Crist Blog | July 17, 2008
Much Faster
When Del Mar officials said earlier this week that their newly-tweaked Polytrack would probably produce faster times this year, they weren't kidding: Wednesday's five opening-day main-track races established three track records -- by two maidens and a $10k claimer -- and went an average of 38 Beyer points faster than the ones on last year's very similar opening-day lineup
*The first, third and fifth races Wednesday established new track records for the 1-mile, 6-furlong and 5 1/2-furlong distances;
*The average raw Beyer Speed Figure for the five Polytrack races was 57 in 2007 and 95 in 2008;
*The average raw time for the two six-furlong races on both cards was 1:13.37 in 2007 and 1:10.57 in 2008;
*I'm only guessing at a variant of -20 for Wednesday's card, but that would be a 38-point difference from last year's +18 -- matching the 38-point difference in raw times and giving both cards nearly identical average BSF's of 75 for the five Poly races. [Update: Chart has been revised to reflect the official BSF variant for the day of -19.]
Faster did not necessarily mean easier: Nobody picked six Wednesday, and there's a $153k carryover into Thursday's Day Two card.
Posted by Steven Crist Jul 17, 2008 2:17:47 AM | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
bill says:
Clown show,
I actually agree with much of what you have to say. I truly don't think that anyone wants to dq a horse who shifts a small amount of ground, particularly if the intent of the rider is to try and maintain a somewhat straight course. On the otherhand, when a rider intentially makes a decision to move horses out of the way so that he can have a hole, it is quite naive to defend this action. No one would bet on race if every rider could intentially "make room" whenever they want. You then could start betting "last horse standing." So be careful when you think that we should just let the results stand, that is, that the bull is correct.
Part of the allure of horse betting is that it is some what formful. That is, you can read the form and have an idea before hand how the race will be ran. If you allow the bull to run rampant in the china shop, then there truly will be no "form" in how races are run, and I would guess that racing would cease to exist in a short time.
Just to shed a little light on myself - the first horse I ever owned was dq'ed the first time he won (he deserved to be, even though he won easily).
I bet on many many races a week (around 500) and am generally taken down at least twice a week, and as every gambler thinks, I'm not put up as often as I'm taken down. But this great game would fail to be a great game if we allowed every rider to be a bull. Just as with football, basketball, or whatever popular sport, the only reason they exist is because of rules. Horse racing is no different, the only thing I expect (along with most riders) is consistency, something that some stewards seem to lack (New York truly is bad).
Posted by bill Jul 20, 2008 11:05:39 AM
chisox says:
Please, no more harness posts. It's bad enough my DRF did not have a couple of thoroughbred tracks that I was interested in today but it had Meadowlands entries.
Posted by chisox Jul 19, 2008 1:27:56 PM
clown_show says:
You can't steal the bettors money. Do you know how hard successful handicappers work on doping out these races? Some people dedicate their entire lives to betting on races. Brain busting stuff till the wee hours of the morning and for what? To have some politically appointed guy who doesn't really know the game take your money away because he has the napoleon complex and wants to show how important he is in this game?
There's no serious handicapper on this planet that won't be able to mentally withstand a DQ that is cut and dried. Your horse causes some major incident where its clearly his fault everyone understands that it has to come down, its a situation that leaves the judges no wiggle room, its something that a blind man can see. But, when you cut and slice this stuff into little pieces and really nitpick , its horrible stuff. Lets face it, if you really wanted to, as an NFL official, you could call a penalty on every single play. You could find SOMETHING that you can penalize if your life depended on it. You can take your borderline case to the league offices and say "See, there is the holding". and the fans and media and everyone else concerned will say,. "i guess you are right, his hand might have been on the jersey"
But, that breaks the spirit of competition and causes the sane person to ask, "what in sam hill is going on here". Are we saying that horses have to run in a straight line like they are being tested for a DWI? That's not going to happen. Horses will shift ground on occasion, even if its an inch to either side. When you have a little man or woman sitting on the back of a thousand pound racehorse running at speeds in excess of 35 mph , you can't expect that horse to stay in an EXACT straight path, its just not possible.
Well, to that you will say, "so, if a horse moves over an inch and costs another horse the race, or costs another horse a board position, should we just leave the result alone even though that one inch compromised the other horse?" My answer is yes. Its just tough racing luck for the horse in behind because the lead horse has the leeway to move an inch or two, or even a foot to either side just in the normal course of racing. He's ALLOWED to not have to maintain an exact straight line because that's part of horse racing. If you can't move an inch to either side we may as well just break horses from the gate individually and time them and after each horse hits the line we pay off the fastest runner.
Horses drift a little bit in the stretch all the time.....they are tired at that point, they are straining for every inch and every stride. Watch a few headons and you'll see horses weaving in the lane like drunken sailors, very few of them maintain an EXACT straight line which means that NOT maintaining an exact straight line is part of the game.
the standard is way too high and impossible to live up to.
If you went out to dinner with one of the stewards and he asked you this question, how would you answer it. He asks. "i have a dilemma and i need your input. I can disqualify every runner who breathes on another runner with a zero tolerance policy, a policy that maintains that every horse needs to maintain an EXACT straight line or else. OR i can 'let them play' and pay off the best horse and only in really serious cases take a runner down. When i say serious cases, i mean that i'd probably only be taking down one runner a month, if that. I'm going to let the results be won on the racetrack and not won in the booth for the most part"
What would you say? if you are a serious bettor who has a financial stake on at least a few races per day, you'd say "lets have the results decided on the track"
Is there anyone here who wants the results decided in the booth? doesn't that break the spirit of competition? Why even HAVE competition if we are going to punish the bull while walking thru the china shop?
Posted by clown_show Jul 19, 2008 6:44:06 AM
neddy53 says:
Chisox,
The stewards are punishing the betting public everyday with their poor decisions. That is the whole point of my argument.
Posted by neddy53 Jul 19, 2008 5:47:54 AM
flipper_dawson says:
Sat. July 19/08 at Woodbine.
Late Pick 3 on races 8,9, and 10.
Race 8 (turf) Climb up on JUST RUSHING at 6-1 ML, with top jockey Jimmy Mac. aboard.Trainer and jockey have combined before for nice wins.
Race 9 (turf) A nice large field for high payoff if you lean toward #7 NOTTI BISCOTTI at 15-1. A first time starter, he goes for trainer Terry Jordan, who has the best win % on the grounds. Not the most wins, but the best win %. There's a difference.
He is related to FREE VACATION who won on one Sunday, when I was staying at a motel near WO, on my way to Fredericton. I noticed the horse in the paper, and drove to WO, and played her $50 to win. Then left to return to motel, and wife.Attfield trained. Price was over $30.00. So, FREE VACATION gave me a free vacation.
That's why I like NOTTI. Good blood lines.
Race 10-- INDIAN JOY could take the night cap. Has been training for top trainer CASSE on lawn, with this race being eye-balled.Will be less than 8-1 ML, but not by much.More activity will be taken on this race on SAT. so I will work a super in here on Sat. (check around noon.)Husbands finds his way home to Mark Casse, and this duo never lays down--always trying.
WARNING!! If Race 9 comes off the turf, no bets on Pick 3. We'll try to do some damage in Race 10 on POLY.
Posted by Flipper Dawson Jul 19, 2008 12:23:41 AM
zarpo says:
Flip,
Sorry to hear about your mom. I will not see you in next little while at the OTB. Saving up for a trip to the Spa. I`ll see ya when I see ya.
Good luck.
Posted by zarpo Jul 19, 2008 12:15:30 AM
yuwipi says:
Flipper D - Hang in there.
Did anyone see the shape of the Belmont turf course today? It looked like a chewed up high school football field after a long season. I think they're getting out of Denver just in time.
Posted by yuwipi Jul 18, 2008 9:39:52 PM
larry_thiel says:
I love the idea of a Breeders Cup race at a mile and a half. I can't wait to see it.
Posted by Larry Thiel Jul 18, 2008 8:47:12 PM
gofor_broke says:
One aspect of the CCA Oaks is that the 2nd dam of Music Note is It's In The Air, a top class filly.
The 2nd dam of Acoma is Althea, also a top class filly.
But the big race this weekend is the Meadowlands Pace, as Somebeachsomewhere tries to become the star of the sport of harness racing for this summer and fall.
Posted by gofor broke Jul 18, 2008 6:25:24 PM
virgin_queen says:
flipper_dawson
hope your mothers health improves.enjoy your comments on woodbine. think i need 2 learn more about your secret play.
Posted by Virgin Queen Jul 18, 2008 4:21:03 PM
jeff_tatus says:
I have to agree with Mr. Roy Neyer... the Moses/Red Sea fake surface joke made me bust out laughing... and did when I read it again.
My problem is that I can't yet trust Delmar just because they've figured out how to keep moisture in the track for the first few days. The problem (if we go back to last year's concensus) was that the track was moist in the AM from the ocean fog settling in. By the afternoon, the moisture evaporated and so did the pace of a race. Good handicappers just stayed away from an untenable situation of not having a bias of any consistency to use as a baseline. Waiting every day for some type of consistency proved to be a waste of time and most gave up. The times of the races on Wednesday were more like Hollywood or Santa Anita and in fairness to the Del Mar track super, I have to say that there is close to a 300% improvement in the final times (1 second equals 100%).
I don't agree that PETA has much to do with the surface, as I feel that Del Mar has enough humility to understand that they were guilty of "rushing to a decision" when it came to their selection of choosing which "Poly" to use. I personally believe that the same Australian consultant (who salvaged Santa Anita's meet) may have provided the Del Mar officials with some insight while he was in the U.S. and that the trainers also provided the necessary motivation for the Del Mar track super. to seriously analyse the situation. While I have yet to read a Form for Del Mar or play a race, I haven't yet written off the entire meet as easily as I did last year; which was clearly a "Total Loss" from a handicapper's perspective.
Remember, Saratoga is still the best and Del Mar guaranteed it until they prove different.
Sorry Ray, but I had to post your opening gambit again as it truly made me laugh MAO.....
Before everyone melts down. Think about it...these are 60 day old track records from the last meet on the slowest fake surface since Moses crossed the Red Sea.
Posted by Jeff Tatus Jul 18, 2008 2:35:14 PM
prozac_jack says:
Dear Fellow Bloggers,Please stop this relentless BASHING of they highly intelligent crew at T.V.G.These are some of the BEST handicrappers ever assembled on one stage.I have followed their selections religiously over the years, and I can truthfully say, if it wasn't for them I wouldn't be in the home I'm in today.I used to live in MANSION...
Since I get T.V.G. I've canceled ALL of my comedy channels and that alone saves me money.Got to go now I forgot to take the rest of my PROZAC.....
Posted by Prozac Jack Jul 18, 2008 2:12:32 PM
chisox says:
Neddy,
I never said the stewards were not an embarrassment. At times they certainly are. My point was that letting results stand and just reprimanding the jockey is not the solution.In your scenario the stewards would be wrong to take no action. I notice you did not answer my question in my hypothetical situation.
Posted by chisox Jul 18, 2008 1:35:24 PM
rocenite says:
Flipper
Rumour has it that this blog is grooming me to guest with Mr. Asmussen, and we hope to tell you how we win races.
Sign me up!!!!
I enjoy reading your post and how you play the ponies.I also like how you play your trainer angles,key races,jockeys,etc you give valuable insight and you also show your wagering angle.Good stuff.
My OTB does not offer Woodbine or i would string along with you on some of your plays.
Do not know if you play evangeline or not but there is a Steve Asmussen horse entry in the sixth race a maiden claimer with a ML of 30-1 (Royaleka).I have not looked at the PP.
I know some bombs come in at this track so it might be worth a look.
I am heading out to the otb tomorrow so I will be checking back in on the blogs here.
Also Flipper good luck with your Mom I know that must be tough.Also you still fishing up there??I used to go to lakeside, ohio when i was kid every summer and we would always take a boat out and head to the canadien waters and do some fishing.
Last time i went was six years ago with my kids.My son was catching fish two at a time,just incredible fishing there.
Roc
Posted by RocEnite Jul 18, 2008 10:36:14 AM
jcp says:
See, it only took everybody one day to figure DelMar out, all-chalk P6 already....
Posted by jcp Jul 18, 2008 8:27:34 AM
neddy53 says:
chisox,
Horse A and horse B were battling down the stretch. Horse A clearly fouls Horse B and wins by a nose. The inquiry sign goes up the stewards review the race and the result stands no change to the order of finish!! Anyone who thinks the stewards are not an embarrassment must be incredibly naive.
Posted by neddy53 Jul 18, 2008 7:40:25 AM
buffalo_joe says:
I must say in defense, of the other on air people(whose names escape me at this time) appeared to try and distance themselves from the situation and did not look comfortable with the whole thing.
Posted by buffalo joe Jul 18, 2008 3:29:10 AM
buffalo_joe says:
Tim,
Try sending an email to tgv, if they don't agree with you, no response!! Like when I emailed them on the deplorable...goading [of] a fan from the east coast, who only travels by train, into putting up about $800.00 for a pick 6 ticket for the on-air boys. Not only did he get a free ride, but when that one failed early, he got this gentleman to come up with another $500....
This was absolutly shameless. I've seen touts at the track who were up aganist it, not knowing where their next meal was coming from, and not be that BOLD.
What was the reply?...None at all not even a mention on air of the impropriety, or a return email acknowledging my concern.
Thats my rant for today, as I also can not wager on DelMar, But don't place a Halo aroud Frank S's head I'll give my thoughts on what I feel he has tried to do to racing including the demise of Gulfstream Park.
Also, Flipper I am very sad to hear about mother, when you get to be our age it is always on your mind, my prayers are with you.
Posted by buffalo joe Jul 18, 2008 3:18:46 AM
chisox says:
Bill,
Great post on the Codeword race. You are right on the money. Also, I find the "don't punish the bettors" argument incredibly naive. These [people] advocate keeping a horse up but reprimanding the jockey if there is a foul committed. If horse A and horse B are battling down the stretch and horse A wins by a nose but clearly interfered with horse B wouldn't the people who bet horse B be getting punished if they let the results stand but just reprimanded the jockey?.
Posted by chisox Jul 18, 2008 12:37:06 AM
kyl_syndicate says:
one more comment...
NYRA use to provide free video replays on their site, but ever since the state took over nyc otb, the link is no longer available. It keeps saying that they are working on, but any ideas as to whether anyone is really paying attention to this? What exactly is the issue here and how is it even related to nyc otb?
Posted by KYL Syndicate Jul 17, 2008 11:24:20 PM
arcstats says:
Can I offer some advise for all the TVG bashers out there? Dick Vitale and John Madden taught me a long time ago just how valuable the MUTE button is on your TV remote. So do yourself a favor - mute the damm channel until it's race time. I'm certainly not going to buy the arguement that the folks who post on this blog actually listen to that nonsense hoping to to gleem some useful nugget of handicapping information. If so, you need to find a slot machine. So turn the sound off and focus your anger at some other issue that stinks in this game - you have plenty of choices.
Posted by Arcstats Jul 17, 2008 11:22:32 PM
kyl_syndicate says:
A couple of comments...
Gravitational...A few of the big players at one of the teletheathres including myself bet out on Gravitational including exactas with Codeword that was paying around 80 dollars on Wednesday Belmont Race 5 and we were surprised they left Codeword up. One of the charts even made the comment..Codeword...appearing to interfere with Cosmic...BUT I will say this, although I was ticked off as we wagered heavily in the race, Cosmic had absolutely no run and if he had any there would likely have been a dq. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, Gravitational had a perfect trip and had absolutely no excuses of losing this race. What frustrates me more is Garcia choking the horse for over 6 furloughs in a european style grass race and even with the rail trip, he still failed. He should have just let the horse bound for the lead especially when he broke on top. And on top of that he loses to a horse that doesn't like to win. Except for the choke hold, he had a perfect trip and failed. Asking to be put up when he wasn't the best horse, I can't get ticked at the stewards for.
Reason not to bet harness...
Luckily I stopped betting harness but imagine if you hit the triple at Hawthorne Race 3 tonight. 10 horse field with a 6/5 and a even money shot both off the board. The winner was 85-1, second was 35-1 and third was 11-1. Winner paid 172 and exacta came back 1825 which was proper. But the triple, feel bad if you hit it paid a measley 3769.80 If you bet 20 win, you would have gotten back close to a 1 dollar triple hit. But if you played a 1 triple of 9/1/all that cost you 8, you get back 1800 whereas a 8 exacta gets you back 7300.
usually you look at payouts and exacta and triples look out of sort and you wonder...but this time the exacta looks legit and the triple looks like a joke...
till saratoga as belmont next two days lacks anything interesting...
Posted by KYL Syndicate Jul 17, 2008 10:41:17 PM
jel says:
I haven't bet Polytrack In two years and I'm not missing a thing.
It's good to see others are not betting.
Cal.had very poor dirt tracks,all they had to do was upgrade them to Quality Dirt Tracks.
Posted by Jel Jul 17, 2008 10:24:32 PM
unitas says:
I'm enlightened to read in prior posts that I am not the only soul who thinks TVG is the worst advertising for thoroughbred racing and wagering. They provide nothing for the horseplayer, no stats, no percentages, and the shills that are employed there on air spew the same old rhetoric day in and day out. They have to be the WORST "handicappers" around, who give you no real insight on any of their picks. Todd Schrupp cannot go more than 15 seconds without uttering "TVG", and has more excuses for why his selection runs poorly than anyone I have ever known. And if for some reason you were interested in what was being discussed, you probably can't hear what was said due to the audio problems they have been experiencing there for the last three years! I have been told numerous times that they are working on the problem, and it still hasn't been corrected since 2005. Absolutley incredible
Posted by Unitas Jul 17, 2008 9:15:10 PM
bill says:
I think that many posters in this blog along with the belmont stewards need to take a refresher on what warrants a dq. Just because the "horse was best" doesn't mean you leave him up. In fact, gravitational was best in that race if codeword hadn't made a hole for himself. Every day, many horses get buried behind horses on turf races, and many of these were probably the best - if their rider was an idiot and bulled his way through (maybe dropping several horses).
Codeword was not the winner of the race if he would not of fouled other horses - it doesn't matter if the horses he fouled weren't going to beat him. That kind of logic is really stupid and dangerous as it rewards dangerous riding tactics.
For what it is worth - I had no money on the race...
Posted by bill Jul 17, 2008 9:06:55 PM
flipper_dawson says:
Woodbine Play for Friday July 18/08
Go to Race 9 and we'll focus on 2 horses exiting a key race. Eolos with Landry up is 10-1, and should be played in an exactor with #15, Torchy Kinshasa. I am fond of this play with Eolos in bold type in DRF Quick Sheets.About 6 months ago, I did the same play with different horses, and had a $5.00 exactor.
I left the OTB to go home, and checked my computer to see that my bold type key won, paying $15.70, combining with my second horse to produce an exactor of $679.00 for 2 bucks.
I also had the 2nd horse at $20.00 to place, and it paid $39.70 for 2 dollars.
I copied the tickets and they are here in my office showing a payout of $2094.50.(for 25 dollars.)
So, you have the same angle in race 9. It may come off the turf. If so, no bets at all.
Also the 15 might not draw in.
-------------------------------
If this happens, play in Race 8, the Asmussen horse who is 5-1.
US bets--Win only.
Canada bets--Take Sunny Morning on top with 20 cent supers in Quick-Pick mode.
Remember to bet 5 horses either in leg 2,3 ,or 4.
Each group of 5 costs one dollar.
------------------------------
Tomorrow, I make the long trek to the detention barn to see a family member who is not cleaning up her feed tub. I'm not trying to be smart, but yes, my Mom is failing badly in a Nursing Home, and I have papers to sign at 1.00 PM.
She is 90 years old, but going downhill very fast, and although I am feeling chipper, I will be different going up to see her.
MOM D. RALLIED FROM FAR BACK,ENGAGED THE FAVORITE AT THE 16th POLE, WAS ALL OUT BUT FAILED TO LAST IN THE FINAL STRIDES.
Humans die, horses break down, and it always is hard to understand why.
Posted by Flipper Dawson Jul 17, 2008 8:23:38 PM
aparagon4u says:
Steve,
Do you think the decline in handle at Del Mar on opening day is a result of people betting less on the polytrack (ala Keeneland), a bad economy or the lack of availability by most ADW's?
Do you think the end is near for TVG? First Churchill pulled its tracks, then NYRA ended their exclusive deals, next year the exclusive deal with Del Mar expires and the following year Hollywood may close. That leaves Keeneland as the only "exclusive track" worth mentioning and with their decline in handle they may re-evaluate their current contract with TVG.
Lenny
Posted by aparagon4u Jul 17, 2008 8:21:58 PM
tim says:
Polytrack seems better, and that's a relief. Faster times add excitement, they don't take it away, and you can have both safety and speed on a synthetic. The track record talk is a bit silly, but then I never understood why all the track records before Poly or Cushion Track HAD to be thrown out. After all the only time there was a marked, blatant difference in times on dirt vs. a synthetic was last year at Del Mar. It makes a difference in your handicapping, but at least now the times are a reasonable facsimile on synths.
As for TVG, their continued arrogance is astonishing. The more I hear how TVG is "America's horse racing network" or how they have exclusives or about their "mystery legs" in any exotic wager---like anyone would be stupid enough to take their collective handicapping skills seriously---the more sickening it becomes. I am dying for the day when the California horsemen finally stands up and denies TVG access to all California signals until they change the way they do business. TVG is the enemy, and it's time the sport took more of a united stand against them to turn the idea of a racing network into one that works for the bettor, as well as for the better.
(For the record, Magna/HRTV is no saint, either, but they're not close to being as obstructionist and dictatorial as TVG is.
Posted by Tim Jul 17, 2008 8:21:14 PM
nemo says:
Marc@DRF
Re: Saratoga Player's Guide.
The on-line version is showing last year's edition. When will 2008 be available? Thanks.
Posted by Nemo Jul 17, 2008 8:18:29 PM
flipper_dawson says:
RocEnite, take heart.
Even though Steve C. and Mr. Beyer were not guesting on TVG, all is not lost.
Rumour has it that this blog is grooming me to guest with Mr. Asmussen, and we hope to tell you how we win races.
I am now doing that for Woodbine. I have not been given a pay cheque, but have been assured it is in the mail.
Posted by Flipper Dawson Jul 17, 2008 7:41:18 PM
tim says:
Arcstat- Great post! So true. I wish I had your willpower. Next week at this time I will be scrambling around trying to find an ATM machine which will give me a credit card advance...
Unlike baseball or football, the gamblers 100% support the sport. Those that dont agree are in denial and need help.
I still want to know why Boule D Or stopped so quickly last weekend at Hollywood, after being allowed to walk on the lead by himself the entire race.
Posted by Tim Jul 17, 2008 7:08:35 PM
yuwipi says:
Andyscoggin/Marc
Just opened Friday's Form and saw that the paper is not on sale until the 21st - Monday. Sorry. I'll be forced to burn the midnight oil to get through it by meet opening on the 23rd. Combine that with the trainer stats book and we're all in for a lot of work (fun).
Posted by yuwipi Jul 17, 2008 6:29:43 PM
yuwipi says:
andyscoggin:
You beat me to it. I love that Spa preview paper. Must have my NYSB winning Beyers from the last meet! I've hunted through most newsstands in northern NJ and been unable to find it though.
Marc at DRF:
Would you be able to let us know if the Meadowlands is selling it? I'd really prefer the print paper rather than the PDF download.
I almost never wager on Del Mar, but I know some Cal players who were really bummed last year with the inaugural poly meet. Looking at Steve's chart it is amazing to me that not one horse was able to run 6F faster than 1:10.1 during a seven week California meet. Wonder if this turn of events will have an effect on California trainers shipping East ala Baffert last year.
Posted by yuwipi Jul 17, 2008 6:15:55 PM
dunque says:
samg - I appreciate your viewpoint. But if you are concerned about betting on tracks that are tinkered with, Saratoga was not a place to look to for comfort, at least last year.
That thing was squeezed down to a speedway on Whitney day, most prominently, but there were other days where it seemed like track maintenance played a huge factor in final outcomes.
I am a much bigger fan of Saratoga then Del Mar. My point was that there are factors an independent handicapper can research and build on that give them an edge over other players.
In fact, the polytrack issue has heightened the importance and benefits of that type of independent research.
Good luck at Saratoga! I can't wait for next Wednesday myself.
Posted by Dunque Jul 17, 2008 5:11:34 PM
larry_thiel says:
I had gravitational too.
But I wasn't for moving him up to first.
He clearly wasn't the best horse.
Posted by Larry Thiel Jul 17, 2008 3:48:34 PM
samg says:
Dunque,I`m sorry to complain but the reason I chose this game as opposed to say black jack or craps is that it can be beat.The number of players who actually do beat it shrinks as the takeout goes up but in theory at least it can still be done.So I feel like less of a sucker than throwing my money away at the casino that is just 4 blocks from my front door,which I haven`t visited in about 10 years.To me betting on a track that`s being tinkered with before seeing how those changes will effect the races is for suckers,I won`t do it.Now if Del Mar was the only track on earth I might take the time to figure it out but with Saratoga starting next week no thank you.Besides,I`d have to reopen my You Bet account and,ugh,that`s not going to happen.For you brave souls who choose to try to figure it out I wish you luck,for me the meet has lost it`s once great appeal.
Posted by SamG Jul 17, 2008 3:39:01 PM
rocenite says:
Poly-crap and Tvg
How after one day people say the track is much fairer than last year.I need a bigger sample before I can say the track is fair.
It was just one day and everyone is buying the hype.
TVG exclusive= #@#***^%**##what a bunch of crap.Its bad enough with all the blowhards and the non-education they give horse-players. Truly a terrible voice for people who love and bet the horses.
Just another self-serving company with no regard for the people who make the game go...
I cancelled my tvg satellite package last year.Not once did i see someone like a steven davidowitz,or a andrew beyer,or steven yes you crist,or someone who plays the horses on a level where their very lives and well-being depend on it.
Thankgod for many of the great books these handicappers have written where I can glean some knowledge and apply what i learn to my wagering...
A channel devoted to horse racing and horse race betting with no handicapping insight, none of the top handicappers in the game -- sorry, Simon Bray and his pick-6 plays that he does not bet is not good enough for me.
I know the product they put out is terrible and I have to sign up with these people to place a wager on Del Mar. No I don't think so. I guess tvg figured out the product they put on the air sucks and this is the only way they can get new account holders.
I am done with wagering on the internet when it comes to horse racing. I will go to the otb and play when i can. I do not need action just to have action. When i want to play the ponies I want to make money. TVG just seems to cater to the degenrate gambler. Send it in both fist,pic-6,pic-4, a 30 second interview with some trainer or joc that gets the standard horse has been working well in the A.M. so we gave it a shot. Geez thanks for the info really learned a lot there.
How about breaking down some trainer stats,like which trainers are gearing for what meet, what about breaking down workouts with trainer intent in mind. Why does a trainer use a certain jockey. How about looking at the drug issues. How about some track bias reports? How about more pedigree and 2-year old in trainning reports?instead of hearing about the late pick-4 at los al which is about 1am on the east coast. How about some wagering strategies? I could go on and on but tvg insults the serious horse player with thier daily dumbing down of the sport.
Posted by RocEnite Jul 17, 2008 2:28:40 PM
marc_at_drf says:
Andy asked:
"1) Is this new Saratoga Trainer guide for $19.95 taking the place of the Saratoga paper preview that has come out every year around now? 2) Will the DRF be offering the SAR race meet discount for online PP's as in the past?"
We've reached the point in the summer where there is way too much going on on the site. This page should help:
http://www.drf.com/sar/2008/sar_info.html
Also, yeah, the print version of the Saratoga Players Guide is available on newsstands plus there's an online version of it for our DRF Plus customers.
Posted by Marc At DRF Jul 17, 2008 2:03:33 PM
scott says:
I don't understand the criticism. Last year's Del Mar version of Polytrack was garbage by all acounts, producing slow times for the first season after its installation.
So, they "fix" it. And on Day One, times are closer to what they would be on a conventional dirt track. Where last year allowance sprinters were running 1:13's, this year 10K claimers are running 1:10's. OF COURSE track records are being set.
As for this track behaving like "typical" Poly, I disagree. Last year at Dmr the rail was a death sentence. Yesterday two horses rode the rail to win (5th & 7th) and another set fast fractions and still held on to win (9th). After one day, it looks fair.
Posted by Scott Jul 17, 2008 1:46:03 PM
dave_ says:
To me, last year at Del Mar was a total joke. But yesterday, the fractions of the races were reasonable, not like last year when 6F sprints were going 23 and change, 48 and change, LOL. Last year jockeys avoided the lead like the plague, making dirt races almost impossible to handicap, because pure speed horses were either being wrangled back or their speed turned out to be a disadvantage. I was actually encouraged by watching yesterday's dirt races, though I only wagered on the Oceanside races.
Posted by Dave Jul 17, 2008 1:36:36 PM
arcstats says:
Aww, look at it this way boys - Pro Football starts seven weeks from tonite. With the exception of several recreational plays in Vegas and a few on opening day at Ellis Park, I've now refrained from serious betting on this "sport" for over 3 months. For the first time in 30 years, I will not go to Saratoga, nor make any wagers there this season.
Removing myself from the betting action has been much eaiser than I thought. I still read the Form online everyday, but the combinations of drugs, plastic tracks, stewards, crooked trainers, bad management, and a hundred other issues have provided all the justification I need to stay away.
This blog also provides support similar to an AA meeting for a drunk. The majority of postings just ooze with pain from this game. Thanks for sharing.
Hopefully changes will come that will bring people like me back to the competition. Until then, keep looking for gameday bad weather and bet the under.
Posted by Arcstats Jul 17, 2008 1:26:01 PM
prozac_jack says:
Amen to horserun: Please note however, the rule of thumb that has prevailed at Del-Mar for the PAST 40 years,is this, "if a horse hasn't proven he likes Del-Mar tread LIGHTLY" A lot of horses do not like this track, weather it's poly or broken glass they simply won't run.It's 10 times less predictable than the switch from Santa Anita to Hollywood.I've spent many wonderful summers at Del Mar.For 25 years all you had to do was get to the lead, now they mess with success.The Nit-wits that run racetracks ALL of them should be taken out and horse whipped.You talk about a group of LOSERS,look no further than racetrack management..........
Posted by Prozac Jack Jul 17, 2008 1:24:04 PM
roy_neyer says:
Before everyone melts down. Think about it...these are 60 day old track records from the last meet on the slowest fake surface since Moses crossed the Red Sea. Now they apparently figured how to soup it up to about normal-like times. Of course the first claimer and maiden on the surface will be setting track records. ...then a decent allowance horse and then a stakes horse. Get used to daily setting track records against this new "no history" surface.
That said, I will not (again this year) be playing Del Mar. As a California resident we are trying to lead the way in destroying racing--though Mssr. Crist and Beyer have strong arguements for New York and Maryland , respectively.
When Sacramento politicians (led by their friends in PETA), start dictating track surfaces we knew we were in trouble. Millions later there is no proof the surfaces are any safer, while driving fans away from these toxic surfaces. We will now have safer racing surfaces and no racing product---just what PETA wanted all along...
Posted by Roy Neyer Jul 17, 2008 1:06:37 PM
dunque says:
Re: Del Mar track records. Or, more properly, "track records."
Correct me if I'm wrong but these are only records because the comparison is to last year's slow surface. I would expect we will see track records at every distance on the poly for a while here. That's the nature of the new surface, then changed new surface, dynamic.
From what I've read the surface is essentially during racing what it was only during training hours last year. And the trainers loved the training hours track. Isn't that better?
Yes, the possibility for confusion exists but let's not forget we're in a free market situation at the track where knowledge is king.
So quit complaining and spend some time figuring it out.
Posted by Dunque Jul 17, 2008 12:37:03 PM
flipper_dawson says:
Today's Hot Horse At Woodbine
We go to race 8, where GRAY MIRAGE is sitting at 6-1 in the Morning Line. Jockey Stein is up for Trainer Paul Buttigieg. They have combined to push some longshots through in the last 10 days.
Stein is an under-rated boy, who pops the longies from time to time.
Saddle cloth is #10.
US bets--play to Win and Place
Canada bets--take this animal and play on top only of 20 cent supers in the Quick Pick format.
To get the bets through, you will have to play 5 at a time.
A sample ticket will look like this:10-QP-QP-QP,QP,QP,QP,QP.
Next ticket will have 5 choices to run 2nd, the same for next bet where you will have 5 for show.
Posted by Flipper Dawson Jul 17, 2008 12:37:00 PM
bjchapin says:
Steve,
What are your thoughts on why some polytracks seem to play better than others? Here in Chicago, AP's poly has shockingly fair this season, compared to what I see on tv at other venues and read on the blogs. Are some track supers better than others with it, is it weather, or what is it?
Posted by bjchapin Jul 17, 2008 12:02:40 PM
rob says:
TVG has been the worst thing for horse racing imaginable. I have long since invested the $100 a month for RTN but occasionally tune in for Del Mar/Hollywood. Every other word out of Todd Schrupps mouth is "exclusive" and half the time he's lying about that as Im watching races over RTN that he says can only be on TVG. How did they get such a good deal? Since they were only able to have account holders in about 10 states. Racing will never survive with all this exclusivity, people wont be told where to bet and if I do choose to bet a TVG track I do it offshore and that helps nobody. Why would I open a TVG account (I cant anyway) and bet 50k to get a beach towel and a TVG mug when for that handle I can get $3,500 cash back and all the extra money on the payouts that didnt hit the pool. They really do believe all horseplayers are morons and pretty soon all the morons will be filling the slot machines and forgetting about going through the hassle of actually trying to place a bet. I would need to hire an assistant just to figure out what tracks I could bet where. So outside of Supers,Pick 3's, 4's and the rare Pick 6 plays, the offshores are always open and they let you bet anywhere you want. TVG can blame Magna all it wants but it was them who went out and tied up tracks into exlusive deals long before Magna/Churchill tried to save their asses by doing the same thing. TVG put TRN out of business that later became RTN because they locked up Kentucky/NYRA/Fla and Cali. TVG's exclusive deal with the CHBA ends this year and then DelMar/Hollywood will be on RTN next year. Then TVG can show Los Al and Ruidoso and close their doors and get exactly what they deserved fior their failed divide and conquer strategy. Can you believe they give all that attention to Los Al that has only one pool a night that you can bet anything into?
Posted by Rob Jul 17, 2008 11:35:40 AM
andyscoggin says:
SARATOGA DRF questions:
1) Is this new Saratoga Trainer guide for $19.95 taking the place of the Saratoga paper preview that has come out every year around now?
2) Will the DRF be offering the SAR race meet discount for online PP's as in the past?
I have been waiting to make my purchases as in the past, but if things have changed I will have to change, too.
TY to anyone that can help with this!
Posted by AndyScoggin Jul 17, 2008 11:29:16 AM
lonny_keller says:
Codeword wasn't DQ'd because the horse he fouled wasn't going to hit the board. But yes. the stewards in NY have been inconsistent in their rulings recently.
California racing, which I once loved, has been ruined by artificial surfaces. Bettors are being treated like lab rats, while they fool around with the track surface. It was the same deal at Santa Anita this winter. Hard to believe the Breeders Cup will be running there two years in a row. You want to bet on Del Mar? Don't complain if you don't win!!
Posted by Lonny Keller Jul 17, 2008 11:16:17 AM
maggie says:
I am glad that the track is finally playing more consistently. I do have to admit, I was a bit skeptical when the Del Mar official came out claiming that there would be faster times. After the openining day, all skepticism disappears, and I am happy to say that I am glad!
Posted by Maggie Jul 17, 2008 11:08:57 AM
About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
