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May 25, 2008 - May 31, 2008

Crist Blog | May 31, 2008

Post Mortem

Nothing longer than a fifth choice won in Saturday's pick-six sequence at Belmont, but all six favorites lost, leading to a fat $186,012 payoff for three bettors who put the six tricky but not impossible winners on the same ticket. Just over $696k was wagered on top of the $166k double-carry from Thursday's and Friday's cards.

The rain came but only briefly, turning the main track sloppy with a 20-minute burst of biblical proportions before the second race. The grass courses probably needed the water and were close to firm, producing times of 1:10.78, 1:08.94 and 1:09.19 in the three turf sprints that began the sequence.

I stayed barely alive through those first three legs, where Prime Obession ($14.80/5th choice), Cannonball ($11.00/3rd) and Beware Ceasar ($10.60/4th) thinned the competition but also thinned me down to a 2x2x1 that pitched a shutout the rest of the way. Typhoon Tycoon ($25.00/4th) and Raw Silk ($18.80/4th) ran the five-race parlay up to $50,691 and set up the following will-pays going into the finale:

#7- $111,607
#9- $186,012
#3, 8- $558.037
#1,4,5- carryover

That worked out to five winners to the #7, three to the #9 and one each to the 3 and 8. I'm guessing that means five different live tickets, as follows:

#7 only - two
#7 and 9 - two
#3,7,8,9 - one

In any case, nothing personal against those five players, but I rooted as best I could for a 1, 4 or 5 and a $558k triple-carry into Sunday but the three outsiders trailed and second-choice #9 Piper's Fort ($8.80) won off for the $186k payoff. Consos were worth $1,097, small consolation for the two ticketholders that singled the runner-up favorite in the finale.

Posted by Steven Crist on May 31, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (54)

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Crist Blog | May 30, 2008

Coffee, Milk, Midnight Oil

Get to work: There's a $166k double-carryover into Saturday's pick-six at Belmont. The first five legs are on the grass, the first three of those at six furlongs. Lucky me.

The lineup:

Race 5: 3+ NYB Msw - 6f-IT
Race 6: 3+ NYB Pebos Guy S. - 6f-WT
Race 7: 3+ Clm35k - 6f-IT
Race 8: 3+ NYB AlwN1x - 1 1/16-WT
Race 9: 3F G2 Sands Point S. 1 1/8-IT
Race 10 3+ Clm25k N3L - 1m

A one-day $46k carry attracted $217k in Friday action. The sequence seemed likely to be nailed after starting with 3-5, 7-5, 5-2 and 3-1 winners, but Stud Muffin's 19-1 victory in the featured Noble Nashua Stakes upset most applecarts.

The $150k Sands Point is one of six graded stakes around the country Saturday, the richest of which is the G2 $300k Ohio Derby at Thistledown. Hollywood has the G2 Californian and G2 Milady, while Churchill has a paid of G3's, the Aristides and Dogwood.

Might want to keep an eye on the New York weather if you're getting involved at Belmont. The overnight forecast calls for "isolated T-storms" beginning at 7 am, "Scattered T-storms" at 10, "strong storms" beginning at 1, and "isolated strong storms" at 4.

Posted by Steven Crist on May 30, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (14)

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Crist Blog | May 29, 2008

Belmont Props

--I wrote a Saturday column about some of the proposition bets being offered on the Belmont. Here's the full list from Bodoglife.com:

Will Big Brown win the Triple Crown?
Yes -300
No +220

Will Big Brown race again after the Belmont Stakes?
Yes +275
No -400

Will the official TV rating of the 2008 Belmont Stakes broadcast on ABC exceed the 13 share rating in 2004 when Smarty Jones attempted to win Triple Crown?
Yes -200
No +150

What will Big Brown's margin of victory in the Belmont Stakes be?
1 - 5 Lengths 1/5
6 - 10 Lengths 7/2
Over 10 Lengths 20/1

Who will jockey Kent Desormeaux thank first upon being interviewed after the 2008 Belmont Stakes?
God/Jesus ` 10/1
Horse - Big Brown 3/1
Family or Family Member 6/5
Owner - IEAH Stables or partnership member 8/1
Trainer - Rick Dutrow 9/2
Fans/General Public 5/1

Will Big Brown win the Belmont Stakes going wire to wire?
Yes +450
No -750

Will Big Brown take the lead in the Belmont Stakes and lose it?
Yes +150
No -200

Will jockey Kent Desormeaux whip Big Brown between the 1/8th pole and the finish line of the Belmont Stakes?
Yes -350
No +250

Will a member of the Clinton Family (Bill, Hilary or Chelsea) attend the 2008 Belmont Stakes?
Yes -120
No -120

Will the mayor of New York City, Michael Bloomberg, attend the 2008 Belmont Stakes?
Yes +150
No -200

Which position will Big Brown be in at the official first quarter mile time of the Belmont Stakes? (According to Equibase results chart)
1st or 2nd place 1/1
3rd through 5th place 5/7
6th place or higher 14/1

Which position will Big Brown be in at the official first half mile time of the Belmont Stakes? (According to Equibase results chart)
1st or 2nd place 1/1
3rd through 5th place 5/7
6th place or higher 14/1

Will Big Brown's winning time in 2008 Belmont Stakes be faster than that of Affirmed - 2:26 4/5. in 1978?
Yes +150
No -200

Will Belmont Park attendance for the 2008 Belmont Stakes exceed that of 120,319 in 2004 when Smarty Jones attempted to win the Triple Crown?
Yes -275
No +200

Will the total all sources handle for the Belmont Stakes exceed the record $114,887,994 wagered in 2004 when Smarty Jones attempted to win the Triple Crown?
Yes EVEN
No -140

Which horse will win by more lengths, Big Brown in the 2008 Belmont Stakes or Curlin in the Stephen Foster Handicap June 14th?
Big Brown in Belmont Stakes EVEN
Curlin in Stephen Foster -140

Will Big Brown remain undefeated in 2008?
Yes -250
No +180

Odds to win the Belmont Stakes
Big Brown 1/3
Casino Drive 7/2
Denis of Cork 10/1
Tale of Ekati 20/1
Behindatthebar 25/1
Anak Nakal 40/1
Macho Again 40/1
Readys Image 50/1
Icabad Crane 50/1
Mint Lane 50/1
Spark Candle 50/1
Tomcito 50/1

Odds to win the Belmont Stakes WITHOUT Big Brown
(If Big Brown wins and your horse is 2nd - you win. If your horse wins - you win.)

Casino Drive 6/5
Denis Of Cork 9/2
Tale Of Ekati 15/2
Behindatthebar 8/1
Anak Nakal 12/1
Macho Again 12/1
Readys Image 16/1
Icabad Crane 16/1
Mint Lane 16/1
Spark Candle 16/1
Tomcito 16/1

--Maybe everyone else already realized this but it just occurred to me: The three favorites for the Belmont Stakes have made a combined total of 12 career starts -- 5 for Big Brown, 2 for Casino Drive and 5 for Denis Cork.

Posted by Steven Crist on May 29, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (34)

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Crist Blog | May 27, 2008

Moral Victory

They don't pay off on moral victories, but Commentator could not have been more gallant in defeat than he was while finishing second to Divine Park in the Met Mile Monday.

After being pushed by First Defence to run very strong fractions (22.48, 44.52) on a tiring track, Commentator appeared cooked in upper stretch when First Defence ranged up on his outside and began to go past him. The old boy rose to the challenge, however, digging back in and regaining the lead, refusing to let First Defence go by him and crushing his bid. He reopened some daylight and looked like he might gut it out, but then along came a fresh Divine Park to go past him.

The extremely strong pace and dull surface led to a slow final time of 1:36.91 and very slow final quarter of 27.30 off a pace of 1:09.61. There were only four dirt races at Belmont Monday, three of them at a mile, but it was nearly four hours between the Met and the previous one-mile races. The final times of the three mile races are very hard to fit together because the first two were slow-paced events, but they make a little more sense if you look at both the six-furlong splits and the final times:

Race 2 (maiden claimers): 1:12.84/1:40.19
Race 3 (statebred Alw N1x): 1:11.77/1:37.43
Race 10 (Metropolitan H.): 1:09.61/1:36.91

Think of it this way: While the final time of the statebred N1x was only three lengths (5-6 Beyer points at a mile) slower than the Met, it was 13 lengths slower (33-34 Beyer points at six furlongs) slower to the six-furlong call.

Commentator now will be pointed for the Whitney and a possible date with Curlin while Divine Park -- who has now won the Withers, Westchester and Met, all one-turn miles -- looks like a strong Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile candidate.

I had singled Commentator on a small pick-six play that died one leg earlier Monday. The $238k double-carry drew a hearty $1,028,157 in new money, producing a $45,376 6-of-6 payoff that feels a little high for a $12.40/$12.20/$8.60/$10.60/$6.40/$12.40 sequence. On the other hand, the parlay works out to a suprisingly high $34,201, and all six favorites lost.

Posted by Steven Crist on May 27, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (44)

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Crist Blog | May 26, 2008

Met Mile Card

As you may have guessed from my absence here since Friday evening, and the lack of sightings from commenters monitoring my Furlong Frank consumption, I've been goofing off and enjoying the glorious weather in my backyard this holiday weekend instead of slaving over the races at Belmont. The revised plan was to compensate with a full, 11-race outing to the old horse park today, but after some slaving on the Met Mile Card last night I'm in no hurry to get out there. The pick-six with $238k double-carry doesn't start until the 6th at 3:40, and there's not much worth seeing all day until they run at Met at 5:49.

Every other race on the card is for maidens (4), claimers (4), statebreds (5) or some overlapping permutation thereof, with 7 of the 10 on the turf including two statebred turf sprints. There's no other stakes race on the undercard, nor even a single open allowance race. After the $600k Met, the $52k statebred N2x and the $50k statebred N1x are the richest events of the day.

There was a time when such a Memorial Day parade of mediocrity would have been unthinkable for a major holiday card at Belmont, but it's not as if they could have put on a bunch of better races with comparable fields and chose not to: You write races for the horses you have on the grounds. NYRA has made the most of its horse population with a raft of new race conditions over the last few years, creating more opportunities for the hundreds of statebred maidens and 1-for-lifers populating the backstretch: The pick-six races have fields of 13, 15, 11, 10, 9 and 12. This is what we've got these days, even on what's supposed to be a special day.

I'm still wrestling with how seriously to play the pick-six, given the two statebred turf sprints in the sequence and the regrettable positioning of the only race with firsters as the finale in the sequence. If I do pull the trigger, I'm going to be going only one or two deep in the Met itself, not only because the other races require so much spreading but also because it sure looks on paper like Commentator or Divine Park should win. I prefer Commentator, whose outside draw gives him options with Kiss The Kid the only other real speed in a pretty paceless lineup. He's the only G1 winner in the field (the '05 Whitney over Horse of the Year Saint Liam), and I'm pretty sure he's the only only racehorse this decade other than Ghostzapper to fire three Beyers of 119 or higher in his career. With just 17 starts in six years on the treack, he's obviously got his problems, but when he's right he's brilliant and he's been as right as ever as a 7-year-old this year.

Divine Park has returned to the form that won him the Withers in his third career start last year and comes off an explosive, career-best performance in the Westchester, where he scorched a mile in 1:32.70 on opening day at Belmont April 30. It gets pretty thin beyond him with the possible exception of First Defence, a fine second to Hard Spun in the King's Bishop last August (though Hard Spun did all the dirty work that day) an a winner of his 4-year-old debut despite being pressed every step.

Ah, late scratches are up. Time for another cup of coffee and further reflection.

Posted by Steven Crist on May 26, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (46)

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