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April 27, 2008 - May 3, 2008

Crist Blog | May 03, 2008

Derby Day Live

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11:40 am: Happy Derby Day. It's not raining at Churchill but the two inches of rain that pelted the track yesterday and early this morning have left the track officially "sloppy," though it looked more like "drying-out muddy" for the first race. Track crews worked on the track all night, squeezing water out of it, and it was closed for training this morning. The forecast calls for a cloudy day with perhaps some more rain rolling in between 4 and 6 p.m. today. Post time for the Derby is 6:07 p.m.

The clouds aren't the only shroud over this Derby. The disputes among tracks, horsemen and account-wagering companies that are shutting some customers out of betting the Derby card are simply disgraceful, perhaps the nadir of this industry's dysfunctionality. There are legitimate issues regarding simulcast and ADW pricing that need to be addressed, but Derby Week is not the time for a protracted game of chicken that shuts customers out of the year's most popular race.

The day's first race went to favored Biker Boy, scratched from a six-furlong N1x on the Oaks card in order to stretch out to a mile even though he had to jump a condition to run in this N2x. Biker Boy, a Came Home 3-year-old who won a maiden race with a Beyer of 95 at Gulfstream March 16, drew off impressively, getting the mile in 1:34.16 for Fox Hill/Zito/Bejarano. He was one of three I used in a little $216 caveman early pick-4 play designed primarily to keep me otherwise out of trouble until the stakes action starts in the 5th. There are four pick-4's on today's card -- 1-4, 3-6, 7-10 and 9-12 -- as well as a no-carryover all-stakes pick-six starting with the 5th and ending with the Derby.

Here's an unfirewalled version of my Derby "picks" column that ran in the Saturday paper and which I can't seem to locate on the site:

Download cris050308.doc

My plan is to play the Derby mostly through the multirace bets rather than getting too involved in intrarace Derby bets. I'm a Big Brown fan but can neither bet him at 5-2 nor play against him. I might make a token play on my third and fourth choices behind Big Brown and Pyro, Tale of Ekati and Monba, at big prices. I just can't get involved in the superfectas, especially at a dollar rather than dime minimum.

One bad wagering omen: It took me 10 minutes and six tries to get my early pick-four bets to go through online at NYRA One. I really shouldn't be getting "We are currently experiencing technical difficulty with this application" error messages at 10:45 a.m. on Derby Day.

11:58 am: Lenawee ($34.60) won the second in 1:10.19 for six furlongs in a 3F N1x where the first quarter was run in a blistering 20.90 seconds. She was one of my three and I expected 6-1 rather than 16-1, so I'll be in good shape if I can get either First Defence or Spin Master home in the third.

Tony Kornheiser on ESPN2 just said that Big Brown "is owned by UPS." Just for the record, he is owned by IEAH Stables, which bough a majority interest in him from Paul Pompa, a retired trucking executive whose company did a lot of business with UPS.

12:15 pm: First Defence ($4.20) outduels Spin Master early and holds off Forest Attack late to win the 3rd in 1:22.21 in his first start since finishing 7th at 5-2 in the Vosburgh last Septemeber. The 4-year-old Unbridled's Song-Honest Lady colt was second to Hard Spun in the G1 King's Bishop last fall. I'm alive to "all" in the final leg for a buck (3x3x2x12), so I'll be rooting for the longest shot on the board.

The sun appears to be shining bright on the old Kentucky home. The track was upgraded from "sloppy" to "good" after the second, and it's now been upgraded to "fast" for the fourth.

Completely forgot to bet the 3-6 pick-four. The early races seem to fly by on Derby Day before the pace slows down. The first four races on the card are run in a 1 hour and 40 minute window, which stretches out to over 3 hours by the time you get to 8 through 11.

No pick-4 probables on TV or NYRA One.

12:45 pm Some thoughts on the upcoming undercard stakes:

Churchill Downs H. (G2): This seven-furlong stakes failed to attract any of the nation's top sprinters; not one of the top 10 sprinters on the Watchmaker Watch is in the race, and Noonmark is the only graded-stakes winner in the field. I have no quarrel with Noonmark, but he hasn't won beyond six furlongs and his biggest race was on a much sloppier track than this. I'd have to go four-deep in this spot, with Noonmark; Elite Squadron, who will try to wire them from the rail and might get loose; Thousand Words, who's trying dirt for the first time but was excellent beating Niko Bay on the grass two back; and Spotsgone, a classic turnback who should be a fat price.

La Troienne (G3): This 3-year-old filly test came up very strong on talent if not accomplishment and features three fillies who have already run triple-digit Beyers: Secret Gypsy (100), unraced since setting a (short-lived) Saratoga track record in her debut last summer; Informed Decision (101), a huge winner at Keeneland last out [late scratch]; and Alina (100), turning back off a second to Eight Belles in the Fantasy. I'll focus on Alina and Game Face, who has "only" run a 97 but was visually impressive earning that fig in the Old Hat and now turns back off a decent second to Bsharpsonata.

1:04 pm: This is why I usually have contempt for hitting the "all" button: Alive to all in the pick-4, I of course managed to get a favorite home as 7-2 Cherokee Artist beat 22-1 Scibelli to win the fourth and complete a $2287.40 for $2 sequence that amounted to a 9-2 return on investment. A victory by the second choice was actually the worst possible result since I would have scratched into an extra buck of it with the favorite due to the late scratch of Premium Gold. Oh well. Cherokee Artist, a second-time starter for Graham Motion, ran the mile and a sixteenth in 1:43.19 in the day's first two-turn race.

Nice touch parading Curlin on the track between the 4th and 5th races. The reigning Horse of the World looks terrific. Where he races this fall is going to be a huge story once the Triple Crown is over. Trainer Steve Asmussen is not eager to run him on a synthetic track, if that's what Santa Anita stays with, and suggested in a radio interview with Mark Cusano last week that he was considering options other than the Breeders' Cup Classic, perhaps including the Arc de Triomphe.

1:39 pm: Elite Squadron ($10.80) indeed got loose in the Churchill Downs Handicap, leading all the way in 1:21.53. The 4-year-old Officer colt was beaten a head at 38-1 by Rebellion in the last jump of the Commonwealth at Keeneland last time out. Noonmark was along for second with Hewitts third and Thousand Words fifth after some trouble around the turn.

1:56 pm: Through the first three races, betting is up slightly over last year's totals to this point, at $6.89 million vs. $6.63 million. I'll update the comparison below (blue type means bigger pool this year, red type means a decline) as time permits throughout the day. The comparison is clouded by different account-wagering shutout issues in both years, with different sets of customers prevented from betting through their usual accounts in 2007 and 2008.

2:25 pm: I got Game Face home at 9-5 but barely deserved it, as she got a dream trip and ride under John Velazquez, who was winning his third straight. Game Face tucked in behind dueling Secret Gypsy and Keep the Peace, snuck through at the rail when Secret Gypsy bore out in upper stretch, and barely lasted over a very resolute Keep the Peace, who I hadn't liked but was the moral victress. Game Face, a 3-year-old Menifee filly, ran the 7 1/2 furlongs in 1:28.44 for Zabeel/Pletcher.

Alina's fourth-place finish, couple with Pure Clan's 5 1/4-length defeat in yesterday's Oaks, casts some doubt on the strength of Eight Belles's performance in the Fantasy, where she beat Alina and Pure Clan by only 1 1/4 lengths.

Alive in 5-6-7 pick-3's to Danzon, Ventura and Dreaming of Anna.

2:52 pm: Thoughts on three upcoming stakes before the Derby:

G3 Distaff Turf Mile (race 7): No telling how soft the turf really is until they run the day's first turf race here. Dreaming of Anna is a legit favorite off her 7-for-9 grass record, a sensational blowout victory at Tampa last time out and a proven fondness for soft turf, but she could face a compromising early challenge from Bayou's Lassie, New Edition or the hopeless VIP Princess, winner of the "I want a free table on Derby Day" contest among today's entries. So I used closers Ventura and Danzon along with the fave.

G1 Humana Distaff H. (race 8): You won't get the same fat 7-1 on Hystericalady that you did last year, but even at 2-1 I like her to beat co-favorite Sugar Swirl. Obviously the 2-3-4 finishers from last year's BC Filly Sprint (Miraculous Miss, Miss Macy Sue and Baroness Thatcher) can all compete here, and of those I slightly prefer Miss Macy Sue.

G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (race 9): Kind of a spotty turnout for a Grade 1 in a division with no clear leader beyond Kip DeVille up to a mile. Einstein, second to Kip in the Maker's Mark last time out, will appreciate the extra furlong and is the one to beat. Out of Control, Thorn Song and Artiste Royale are logical alternatives but just aren't supposed to beat Einstein if he runs his A race.

Through the first half of the card, betting is up 16 percent over last year, at $22.07 million vs. $19.01 million.

3:20 pm: The Distaff Turf Mile makes three straight grass stakes at Churchill where an improbable front-runner has lasted on the lead with no one making an impact from off the pace. Zee Zee and Tizdejavu did it yesterday and Bayou's Lassie($26.20) did it just now in the G3 Distaff Turf Mile, leading Dreaming of Anna from box to wire. Dreaming of Anna conceded the early lead, looked ready to go by the 12-1 shot at any time, and never did. Bayou's Lassie, a 5-year-old Jacksorbetter Farm homebred mare by Outflanker, was making her first start since being switched from Christophe Clement to Dale Romans. She ran her opening half in 48.12 and the second half in 49.58 for a final time of 1:37.70. So much for the 7-10 pick four; maybe it's time to handicap the 11th and 12th so I can jump back in on the one that begins in race 9.

4:12 pm: Intangaroo became the first racehorse to win two U.S. Grade 1 stakes this year, following her 26-1 victory in the Santa Monica with a 14-1 triumph in the Humana Distaff. Both victories came at the expense of Hystericalady, who was fourth at 3-10 in the Santa Monica and third at 2-1 just now in the Humana.

Hystericalady had no excuses in the Santa Monica but ran her eyeballs out today. Stuck on the inside of a four-way duel through a half in 44.31, she won the battle and pulled clear after cutting the corner into the stretch, but understandably weakened left. Baroness Thatcher and Intagaroo($30.00) came at her in the final yards, with Intangaroo moving last and widest to score by a neck in 1:22.03. The 4-year-old Orientate filly, owned by Tom Grether and trained by Gary Sherlock, has won 4 of 11 career starts.

We're into the one-race-per-hour portion of the program that makes the Derby The Longest Day, as well as the Fastest Two Minutes, in sports. This is about when I'd usually go looking for one of those barbecued-beef sandwiches and the lemonade stand on the third floor of the Churchill clubhouse, and start reading the local newspapers to pass the time. I haven't had a wish-I-were-there twinge yet, but I'm expecting one when the horses come through the tunnel and onto the track for the Derby.

5:12 pm: Einstein really does seem like one of those rare horses with a will to win. Two starts back, he looked sure to be caught by Dancing Forever in the G1 GP Turf, and today it appeared that Out of Control would reel him in as the wire neared in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. Both times, Einstein dug in and gutted it out.

Einstein joined Intangaroo as the only dual G1 winners this year with his narrow victory. The 6-year-old Brazilian-bred horse by Spend a Buck, owned by Patricia Cunningham and Melissa Green and trained by Helen Pitts, became a millionaire with his 8th victory in 18 starts.

Derby time, and over to NBC from ESPN. I thought ESPN's coverage was generally strong, and did a nice job of serving both regular horseplayers and casual viewers. My only quibble is with their apparent theory that no stat nugget is too irrelevant to be repressed. Does anyone truly think it's germane that "No jockey has won the Derby after winning the Woodford Reserve, so history will have to be broken today for Robbie Albarado to win the Derby"?

I ended up using seven of them in the pick-4: Big Brown, Colonel John, Denis of Cork, Gayego, Monba. Pyro and Tale of Ekati. Think I'll make a seven-horse tri box for $210, just in case, plus a couple of small win bets on Tale of Ekati and Monba, and otherwise leave it alone. Einstein opened me up in the wide-open 11th and 12th so if I can make it through the Derby, I'll take my pick-4 chances.

Betting was up 16 percent year over year through the first six races today but the increase was down to 5 percent after nine races. There were sharp declines in most pools in races 7-9, perhaps due to a decrease in field sizes: Those three races had 10-horse fields last year and fields of just 7, 8 and 7 this year.

6:59 pm: The 134th Kentucky Derby will be remembered equally for Big Brown's glorious victory and the horror of Eight Belles's sudden death as she was pulling up after finishing second.

The two images are indelible: Big Brown pulling away through the stretch to win by nearly 5 in one of the most dominant Derby victories ever, vastly superior to even the best of his generation, toying with his more experienced rivals in just his fourth career start. Then moments later, after bravely continuing on to finish second, beating every other colt in the race, suddenly collapsing in a heap as she was slowing to a gallop around the far turn. According to Dr. Larry Bramlage, she shattered both front ankles, and had to be immediately euthanized.

It's hard to think beyond those two images and what else this Derby proved. The best horse won and he's something really special. The horses who had been posting slow speed figures all spring ran right to them. The ones trying to make a transition from synthetic surfaces to natural dirt fared poorly: Colonel John, the Santa Anita Derby winner, was a distant sixth, and Adriano and Monba, who came into the race off Polytrack victories in the Lane's End and Blue Grass, ran 19th and 20th.

The Big Brown-Eight Belles exacta paid $141.60, the trifecta with Denis of Cork was $3445.60 and the super adding Tale of Ekati in fourth returned $58,737.60 for $2. The winner's time was 2:01.82.

Time for a cocktail and two toasts -- to Big Brown, and to Eight Belles.

Posted by Steven Crist on May 3, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (115)

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Crist Blog | May 02, 2008

What the Will-pays Say

Over $2.02 million was wagered on the Oaks-Derby double, and I've found the will-pays to be at least as good a guide to likely Derby odds as the advance betting on the race itself. Below is the list of payoffs, the percentage of the live pool they represent, and the equivalent win odds based on those percentages (including Kentucky's 16 percent win-pool takeout). I've also listed the advance-wagering win-pool odds as of 6:30 p.m., with just $446,183 in that pool:

I'd recommend caution over some of the anomalies in the advance-betting win pool vs. the willpay equivalents, like Eight Belles being just 8-1 as opposed to 20-1 or Big Truck being 20-1 instead of 80-1. The DD pool was over four times larger than the Friday win pool, and it's hard to imagine many people other than casual visitors and souvenir collectors buying their tickets a day in advance.

A few other observations on the willpays:

*53.3 percent of the total betting was on just 3 of the 20 Derby horses -- Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro.

*Court Vision was a very surprising fourth choice in the betting, at the equivalent of just 12-1.

*Seven horses are at least twice their morning-line price in the equivalent-odds, including Tale of Ekati (15) at 31-1, Cool Coal Man (20) at 43-1, Bob Black Jack (20) at 51-1 and Recapturetheglory (20) at 58-1.

*Big Truck is the early leader over Anak Nakal for Longest of the Long

Posted by Steven Crist on May 2, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (19)

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Oaks Day Live

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11:55 am: Happy Oaks Day. I'm playing it from home in cool and cloudy Long Island, surrounded by two greyhounds rather than 100,000 Louisvillians, which is not an entirely unfavorable swap. It's 75 and partly cloudy in Derby City, with a rather grim forecast for the next 12 hours: A 40 to 70 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms throughout the day and "strong storms" hitting around 11 p.m. The good news is that Derby Day itself is looking better, with sunshine supposedly arriving right around Saturday's first post.

I'll be following the Oaks card here until its conclusion but apparently only via online replays until ESPN comes on the air at 3 p.m. HRTV is still unavailable via cable in New York and TVG doesn't have the signal, but at least on the Nassau OTB channel I'm getting an old-school odds feed and live calls. It's got the feel of a 1980's OTB parlor.

Two down, 21 to go on the Oaks and Derby cards. Fancy Fusaichi ($9.80) took the Friday opener, running down favored Over Under in the final yards to win the filly N2x with a mile in 1:35.71 for Kinsman/Mott/Prado. In the second, favored Honest Pursuit ($4.80), a 3-year-old Storm Cat-Honest Lady filly who won a maiden race by 6 1/2 at Keeneland last time out, scored by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:44.55 for Overbrook/Stewart/Albarado. Huge difference in the early pace of the first two races: 109.77 for the first six furlongs in the one-turn opener, 1:13.92 in the two-turn second.

I played a little 3x2x4x4 early pick four on races 1-4, the first of six pick-fours over the next two days that will account for most of my Oaks and Derby Day action. Taking a pass on today's all-stakes Churchill pick six, which begins with the Aegon Turf Sprint in the 5th, since the carryover's only $13k. If I want to annoy myself by getting involved with a pick-six that starts with a turf sprint, there's a two-day $108k carryover at Aqueduct that kicks off with statebred maidens going six on the inner. (Update: Races 4 and 9 at Belmont are off the grass; 6 & 7 still on.)

Need a 3,4,7,8/5,6,9,11 in races 3 and 4 from Churchill, where my odds feed just disappeared in favor of yesterday's Belmont replays.

Stakes scratches: Bayou Lassie and Silver Knockers (Louisville, race 6); Summer Courtship (Edgewood, race 7); Eight Belles (Oaks, race 10).

1:03 pm: No time like Oaks or Derby Day to put over a well-meant firster and the Borel boys (trainer Cecil and jockey Calvin) struck in the 4th with Royal Prado ($13.60), who smoked the field in 1:09.67, just three hundredths slower than the N1x in the third. Royal Prado's charms were there for all to see -- two bullet works at Oaklawn and two nice moves at Churchill -- but I missed them and so apparently did most pick-4 players: The payoff was $1,071 for a sequence that included 7-5 and 9-5 favorites and a 7-2 third choice, better than double the parlay.

2:45 pm : Here's how I'm playing the late pick-four on the Oaks card:

Edgewood Stakes (race 7): Clearly Foxy and Grade and Power look like the class of the field. A: 4,6; B: 1,8; C: 2,5.

Alysheba Stakes (race 8): A very tricky race with a key opening quarter -- will Jonesboro and Giant Gizmo go after Wanderin Boy or let him get loose? I'll go four deep with Wanderin Boy, Gizmo and the logical closers Chelokee and Magna Graduate. A: 2,3,5,6

Crown Royal American Turf (race 9): Three deep with Nistle's Crunch (visually impressive allowance victory), Prussian (serious raw talent) and Sailors Cap (huge effort in last.) A: 2,8,9

Kentucky Oaks (race 10): I like Proud Spell a lot. She ran faster than Pyro on the same cards twice at the Fair Grounds and I'll forgive her Polytrack effort in the Ashland. I'll back up with Country Star, who still has lots of upside and every right to be a very good one. A: 8; B: 6; C: 1, 3, 10,11.

3:30 pm: Sloppy and yielding at Churchill, where it's really pouring right now. ESPN came on at 3 p.m. and it's been doing a nice job of covering the races that shut-ins like myself otherwise couldn't see. The main track was being belatedly sealed as of 3:25 p.m.

The track was only wet-fast for the Louisville Stakes an hour ago, where champion Ginger Punch rebounded from her Apple Blossom fiasco with an easy and authoritative victory. Sitting just off glacial fractions of 25.25, 50.23 and 1:14.06, she shook off Unforgotten in upper stretch and scored by 3 3/4 lengths over Leah's Secret with Lear's Princess a disappointing third. Ginger Punch -- favored by just a few dollars over Lear's Princess when both were 4.50-1 in the BC Distaff last fall, paid $3 and ran the mile and a sixteenth in 1:43.08 for Stronach/Frankel/Bejarano.

The grass course was getting pretty wet by the time they ran the Edgewood. Zee Zee went right to the front and was never threatened. My Baby Baby made a little late run to be second but everyone else was spinning her wheels behind the $8.40 Zayat/Mott/Desormeaux winner.

After the race, Mott told DRF's Jay Privman on ESPN that he was thinking about scratching Prussian from the Crown Royal American Turf because of the rain. Prussian tired badly on a yielding course as the 7-2 second choice in the BC Juvenile Turf, but that course had been soaked for a lot longer than this one. [Update: Prussian scratched.]

4:27 pm: Giant Gizmo's first stakes victory, a very nice 5-1 score in the G3 Alysheba, overshadowed by the breakdown of Chelokee over the sloppy sealed track. Dr. Larry Bramlage, the on-call veterinarian, said on ESPN that the 4-year-old Michael Matz trainee fractured the condylar bone in his right front ankle, calling the injury similar to Barbaro's. Chelokee did make it onto the horse ambulance. Everyone's first thought was that the sloppy track was the culprit, though Bramlage pointed out that numerous long-term studies shows no higher incidence of breakdowns on wet than dry tracks. The colt was reported to be standing and walking an hour later and will be sent to Lexington for surgery in the next day or two.

A few minutes later, Elusive Lady was announced as a late scratch from the Oaks.

As for Giant Gizmo, second graded-stakes winner of the day for Stronach/Frankel/Bejarano, the Giant's Causeway 4-year-old has now won on turf, Cushion, Poly and dirt and is a welcome addition to the handicap ranks. He paid $12.60 and won by 3 3/4 lengths over 11-1 Better than Bonds, with 1.90-1 favorite Wanderin Boy a neck back in third. The winner's time of 1:43.96 was nearly a full second slower than Ginger Punch's Louisville two races earlier, but over a radically different track.

5:00 pm: Argggh. With Prussian a late scratch, 21-1 Tizdejavu ends up loose on the lead on the rain-soaked course in the Crown Royal American and hangs on by a desperate neck over Sailor's Cap, who I scratched into an extra time when Prussian was pulled, with Nistle's Crunch third. Oh well, four more pick-fours tomorrow.

Tizdejavu, a Tiznow 3-year-old owned and bred by his sire's connections, was making his grass and stakes debut after going 1-for-4 on Polytrack at Turfway and Keeneland. He ran the mile and a sixteenth under Garrett Gomez in 1:46.14, suggesting the turf course has slowed down a lot since Zee Zee's 1:44.73 two races earlier.

5:30 pm: Meanwhile, back at the Belmont ranch, Hepcat ($6.60) won the finale to complete a $16,904 pick six. Improvers of the breed bet a healthy $377,944 on top of the $108k double-carryover.

6:20 pm: Proud Spell looked like a winner every step of the way, and her authoritative five-length Kentucky Oaks triumph was a feel-good victory whether or not you bet on her. She ran in the right race by staying in the Oaks instead of the Derby, and her handlers were rewarded for their faith in obscure rider Gabriel Saez with an absolutely perfect ride.

She's now also come back to beat every filly who has ever finished in front of her. Second to Indian Blessing in the BC Juvenile Fillies and Silverbulletday, she avenged those defeats by thrashing last year's champion 2-year-old filly in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She was a dull third to Little Belle and Bsharpsonata in the Ashland over Polytrack, and came back to beat the two of them today. Unless her fellow Larry Jones trainee Eight Belles runs a big race in the Derby tomorrow, she's the leader of the 3-year-old filly division until further notice.

It's hard to say whether her Oaks victory should be seen as a positive regarding Eight Belles's chances. It's not as if Proud Spell is the second stringer. She's a small filly and her handlers thought a 10-furlong run against 18 or 19 colts wouldn't be fair to her, while Eight Belles is a more strapping individual. Pure Clan, beaten by identical 1 1/4-length margins by Eight Belles in her last two starts, finished third in the Oaks, beaten 5 1/4 lengths (only 1 1/4 lengths separated the 2nd through 6th finishers), but might have been closer with a smoother trip.

Proud Spell, a daughter of 2002 Derby runner-up proud Citizen, paid a square $8.80 and ran the mile and an eighth in 1:50.01, which stacks up pretty well against Giant Gizmo's 1:43.96 going a sixteenth shorter in the Alysheba. She completed a $2 pick-four (sigh) worth $11,666.80, and a $24,933.40 pick-six.

Thought I might catch the Oaks Day nightcap back on the OTB channel but nah, they've already switched over to a roundtable discussion, in Italian, of Neapolitan cinema.

Time to get to work on Saturday's card. I'm pretty sure there's another big race at Churchill tomorrow.

8:10 pm: Here's a link to the Oaks-Derby Double will-pays. The shocker is that Court Vision is the fourth choice behind Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro.

Posted by Steven Crist on May 2, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (31)

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Crist Blog | May 01, 2008

Longest of the Long

So enough already with who's going to win the Derby. Who's going to be the longest shot on the board at post time?

Here's the list of the longest shots in each of the last 10 Derbies:

I didn't bother going back any further, because the whole idea of long longshots changed radically with the elimination of the Derby mutuel field after the 2000 running. Prior to 2001, the horses with the least-promising histories were lumped together because the tote system could only handle 14 (and earlier, 12) betting interests. In 2000, for example, Exchange Rate was the longest-priced betting interest at 59.20-1, but he was considered a more likely winner than Wheelaway, Deputy Warlock or Ronton, who ran as a three-horse mutuel field sent off at 20.80-1. In 1998, Nationalore was 109.60-1 but there was a two-horse mutuel field of Robinwould and Basic Trainee at 69.80-1. In 1974's 23-horse Derby, there were two two-horse entries, nine solo betting interests, and a 10-horse mutuel field that was the third choice at just 5.20-1.

There hasn't been a 100-1 shot in the race since the 17-horse affair of 2001, when Startac ran 10th at 102.40-1 and Arctic Boy was 12th at 101.20-1. I don't think we'll be seeing any triple-digit horses for a while after the 50-1/71-1 Giacomo-Closing Argument exacta of 2005, and this year's longest shot is likely to be in the same 60-1 range of the last two years.

So who will it be? Mike Battaglia made just one horse in the field 50-1, Big Truck, while tabbing three at 30-1: Anak Nakal, Adriano and Z Humor. I can't see either of the latter two as the very longest shot, given Edgar Prado's choice of Adriano over Monba and Tale of Ekati, and Z Humor's (albeit long-ago) third in the Champagne to War Pass and Pyro. I would have put Smooth Air in the 30-1 category (he finished behind Big Truck the last time they crossed paths), but he seems to have a constituency despite neglecting to win a race beyond seven furlongs.

Anak Nakal, however, could give Big Truck a run for the least money. Big Truck has at least won a race this year, the Tampa Bay Derby, where he earned a 93 Beyer, six points better than Anak Nakal's best. Having said that, I think Anak Nakal would be a terrible bet to finish last in the race. He'll be passing horses late, but probably considerably fewer than 19 of them.

Come to think of it, it's kind of funny that last year's Tampa Bay Derby winner (Street Sense) was the Kentucky Derby favorite and this year's (Big Truck) is the longest shot on the morning line.

Posted by Steven Crist on May 1, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (20)

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Oaks & Derby Day Lineups

Here are the Oaks and Derby Day lineups: 23 races, 11 graded stakes, six pick-fours and two all-stakes pick-sixes:

Posted by Steven Crist on May 1, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (31)

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Crist Blog | April 30, 2008

Picks Day

It happens every spring: the return of racing to its grandest stage, a rite of renewal that has been going on for more than a century. I speak, of course, not of the Kentucky Derby but of Opening Day at Belmont Park.

I'm still hoping to get over there today for the last few races, since that was sort of the point of moving from Manhattan to just 5.1 miles from the Belmont clubhouse entrance 22 years ago. There are supposed to be some customer-friendly upgrades to the place worth seeing, as is the featured Westchester Handicap, with Grasshopper a legit 3-5 in his Met Mile tuneup against Divine Park, Sightseeing, Mr. Umphrey, Miner's Lamp and Saint Damon. The rest of the card, however, is not exactly scintillating: It beguins with three straight five-horse claiming races, and two of the day's four scheduled grass races have been moved to the main track due to heavy rain here Monday.

If I end up watching from home, I have my cable-tv choice of the pure simulcast feed via Nassau County OTB on Channel 74 or TVG coverage on Channel 402. I'm on 402 at the moment because there hasn't been any sound on the OTB feed since it started more than an ahour ago, and video keeps flickering and changing from color to black and white. But at least in theory, I have two more options than simulcast players in 16 other states will have. Belmont has yet to strike deals with the Midlantic and Southern cooperatives negotiating on behalf of tracks in Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia.

Blackouts seem to be the theme of what's supposed to be racing's week in the sun. Just three days before post time, it's still unclear whether many account-wagering customers will be able to bet on the full Derby card, and no one outside of Florida is able to bet on Calder, where purses have already been cut 30 percent and the handle on Sunday's late pick four was all of $7,086.

If I don't make it over to Belmont, it will be because today is Picks Day at DRF, which means I have to make my 1-2-3-4 consensus-box Derby choices and write a column for Saturday's paper by 6:30 p.m tonight. I'm probably making it more complicated than it needs to be but here's what I'm wrestling with: I want to (and probably will) pick Big Brown because I think he's a sensationally talented horse and I'm rooting that he's really as good as he's suggested he could be. On the other hand, I think a horse making his fourth career start in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby is a highly unattractive wagering proposition as the 5-2/3-1 favorite and I can't imagine betting a dime to win on him. So maybe I'm supposed to put him second or third behind horses I think offer more value, like Pyro at 8-1 or Tale of Ekati at 20-1.

I've got five hours to make up my mind. Perhaps a Belmont run will bring everything into focus.

[Update 6:50 pm:] Made it out to Belmont for the 6th through the 8th and felt better for it. Everyone seemed in a pretty good mood from the change of scenery, which is what seven straight months of Aqueduct can do to you. There's a new hospitality desk at the clubhouse entrance where employees actually greet you when you walk in, and some nice new flatscreen tv's scattered around the plant, but the most dramatic change is the graphics package on the simulcast signal, which seems sharper and bolder.

Trainer Billy Turner, who had won only 16 races in the previous 16 months, sent out three straight winners in the 4th, 5th and 6th, scoring with 8-1 Cloud Nine, 32-1 Drift King and 5-2 Just Zip It, for a $1,620 Turner-Turner-Turner pick three. Add "Turner on April 30ths" to your book of angles: On April 30, 2005, he won the 5th and 6th at Aqueduct.

Divine Park won the Westchester by five in a snappy 1:32.74, final quarter in 23.60, with Grasshopper an indifferent second and Sightseeing a rallying third.

Nobody picked six or even five so there's a $36k carryover into day two.

Derby 1-2-3-4 selections? Big Brown, Pyro, Tale of Ekati, Monba.

Posted by Steven Crist on April 30, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (45)

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Crist Blog | April 29, 2008

Figs and Props

Here's a little Beyer Speed Figure scorecard for this year's prospective Derby field and last year's edition:

And if that's not enough food for thought, here are some Derby-related proposition bets being posted on Bodog.com:

Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in US Thoroughbred Racing in 2008
Yes +550
No -1000

How long will the performance of "My Old Kentucky Home" be?
Over 3 minutes
Under 3 minutes

Will the crowd attendance exceed that of the 156,635 of 2007?
Yes -180
No +140

Will Big Brown or his jockey Kent Desormeaux display sponsorship logos of UPS during the race?
Yes +450
No -750

Will Big Brown win the Kentucky Derby leading "wire-to-wire"?
Yes +450
No -750

What will the odds of Big Brown be at post time in the Kentucky Derby?
Over 7/2 EVEN
Under 7/2 -140

How many lengths will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby win by?
More than 2 lengths 11/10
2 lengths 7/1
Less than 2 lengths 11/10

Will George Steinbrenner be at the Derby and shown on NBC?
Yes +250
No -350

Will the winning jockey take a flying jump off his mount in the winner's circle, in the same style as Frankie Dettori?
Yes +275
No -400

Will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby win the 133rd Preakness Stakes?
Yes +275
No -400

Will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby win the 140th Belmont Stakes?
Yes +550
No -1000

Will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby be bred in Kentucky?
Yes -1000
No +550

Will 20 horses start?
Yes EVEN
No -140

Which will pay more the winner of the Kentucky Oaks or Kentucky Derby?
Kentucky Derby -140
Kentucky Oaks EVEN

Will the filly Eight Belles run in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks?
Kentucky Derby +170
Kentucky Oaks -240

Will the filly Proud Spell run in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks?
Kentucky Derby +250
Kentucky Oaks -350

What will be the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby's starting gate?
Gates 1-5 1/1
Gates 6-10 5/4
Gates 11-15 9/2
Gates 16-20 7/1

Winning Time in the 2008 Kentucky Derby (G1) Churchill Downs
Under 2.01.30 EVEN
Over 2.01.30 -140

What will the Kentucky Derby Mutuel Win pay?
Over $18.50
Under $18.50

Will the winner of the 134th Kentucky Derby complete the race faster than the 2:02.17 time of Street Sense in 2007?
Yes -140
No EVEN

How many scratches will there be in the 134th Kentucky Derby?
0 Horses 1/1
1 Horse 1/1
2 Horses 15/2
3 Horses 25/1
More than 3 Horses 80/1

Will a horse trained by Todd Pletcher, capture the Kentucky Derby?
Yes +800
No -2000

What will be the time of the first ¼ mile?
Over 0:22.50 -150
Under 0:22.50 +110

What will the total on-track wagering handle of the Kentucky Derby be?
Over 12 Million Dollars -140
Under 12 Million Dollars EVEN

Posted by Steven Crist on April 29, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (33)

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