed.
With Da'Tara being the only speed in the race besides BB he was the most likely saver bet in the event BB bombed. Did I bet this obvious angle? No. Lesson learned - again.
Got to love this game!
Posted by lbrguy Jun 9, 2008 9:57:41 AM
bob_m says:
to joesph,
thanks for the tip on the driving idea.. i will definitely look into it..
getting out was my only real beef with the day...
Posted by bob m. Jun 9, 2008 9:55:24 AM
bochalls says:
I see it like this; Big Brown wasn't fit and didn't like dirt in his face. Only one real work since the Derby? The 2f prance on Preakness morning doesn't count as a work. He missed time cuz of the hoof. I think he was rank as a result of taking dirt for the first time. Big carryover Weds...lets get back to normal!!!
Posted by bochalls Jun 9, 2008 9:52:28 AM
bochalls says:
I see it like this; Big Brown wasn't fit and didn't like dirt in his face. Only one real work since the Derby? The 2f prance on Preakness morning doesn't count as a work. He missed time cuz of the hoof. I think he was rank as a result of taking dirt for the first time. Big carryover Weds...lets get back to normal!!!
Posted by bochalls Jun 9, 2008 9:51:34 AM
john_l says:
Steve,
I did not want to say it before the race because I didn't want anything bad to happen to BB.
Now that it is over I want to say that I am truly happy that Dutrow has been humbled by the racing Gods. He is a classless cheater and I hope will never be in this position again to "guarantee" a triple crown and dismiss the competition.
Do you think it is coincidence that he kept BB in the barn of the other most ungracious trainer in the country?
Hey Ricky, try shutting up for a while.
Posted by John_L Jun 9, 2008 9:12:33 AM
fernandos_miss says:
A lightly raced horse will never win the Triple Crown. If one looks at the past Triple Crown winners they all had a foundation under them. All had tough races as 2 and 3 year olds. With this day and age of breeding for speed and not caring if one is breeding to an unsound stallion, we will never see a horse hold up to the rigors of the Triple Crown. Trainers don't want to run these fragile athletes nor work them hard for fear of getting hurt and rightly so. With the breed now becoming so fragile. Do away with the 2 year old sales and you will see how fast the breed starts getting back on track.
Posted by fernando's miss Jun 9, 2008 9:00:46 AM
richp says:
Guys KD did exactly what he did in the Derby. Rated the horse, kept him wide out of trouble and then tried to move with him comming out of the final turn. I'm sure that's what Dutrow wanted him to do. To avoid a Speactacular Bid kind of meltdown.
I give the winning horse a 90 Beyer don't agree with the Beyer boy's. The track was lihting fast. If BB ran the same race he did in the derby he win's by 10 in spite of the ride. Either the heat, the missed training or the 1 1/2 did him in.
It happens. It happened to to Zito's horse in the Tampa Bay Derby. He bounced back with a good second in the wood.
The truly great ones, managed by great trainers don't have those aboslutely horrible day's. But even the great ones run a sub par race now an then. Think Onion beating Secratariat at the Spa.
Big Brown is a nice horse who is the best of a bad bad bad crop of three year olds. Maybe they'll be a good late devloping 3 Y/O who will redeem this crop, but I haven't seen a good one yet.
Posted by RichP Jun 9, 2008 8:52:30 AM
stewart says:
Those who think that Kent D cost Big Brown the race are nuts!! While we'll never know for sure, it was likely a combination of factors, including the 3rd race in 5 weeks, the track surface, the heat and other stuff. I also heard that BB was aggitated in the stakes barn on the morning of the race. The truth is that Desormeaux had BB in a winning spot on the backstretch, but the horse just didn't want to go on with it when they hit the far turn, end of story. Hopefully, after a little rest, he will come back in the Travers like Holy Bull did and show off his considerable talents against the worst bunch of 3yos in 30 years.
As for Da'Tara, I will play against him even if Zito entered him back in a NW2X allowance at the Spa. I don't believe that Commendable won a race after the Belmont, either.
Clearly, the most impressive winner on the Belmont card was J Be K, who showed himself to be a top flight sprinter and serious threat for the Breeder's Cup Sprint. He was much more impressive to me than Benny the Bull, who was lucky to run down the stopping speed earlier on the card.
Posted by Stewart Jun 9, 2008 8:38:11 AM
andy_pieper says:
Tow questions bothering me from Belmont day. Why (on their biggest day of the year)can't the belmont website post scratches more than 20/30 minutes before the first post? Also, will Kent D. be called before the stewards for failing to ride his mount to the finish? I feel sorry for those who had Big Brown at the bottom of their supers.
Posted by Andy Pieper Jun 9, 2008 8:20:04 AM
race says:
They open the gate, BB want's to go, there's an opening on the inside, that any Jockey that is suppose to be a Hall of Famer would take---A Hall of Fame Jockey does not have his mind made up before the gate opens,a Hall of Fame rider lets the race develope. A Hall of Fame rider see's an opening on the inside AND TAKES THE INSIDE POSITION---NOT JERK THE HORSE'S HEAD, NOT STRANGLE THE HORSE, NOT FIGHT A HORSE WITH NATURAL SPEED---Good Jockey's have the guts to take the inside postion when it opens. That doesn't mean that Big Brown wins the race, but at least we would have had a Horse Race. The connections said he would run after the Belmont if he won, so there is even more reason for him to run now----with a Jockey that doesn't make up his mind before the gates open---The Shoe would have taken the inside postion, so would have Hartack, Cordero, Velesquez,---r
Posted by race Jun 9, 2008 7:49:21 AM
chipmunk_kent says:
Some of the comments here are comical. If kent had 'gunned' BB to the lead and dueled Da Tara and lost, people would have been screaming from Mt Everest that Kent was an idiot for getting in a duel with a no-hope 35-1 shot.
If you want to say Smarty Jones or Real Quiet lost by 'rider error' ok, i can live with that...but to even insinuate that a horse who didn't even finish was compromised by jock error is Ludacris.
Posted by chipmunk kent Jun 9, 2008 7:38:11 AM
mlnj says:
Mr. Monaco:
The NYRA is non-profit too. In fact they're so non-profit, they're bankrupt.
Posted by ml/nj Jun 9, 2008 7:09:31 AM
pollo says:
Affirmed raced 9 times as a 2 year old, Secretariat 8 times. They were hardened veterans, ready for the immense challenge of the Triple Crown. The Belmont was Big Brown's 6th lifetime start. He did not have the proven experience needed to win the Triple Crown.
Posted by pollo Jun 9, 2008 2:45:38 AM
spectacularbid says:
to mike_d
do you really think big brown was gunned from the gate? watch his florida derby. and you think kent did a good job the first quarter mile of the race? if you can't see how bad the ride is yourself just go read the chart notes. if angel cordero jr had been on big brown he would have won by the length of the stretch. the other horses in the race are pathetic. to not lead that bunch is almost criminal.
Posted by spectacularbid Jun 9, 2008 1:20:50 AM
joesph_r_monaco says:
To Bob M from N.J.If you are willing to leave from NJ at 830am then drive to Belmont and park in the BLUE FIELD off plainfield ave, by going through the towm of floral park. Make a dry run the next time you go to Belmont and if you are willing to leave directly after the Belmont stakes and walk to your car in the blue field you can be over the GW bridge in 30to40 minutes, on sat I got into my car at 647 and was in FT LEE NJ at 722pm. I do this every Belmont Stakes day.
To George Quinn the reason Keeneland is able to have all the goodies you enjoy is 1 they are non profit, race for 6 weeks only and make a ton of money from the sales.....joe
Posted by joesph r monaco Jun 9, 2008 1:00:29 AM
dud_dew says:
I'll stick with the crowd that sees enough ordinary puzzle pieces to resist the call of "something horrible happened."
And I'll add my support that there's more to the Winstrol piece than we're being told, Larry Bramlage's predictable reply notwithstanding.
And published reports say Kent was given no specific instructions about strategy.
Nice to hear critiques of ride from folks who've never been on a horse, let alone a racing thoroughbred in a hectic and pressure-packed TC-on-the-line Belmont. There was a helluva lot goin' on as they broke and assayed the first quarter-mile.
Thanks for the apt observations about BB's pre-race demeanor, and his less-than-impressive work according to the trainer- witness. More pieces to buttress the notion there was nothing utterly mysterious about this outcome, any more than there was about War Pass's Tampa one. Young, lightly-raced, questionably medicated and trained horses with scant evidence of their true quality are not, by rational process, great mysteries when they throw a clunker in an otherwise very nice, but oh so shallow, body of work.
Posted by dud dew Jun 9, 2008 12:36:37 AM
jim_goodman says:
Thanks to Mr. Quinn for the kind comments about Keeneland. I'm on the staff there and it's very nice to be appreciated. We had 5000 patrons or so, and when Big Brown lost it was similar to someone letting air out of a balloon as the crowd realized no TC again...but I certainly heard no boos among our crowd, as reportedly happened at Belmont.
Posted by Jim Goodman Jun 8, 2008 11:18:39 PM
About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
