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Crist Blog | July 12, 2008Print

Saturday Notions

Johnhenrythebart_2
CHICAGO -- Curlin's grass debut in the Man o' War may be the single most compelling race on Saturday's busy schedule, but the cards at Arlington and Calder are far more interesting and engaging than Belmont's, which is not only short on quality but peculiarly arranged.

There's a $52k pick-6 carryover I won't be playing at Belmont, where cards seem increasingly to be set up to foil multirace players. The two best and richest races on the card besides the Man o'War are being run as the 3rd and 4th, preceding the pick-six sequence, while the clearly worst race on the card, a sprint for beaten $15k claiming fillies that should have been the first or second half of the early double, has been inexplicably slotted as the 7th. The finale, which ends both the pick-4 and pick-6, is a dismal statebred maiden turf race where the second and third ML choices are first-time starters, exactly the kind of race that should never be run as the last on the card. The placement of the 7th and 10th make the pick-4 and pick-6 unplayable for me, so I'll watch Curlin with keen, but not parimutuel, interest.

At Arlington, where I'll be doing a seminar with Mike Watchmaker and Marcus Hersh starting at 11 a.m., there are three intriguing grass stakes that serve as the local preps for the track's three big Grade 1 races August 9th: The G3 Arlington Handicap is a prep for the Arlington Million; the G3 Modesty for fillies at 9.5f will yield some longshot starters for the Beverly D, and the G2 American Derby for 3-year-olds is the prelude to the Secretariat.

The two favorites in the Arlington Handicap are both former Patrick Biancone trainees -- Cosmonaut, now with Carlos Martin, and Stream Cat, who has been transferred to Rusty Arnold. Cosmonaut, third in last year's BC Mile, will be shooting for his third straight Arlington Handicap victory, and for the third year in a row he looks like the lone speed on paper and a serious threat to wire the field. Stream Cat hasn't been out since Oct. 27, and 10 furlongs for a new trainer off a nine-month layoff isn't my idea of value at 5-2. Instead, I'll use Cosmonaut and Corrupt, an improving 4-year-old with all sorts of trips and excuses in his last three starts.

The Modesty is the best betting race of the three, with a field of 11 in which at least six have a real shot of victory. Ciao at 10-1 ML is appealing in her third off a layoff if she can get back to the form that got her within half a length of Bit of Whimsy in last fall's G2 Mrs. Revere, and Lemon Chiffon at 6-1 may have the most upside in the group, making just her fifth start and her first outside California. Ballymore Lady must be used at 5-1 off a sharp second to Dreaming of Anna last time out in the G3 Mint Julep.

The American Derby has more of a Million Day flavor than the other two in that it features two appealing European imports: Great War Eagle (Storm Cat-Cash Run), second in a pair of Irish G3's this spring, and 10-1 Blue Exit, in from France. They'll have to run down Tizdejavu, who got loose winning the G3 American Turf and G2 Jefferson Cup in his last two and looks likely to get loose again here.

Calder's Summit of Speed card includes four straight graded stakes at six furlongs worth a combined $1.3 million: the Azalea and Carry Back for 3-year-olds, then the Princess Rooney and Smile for older sprinters. Out-of-towners appear to have the edge in all four races.

The Azalea looks like a showdown between fillies based in San Francisco and Vancouver: Indyanne, a winner of her three career starts in Northern California by a combined 23 lengths, and Dancing Allstar, the pride of Hastings Park, who is 8-for-10 overall and 7-for-7 on real dirt.

The Carry Back has a solid favorite in Lantana Mob, winner of the G3 Hirsch Jacobs on the Preakness undercard, though he hasn't raced since then and has moved from Steve Asmussen's barn to Michael Trombetta's. But it's a weird race. There's not a single true frontrunner in the field, which may compromise the favorite's chances. Also, you have to figure out what to do with Golden Spikes and Gentleman James, who earned stratospheric 104 Beyers finishing a head apart and 10 lengths clear of the rest of the field in the local prep for this, the June 14 Unbridled. Those performances were 17-to-19 point career tops in sprints for both colts.

The G1 Princess Rooney features a rematch between the 1-2 finishers in the May 25 G2 Vagrancy, Looky Yonder and Dream Rush, both unraced since then. Dream Rush had a four-length lead after 5 1/2 furlongs that day but stopped late as Looky Yonder came from the clouds to run her down. That big move has made Looky Yonder the favorite, but I lean toward Dream Rush, who cuts back half a furlong and should improve in her second start of the year. Mistical Plan deserves a long look at 10-1 cutting back from 8.5f to 6f; the last time she did that, she won the Sunshine Million Oaks. Miraculous Miss, beaten just half a length at 43-1 in the BC F&M Sprint last year, should be up for a piece in her second start of the year.

The Smile looks made to order for the country's top-ranked sprinter, Benny the Bull, who is listed at 7-5 but could be odds-on. He beat 3-1 ML second-choice Man of Danger by only a neck in the G2 True North on Belmont Day, but was hampered by a slow pace and an almost-too-late ride. The Smile has plenty of speed to keep Man of Danger busy early and I'm looking for another closer, the vastly improved Rockerfeller (ML 6-1), rather than Man of Danger, to complete the exacta.

If you forced me to bet on the Man o' War, I'd probably try to beat Curlin with Grand Couturier rather than the better-known (and perhaps past-their-prime) Better Talk Now and Red Rocks. Grand Couturier got seriously good last summer, beating English Channel on the square at Saratoga and then running a fine third to Doctor Dino and Sunriver in a slow-paced Man o' War. If you forgive his BC Turf over a soft course he didn't handle, and his comeback at Belmont last month where he tried to rally from dead last into a 22.93 final quarter, he has possibilities at a price.

As I'm wrapping this up at 1:30 a.m. Central time, thunderstorms are pelting Chicago, so be sure to check course conditions and late scratches. And as long as we're talking Arlington, I never get tired of watching this one:


Posted by Steven Crist Jul 12, 2008 2:27:08 AM | Permalink



Keywords:



Comments



emily says:

Asmussen chose the 1 3/8th-mile Man o'War over Saturday's Arlington Park Handicap at Arlington Park near Chicago, in part because the lure of stiff competition. Curlin should get it against a field that will include former Breeders' Cup Turf winners Better Talk Now and Red Rocks.

Posted by Emily Jul 24, 2008 1:28:51 AM



pat says:

Curlin appears to hang if he is not ahead at the 9 furlong pole - not quit. While this would appear to be "un-turf" strategy, in Europe a relatively early brush to the front may leave everyone in the weeds! He is the best horse on the planet - if we ignore Somebeachsomewhere

Posted by Pat Jul 15, 2008 9:13:59 PM



yuwipi says:

The hoarsehorseplayer for President!

Posted by yuwipi Jul 14, 2008 5:36:08 PM



thehoarsehorseplayer says:

With apologies to Mr. Frost.

“Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth.”

Many years ago Racing found itself at a crossroads. Recognizing it was by nature a high-cost, high-end gambling option it could have chosen to market itself to the $200.00 player. This, of course, not only would have taken a non-existent confidence in itself, but ultimately would have also required a commitment to transparency and accountability.

So it,

“Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same.”

Which is basically the multiple exotics, dime superfecta route. Make the game less like chess and more like checkers; a game of softball not of baseball. More about ticket construction, or parimutuel bingo playing, than hard-choice handicapping. Now, this was a legitimate option. The great Maw of Racing has an extraordinary appetite, insatiable really, the temptation to pursue a broader, if less sophisticated betting crowd the most practical of decisions. The problems with practical decisions, of course, is that sometimes what is beneficial for the short term is not necessarily beneficial for the long term. And what we’re seeing in the long term is that rinky-dink is begetting rinky-dink. The game, to any objective observer, is getting tackier and tackier and tackier. Even some of the architects of the Brave New World of Racing are seeing some cracks in their visionary structures.

Still, once decisions have been made they’re hard to reverse, or so Frost tells us,

“And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.”

But the thing is, to save its soul Racing doesn’t have to double-back. Not being one traveler it has the option of taking two roads at once. Let the gamblers have their gambling games, but let the investors and the puzzle solvers have the most accurate information possible on which to base their decisions. If Racing recognizes that the educated consumer is their best customer the game can recover its dignity. But the educated consumer needs to know (among a hundred other things he doesn’t know now) when a horse was gelded. Knowing when a horse was gelded makes handicapping a better game for many horseplayers in the way that another Stuporfecta wager never can. Here we run into the roadblocks, the negative energy that has hoovered the game into rinky- dink Suckdom: the “We can’t provide that because” (and there are always reasons) lament. Always the debilitating “We can’t” lament,” instead of the vigorous, vital, “Let’s figure out how to get this done.” approach. And so, who can be surprised that Racing weakens when all its institutions lack the vitality to be the best they can be? And as we’re seeing, it’s a predictable downward spiral. For the less sophisticated a consumer you have, the easier it is to push a second or third rate Racing product off on them. Or is that not what is happening? Are standards not being compromised?

So, the real divergence in the woods seems to be between those who believe that Racing is the Great Sport, Handicapping the Great Puzzle, whose traditions must be diligently preserved and those who believe that increasing handle absolves all sins.

Count me among those who still believe Racing can be a great sport, and handicapping not only the greatest puzzle, but the truest test of wits among sportsmen. But only if horseplayers demand excellence, accountability, and transparency from their institutions. Pursue excellence, handle will follow. Pursue handle and you’re going to have a hard time keeping a handle on excellence.

But then, maybe one day, perhaps, in an over-crowded paddock at Aqueduct

“I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.”



Posted by thehoarsehorseplayer Jul 14, 2008 1:30:21 PM



unitas says:

For the most part, this is a very interesting, informative blog with various points of views and opinions, which is great, I love it. However, when one or two individuals use this space as their own personal message board (I'll paraphrase, "So and so, call me on Sunday" or "I'll meet you there tomorrow night"), it makes a mockery of what is being conducted and accomplished here. Please, lets stick to the nuts and bolts of racing, be it opinions, observations, comments, even good "bad beat" stories, and whatever else needs to be shared or vented in this space. Don't use this blog as a meeting board, because, quite frankly, the 99.9% of us who use this space responsibly do not care about your personal meetings or affairs. Show some respect here For Steve C. and the rest of us. Thanks.

Posted by Unitas Jul 13, 2008 3:33:27 PM



flipper_dawson says:

To curious, here is what happened.
The cops knocked in my front door when I was talking to Buffalo Joe, and took my phones. They said they were looking for "papers", but all I had was the Toronto Star.
Can you shed any light on this, as I'm pretty naive.

Posted by Flipper Dawson Jul 13, 2008 3:06:51 PM



buffalo_joe says:

CURIOUS, What is the topic, do you want us to tell the conections of Curlin where to run, or maybe what suplements to put in his feed?

Or just sit back and wait for the next questionable call from the stewards somewhere, and then complain?....

If you follow this blog you will see I typically post at 2, 3, or 4AM, I have Flippers phone #, and we speak on the phone, he dosen't take calls after the 10PM cut-off, but if you do, I'll call you, if you will post your # as Flipper did.

Also my main objective is to pick and bet on winning horses and if you can help me to this end, please chrip in once in awhile. Flipper, while our hanicapping styles are very different, he does bring good angles that I have used to cash bets. And that it what it is all about, just ask any horse player.

Posted by buffalo joe Jul 13, 2008 2:28:39 PM



yuwipi says:

Just one opinion on the Man O' War: the turf has been very firm at Belmont lately. Would be unlikely to find such ground in Europe in the fall. Of course that doesn't mean Curlin will perform any better on softer grass I guess.
Loved Tom Durkin's "on a suicide mission" for MIssion Approved. Chart caller has him on the lead "in hand for a mile." He sure complicated things for Frankel's horse.

Posted by yuwipi Jul 13, 2008 1:21:36 PM



gocashbaby says:

Weight is the most overhyped handicapping factor. There is absolutely no evidence that putting a couple (5 even) pounds more on the back of a speeding 2,000 pound animal will slow it down sufficiently so as to cost it a race. Great, even good horses will carry the weight and win because they are simply that much better. Remember how Forego used to carry 138 and win regularly. I am not convinced that the difference between 118 and 113 pounds is a couple of lengths.

Posted by gocashbaby Jul 13, 2008 10:33:58 AM



curious says:

This is, I know, off-topic, and for that I apologize, but Flipper and Joe--do you both lack e-mail address and telephones? I can't think of another explanation for why you would need to communicate with each other here, rather than directly with each other.

Posted by curious Jul 13, 2008 9:12:34 AM



callmetony says:

After watching the man o war I think Curlin should finish his career out on dirt .Bring him to saratoga and then finish off with the breeders cup . Of course I'm a little biased as I'm currently already up at the Spa just waiting for the meet to start .

See u @ Siros Steve !!!!!! I sure hope Harvey will be back .............

Posted by callmetony Jul 13, 2008 9:00:47 AM



buffalo_joe says:

Flipper, Don't know if my last post "ASMUSSEN FOR PRIME MINISTER" will get on or was lost in cyperspace which happens to me once in a while on this blog.Dosen't matter it will headline on The Star in the AM.
Will be staying home Sunday, calling for 90 and thunderstorms. Call me when you are able to talk anytime after noon.

Posted by buffalo joe Jul 13, 2008 12:28:33 AM



gunbow says:

Here's hoping that if Jess Jackson does run Curlin on the grass in his next race it's the Arlington Million. After Curlin's good but not great Man O'War, I just don't see how Jackson and Asmussen can proceed full steam ahead for the Arc. Original plans were to ship Curlin to Europe early and get in a prep for the Arc there. I would like to think that now, after the Man O'War, Jackson and Asmussen will seek additional evidence that a turf campaign is actually appropriate before subjecting the horse to transcontinental shipping/relocation. The Million would appear to be the perfect race in which to test Curlin before committing to the Arc; the distance of one mile+quarter is Curlin's best, the field will be formidable with a few second-tier Euros likely, the timing would allow for a final Arc prep in Europe, and the winners purse would put the horse over $10 million. If Curlin wins the Million, then Jackson and Asmussen can head over to Europe with the confidence that he would, at the very least, be competitive against turf racing's best. If he were to lose the Million, oh well, nothing lost, and the horse could return to the dirt for the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders Cup Classic/Clark. Racing in the Million would also guarantee US fans at least one more opportunity to see the champion. Otherwise, wouldn't it be ironic that after fans had finally been rewarded with a top 3 year old returning to the track, the horse would only make 2 starts in America? That is exactly what is likely to occur if Jackson and Asmussen stick to their plan and ship him to Europe early.

Posted by GunBow Jul 13, 2008 12:16:08 AM



justin says:

Curlin ran real well for his first time on the turf, he just didn't show that late burst we are all used to seeing, and he did get beat by a Breeder's Cup winner. I don't think I'd send him to France, I would leave him here to beat Big Brown in the Breeder's Cup. By the way did you love the TV announcer's calling the photo before they even put up the results.

Posted by Justin Jul 12, 2008 11:24:52 PM



flipper_dawson says:

Buffalo Joe, if going to the Fort on Sunday, call me around 2 PM.
A race is setting up in late Double at WO.

Secret Play horse won today in race 10, but only paid $10.80.
Morning line was 8-1.
The exactor was easy, as picked by 2 papers. --$60.40.
Talk later.

Posted by Flipper Dawson Jul 12, 2008 8:15:40 PM



gofor_broke says:

A great day of racing. It's crazy that the different tracks can't put a package together for tv with the horses running at Belmont, Calder and Delaware Park.
Several of the best horses in training are running, and the only exposure was ESPN News, which I forgot to watch. I watched the Man O War on the racing channel in NYC.

Posted by gofor broke Jul 12, 2008 7:11:30 PM



flipper_dawson says:

How Steve Asmussen won a stake race worth 300 grand at WO on 7-12-08
---------------------------------
Actually, the race was handed to him. Here's how--The horse that ran 2nd was SPRUNG, who is a nice filly.
Only trouble is that Husbands was 5 pounds over, pulling 118, rather than 113 assigned.
Husbands is the go-to rider for trainer Marke Casse. Why he would use Husbands is unclear. Husbands is near the top in jockey wins.

The Asmussen horse THE NIAGARA QUEEN had top jockey up ( Jim MacAleney) who could make the weight of 115.

So, these 2 horses ding-donged down the stretch, but SPRUNG could not pass THE NIAGARA QUEEN, who won by 1 1/2 lengths.
Winning purse was 210 grand, so the 5 pounds cost the jockey and trainer of SPRUNG 21 grand.
Asmussen was not there, but they interviewed his asst. trainer STEVE FLINT, who said he had a lot of success with nags 3 starts off the shelf.(Remember this).
A real sharp blonde in the Winners Circle turns out to be Flint's future wife, as he is getting married this winter.

Oh, I almost forgot. THE NIAGARA QWEEN raced out of the detention barn.
Asmussen's horses get this treatment, due to the fact that Woodbine suits "heard he was up on drug charges in Texas."
The winner paid $12.70, keying an exactor of $95.50.

---------------------------
If you Yankees have any more of Asmussen's horses, send them north. If no stalls at WO, they can stay in my garage.

Posted by Flipper Dawson Jul 12, 2008 6:56:43 PM



saratoga_mike says:

When is Asmussen going to wake up and put a real jockey on Curlin? Could Albarado have kept the horse any wider during the first half mile? His ride in Dubai was equally perplexing, but in that case he prevailed.

Posted by Saratoga_Mike Jul 12, 2008 6:38:59 PM



andyscoggin says:

THANK YOU
TY
TY
TY

Whoever you were 3 weeks ago that told us about Red Nation at CRC taking a bad beat. Well, I put him on my DRF HorseWatch and he ran today at CRC with FTL and romped in the Frank Gomez 2YO Stake and paid $19.40!! I had a huge win bet!

Let's have more of this on the CristBlog. I hope I wasn't the only who cashed on the tip from our blogmate!

Whoever you are, if you are going to be at SAR in August I will buy you a drink!

Posted by AndyScoggin Jul 12, 2008 5:30:46 PM



andyscoggin says:

Clown-shown,

Most horses get their FTL as a result of a workout. If bleeding is suspected, and I emphasize suspected, a vet "scopes" the horses lungs and proclaims that there was bleeding and thus FTL.

Posted by AndyScoggin Jul 12, 2008 4:56:44 PM



larry_thiel says:

Arlington seems to be the one polytrack in the country where speed has a good chance to win.

Posted by Larry Thiel Jul 12, 2008 2:31:43 PM



willow_hour says:

Steve -- Thanks for that clip from the inaugural Arlington Million. Immediately following the race, when the result was still up in the air (I thought The Bart had won), the late, great Pete Axthelm was asked what his thoughts were about the race. He responded, as only he could: "Abject shock."

Posted by Willow Hour Jul 12, 2008 1:54:54 PM



yuwipi says:

Steve,

Now that's a way to start a Saturday morning! I enjoyed the post race part of the video as much as the race. Had forgotten about Key to Content, and couldn't remember who rode him that day. Seeing George Martens standing post race in the Rokeby colors was almost as good as a trip to the silks room at the Racing Museum. Pete Axethelm and Willie Shoemaker looking like it was yesterday. You've put me on a bittersweet cloud nine.

Turning to something not so pleasant, we've all been tossing around the merits or lack of on various steward's decisions lately. Personally, I kind of enjoy the gray area where a call can go either way, and think these differences of opinion are part of the games appeal. Several posters have called for more "transparency" towards the stewards calls. Since I agree totally with your opinion on race sequencing I think fans are entitled to some sort of explanation from NYRA as to how this comes about. Does someone (the racing secretary?) have carte blanche to contrive any sequence they choose while everyone else has their head in the sand? Does this person answer to anyone? I'm not a Pick 6 player, but I do like a swing now and then at the Pick 4, and plan to ratchet my Pick 4's up at Saratoga. It would be nice to know that foiling the strategies of multi race players is not considered "job well done" by the racing office. I'm sure the job's not easy, but thoughts regarding race order and a peculiar addiction to turf sprints are something it would be nice to hear someone explain, even if it's only throwing us a bone.

On the horse front, if Dutrow is able to get past Dream Rush again I will be very surprised, and my Calder expedition will be confetti.

Posted by yuwipi Jul 12, 2008 12:22:06 PM



race says:

Steven--Thank you so much for the John Henry race. It brought back great memories of my Dad and I going to the track together---r

Posted by race Jul 12, 2008 11:46:29 AM



flipper_dawson says:

To Dunque, and Buffalo Joe:
Am playing the late super today at WO, as there are 2-3 turf races early, and they will be off the turf.

Plus slept in, as my son was hooking up our boat last night in the dark, and the front of the trailer fell off the ball, landing on his foot.So, he went home with 2 bags of ice. He must feel better, as his truck and the boat were gone when we woke up.---------------
There is a nice angle developing in the last 2 races at WO. It happened on Friday 7-11-08.
It makes the SECRET PLAY in last race that much stronger, when Asmussen wins next to last race.
He rammed his winner right down the throats of WO suits, by having his horse win right out of detention barn.
I will be watching for this angle on Sunday--no play on Sat.
I guess I could give you the rules soon. I'm interested to see if anyone else has seen this. Buffalo Joe, call me some night on weekend.

Posted by Flipper Dawson Jul 12, 2008 11:12:39 AM



bochalls says:

Hey Bob M...love your ideas. Let us get back to handicapping, esp. with Saratoga coming up...... Steve, I am a big trainer follower at Saratoga and love Motion in a few spots that he has become deadly in over the last few years. However, with him losing a lot of his stock to Mott or whomever, I am worried. Any golden trainer nuggets you can feed me/us for the upcoming Sar meet? Don't worry, I will reciprocate, but you go first!

Posted by bochalls Jul 12, 2008 10:39:49 AM



bob_m says:

steve,

great stuff with the secretariat race and then the john henry race...

i also will be rooting for curlin, but passing the race from a betting standpoint..

12 days to saratoga and i am very happy your last 2 entrees in the blog are strictly handicapping related.. i look forward to seeing you at siros opening day and talking about picking winners instead of racing politics..

i would also love it if you put together some sort of saratoga handicapping ideas blog where all the loyal toga followers can write in with just one handicapping idea each geared towards the spa meet..

Posted by bob m. Jul 12, 2008 9:53:23 AM



wayne80 says:

4 of the final 6 races are maiden races on a Saturday at Belmont??

This shows a complete disdain for quality, pure greed without regard for its consequence. Belmont deserves better, as do Curling and the rest of the Man O War participants who deserve to share their walks to and from the racetrack with horses of better quality.

Posted by Wayne80 Jul 12, 2008 8:59:10 AM



jeannew says:

Enjoy Chicago. I'll be trekking to Belmont to see Curlin. The American Derby looks like one I'll play from Belmont, the Euro's always seem to like that course. I'll be rooting on Carlos Martin and Cosmonaut as well.
Your article reminded me that the Aug 9-10 weekend at the Spa looks so dismal that I may plan a getaway that weekend and Chicago for the Million might beat out a two day escape to the beach in Massachussetts.

Posted by jeanneW Jul 12, 2008 8:32:43 AM



clown_show says:

I don't handicap Arlington all that much but i notice something interesting about their PPs in the DRF. Every horse that is first time lasix the comment is 'bled'.

Is it not possible to bleed in a subsequent workout and THEN get lasix? Every single FTL has a bled next to the charted comment, yet i can't imagine that every horse bled in the actual race...some must bleed afterwards.

So, how are we supposed to know if a horse bled in the race, or at some point between his last start and today's start? Could be misleading info there.

If the DRF is so gung-ho to put 'bled' in the form, they ought to put some notation next to first time starters who START their careers with lasix....after all, those horses must have 'bled' in one of their published workouts, the fans would like to know which workout was the 'bled workout'.

Or, do the sensible thing and get rid of the word 'bled' altogether.

Posted by clown_show Jul 12, 2008 4:11:19 AM



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About

Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He recently released an instructional DVD titled "Exotic Tickets," and is the author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."