Crist Blog | October 25, 2008
BC Saturday Live
12:30 pm: Arise and wager! Just 40 minutes to post time for the first so-called Breeders' Cup race, though you wouldn't really know it if you're an in-home bettor. The ABC coverage doesn't start until 1 p.m. ET, 10 minutes to post time for the BC Marathon; my local ABC affiliate is running back-to-back episodes of "Power Rangers Jungle Fury" between noon and 1. The broadcast coverage runs from 1 to 3:30 ET on ABC before switching to ESPN from 3:30 to 7.
Your multirace deadlines:
1:50 pm ET: Early pick-4 on races 2-5
3:15 pm ET: Pick-6 on races 4-9
4:35 pm ET: Middle pick-4 on races 6-9
6:00 pm ET: Late pick-4 on races 8-11
The early scratches so far are Add Heat in the Marathon (race 1), Elusive Bluff in the Juvenile (5th), Mark S The Cooler in the Juvenile Turf(6th), Cost of Freedom in the Sprint (7th), and D. Double You,Victo's Cry and Young Joe from the Damascus (10th).
The only one of those I was using the pick-6 play was Cost of Freedom, so I need to go reconfigure those tickets and I'll post them shortly after phoning in the changes to the Albany Teletheatre where they're buying my $5k play for their customers today.
12:55 pm: Here's the matrix, which covers $4,992 of the allotted $5,000:
Here's how the tickets play out. Note that, to keep things relatively understandable for the telethteatre partners, on today's play the main ticket consists of ALL the A's and B's, accounting for $3k of the $5k play:
Ticket #1: 2,3,4/1,4,8,11,12/3,4,10,11,12/2,3,4,7/2,3,4,9,11/9
Ticket #2: 1,5,7,10,11/11,12/3,4,11/3,4/4,9,11/9
Ticket #3: 2,4/2,3,13/3,4,11/3,4/4,9,11/9
Ticket #4: 2,4/11,12/5,7,8/3,4/4,9,11/9
Ticket #5: 2,4/11,12/3,4,11/5,6,9/4,9,11/9
Ticket #6: 2,4/11,12/3,4,11/3,4/1,5,6,10/9
Ticket #7: 2,4/11,12/3,4,11/3,4/4,9,11/1,3,4,5,7,8
That adds up to $4992 ($3,000, $360, $216, $144, $216, $192, $864), so I spent the final $8 on a wacky five singles plus four more backups in the Classic:
Ticket #8: 4/11/3/3/4/2,10,11,12
I had to leave out exactly one horse in the Classic so as not to spend $5002. That would be some beat: Get home five singles and be alive to 11 of 12 in the Classic and get beat by Smooth Air.
I'm going to set up a Saturday-to-Saturday handle-comparison chart later on but I'll leave it at the bottom of this entire post so you don't have to keep scrolling past it to find updates as the day goes on.
1:05 pm: Not to start off on a grumpy note, but could we stop pretending the Breeders' Cup is a global championship "like the Olympics and the World Cup" that will settle "nine world titles" as the ABC telecast just claimed? The "world" that Curlin is facing stretches only as far as France in one direction and a single unaccomplished 3-year-old from Japan in the other. There are no other horses here from Asia, none from Australia, and the very best horse in Europe, Zarkava, was retired in perfect health rather than being sent here. It's a great event, a terrific day of racing and betting, but it ain't the Olympics.
1:30 pm: Muhannak, an Irish-bred Polytrack specialist who had never run in a graded stakes race, still hasn't run in a graded stakes race but was the winner of the inaugural $500k Breeders' Cup Marathon. Which world title did he just win?
Unlike us, the Europeans do not run important races on artifical tracks. They pioneered them not as a "safety" measure but to extend flat racing into the winter months, sort of like the inner-dirt track at Aqueduct. Muhannak is that kind of horse. He had won 6 of 14 career starts, including 4 of 7 starts over polytracks at Dundalk, Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
Did the best horse win? That's debatable. Favored Sixties Icon, a St. Leger winner and legitimate graded stakes animal in Europe, really didn't get a fair chance, repeatedly blocked as a hole never opened for Dettori at the inside. And any race where the first six furlongs are run in 1:16.20 over a lightning-fast track may not have been "truly run." Despite the slow early fractions, this was a closer's delight, with the early 1-2-3 leaders coming home at the rear and the horses running 4-8-7-6 after a mile being 1-2-3-4 at the wire.
2:15 pm: This is one of the reasons I'm glad I'm a "public" handicapper for only 17 races a year. How was I supposed to be rooting in the final yards of the inaugural BC Turf Sprint: for 6-1 Diabolical, who I "picked," or for 36-1 Desert Code, one of five others I "used" in the first leg of the early pick-4?
I expected chaos in this race, and that's what happened. My betting strategy was to throw out all the blazing early speed, given the 6 1/2-furlong distance of a race for mostly 5- and 5 1/2-furlong specialists over a quirky course, and I liked Diabolical because he's a seriously good horse in a field of otherwise uncertain quality. If I get blown out in this pick-4 (which goes 8,9,11/2,3,4/1,4,8,11,12 the rest of the way), I'll end up wishing Diabolical had held on, but for now I'll take a $75 mutuel in the first leg.
The Desert Code-Diabolical exacta came back $786.20 for $2, and the Muhannak-Desert Code daily double paid $1169.20 for $2.
3:00 pm: Bet early and patiently if you're using the Internet: It just took me 23 minutes to put in the eight pick-6 tickets via NYRA Rewards, about 20 minutes longer than it would take on a Thursday afternoon.
So much for that early pick-4. I suppose one way to play the Dirt Mile was just to take all the horses coming out of the Goodwood, which would have included Albertus Maximus, but I saw no reason Well Armed shouldn't beat that group again so went with him and two longshot 3-year-olds. Got a brief flutter with My Pal Charlie, but only a brief one, and Albertus Maximus continued the pattern of success by closers with synthetic-track experience. Albertus Maximus completed an early pick-3 worth $10,522.20 for $2.
I'm switching from ABC to TVG for a while. I like the ABC/ESPN guys and am curious about how these races are being presented to a general audience, but between the lack of odds and payoffs, the constant trumpeting of the global importance of the event and the goofy camera angles during the race, I just can't use it as a horseplayer.
3:30 pm: How good is Goldikova? And how good is Zarkava, who beat her fair and square twice in Europe?
Goldikova looked like she was in trouble in upper stretch as she couldn't find a seam to run through but the moment a seam opened she shot through with a spectacular burst of speed. Kip DeVille ran his race and just as well as he did winning this race last year, and there's no disgrace in being second best to this filly.
The whole world's alive in the pick-6. Nice not to be deceased after one leg, as per Lahudood last year.
Not that I'm a place bettor, but $4.00 and $4.80 on Goldikova and Kip DeVille look pretty generous. Did someone plunge big elsewhere in the place pool?
4:15 pm: Bad result in the Juvenile for Champagne/Hopeful winner Vineyard Haven: Midshipman, Square Eddie and Street Hero were the only horses who could match his dual-G1 credentials for the 2-year-old title, which will now almost surely go to Juvenile winner Midshipman. Both colts will end the season 3-for-4 with two G1's, and the edge always goes to the BC winner.
Midshipman's winning time of 1:40.94 was just 0.05 faster than Stardom Bound's time in yesterday's BC Juvenile Fillies, but it's not yet clear whether today's main track is just as fast. Speaking of time, that 41.81 half-mile split posted above for the Turf Sprint is not a typo. That's what's in the official chart. Anyone ever seen a faster opening half-mile? And how about the six-furlong fraction of 1:05.32?
Both of this year's 2-year-old main-track races ended in 1-2-3 finishes by the only G1 winners in the field: Stardom Bound/Dream Empress/Sky Diva yesterday, Midshipman/Square Eddie/Street Hero today. And both times it was a California G1 winner beating a Keeneland G1 winner.
Two-for-two with an AA start in the pick-6 but there's a long way to go.
5:30 pm: They almost retired Midnight Lute and what a pleasure that they didn't. Last year's BC Sprint winner, with just one dismal race under his belt since then, was as dominant on fast Pro-Ride as he was in the slop at Monmouth last year, circling the field again to become the first repeat winner of the race. As has been the case for almost every BC race -- and certainly so in all six of the "old" BC races so far -- the best horse won.
I've never started a BC Pick-6 AAAA. The live tickets boil down to a 9x1 and a 3x6:
1,2,3,4,5,6,9,10,11/9 or
4,9,11/1,3,4,5,7,8
6:30 pm: As if we needed any further prooof, have today's results driven home that the best grass horses race in Europe? They've swept the Mile, Juvenile Turf and now the Turf, running 1-2 in the JT and 1-2-4 in the Turf.
Win or lose, this is why I play main and backup tickets. The Albany crowd and I are alive to seven horses in the Classic, and I never could have spread that far with a one-ticket caveman play. I still am far from home, having left out the quintet of Casino Drive, Smooth Air, Fairbanks, Colonel John and Champs Elysees, and I'm sure I have plenty of company in the live-ticket department, but here are the willpays:
Ooops, can't find them anywhere. They're not on the NYRA site and I'm not going to hold my breath for ESPN to post them. So I have no idea whether or how to hedge.
The smallest pick-4's are $1196 to Curlin, $3821 to Go Between, $4233 to Duke of Marmalade and $5493 to Raven's Pass.
7:30 pm: I know it would have paid a lot less than $55k, but I was rooting for Curlin around the turn. Alas, he clearly wasn't the same horse over a synthetic track. I'm taking nothing away from Raven's Pass and Henry the Navigator, but when Curlin gets nailed for third by Tiago, you know he didn't run his A race.
Horse of the Year? Let the debate begin. I outlined my case yesterday why I'd still prefer Curlin to Zenyatta even if he finished 9th today, and I haven't changed my mind in the last 24 hours. Will it be a grave injustice if it goes the other way? Not really, HOTY is a nebulous honor, and Zenyatta's a terrific racehorse in her own right. Still, I hope all the people who bullied Curlin's connections into running in a race his trainer never wanted to try will now refrain from punishing him for showing up.
I'm told there were 41 patrons at the Albany teletheatre who sliced up the (second) $55k ticket. To be in the pool, you had to wager over $2500 through Capitol OTB during September and October, and then show up today at the teletheatre and register.
It was an excellent two days of racing. And now it's time for a cocktail.
PS -- Don't forget: Mandatory pick-6 payout tomorrow on closing day at Belmont. And Shug McGaughey's got a first-timer in the 6th who's a half-sister to....Zenyatta!
PPS -- I'll do some more analysis in the days ahead, but here's that Saturday-to-Saturday comparison promised earlier. Bottom line: The commingled BC Saturday handle fell about 9 percent year over year, from $112 million at Monmouth last year to $102 million today. Both were 11-race cards, with 9 BC races this year and 8 (somewhat different) BC races last year. The $102 million total was down nearly 25 percent from the 10-race BC Saturday card at Churchill Downs in 2006.
PPPS: Was just doing the math on how many winning Pick-6 tickets there were and the numbers weren't coming out right and then I realized why: The Ultra Pick-6 attracted $2,882,343 -- $117,657 short of the $3 million guarantee. The makeup money enriched each of the 32 winning tickets by about $2200 after takeout and consos. The Ultra Pick Six drew $4.7 million at Churchill in 2006 and $3.2 million at Monmouth last year.
Posted by Steven Crist Oct 25, 2008 12:33:02 PM | Permalink
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Comments
tim_bryson says:
Wow, there really appear to be some bad, bitter, unsporting losers reading through these posts. So horses trained in England win both the Classic and the Turf. Good for them. Just remember guys, they gave the idea to the US, they were racing horses in England 200 years before this country existed. We ask them to travel a gruelling 6000 miles to come and compete with us in our backyard, when, up to this year, our horses have been pumped full of steroids and theirs have not, and then we whine and cry baby around like the US horses are disadvantaged when they beat us? Grow up! As for the phasing out of dirt tracks, I am so glad we are finally beginning to see the end of the sorry sight of strung out fields of sore, hurting horses, (average career length about five starts), hobbling drunk down the stretch at half the speed they started out at. Horses that get back to the barn stressed out and in pain as the bute wears off, hardly able to move the next day. Not only are synthetic tracks fairer for international competition, they save horses lives and extend their racing careers. Ten to fifteen years from now, people will realize just how primitive and barbaric dirt racing was. So you have to re-adjust your handicapping style? Big deal... As for steroids, a big part of the reason they were there was because of the toll a race on dirt takes on a horse. And now the US horses don't have them everyone is competing on fair terms.
Posted by Tim Bryson Nov 1, 2008 12:06:48 PM
grandcosmo says:
>>>I'm sorry, but 2 3YO Euro grass milers, neither of which have ever run 1 step beyond a mile, run 1-2 in the Classic, dusting the best 1 1/4 dirt horse we've seen in the last 25 years... what kind of result is that?<<<<
If there is no way that Curlin should be beaten why bother running the race?
Posted by grandcosmo Oct 28, 2008 9:17:56 PM
qualitytype says:
Hi Steve, sorry to mention this, but your comments aren't posting. It says 107, and I think there are about 40 one can read.
Posted by qualitytype Oct 28, 2008 1:56:57 PM
jake_jacobs says:
Some data regarding track bias and split times at this year’s Breeders Cup:
1) The Turf Sprint Splits
No, we’ve never seen splits like this. In the past two years, 220 sprints have been run down the hill at Santa Anita. Until Saturday, the fastest quarter had been 20.8 and the fastest half had been 42.5. The BC Sprint splits were 0.1 and 0.7 seconds faster. The remaining 2.402 furlongs of this event were not run particularly quickly. The Plod Boys gave the race a massive ZIP +338, one of the largest numbers ever issued by Racing Flow.
2) The Pro Ride Closer bias
Our track bias figures can be used to classify a dirt/synthetic/turf course a favoring speed versus closers. The average figure is 0. A figure less than -150 represents a pronounced speed bias. A figure greater than +150 indicates a pronounced closer bias. On Breeders Cup weekend, the Rro Ride figures were +241 and +172.
Posted by Jake Jacobs Oct 28, 2008 12:36:25 PM
buffalo_joe says:
After 48 hrs, I think the police consider one to be an offical Missing Person, unless of course one is "on the lam". Even if one has 60G's in his OTB account.
Posted by buffalo joe Oct 28, 2008 3:28:46 AM
mark_s says:
Congratulations on the P6. The run of 5A's is unlike anything I've seen before. As you pointed out, and as was chronicled online today, the P6 handle was less than the $3 million guarantee. The response of Ken Kirchner, the BC simulcasting and wagering consultant, was "bettors' preferences are shifting gradually in favor of pick four bets - Breeders' Cup may lower the guaranteed pool for the pick six next year." I believe it is correct that "ordinary" bettors prefer the P4 over the P6. The outlay is greatly reduced due to fewer races but, more importantly, the bet is available in $1 increments. Kirchner's suggestion that the P6 guarantee may be lowered is addressing the symptom and not the cause. If the P6 were available as a $1 wager, many (many!) more bettors would get involved. The time is now (past due, actually) to make the P6 accessible to everyone. Kirchner is barking up the wrong tree.
Posted by Mark S Oct 27, 2008 10:49:34 PM
super_d says:
Though it's easy to blame the surface and the Euro's. I'm mad, I screwed this up. Next year the trends are going to be so ridiculous that you'll be damned if you do or if you don't. Godspeed Churchill 2010.
Posted by Super D Oct 27, 2008 10:28:32 PM
sero says:
Is the Breeders’ Cup catering to Europeans upending American Tradition for the last 25 years. We may as well require Americans to drive on the wrong side of road(the right way for euros)too and throw everything out the window. I thought America had its own traditional benchmarks crowning champions. Dirt pedigrees will become meaningless. Look at the G1 Bluegrass at Keeneland for instance. It has lost all creditability as a major triple crown prep since switching to poly. I’m for international competition but not at the expense of ignoring the history of American racing. Hell, make all training tracks synthetic and keep racing on the dirt since we are only running on it for 100 seconds or less. Why weren’t track records reestablished when pro-ride was installed? The current SA track records are skewed since it was a different surface and was scraped due to drainage problems which created absurd results.
Posted by sero Oct 27, 2008 9:13:43 PM
yuwipi says:
Help! Has Typepad struck again? I've not been able to read past don_reed's #50 post of the 106 total posts since Saturday night. I've cleaned my browser cache etc. Would hate not to get to see them.
Posted by yuwipi Oct 27, 2008 5:56:53 PM
pete says:
Great story about the regular rider of Raven's Pass giving up the ride to Dettori with the horse's best interests in mind: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/racing/article4980448.ece
Would love to see American turf writers pick up on this story. If they have, somebody send me the link. If not, why not?
Posted by Pete Oct 27, 2008 1:52:54 PM
ray_manley says:
Alhough I would vote for Curlin for HOTY, this is not the same thing as Alysheba. Alysheba won the BC Classic. I think crowds are down at BC simulcast sites because folks would rather bet on line and watch and enjoy at home.
Why do folks want to beat up on the European's? I love to bet and watch the races from overseas on TVG. I wish the PP's for Europe's races were more like our PP's. And I like the European's coming here for our races. Nothing better than first time lasix on a right off of the plane shipper.
Posted by Ray Manley Oct 27, 2008 12:59:59 PM
081305 says:
Mr. Crist,
Would you please comment on this having been the first steroid-free BC and the impact this may have had on the results? I am of the opinion it was more responsible for the strong Euro performance than the synthetic surface.
Thanks
Posted by 081305 Oct 27, 2008 9:44:29 AM
bpm says:
Re micclay, my group has attended every BC since 2000, we took a pass on this year. The ticket prices were obscene and when you factor in the cost of the flight, hotel, ground transportation, and then the tickets (along with the possibility of wagering losses), it's too much to justify. We spent the day in the clubhouse at Keeneland and found it to be a very suitable alternative.
Posted by BPM Oct 27, 2008 9:33:56 AM
rutgers says:
I find it somewhat ironic that in this year spilting the race days based on gender, one of the better racing highlights from Saturday was Goldikova in Mile. (a "girl" beating the "boys") Having the Ladies Classic on Saturday with Zenyatta coupled Goldikova, would have showcased the fillies/mares alot better.
On another note, if the Distaff got renamed the Ladies Classic shouldn't the Juvey races be renamed Toddler races
Posted by Rutgers Oct 27, 2008 7:55:11 AM
debra_giglio says:
Steve -
I want to congratulate you on providing the Breeders Cup with an additional $2,341,192 wagered as a result of your column on the Super High Five and dime supers in the two Classic's. Perhaps you could do another column with Bob Ike's daily tracking figures on how much SA (winter) lost each day over the previous year by eliminating the dime super in the last race to accomodate the Super High Five. It's bad enough when the Racing powers take away something that the fan likes; but when they do it and lose "track income" too, it makes you wonder if anyone in the organization knows the customer, the product or the business!
Also, thank you so much for your charts on the money wagered. It's pretty obvious that no one in BC Marketing has seen them based on what they are putting out. At least with your charts we can see the apples and oranges they are throwing into the mix. My first inclination was to send the BC spin to Fact Check.com but the waiting list for "financial" was way too long.
Lastly, I am surprised that more people did not comment on the BC decision to stop the streaming of their feed to the web on Day 2 after providing it on Day 1. Unfortunately the excuse that they gave the ADW's was that ESPN owned the rights, but that didn't explain Day 1 or last year. I do like having the ABC/ESPN broadcast on - especially last year when Bailey's discussion of track conditions with the jocks made a difference. But I want don't want aerial views of the race in progress, while I do want to see the horses (not the stars) in the paddock, the post parade live and even some warm-up on track, minutes to post, probable exotic payoff's, fractions in a race, and the official site's feed re race changes if I am going to play the races and bet my money. Had I known ahead of time that the BC would take away that feed, I might have gone to a simulcast site but then I would be giving up all of the betting and payoff info available online. Either way, I feel like I am being forced to bet blind when the entity charged with putting on the show and providing the data denies any part of it to me and expects me to play their game. Am I alone in this - or do you think that perhaps some of the fall-off in betting could have been a result of denying the feed?
Posted by Debra Giglio Oct 27, 2008 2:27:28 AM
bksacks says:
Micclay,
Do you have any evidence that the BC is pandering to the Europeans? I'd be interested to hear it.
Curlin got beat. He got beat making a similar move Ventura, Midnight Lute and Zenyatta made on the same track, except they sustained it and won.
Did Asmussen train Curlin up to this race properly? Why can't that be the reason Curlin lost? Curlin was empty in deep stretch. That usually says 'trainer' to me.
Posted by bksacks Oct 27, 2008 12:50:16 AM
jeff says:
Hey mlnj
Durkin versus Denman is about as close at Zenyatta versus that field she strolled past...
NO CONTEST !!!
Whenever I start to think Trevor might be OK I listen back to his call of the BC Juveniles...while he's busy babbling about Circular Quay and Street Sense has come through on the rail and opened up a 6 length lead before he even mentions his name.
Durkin's calls give me goosebumps.....
Posted by jeff Oct 27, 2008 12:26:47 AM
burt_shapiro says:
I think the economy had a lot more to do with the handle being down than the track. People are worried about jobs stock market down and gambling is one thing to cut down on.
Posted by Burt Shapiro Oct 26, 2008 10:42:08 PM
nochalk4me says:
Dear Steve; I know I am asking for the impossible but here is a simple suggestion that involves DRF, the BC and Santa Anita for BC '09. If they are going to run Friday and Saturday, have the post position draws, for the full cards for BOTH days on the MONDAY prior! This would enable DRF to get PRINT versions of BOTH DAYS into ONE EDITION in stores not later than Wednesday morning. Charge 10 bucks if ya want, I don't care. I could care less about having the BC advance copy...you don't know who is running in what race, what the post draws are, etc. I know, it is all available online but SOME OF US like to have the actual paper in our hands and not print out 100 pages. I really didn't enjoy having to run out to get the Saturday copy after a full day of stress on Friday. Stupid. Further, bettors could plan their wagering strategies in proportion to their bankroll better. It would also give the BC more than 3 FRIGGIN DAYS to promote the matchups for BOTH DAYS...am I asking too much, making too much sense? Probably so.
Posted by NoChalk4Me Oct 26, 2008 10:19:00 PM
george315 says:
What an embarassment this wonderful sport has become. We decide who will be our champion horse on dirt with a $5,000,000 race that is run on used candles and crap. The BEST dirt runner in North America can't hold off 2 European turf horses at the top of the stretch. I BOYCOTTED this years Breeder's Cup and even if I wanted to bet, I would not be able to because NYRA's website was atrocious. I needed 5 minutes to make one bet. If I tried to call a bet in, I would be told your account is locked (yeah because your website is in the stoneage) and get shutout. I handled $2000 on 7 races on NYRA (through NYC OTB) and didn't bet a single polydollar. What made the entire experience worse was having to listen to the worst, antidramatic, weak toned voice of Trevor Denman. I'm sick and tired of hearing his squeaky voice screech "in an absolutely styyyylish peeeefomance". Wow how innovative. Listen, we are in America not Europe or Australia or South Africa. We should have the one and only true BIG GAME/BIG RACE announcer during these BIG events and that is TOM DURKIN. Can you imagine if Real Quiet and Victory Gallop's 1998 Belmont was called by Denman? Of course NOT!!! Every single Breeder's Cup should be held at Belmont or Churchill. THAT'S IT. That would be the sporty thing to do. Run it during the last SAT of SEP. One turn races run over get this, ONE TURN CONFIGURATIONS. Wow what a thought. Turf races with 14 horses running in a spacious one turn course (BELMONT). But noooooo, why would we want these "WORLD" championships decided over a neutral course? God forbid. You think the economy killed the handle. Nope, it's the idiots who are in charge. Polycrap, wrong track and even ARTIFICIAL turf. Add a spice of Trevor Denman and you have yourself a total nightmare.
Posted by George315 Oct 26, 2008 9:41:03 PM
horserun says:
UP 5.5% , HA MY ASS !!...only if you include the EUROPEANS, which comes to think of it makes perfect sense now, why they sold their soul to race over used tires , so the Europeans could kick our asses and everyone seems quite happy about it...and the reason is greener than a turf course....MONEY, EUROS TO BE EXACT (its the only chance they have to spin the numbers every year upward by increasing the euro/asia pools)....i should have known
Posted by horserun Oct 26, 2008 9:05:20 PM
stefan says:
All hail the Euros!! Because of them - Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator, to be specific - my father and I split the payoff on my (our) first four-digit signer. Here's hoping the next one comes before next year's BC.
Note to the BC braintrust and marketing higher-ups:
Please do the viewing public a favor and lose the "common color saddle cloth" idea. It makes following an individual horse's progress annoyingly difficult.
Posted by Stefan Oct 26, 2008 8:05:01 PM
alydarjk says:
Some thoughts:
No less than 8-10 changes in camera angles for each BC race by ESPN. You can't enjoy watching your horse or any horse.
With temperatures on the ProRide track measuring 130-160 degrees, why would we expect horses and riders to act normally. Even those who are used to it will not last long.
The handle tells the story-perfect weather and a significant drop in money.
The BC runs the risk of becoming something localized to the West Coast. Avioli et al. got in cahoots with the Euros. NYRA or Churchill can sponser something on the same day next year and ruin the BC parade.
Run Curlin back in the Clark and end the nonsense of Zenyatta as Horse of the Year. She is a nice filly, but one dimensional-on one surface.
Nice hit, Steve.
Posted by alydarjk Oct 26, 2008 3:52:51 PM
kenny_mac says:
I have to agree with Unitas, Albarado gave Curlin a Stewart Elliot(Smarty Jones) ride. He moved too soon. The facts speak for itself, go back and look at the official charts. He made up approx. five lenghts into a 24 second quarter from the three quarter to the mile, going miles wide. No wonder he was toast trying keep it going for another two furlongs.
Posted by Kenny Mac Oct 26, 2008 3:26:58 PM
mike_g says:
Why is everyone so convinced the surface was Curlin's undoing. He has not been in top form since Dubai. In his last two races he's beat Past the Point and Wanderin Boy(Grade 3 Horses on their best day) by a combined 2 lengths. Also it was not like he was beat by Optional Claimers. Raven's Pass and Henry' would be in the top 10 on anybody's list of World Rankings. You could also argue the Raven's Pass is better bred to run on dirt than Turf(Elusive Quality out a Lord at War Mare, bred in KY). Kingmambo is Henry's sire. Certainly capable of producing dirt runners. If Wandering Boy and Past the Point can get with in a length of Curlin, Tiago picking up the pieces for 3rd isn't out of the realm. It wasn't the Pro-Ride(which plays more like dirt than any other synthetic) it was him simply not being in top form and getting beat by World class horses.....As far as the drop in handle. Are there any industries in the Country that are not seeing double digit drops in revenue? No surprise in the pick-6 coming up short of the gurantee. Bank roles had been drained by a day and a half of racing(plus large NY carryover earlier in the week). Seems most people went after a more plausible pick 4 play rather that taking a swing a diffucult(not for Mr. Crist)pick 6.
Posted by Mike G Oct 26, 2008 3:09:47 PM
grassland says:
Great job with the Pick 6 Steve! I was one of the lucky 41 qualifyers in the Capital OTB promotion. Thanks for putting in the necessary time in to construct a great ticket.
Posted by Grassland Oct 26, 2008 1:58:16 PM
jcp says:
Some thoughts...Steve...How much much would you have invested if you weren't "forced" to bet 5K and would you have still hit?.....TV coverage is obviously slanted toward the people who watch the BC and TC races and not the regular bettors, payoffs and willpays are an afterthought...Curlin best horse on dirt, not the best on turf or poly, so what?....Frankel pointed out yesterday 5 horses broke down at DelMar this summer, 1 at Saratoga...
Posted by jcp Oct 26, 2008 1:32:17 PM
dick_w says:
Review of B C weekend...
For me, it was overall an enjoyable weekend of racing. I did terrible betting wise on Friday mostly due to Heart Shaped's loss by a nostril in the Juv. Filly Turf. Had she won it would have made my day. Following that race I was trying way too hard to beat legitimate favorites. I bounced back on Sat hitting the marathon (I was salivating to bet Muhannak in that one), the Juv. Turf and the Turf. I completely overlooked the Euros in the classic, as did many other folks given their juicy overlayed prices.
Another difference in the 2 days for me was that I stayed at my local OTB all day on Friday (my bad day) and Sat I only stayed for the first 2 races, made my bets and went home to watch on t v. I think my bets were more logical when I made them without benefit of the odds. Having said that, I also did not give myself the opportunity to catch the overlays such as mentioned above on the Euros in the classic. I am not certain I would have bet them anyway, but I might have given those generous prices ?
As to the handle, it is my opinion that the decline is more due to the economic times than to a reaction to the sythetic surface. Steve, maybe you could give us the results of the handle for the Belmont meet this year compared to last and we can also look at the handle for the Churchill meet that starts today. I think that would help clear up that question.
Posted by Dick W Oct 26, 2008 12:13:27 PM
jrzingg says:
As far as the breeders cup-let'em run it in europe from now on
Posted by jrzingg Oct 26, 2008 12:11:00 PM
bernard_downes says:
Steven, Many thanks for the URL info. Hope you don't mind a Breeders Cup view from across the pond, but I find the anti-European views of some of the comments both disappointing and surprising. 4 of the 5 Euro winners were also racing on an entirely new surface. As I have said elsewhere the European racing authorities have no real influence, otherwise at least one of the Breeders Cup 'World Championships' would have taken place in Europe. You know, we really are quite civilised over here, and quite welcoming to visitors.
Face up to it and stop wingeing, dirt racing is dead or dying and the racing handicapper will simply have to adjust their strategies.
By the way, Zarkava not Curlin is the horse of the year. Curlin has never once been on his game since Dubai.
Regards - Bernard
Posted by Bernard Downes Oct 26, 2008 12:10:04 PM
skelly says:
Steve - Congrats on the Pick 6!!!! You are indeed King!
For curiosity sake, would I be able to find out what the Pick 6 payout would be if Curlin would of won the Classic?
Posted by Skelly Oct 26, 2008 11:42:04 AM
gofor_broke says:
I like the 2 days of BC races. Using a fake dirt track creates some betting opportunities. But for year end honors, Ventura never won a dirt race and Indian Blessing was excellent sprinting on dirt. If you believe dirt matters, voting for a grass miler as dirt sprint champion F or M is crazy.
Sunday was Baffert and Euros, and the best horse in the world is probably the Arc winner.
Posted by gofor broke Oct 26, 2008 11:29:15 AM
hammer says:
I hit the exacta in the Classic but was shocked by how little it paid. Was anyone else surprised by this?
Posted by hammer Oct 26, 2008 11:20:03 AM
evan_gewirtz says:
Steve,
I admit to having an anti- synthetic bias. However, I am not some zealotous fool.
Objectively, yesterday was a terrible day for American racing. The American Breeding industry took a bigger hit yesterday than the stock market. Further proliferation of the synthetifarce could cripple the American breeding indusry. They have got to be shaking in their horseshoes.
American turf horses were once again exposed as being inferior to the European turf horses. American dirt horses were almost uniformly awful on the synthetifarce and even American synthetic runners did not fair well against European turf horses on the synthetiface.
The notion that we were deciding dirt championships yesterday is utterly laughable.
Handle was markedly down. I know the BC spokesperson will blame the economy, and while the economy certainly was a factor in the decline, surely they will know that it doesn't account for the steep declines from the Churchill 06 BC.
I hope you DVR'ed the end of the Classic and the wrap-up. Frank Sronach, who I believe deserves a lot of respect for the amount of money and time he puts into horse racing, looked troubled by what he had just witnessed on the racetrack. As a Canadien and American breeder and owner he had to be sickened.
Lastly, perhaps one of the most rediculous and sad commentaries on yesterdays debacle was provided by one of the talking heads from ABC/ESPN as Jerry Bailey looked on, in what I believed to be, disbelief. The talking head said, and I am paraphasing, last year we had a breakdown in the slop at Monmouth in the classic, at least this year the synthetic track kept the horses safe. That was the best he could come up with after watching the failure of the American horses over the synthetifarce.
Posted by Evan Gewirtz Oct 26, 2008 11:16:50 AM
drewclearwhenroused says:
I want to thank Steve for encouraging me to purchase his exotic betting and other books during the summer when there was that big 40% discount. I am an avid fan and player who lives in a state(NC) where pari-mutuel wagering is prohibited so I must drive to VA to a wonderful simulcast facility (NYCOTB should take a lesson) to get down on any action. Primarily a win bettor, pck 4 player with some action bets here and there. Well Steve the book just plain helps you through the process of Ticket Making which as many can sympathize can be a bettors downfall. But the multiple ticket approach is absolutely the way to go. It allows for opinions to be weighted and Steves explanation is clear and concise. As a player who has hit many pick 4's in the 300-700 dollar range and been alive to 15-18K (only to be knocked out by a horse I liked but couldn't afford), this methodology is terrific for a small bankroll (300-500 for the BC). So as I constructed my tickets Thursday day night for yesterday's early pck 4 play one of my two tickets looked like this because I loved Albertus Maximus and really thought that either Midshipman or Bushranger would win so the ticket looked like this
1,2,5,7,9/7/4,5,11/11,12, AWESOME!!! Of course Desert Code was the key but his price of 36-1 was so inflated for a horse who had performed well in the past over the course. So Thanks to the book Steve and thanks to all who post here it is a great environment to grow as a horsefan and player....I'm off to Va to get my dough!!!!
Posted by Drewclearwhenroused Oct 26, 2008 10:44:07 AM
bill_m says:
Steve, Regarding my last post: I realize I was comparing the $1 pick four will pay to the $2 win parlay($2875), but with no winning favorites, I felt like the $2 pick four should have paid more than it did. Damn, too much coffee this morning. See ya.
Posted by Bill M Oct 26, 2008 10:44:02 AM
dave_schabell says:
Denman and Durkin are both great race callers - they are the voice of our sport!
Great day of racing expect for the incredibly horrible video of the races themselves. This is one time that I wish they had used a sub-line of chicklets so that we at simulcast facilities actually knew what horses we were looking at during the course of the race.
Congrats to all who scored today. I felt that this was one time where we veteran horseplayers had a real edge on the "weekend warriors" and were handsomely rewarded.
Posted by Dave Schabell Oct 26, 2008 10:43:02 AM
david_m_pass says:
William Farish Jr, the chairman of the Breeders' Cup, said the success of the European horses is "tremendously important" in continuing the Breeders' Cup as a truly international event. I guess that means that the "win and they're in" in the US has little meaning ? That ALL the US prep races where the sport tries to showcase the US breeding and sport will more often than not lead to dissapointment on the USA's biggest racing day ? What are they trying to create? The Breeders' Cup executives will certainly be VERY welcome in Europe, but the US breeding and racing industry is sure to suffer. Maybe we should race Right Handed....they've already demonstrated they are going in the wrong direction anyway.
Posted by David M. Pass Oct 26, 2008 10:31:28 AM
hud says:
as synthetic tracks become more prevalent (unfortunately) am wondering if Curlin's loss will negatively affect his breeding situation and ultimately the breed...will some breeders be leary of breeding to Curlin based on a belief that the 'market' will be looking for sires that ran well on synthetic tracks...anybody have any thoughts on that issue?
Posted by hud Oct 26, 2008 10:30:56 AM
allen_klayman says:
Not only did the Pick 6 pool fail to reach the 3 Million mark, they also delayed the post of the fourth race by about 6 minutes in a shameless display to try to reach the mark. As if the horses weren't on the track long enough to begin with, they were forced to wait on the fake dirt, which at the time the tempurature was measured at about 140 degrees and was radiating so much heat the the riders were complaining about being able to keep them and their mounts comfortable during the post parade. But I am sure the Aviolo will just put some spin on the situation and blame it on a starting gate malfunction or something similar.
Posted by Allen Klayman Oct 26, 2008 10:15:58 AM
big_daddy says:
It's amazing what Curlin has done in his career with a below average jockey on his back. With the move to Synthetic, there was no margin for error. Albarado had him too far back off a moderate pace and then he moved too early. Curlin is a grinder, not a swooper. The comparisons to Zenyatta, Stardom Bound, and others who used the wide rally on the ttic insulation are not appropriate. As it stands now, Zenyatta gets a slim nod for HOTY.
Posted by big daddy Oct 26, 2008 9:46:01 AM
davie_florida_nick says:
Congrats on the Pick 6 and thanks for letting us root along.
All the conversation on this site and every where else in the USA regarding racing surfaces are moot points. If you want to truly know the future someone needs to ask the Czar of Racing or should I say the Sheik. Very shortly all racing issues shall be decided in Dubai.
I'd rather him deciding than the clowns that do it now.
Posted by davie florida nick Oct 26, 2008 9:35:35 AM
larry_thiel says:
Let's not over do the Jackson did it for the fans bit.
The continued legal battle over the horse may have made purses in hand a more attractive prospect than breeding rights that a crazy judge might do anything with, considering the right of first refusal clause.
Posted by Larry Thiel Oct 26, 2008 9:34:12 AM
c says:
miccay,
I'm with you all the way-- and even have a head-start on you. I didn't bet a single red cent on ANYTHING this weekend. I was even going to pick some other track for Saturday, but when I saw the weather forecast for the East, I ditched the whole plan. Why play? As it turns out, Belmont somehow remained on the turf. Figure that.
I'm glad I didn't participate in this Cup. I'm sorry, but 2 3YO Euro grass milers, neither of which have ever run 1 step beyond a mile, run 1-2 in the Classic, dusting the best 1 1/4 dirt horse we've seen in the last 25 years... what kind of result is that? Are these 2 considered better "Classic"-distance non-turf horses than Curlin? I'm just not buying it.
Hey everyone, IF you don't like the direction the Cup is taking and/or are against the foolish crusade to eliminate dirt racing in this country, do what I did-- DON'T SUPPORT IT AT THE WINDOWS. Take a stand. The people in charge are assuming 1 thing-- we all fit the stereotype. That is, we'll bet anything and are a bunch of degenerate gamblers addicted to the juice. Show them that you're not... resist the temptation to play the Cup for the sake of playing it. There are equally good money-making opportunities in this game 365 days a year. Think about it... how often do you see a $55K P6 payout? Several times a week? And that number is inflated because the guarantee wasn't met. Also, those other sequences are not as tough as yesterday's. How often do you see P3 and P4 payouts like yesterday's? Supers/tris? The prices were equivalent to a wild day at Belmont or catching a few bombs at Fairgrounds or Tampa, so where did all that extra "tourist" money really get you?
Posted by C Oct 26, 2008 7:01:06 AM
grasslover says:
Just some personal observations:
1. Can we quit this mega-hype over Casino Drive? Dead last speaks volumes, thank you.
2. Who really cares how bad the television coverage was? After all, as race fans do we really think we're going to get ace coverage when nothing in this sport goes right anymore?
3. Like others have said on the blog, brilliant talking heads will say it's the economy stupid, while refusing to understand there are many people like me who are tired of pencil eraser tracks, no colored saddle towels, troubles with phone account and internet wagering, and the fact that people are generally tired of the sport they grew up LOVING continually changing in less attractive and more ridiculous ways?
4. When I think of a BC turf sprint, I think along the lines of 5F, not running downhill, turning right, then turning left, then running across a strip of main track, only to go back to the turf.
5. Why was a F&M sprint run at 7F, and the main attraction sprint run at 6F? Talk about your maddening inconsistencies.
Thanks for my chance to rant. To anyone who had a good time and won money, congratulations. The BC did not get a penny of my $, and they won't get any next year, either. Call me yet one more fan who finds it hard to continue to be a horseplayer.
Posted by grasslover Oct 26, 2008 5:59:01 AM
chisox says:
As is tradition, a friend of mine came over to watch the Breeders Cup and the first words out of his mouth were: "if I went to the teletheater today I could be in on Crist's pic-6 play". Oh well, sucks to be him!. Great Job Steve!.
Posted by chisox Oct 26, 2008 5:03:21 AM
clown_show says:
These two days were easy for the west coast based horseplayer. The pro gambler who concentrates on west coast was all over it, including the non bc races. I'll be back to get more of your money in 365 days. While you were handicapping the belmont 1 million pick 6 on weds, i was already working on the BC card. Edge: me. See you next year.
Posted by clown show Oct 26, 2008 3:12:49 AM
bgt says:
Steve, can you provide us with the BC funding from stallion and foal nominations from U.S. breeders versus European breeders?
I'm guessing U.S. breeders mainly fund the BC so they might not be too happy with the BC doing their best to send the biggest chunk of purse earnings to Europe.
Frankie Dettori said: "The Pro-Ride is bringing the two countries together, Europe and America; it's becoming a level playing field"
Why should our "dirt" races be made into "level playing fields" for the turfers? What did they do to level the playing field of the turf races for our dirt horses?
Posted by BGT Oct 26, 2008 2:02:53 AM
walt says:
Like I said in the previous thread:
There is no way you can blame the drop in BC handle on the switch to a synthetic surface that more than played fair throughout the BC, and more importantly did not have any breakdowns over the two days. We are dealing with what is likely the worst economy in at least 35 years, and with many fears of what is to come, it is totally understandable that people are not betting like they would others (and it also didn't help that there was a $1 million carryover earlier this week at Belmont Park).
As for Curlin, he did the right thing going to Santa Anita for the BC even in losing, and two of the horses who beat Curlin were two heavily hyped Euros in Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator and the other, Tiago, needed a perfect trip to finish in front of him.
Curlin to me is still Horse of the Year unless Zenyatta were to come back in December and win the Hollywood Turf Cup, which would give her Grade 1 wins on both surfaces.
Posted by Walt Oct 26, 2008 12:31:35 AM
walt says:
To me, there is one way Zenyatta can get Horse of the Year, and that is to come back in the Hollywood Gold Cup (Grade 1, $250,000) at 1 1/2 Miles on turf December 6 and win that race impressively. An impressive enough win in that race on the grass over males might be enough in my opinion to overtake Curlin for Horse of the Year.
Posted by Walt Oct 26, 2008 12:19:35 AM
steven_berry says:
Like nearly everyone else, I've struggled to understand how Pro Ride affects the outcome at Santa Anita.
After watching European grass horses tear up the tote all day, I guess the fake dirt is really just astroturf.
I say, "Paint it green and call it the outer turf course."
Congratulations on your big score on the pick six!
Posted by Steven Berry Oct 25, 2008 11:52:48 PM
unitas says:
nolanwxman, can you really blame the loss entirely on the Pro-Ride surface? Curlin worked very well over the surface, and his running style is very different from the other horses you mentioned, who are all stone closers, which Curlin is not. He may not have loved the Pro-Ride surface, but I believe Albarado asked him too soon to make a big sweeping move on the turn, using too much horse while still having over an 1/8 of a mile to go. Curlin may have fared better if he were kept a little closer to the pace than he was today. I am not saying that he would have won, however the ride that he was given did not help his cause at all. If the connections were so concerned about his ability to handle the surface, they should have left him in the barn. Now he is open to ridicule, and his poor finish should rightfully cost him the HOTY balloting to Zenyatta. So now can it be said that Curlin can only win on dirt, not turf or synthetics? This loss has certainly opened a can of worms, and does tarnish the reputation of Curlin being the best horse in the world.
Posted by Unitas Oct 25, 2008 11:50:40 PM
cjdstable says:
Steve -- Nice hit! Congrats.
Between the camera angles and the saddlecloths, it was real tough to tell who was where. There is no reason whatsoever not to have the usual colored saddlecloths.
I posted on this blog after watching her nw1 win that Zenyatta was going to be a superstar -- it was nice watching that come to fruition.
I love Dettori -- obviously a top notch rider and it always looks like he's having fun. Has he ever attempted to ride a full meet in US?
Posted by cjdstable Oct 25, 2008 11:25:29 PM
jeff says:
Can anyone please explain to me how on the biggest days of horse racing there are we have to listen to Trevor Denman.
Has he taken over permantely for Durkin? Or just because it was at Santa Anita?
Tom D....you're the best !!!
Doremefasolatidoooooooooooo!!!
Posted by Jeff Oct 25, 2008 11:08:31 PM
evan_gewirtz says:
Steve,
SYNTHETIFARCE, Any owner or trainer folish enough to ship a dirt horse next year will deserve precisely what they get. Next year they should simply call it The Californians VS. The Europeans. The Californians can wear the white riding pants and the Europeans the black. Congratulations on your pick six score and for your charitable donation to the deserving Albany Teletheatre. By my estimation, just simply the P6 piggyback had to cost you 5k and your prices had to suffer all day. It truly was very sporting of you.
My decision to boycot BC 08
was a poor one from a financial standpoint as the results were very logical, however, I don't regret.
Posted by Evan Gewirtz Oct 25, 2008 10:54:46 PM
dave says:
I will never understand why the saddle cloths are all purple on the biggest betting day of the year. Can't someone with half a brain put an end to that and use colors, like they do the other 364 days of the year???
Posted by Dave Oct 25, 2008 10:25:38 PM
yuwipi says:
"The lions in their dens tremble at his approach."
After my own red ink day (moderate) I don't know whether to be more in awe of your handicapping job or the ticket construction. But 5 straight A's! Kudos. The $55k was a little juicier than I expected from my non P6 playing seat, but I'm always happy to see that.
Cocktails are for closers, it's Diet Coke for me as I sort my winners and losers.
Echoing callmetony above, I wager at a Catskill OTB facility and the place looked like a weekday. In many years past you couldn't get in the parking lot. Maybe that many folks are now wagering electronically. I'll have to check if I've been moved to the endangered species list.
Although I"m not wild about Tessitore (?), I always throughly enjoy the job Edwards, Moss, Bailey etc. do on the ESPN telecasts. Why the production people are obsessed with constantly tweaking the visual content I can't figure out, and it bugs me.
Didn't have a dime on him, but it was real nice to see Richie Migliore get a BC win on Desert Code. And finally, everyone came back standing and riding which is a big relief.
Posted by yuwipi Oct 25, 2008 9:50:44 PM
rickhf says:
Oh, I forgot..
Since you mentioned Belmont's mandatory Pick-6, remember that tomorrow is the last day for the Oak Tree/Santa Anita meet. Carryover pools in the Pick-6 and High-5 as well.
Posted by rickhf Oct 25, 2008 9:47:51 PM
rickhf says:
According to the pools at TVG.com, that 4th race saw Kip Deville [126k], Goldivoka [170k] and Whatsthescript [125k] in a 775K place pool.
Everyone else varied from 25K to 70K. Might just an advantage to having so much in the pool?
So Curlin did not win the Classic. Good thing I didn't go to the OTB and put in a lot of money on him.
And I like the tradition of the same colored saddlecloths. I think that they should use them ONLY for the Breeders Cup, and for other traditional purposes like the big three at Saratoga [Whitney, Alabama and Travers]. Other than that, colored saddlecloths are needed. But if they are going to use the same colored, use a split screen so people can at least see who's on top.
Only 4.3 million in the win pool on what is supposed to be the BIGGEST race of the year. It always surprises me when the Kentucky Derby can get 5 times more in the Win Pool. You'd think a day of champions such as the Breeders Cup would at least get half of that money.. for being such a marquee event.
But I guess not.
Congrats, Steve, on your Pick-6 win, and congrats to those who shared in his win.
Posted by Rickhf Oct 25, 2008 9:35:58 PM
flipper_dawson says:
A bad weekend in the Breeders Cup.
On Friday, I went on a feeding binge of Pik 3's and Pik 4's.
Here is how it all started. On Friday, I noticed that one of the top handicappers had a free play on BC action.
I clicked on the free link, and guess what??
I got all the picks for both days in the BC.FREE!!!Someone made a mistake and let all picks go for free. The normal price was $50.00. Not worth a singer's ass, as none won.
Well, if this is all Racing Digest can offer, they should go into therapy.
Not one of the picks came in.
However, not all is lost. I talked to an racing expert in Arizona and he showed me where I went wrong.
He showed me, and i checked it out and yes, it made a lot of sense.
In the meantime, I'll switch back to my own filly who detests (rubber tracks), and is at home at WAL-MART.
I don't need the crap that SA shovels into my mouth.
They can go and XXXXX themselves.
I'm hope I'm not the forebearer of bad news, but right now, if I had a choice, between the Curlin horse, and my PERSONAL Filly and the CHICKEN POT PIE she cooks up, it's no contest.
MEMO__ to STICH-- I can't make it this weekend--I can't take your low percentage of winners.(0 for 19 in the BC.)
When you pick up your win%, by all means call me.
Perhaps, but not likely, we can do business.
Posted by Flipper Dawson Oct 25, 2008 9:31:39 PM
rick says:
c'mon david,
my guess is that you're poo-pooing curlin's connections because you used curlin in most of your bets. "what a shame", "sold him out", it's a horse race! i could understand you being a bit frustrated if there wasn't the pre-existing notion that he wouldn't take to this surface anyway. we all knew it was possible, so did you. the connections showed gamesmanship, bet appropriately...think of this situation as being akin to asking a girl out that's clearly out of your league, you'll never know until you try. now they know
nice score steve, proving me wrong alot this year when it comes to caveman vs non-caveman style plays
cheers!
Posted by rick Oct 25, 2008 9:31:36 PM
bob_m says:
steve,
congrats on the score..
i think the euros and the poly crap horses will dominate again next year.. it is a shame..
tv coverage awful, but i expected that.. they force you to stop watching the race and just try to find your horse, and as soon as you do they cut to another view and you are lost again..
i won early in day with the maximus exacta with rebellion and hit the last race at santa anita with 11-1 shot in the turf stakes to finish well up..
i was at toms river otb friday. not as much a crowd as i would expect..
internet wagering was a mess. went back to calling in for the rest of the day.
Posted by bob m. Oct 25, 2008 9:30:00 PM
dennis says:
Well just to reiterate: Congratulations Steve on your pick 6 ticket. It was a great 2 days of racing (made even better since I wound up in the black). Now a little bit of melancholy sets in while we wait for some horses to bloom and whet our appetites for the next crop. It's been a most interesting year that has been enhanced greatly by this blog. Thank you Steve!
Posted by Dennis Oct 25, 2008 9:21:33 PM
ralph_conte says:
Great score, steve. Was alive in the late pick 4 with your picks but singled curlin. Had a better day Friday then today. Thanks for all you do for us bettors that follow you.Your the king.
Posted by ralph conte Oct 25, 2008 9:20:41 PM
dud_dew says:
Nice comeback, Kid. Washed away the bad taste for disparaging the NY turf filly
2's for their less-than-stellar times slogging thru the Grillo? You and Watchmaker and ESL Illman continue to assign too much 'definition" to a single performance by a young horse (remember all the angst over War Pass, based on the fragile assumption he was at teen-age three the same beast a very few races suggested he was at cute and cuddly two?:-)- I cashed a very nice contrarian ticket with NY and "less-than-first rate" British horses boxed on Friday, assuming the real chance at least one would like a firmer, sunnier course. I had the $75 turf sprint turnbacker today (much the same thought process as your public one) and finally got really well when convinced that Steve A., in an interview around 2 PM, had little confidence in Curlin's chances - so threw him out of the exacta, and won with the Brits, again. On Friday night, I reminded myself that guys like you have to sometimes be quick and ruthless to put together multiple race tickets (forbidden my lousy ticker), and make very difficult choices to create something of reasonable price. And, wow, did you show that superb and particular skill on Saturday! Well done....
Posted by dud dew Oct 25, 2008 9:16:07 PM
don_reed says:
Call Me Tony: I was at MEA today, too, and you're right. Like someone stated here a couple of days ago, there wasn't any pre-BC "buzz."
Congrats to Rich Dutrow, who once again dishonored the racing world with his boorish compliments about women trainers, heard on national TV.
(Carla Gaines was in the parking lot slashing his tires. Imagine what we'd have to listen to if Big Brown had run and won.)
Way to go, Steve! Can we see a Flying Dismount? No? Why not?
How many Furlong Franks can $55,000 buy? We'll soon know.
And all the horses and jockeys came home safe. Did PETA happen to notice?
2009 Derby Watch begins...NOW.
Posted by Don Reed Oct 25, 2008 9:14:32 PM
micclay says:
I attended every Breeders Cup since 1988, save last and this year.
I live in Connecticut, go everyday at Saratoga and am writing this post from Newport Beach, CA.
Bet a modest few $$ today from my hotel room and was ++ for the day.
Leaving on a cruise tomorrow thru the Panama Canal to San Juan. Booked the cruise in February. Refused to pay the BC $300 for terrible seats when the tickets came out in May.
I'm done with the BC, probably including any on line betting.
BC has sold the game out to kiss up to the Europeans and the artifical turf, where more horses have been put down at Santa Anita than Saratoga.
Vote where it hurts. Don't bet. Resist the desire to steal 'easy money' with the BC odds and payoffs. We need to take the sport back.
Jesse Jackson had the best interview I have heard in years, where he finished his ESPN interview with he raced Curlin this year because he owed it to the fans. When was the last time you heard anyone say they owed the fans anything?
Posted by Micclay Oct 25, 2008 9:06:40 PM
mlnj says:
Please spare us the Trevor bashers. His calls are great. When you understand what he's doing, it's fun to listen to him trying to predict the outcome of the race as soon as he can. Sure he's going to get some wrong when he call a horse like Curlin on the turn. but at least he doesn't get it wrong at the end. The Durkin can-do-no-wrong folks might listen to his call of Thursday's 8th at Belmont, and then have a look at the chart. (Don't get me wrong. I think Durkin is pretty good, but the idea that Denman is a blind fool by comparison is absurd.)
Posted by ml/nj Oct 25, 2008 9:03:46 PM
pat_hobby says:
The continued whining about the surface is incredible on this board. Steve said it, the best horses by and large won the last two days.
And get used to synthetic because in 10 years all the tracks will have it.
Posted by Pat Hobby Oct 25, 2008 8:55:52 PM
micclay says:
Breeders Cup observations:
First, I made a profit today though not life altering:
ESPN's Joe T is an [not my favorite announcer].
Liked the blimp overhead camera. Really showed the holes opening and closing and the horses moving sideways as well as forward.
The Breeders' Cup could care less about the betting fan. They have sold out to the European's to get their continued participation in the BC.
- As Steve Amussuen said after the Classic, 'It was a Turf Race'.
- Explains why they gave the BC to Santa Anita for two years.
- Magna will/needs to declare bankruptcy in the next two weeks.
- 5 horses have been put down at Santa Anita in the last 4 weeks....
My typical day at the track is betting between $400 - $500. Today was $170 and I think I bet more than I wanted to!
Posted by Micclay Oct 25, 2008 8:55:11 PM
eric_banks says:
wonderful job, Steve--both from the standpoint of writing and handicapping. My two cents are that it was disgraceful for the BC poobahs to deprive the television public of the greatness of Zenyatta. Will this have any effect on her potential as horse of the year? I hope not, but fear it may be the case. It is abominable enough to rename the race "Ladies Classic", but the decision not to run it on Saturday might prove deadly!
Posted by Eric Banks Oct 25, 2008 8:33:22 PM
callmetony says:
hey Steve Fantastic Job . That was a nice hit . My day was down then up then down again ...
The lack of crowd where I go the meadowlands was mind blowing . Where were all the bettors ? Is it the economy the lack of interest in racing or santa Anitas fake track. I for the life of me couldn;t believe it . You would have thought it was any sat .
That plus the Fact that the Telecast was so awful. with the silks all the same color and the camera being so far away and no posting of leaders until they reached the half pole no one and I mean no one had any idea where their horses were at any time in the race . I still have no idea where Well armed was in that race !!!!! The whole thing was just a disgrace on someones part . Everyone was complaining about the feed and the lack of knowing who was where in the race . Last year and any year before the place was packed . After seeing todays BC next year still @ SA I think there will be even less interest . Just a shame they can't ever get it right .
Posted by Callmetony Oct 25, 2008 8:25:58 PM
david_scheff says:
the owners of Curlin sold him out, they had nothing to gain by running him in this race after big brown scratched. They took the best dirt horse in the world and comprimised his legacy on a surface he clearly would not take to, they should have retired him after he hit 10 million, or run his last race on dirt in Tokyo, what a shame.
Posted by David Scheff Oct 25, 2008 8:23:14 PM
bjchapin1 says:
Congrats on your hit Steve.
Can you put up the handle figures as you did on Friday, just curious how the numbers shook out. Personally I thought today was pretty underwhelming, I blame the 2 days of action that dilutes things. On the other hand, the Jackson St OTB in the Chicago loop (my home base) was as crowded as Derby day yesterday afternoon, so maybe there's something to be said for Friday BC racing.
Posted by bjchapin1 Oct 25, 2008 8:15:56 PM
silver_charm says:
Curlin this year is like Alysheba was in his HOY.
And Personal Ensign was undefeated that year also.
Big Brown finishes third.
This is not even close.
Posted by Silver Charm Oct 25, 2008 8:12:21 PM
nolanwxman says:
Congrats to you Steve! I filled out matrixes for both days and but couldn't string together a bunch of A's. Hence, two deposits and no withdrawls to my online account.
Posted by Nolanwxman Oct 25, 2008 7:45:31 PM
nolanwxman says:
Hey Unitas,
Did Stardom move too soon? How about Zenyatta? How about Midnight Lute? Albarado gave Curlin the exact same trip. Blame the Pro Ride but not the ride. And next time, quit whining!
Posted by Nolanwxman Oct 25, 2008 7:37:04 PM
horserun says:
although the racing was enjoyable to WATCH it was not bettable, imo...lets hope the pinheads got what they wanted , our best horse , and in the world, getting blown past in the stretch like he was standing still by a 3YO TURF MILER .....good job by all involved, THE EUROPEANS WIN, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
PS before anyone calls me a sore loser, i had the exacta, had no clue but just boxed the europeans as i posted here that i would...
Posted by horserun Oct 25, 2008 7:35:26 PM
medi_in_ny says:
Great day from start to finish. Way to go Steve! And now back to basics at Belmont on Sunday for the final day of the Fall Meet. All The Best ~Medi
Posted by Medi In NY Oct 25, 2008 7:29:34 PM
dale_tillotson says:
Leaving out the out of country hosses was a mistake on my part this weekend. Would someone remind me in about 330 days to study them closer and not throw them out on the fake surface.congrats steve on the pk 6 hit. great job.
Posted by dale tillotson Oct 25, 2008 7:26:39 PM
dick_w says:
You did it !!! Congratulations on a superb job of both handicapping and ticket construction.
And congratulations to the Euros...they dominated.
Posted by Dick W Oct 25, 2008 7:21:18 PM
rob says:
Steve,
You are indeed the KING of the Pick6! I was one the lucky Albany customers who got a share of your Pick6!!!!!!! What's amazing is that well over 200 people were eligible for this contest and to lock your position, all you had to do was show up at the Teletheatre in Albany before the first leg went off. Only 40 people showed up! So it turned out to be a great score!
One question...what was the total score with consos?
Thanks alot,
Rob
Posted by Rob Oct 25, 2008 7:19:31 PM
gofor_broke says:
Steve, that was a great job of handicapping and putting a ticket together. I thought Curlin was a total bet against on this surface as a big favorite. But the result of the Classic was tough to hit. You made it look easy by nailing 5 A's. I also thought Fabulous Strike didn't figure, but the Lute was ready today.
Well done.
And that's the key. When you toss a Curlin, you need to construct a good ticket. You had him as your only A or B. That shows how strong you are at putting a Pick 6 ticket together.
Posted by gofor broke Oct 25, 2008 7:17:48 PM
unitas says:
Steve, you are The King! Great score once again...Is there any doubt that Zenyatta is the Horse of the Year? I don't think so.
Posted by Unitas Oct 25, 2008 7:16:24 PM
samg says:
I'll go along with Jessica and yes,she picked some winners at Fairgrounds this spring,I wouldn't know about Arlington.As I suspected Curlin runs out of the money against a field he'd thrash on dirt but I didn't like Midnight Lute either so I probably wouldn't have made money anyway.
Great job Steve,congrats.
Posted by SamG Oct 25, 2008 7:15:24 PM
slewofdamascus says:
That was a clinic. Thanks for letting us witness it!
See you next year.
Posted by slewofdamascus Oct 25, 2008 7:13:52 PM
unitas says:
I was screaming at the top of the stretch that Albarado moved too soon on Curlin, and that is exactly what I feel had happened...Albarado panicked, chasing cheap speed, and took Curlin ridiculously wide. Ravens Pass may have been better today, and Curlin may not have beaten him(or Henrythenavigator and Tiago), however, Albarado's amatuerish-like ride did not help the cause at all. Also loss a lot of respect for Aaron Gryder today, making a fool of himself on ABC/ESPN introducing jockeys for a few of the races, and then riding Well Armed as poorly as you can ride an odds-on choice in the BC Mile today. Embarrasing. Yes I sound bitter, this is because I was alive on a sizeable pick-4 ticket to Curlin. Oh well, what are you gonna do? Europeans dominated today.
Posted by Unitas Oct 25, 2008 7:09:55 PM
silver_charm says:
Nice pop Steve. Lucky for you Curlin was not 3-1.
As I said he was even money to hit the board.
Posted by Silver Charm Oct 25, 2008 7:09:17 PM
ray_manley says:
Steve,
Congrats on a great pick 6 score.
Posted by Ray Manley Oct 25, 2008 7:08:35 PM
tk says:
Congrats, Steve! Sweet payoff. The teletheatre folks in Albany must be going crazy!
Posted by TK Oct 25, 2008 7:07:11 PM
sedonia says:
congrats on the pick6 hit steve! Should pay generously with Raven's Pass in there.
Posted by Sedonia Oct 25, 2008 7:02:09 PM
dick_w says:
Great job Steve !!! Good luck in the classic. The only horse I think can beat you is the 12.
Posted by Dick W Oct 25, 2008 6:52:04 PM
gregb says:
Steven,
Check out the video coverage at breederscup.com - they may show the Will Pays.
Good Luck!
-GregB
Posted by GregB Oct 25, 2008 6:43:07 PM
mlnj says:
Exciting to be following your ticket(s) while I'm getting hosed here in NJ. Good luck!
Posted by ml/nj Oct 25, 2008 6:40:33 PM
davie says:
Thank you. I used Conduit in my p3 and p4 because of you, as I was not a believer. I am now. Thank you, thank you thank you.
Posted by Davie Oct 25, 2008 6:27:44 PM
medi_in_ny says:
Yeah Steve! My husband just cliped a nice superfecta in Race 8 and now we are really cheering you home, just alittle bit louder than before ^0^. What a great day of racing!
Posted by Medi In NY Oct 25, 2008 6:27:23 PM
tom_d says:
Trevor has got to go! Great call for the turf. He declared Eagle Mountain was going to win at the top of the stretch. We want Durkin.
Posted by TOM D. Oct 25, 2008 6:15:05 PM
Comments to this entry are closed.
About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
