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June 1, 2008 - June 7, 2008

Crist Blog | June 07, 2008

Belmont Day

12:15 pm: is this thing on? Blogging by cellphone...what a concept. The first Belmont I covered, I batted out on a manual typewriter and then dictated to a telephone transcriptionist in the NY Times "recording room." Almost 30 years later, I'm still on a phone.

After one race, it's clear we have a much different and much quicker main track than we've had all week. Desert Key ($4.30) won the opener from box to wire, getting a mild half in 45.12 en route to a final time of 1:08.80.

Too soon to tell about the crowd and whether the scratch of Casino Drive will keep anyone away. At the moment the apron is full but navigable and the box area a sparse but it's still six hours to the big one. No line at all to get my first Furlong Frank of the afternoon.

Going to put in early pick-4's. Back in a while.

1:30 p.m.: Sorry, servers and wireless access are not cooperating. I'll be back much later on or tomorrow with a full report on the day.

Posted by Steven Crist on June 7, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (53)

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Crist Blog | June 06, 2008

Belmont Eve

The pool for the Brooklyn Handicap-Belmont Stakes double was $275,716, more than 10 times the puny $20,285 in the advance win pool Friday, so the implied odds from the double payoffs are probably a better gauge of what to expect tomorrow:

All prices and prospects are in limbo pending the possible scratch of Casino Drive, who was higher than his 7-2 morning line in both pools after the discovery of a possible bruise in his left hind foot Friday morning. Going by the double betting, if Casino Drive were scratched, Big Brown would drop from 7-to-20 ($2.70) to 1-5 ($2.40), with Denis of Cork becoming the 7-1 second choice and Tale of Ekati next at 13-1.

If Casino Drive does run, it will be interesting to see if he's still bet as strongly as was expected before the Friday incident.

--No carryover into Saturday's $1 million guaranteed pick-six after two winners collected a seriously overlaid $32,583 payoff Friday for a sequence of winners that paid $9.10, $13.60, $5.10, $4.20, $6.60 and $6.50 -- almost 10 times the $3,553 parlay. The joker in the deck was the $13.60 Phipps/McGaughey firster Tourism, a 3-year-old Seeking the Gold-Resort filly who got up by a head over 1-2 Platinum Plus, the only odds-on starter in the pick-six races.

Tourism is Resort's second foal. The first, Sightseeing, was a disappointing fourth at 3-1 in the featured G2 Brooklyn Handicap, repositioned and lengthened into a 12-furlong race this year and won by Delosvientos, a 5-year-old Siphon gelding who also won the local prep for this, the $75k Fit to Fight at Belmont May 15. Both times, 10-year-old Evening Attire ran on late to get up for second behind the front-running Delosvientos, falling 2 1/4 lengths short in the Fit to Fight and two lengths short in the Brooklyn.

Despite the nearly identical outcomes, Delosvientos set a much slower pace in the prep and finished up quicker, while he ran faster early and slower late in the Brooklyn:

Fir to Fight: 24.47, 49.72, 1:15.05, 1:39.68, 2:04.33, 2:29.40
Brooklyn H.: 24.22, 48.11, 1:12.74, 1:37.65, 2:03.91, 2:30.96

Friday's other stakes, the G3 Hill Prince for 3-year-old grass horses, featured a very impressive 3-year-old debut by Gio Ponti, who circled the field from last despite mild fractions to run down Prussian and win off by two lengths. The Tale of the Cat colt won his debut at Saratoga, beat Nownownow in the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland, and suffered his lone defeat in four starts running eighth to Nownownow after a rough trip in the BC Juvenile Turf.

The grass course seems in perfect shape after Wednesday's needed dousing, and the current forecast calls for only a 10 to 20 percent chance of rain between now and the Belmont. Gio Ponti made up four lengths on a final quarter of 23.89 in the Hill Prince.

--Everyone's a wiseguy: Only three of the 21 "selectors" on the special DRF consensus-pick pages for the Triple Crown races are alive to pick the winners of all three races this year -- and all three two of us got off Big Brown for the Belmont. Brad Free stayed with Big Brown switched to Tale of Ekati, Mike Watchmaker went for Casino Drive and I'm on Denis of Cork. [See Dave R.'s comment below.]

Watchmaker, Dave Litfin (who picked Big Brown) and I will be doing a seminar somewhere near the paddock at Belmont from 10 to 10:45 a.m. tomorrow, and I might as well stay for the races as long as I'm already out there, so any live blogging will be much briefer than it was when I played the shut-in on Derby and Preakness Days. I'm going to try posting via cell phone from my seat outdoors -- wish me luck. I'll post some thoughts on the card either before or after the seminar. [Update 2:18 a.m.: Let's make that definitely after the seminar.]

Posted by Steven Crist on June 6, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (15)

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Crist Blog | June 05, 2008

Showdown at Suffolk?

Suffolk Downs has thrown down the gauntlet in the budding race to land a Curlin-Big Brown prizefight this fall by announcing a $5 million package of purses and payments if the two colts stay unbeaten this year and meet in the Mass 'Cap Sept. 20:

[Suffolk Downs press release:]
EAST BOSTON, MA - Suffolk Downs has announced that the purse for this year’s Massachusetts Handicap will be $5 million if Big Brown wins the Triple Crown and both he and 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Curlin remain unbeaten in 2008 and go on to start in the MassCap against one another. The $5 million would include a $1 million participation bonus for each.

The 66th MassCap, scheduled for Saturday, September 20, and contested at 1-1/8 miles, currently carries a purse of $500,000 and is one of five races in the Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” Classic Division. The additional purse money would be funded by Coastal Development, LLC, a company controlled by Richard T. Fields, the largest shareholder of Suffolk Downs.

“Big Brown and Curlin are regarded as the two best thoroughbreds in the world and racing fans would like nothing more than to see them go head to head,” said Fields. “If they are to square off, we feel that a $5 million purse is a great incentive and what better place than at Suffolk Downs in the city of Boston, the sports capital of the world.”

The purse would be $3 million if Big Brown wins the Triple Crown and both he and Curlin start the race but with one or both horses having suffered a defeat in 2008. The $3 million would include a $500,000 participation bonus for each.

The three other possible venues for such a matchup are the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Sept. 27. the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita Oct. 25 and the Clark Handicap at Churchill Nov. 22. Big Brown's connections have said they are pointing for two more races after the Belmont -- the Travers at Saratoga Aug. 23 and the Classic -- but that they are open to other possibilities to meet Curlin, since that colt may skip the Classic because of Santa Anita's synthetic racing surface.

Now that Suffolk has made the first bid, offering as rich a package as the $5 million BC Classic, it will be interesting to see if Belmont or Churchill try to up the ante for their six-digit races. Everything else being equal, a mile and a quarter showdown at Belmont might be the most appealing on purely sporting grounds: it's the distance at which Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby and Curlin won the BC Classic and World Cup, and the track where Curlin won last year's Gold Cup and where Big Brown might win something kind of major on Saturday.

Posted by Steven Crist on June 5, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (37)

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Crist Blog | June 04, 2008

Picking Against

Just 64 hours or so till first post on Belmont Day. Here's the 13-race, seven-hour and 45-minute lineup:

The breakdown: Four G1 stakes, two G2 stakes, five allowance races (three for statebreds) and two maiden races (one for statebreds; nine dirt races (six sprints, two miles and the Belmont) and four grass races; ten races for males, three for fillies and mares.

The Acorn drew only five, the True North eight, and everything else attracted 9 or more entrants. I can't find a full wagering menu on Belmont's website, but presumably there are more pick-4's than the guaranteed one on races 8-11. And no dime supers either Friday or Saturday on the Belmont races.

I had to make my 1-2-3-4 selections tonight for the Saturday newspaper and after picking him in the Derby and Preakness, I got off the Big Brown wagon, picking him second here. Of course he's a swell horse, and the most likely winner on paper, but he's a severe underlay at 2-5 in a spot attempting what 10 straight Derby-Preakness winners have failed to do. I landed instead on Denis of Cork (12-1 ML), who has room to improve and did well to pass 17 horses during the Derby. I put the favorite second, my old friend Tale of Ekati third, and Ready's Echo, who has a freaky little late run that could prove interesting if the race falls apart, fourth. Casino Drive has the potential to be any kind of horse, but I can't abide 7-2 on a horse making his third career start.

Posted by Steven Crist on June 4, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (59)

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Crist Blog | June 03, 2008

What Price Big Brown?

Here's how they bet the last three Belmont Stakes where a Triple Crown was on the line:

I think it's safe to say that the 2004 template is the one that's going to most closely resemble the 2008 version. Big Brown obviously is going to be odds-on, though probably not as short as his 1-5 Preakness price. Smarty Jones went from being 0.70-1 in the Preakness to 0.35-1 in the Belmont, but he didn't face as well-regarded a new shooter as Casino Drive, who looks like a clear second choice somewhere around 7-2 or 4-1. Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati figure to be the distant, gapped-out third and fourth choices, similar to their Derby finishes.

Rock Hard Ten and Eddington were 6-1 and 14-1 in the 2004 Belmont after running second and third in Smarty Jones's Preakness, but Macho Again and Icabad Crane figure to be significantly longer than that. Anak Nakal, D'Tara and Ready's Echo all could be 30-1 and up despite being trained by recent Belmont winners Pletcher and Zito.

The Belmont and supporting card (Acorn, Just a Game, Manhattan, True North, Woody Stephens) will be drawn Wednesday, when racing resumes at Belmont with rain expected. The long-range forecasts are for some more possible thunderstorms Friday but a pretty clear Belmont day with tempertaures poking up into the 80's.

Posted by Steven Crist on June 3, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (26)

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