---

May 4, 2008 - May 10, 2008

Crist Blog | May 10, 2008

Peter Pannery

I'm going to let Casino Drive beat me in today's Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont. He's a pretty cool story, but could be a drastic underlay as the 2-1 morning-line favorite.

Casino Drive is the third consecutive foal produced by the Deputy Minister mare Better Than Honour to be pointed for the Belmont Stakes. The first was Jazil (by Seeking the Gold), who won the 2006 edition. The second was Rags to Riches (by A.P. Indy), who won it last year, the first filly to do so in 102 years. Now Casino Drive (by A.P. Indy's son Mineshaft) will make his American debut in the Peter Pan as a prep for the Belmont. where he will try to complete what might be the greatest pick-three by a broodmare in classic history.

It's a bold bid, and you have to like the moxie of Hidetoshi Yamamoto, the Japanese video-game magnate who bought the colt for $950,000 as a yearling in September of 2006, three months after Jazil's victory and three months before Rags to Riches made her racing debut. But 2-1 on a colt with one career start, albeit an 11 1/2-length romp in a $134,000 (!) maiden race at Kyoto Feb. 23? (A link to video of the race is here.) He missed a scheduled second start when quarantined during an influenza outbreak, arrived here April 30, and will be making his first start in 11 weeks.

“He should be better after this race,” the stable's racing manager told The New York Times. “He’s ready to run, but it’s been more than two months since he raced and he had a 13-hour flight from Tokyo and quarantine. He needs a race.”

The most obvious alternatives to the favorite are Tomcito, the 2007 Peruvian Triple Crown winner who was third in Big Brown's Florida Derby and 6th in the Blue Grass in his two American starts, or Golden Spikes, runner-up in Recapturetheglory's Illinois Derby. I'll instead lean on two slower-to-date but lightly-raced and improving colts, Ready's Echo (6-1 ML) and Cosmic (8-1 ML.) Ready's Echo is the colt who made up nearly 20 lengths in his 5 1/2-furlong debut running second to Z Humor at Saratoga and has two nice efforts since. Cosmic, a son of El Prado and Heavenly Prize, is a green and goofy colt who has won his last two starts, both at a mile and an eighth on the dirt, and has improved his Beyer figure in each of his six career starts.

The G2 Peter Pan is preceded by the G3 Bold Ruler, a race that completely baffles me. So maybe I'll try a 2x2 late-double criss-cross into the statebred maiden finale, using Ready's Echo and Cosmic with Writingonthewall and Letsgoyankees, second-time starters who look like stickouts now that the race has been moved from the grass to the main track.

Update 6:30 pm: Just got back from Belmont, where Casino Drive announced he will be a serious force in the June 7 Belmont Stakes with a smashing 5 3/4-length victory in the Peter Pan. Slammed from 2-1 to 6-5 in the final five minutes of betting, the strapping chestnut colt ran a powerful race. He broke slowly from the inside post, recovered quickly rushing up the rail, then settled nicely in fourth as his entrymate Spark Candle pushed Mint Lane through fractions of 23.08, 46.31 and 1:10.47. Desormeaux swung him out on the turn and Casino Drive quickly collared Mint Lane and Golden Spikes, pulling 2 1/2 lengths clear through a mile in 1:35.26, and widened his advantage with every stride through a final furlong in 12.61 for a final time of 1:47.87. Mint Lane held second narrowly over Ready's Echo, who lost contact with the field early and belatedly came from another zip code to be third.

There were two other one-turn routes on the card, both at a mile and a sixteenth. In the 5th race, a very impressive 3-year-old first-timer from Darley, a $1 million Unbridled's Song yearling named Unbridled's Heart, won his debut by 10 lengths over a solid field of maidens in 1:42.12. One race later, That'srightofficer won a statebred N1x in 1:44.14. I suspect we'll be hearing a lot more from not only Casino Drive but also Unbridled's Heart.

We've now got four pretty exciting undefeated 3-year-olds now who are a combined 10-for-10: Big Brown (4-for-4), Harlem Rocker (3-for-3), Casino Drive (2-for-2) and Unbridled's Heart (1-for-1).

Posted by Steven Crist on May 10, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (59)

---

Crist Blog | May 08, 2008

Superduper High Five

It would cost you only $60,000 to claim all 12 horses entered in Thursday's ninth race at Churchill -- less than the $95,040 cost of an all-all-all-all-all Super High Five ticket on the race.

It's possible that more will be bet on Thursday's SHF than has ever been bet in a single-race pool on a field of $5,000 claimers. The pentafecta bet, which carried over $331,928 from the Kentucky Derby to Wednesday's nightcap, attracted an additional $661,201 Wednesday -- more than the win, place, show, exacta and trifecta pools on the race combined -- and went unhit again after a 49-1/9-2/10-1/22-1/8-1 finish. So there will be $866,712 to seed the pool. If another $1.4 million is bet Thursday, there would be a potential $2 million payoff. So maybe buying the race for $95k isn't the worst idea in the world if you happen to have an extra $95k burning a hole in your pocket.

I'll be playing for at least $94k less than that, but at a $1 minimum and 95,040 possible combinations, it becomes an expensive play pretty quickly. Here are the costs of some conventional approaches:

Boxes

12-horse box: $95,040
11-horse box: $55,440
10-horse box: $30,240
9-horse box: $15,120
8-horse box: $ 6,720
7-horse box: $ 2,520
6-horse box: $ 720
5-horse box: $ 120

Keys
Key 1 on top of 11: $7920
Key 1 on top of 10: $5040
Key 1 on top of 9: $3024
Key 1 on top of 8: $1680
Key 1 on top of 7: $ 840
Key 1 on top of 6: $ 360
Key 1 on top of 5: $ 120
Key 1 on top of 4: $ 24

Other than the bottom rungs of those lists, these are not exactly invitingly affordable bets for most players. Here are two alternatives to consider:

1)A key to win and a second key to run second or third. Let's say those horses are #1 and #2, and you want to use five other horses underneath. You could do this for $120 by buying the following two tickets:

$1 SHF: 1/2/3,4,5,6,7/3,4,5,6,7/3,4,5,6,7 = $60
$1 SHF: 1/3,4,5,6,7/2/3,4,5,6,7/3,4,5,6,7 = $60

2) Use three keys -- one must win and the other two must both finish fourth or better. You could do this for $216, using four other horses underneath, as follows:

$1 SHF: 1,2,3/1,2,3/1,2,3/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,7 = $72
$1 SHF: 1,2,3/1,2,3/4,5,6,7/1,2,3/4,5,6,7 = $72
$1 SHF: 1,2,3/4,5,6,7/1,2,3/1,2,3/4,5,6,7 = $72

3) Desperate to hit the all-button for 5th? You could key a winner, with four others in positions 2-3-4, and then roll the dice for fifth as follows:

$1 SHF 1/2,3,4,5/2,3,4,5/2,3,4,5/ALL = $192

Wednesday's unhit SHF involved 11 maiden claimers with a combined record of 0-for-53. The dozen in Thursday's finale have a combined record of 69-for-351, a bit more form to go on, but it's a very tough race. Half the field is dropping in price, and they made their most recent starts at seven different tracks: Beulah, Keeneland, Mountaineer, Oaklawn, River Downs, Tampa and Turfway. Good luck.

The people who put over Future Prospect, the New York-bred $100.40 winner of Wednesday's 9th, apparently didn't wheel their horse in the SHF, a $5,040 play that would have returned $866,712. For their sake I hope they bet a little to win at 49-1, since they also blew their New York-bred maiden conditions winning an open maiden claimer at Churchill that carried a $14k purse. Future Prospect ran well enough to win most statebred maiden claimers in New York, which have $24k purses, or even statebred maiden-specials, which go for $44k these days.

Update 12:10 pm: One scratch so far in CD race 9 -- #2 Put Up Or -- brings the cost of an all-all-all-all-all ticket down to a mere $55,440. With a $2 million payout, you'd get your money back (before withholding and taxes) if there were 38 winners. Fewer than 38 correct tickets and you show a profit. The CD main track is listed as "good."

Update 5:41 pm: Turns out, if you bought the race for $55k, you lost 51 percent of your investment, before taxes: The old 4-3-7-11-9 paid $26,922.20 a pretty nice payout with a $5.60 winner on top. But not for me and my $288 stab. I keyed the 3 to hit the board, surrounding him with the 1-4-5-7 in the top four positions, adding the 6-8-9 for fifth, as follows:

3/1457/1457/1457/1456789=$96
1457/3/1457/1457/1456789=$96
1457/1457/3/1457/1456789=$96

So a 4-3-7-11-9-5-1 finish was a little frustrating. The 4-3-7 part was just fine, and so was the 9 running fifth but I had no 11's in any position on any ticket.

Today's pool was $1,585,220 (before takeout) on top of the $866k carryover, which works out to about 80 winners.

Posted by Steven Crist on May 8, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (32)

---

Crist Blog | May 05, 2008

Afternumbers

Life goes on:

--Big Brown received a Beyer Speed Figure of 109 winning the Kentucky Derby, which means that runner-up Eight Belles (beaten 4 3/4 lengths) received a 102 and third-place Denis of Cork (beaten 8 1/4) got a 97. The chart below shows how those stack up with the other Derby 1-2-3- finishers of this decade:

It was a slightly tricky figure to make because there was a strong headwind that horses had to race into twice in two-turn races, and the Derby horses did so for 3/16ths of a mile longer than the horses in the day's two other dirt routes, both at a mile and a sixteenth. Those who like to see speed figures adjusted for ground loss will further upgrade Big Brown's performance since he was wide on both turns. Big Brown fans will also point out that he did all this with seemingly disdainful ease in just his fourth career start.

--The decline in this year's Derby betting -- 3.2 percent on the main event and 2 percent on the overall Derby Day card -- involved a number of factors: the lack of signal and/or wagering through some account-wagering companies (though there were similar issues last year), a decline from 30 to 22 in the number of starters in the three stakes preceding the Derby -- and a single late scratch in the 11th race. As the chart two posts down illustrates, betting was up as much as 16 percent year-over-year early in the card, then began to slip on the three short-field stakes, and then fell off dramatically in the 11th race before rebounding in the finale. In the 11th, the late scratch of second choice Solemn Promise prompted massive refunds, causing year-over-year declines of 25 to 45 percent in the intrarace (exacta, tri and super) pools.

Also, nearly a third of the gross full-card decline was due to a drop in pick-six betting from $1.42 million to just over $676,000, probably a function of there having been a $300k carryover last year and none this year.

--Speaking of pick-sixes:

*That $676k invested on the Derby Day pick-6 did not include a correct 6-of-6 combination, so there's a $410,599 carryover when racing at Churchill resumes Wednesday. The lineup:

Race 4: 3+F AlwC/OC100k 6f (field of 7)
Race 5: 2yo MdSpWt (8, including 6 firsters)
Race 6: 3+F Clm50k 1 1/16m-Turf (8)
Race 7: 3+F Clm10k N2L 6f (10)
Race 8: 3+F Alw N2x 1m-Turf (7)
Race 9: 3+M MdClm15k 6f (12+4 AE's)

That full field of maiden claimers in the finale will be the decider of two big carryovers -- there's also $331,928 in the Super High Five pool, which went unhit on the Derby.

*Belmont's Sunday card included $23.40, $54.50 and $22.80 winners in the pick-six sequence, so there's a $48,557 carryover into Wednesday.

*At Hollywood Sunday, a $387,386 carryover attracted an additional $1,57 million and one heavy investor took it down for $1,262,507 on a $24,192 ticket purchased at Santa Anita. After withholding, the poor whale only got about 38-to-1 on his money -- or less, if that was only his main ticket. Or maybe just a backup.

--Z Humor scored a mild upset winning the Longest of the Long honor at the mutuel windows, going off as the biggest price in the field:

63.60-1 Z Humor (14th)
53.90-1 Anak Nakal (7th)
49.00-1 Recapture the Glory (5th)

If there had been trifecta betting on this curiosity, the payoff would be inflated due to the absence of Big Truck, the lone 50-1 shot on the morning line and a seeming cinch to be one of the three longest shots. Instead, the 18th-place finisher inexplicably went off at only 28.60-1, the 10th rather than 20th choice. The best theory I've heard is that some julep-swilling patrons got their Bigs mixed up and thought they were betting on Big Brown and not Big Truck.

Posted by Steven Crist on May 5, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (41)

---

Crist Blog | May 04, 2008

PETA Outdoes Itself

From The Associated Press:

PETA wants Eight Belles jockey suspended after filly's death

NORFOLK, Va. (AP) — People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals is seeking the suspension of Eight Belles' jockey after the filly had to be euthanized following her second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.

Gabriel Saez was riding Eight Belles when she broke both front ankles while galloping out a quarter of a mile past the wire. She was euthanized on the track.

PETA faxed a letter Sunday to Kentucky's racing authority claiming the filly was "doubtlessly injured before the finish" and asked that Saez be suspended while Eight Belles' death is investigated.

"What we really want to know, did he feel anything along the way?" PETA spokeswoman Kathy Guillermo said. "If he didn't then we can probably blame the fact that they're allowed to whip the horses mercilessly."

Eight Belles trainer Larry Jones said the filly was clearly happy when she crossed the finish line.

"I don't know how in the heck they can even come close to saying that," Jones told The Associated Press on Sunday. "She has her ears up, clearly galloping out."

Guillermo said if Saez is found at fault, the group wants the second-place prize of $400,000 won by Eight Belles to be revoked.

Saez, a 20-year-old Panama native, was riding in his first Kentucky Derby. He frequently rides for Jones.

A call to the jockeys' room at Delaware Park, where Saez raced on Sunday, went unanswered.

Eight Belles, the first filly since 1999 to run in the Derby, appeared fine until collapsing while galloping out after the finish.

The letter to the Kentucky Horse Racing Authority also sought a ban on whipping, limits on races and the age of racehorses, and a move to softer, artificial surfaces for all courses.

Posted by Steven Crist on May 4, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (90)

---