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June 15, 2008 - June 21, 2008

Crist Blog | June 20, 2008

Fun With Penetrometers

Ever wonder just how "yielding" a turf course really was, especially when the time of the race was fast? American grass courses are rated pretty crudely and sometimes arbitrarily, with a track superintendent making a ballpark guess based on a look at the course and a guess at how hard it rained last night. Other countries try harder, it seems, based on this news release from New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing Inc.:

A new system of grading track conditions is about to go on trial in New Zealand. The new system will run from mid June to the end of September and if supported by the Industry will remain in place from that date.

New Zealand currently employs five track grades ranging from Fast to Heavy. Each of these grades is aligned to a band of penetrometer readings – for example Good going is the result of an average penetrometer reading of 2.1 to 2.5 inclusive. The penetrometer number is an average of 30 readings from around the track. Currently this average reading is also released when the track rating is declared.

When soil conditions change between the time readings are taken and when races are run, Punters, Trainers and Riders can be incorrectly placing too much emphasis on a precise penetrometer number. The very wide bands of the present track condition grades make it difficult to indicate where a track is likely to shift to given weather conditions at the time readings are taken. Narrower bands would help racecourse managers give Punters, Trainers and Riders a better perception of the track condition.

New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing (NZTR) has developed the new 11-scale system, which has been endorsed by Club and Industry representatives and Turftech (the original developers of the Penetrometer system):

Scale/Rating/Penetrometer Band/Comment
1/Fast/0.5 – 1.9/A dry hard track
2/Good/2.0 – 2.2/A firm track
3/Good/2.3 – 2.5/Ideal track with some give
4/Dead/2.6 – 2.8/Track with give better side of Genuine Dead
5/Dead/2.9 – 3.2/Genuine Dead
6/Dead/3.3 – 3.5/Significant amount of give, worse side of Genuine Dead
7/Slow/3.6 – 3.8/A mildly rain affected track, better side of Genuine Slow
8/Slow/3.9 – 4.2/Genuine Slow
9/Slow/4.3 – 4.5/Rain affected, worse side of Genuine Slow
10/Heavy/4.6 – 5.5/Genuine Heavy
11/Heavy/5.6+/Very soft and wet, heaviest category

This new rating scale aims to more accurately reflect the track rating and provide more consistency. Each step in the scale is either a 0.4 or 0.3 spread of penetrometer readings. Turftech advised NZTR that there is no reason for the penetrometer bands to be exactly the same width for each rating category. As such, the spread for ‘Genuine Dead’ and ‘Genuine 2 Slow’ categories is 0.4 as against 0.3 for all other categories except ‘Fast’ which has always been an anomaly as the first category.

By adopting a different bandwidth for ‘Genuine Dead’ and ‘Genuine Slow’ it retains the cut off point for ‘Good’ at 2.5, ‘Dead’ at 3.5 and ‘Slow’ at 4.5, which is what Punters are accustomed to. The consequence of bringing these three ratings into the mix and the need to have two heavy categories means that the New Zealand scale will have 11 categories rather than the 10 used in Australia. Under this new scale the actual Penetrometer number will not be released, only the rating category and associated scale – for example ‘Dead 6.’

The description will also be published to help with the understanding of the new track rating scale, for example ‘Dead 6: Significant amount of give, worse side of Genuine Dead.’ During the trial period a horse’s form sheet will continue to reflect its performance on the five scales – Fast, Good, Dead, Slow and Heavy tracks - not be broken down to the 11-scale system. These proposed rating categories would not only more accurately reflect the track rating in New Zealand but also provide both Australian and New Zealand wagering customers a better indication of the predicted track conditions.

In all cases once the first race is run the time of the races becomes the key determinant of the track condition on the day.

That final sentence is almost the most remarkable one. Only once in a blue moon is an American grass course upgraded when it's clear from the times of the races that the initial guess was a bad one.

--As for Thursday's Congressional hearing:
*Column here: Download Column061908.doc
*Webcast archive and prepared statements: Click here

Posted by Steven Crist on June 20, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (26)

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Crist Blog | June 17, 2008

Another Legislative Disgrace

The bill passed Monday by state legislators will raise the parimutuel takeout on New York races by one percent beginning Sept. 14, an unnecessary and punitive increase that was not sought by anyone except the New York City OTB corporation, which the same bill basically put out of its misery after nearly 40 years of operation.

The bill also appears to raise the takeout on at least some bets on out-of-state races made in New York, a highly unorthodox surcharge, though it is unclear exactly how this would work or which races would fall under its scope.

As per the usual clueless reporting on racing matters in the general press, the passage of the bill is being widely hailed as a plucky 11th-hour piece of public service by the Mayor and the Governor to save jobs and avoid cuts in social services. It was nothing of the kind.

A quick recap: NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg earlier this year said he would close down NYCOTB on June 15 unless the state threw another $20 million or so a year its way because he claimed the city would start losing money on OTB. This was possible only if you ignored that the city was making $19 million a year on OTB through its unique, regressive "surcharge" on winning bets, which reduces winning payoffs by 5 to 50 percent for the lowest economic tier of bettors, those who play at shabby storefront "parlors" instead of teletheaters or through phone accounts.

Last week, the state called Bloomberg's irresponsible bluff, saying it would happily take OTB's profitable operation off Bloomberg's hands, and announced Friday it had a deal. Then Bloomerg said wait, not so fast, I still want that $19 million a year in profits. The same profits whose existence he ignored in claiming he would have to start laying off cops and firemen. He ended up settling for $4.5 million in ongoing annual payments, plus three years of annual $3.25 million payments to keep the races on the two city-owned public-access cable channels.

So how did the takeout increase survive? Well, someone had already drafted a bill, and the state's five other OTB's weren't going to take a pass on millions in free money, so nobody bothered to whack it out. The increase supposedly sunsets in two years, by which time a supposedly slots-rich racing economy will allow lawmakers to let it expire. Breath-holding is not recommended.

On the brighter side, the state takeover of NYCOTB at least raises the possibility of some sort of consolidation of the state's crazy and wasteful OTB system. And Bloomberg's appalling behavior throughout this episode -- from his tonedeaf bashing of wagering to his duplicitous and inept negotiating -- has cost him plenty of political capital and exposed his supposed sharp business acumen as a fraud.

Posted by Steven Crist on June 17, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (68)

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Crist Blog | June 15, 2008

6 of 6: $48.00

Sometimes the best bets are the ones you never make -- like Saturday's all-stakes pick-6 on the Foster card at Churchill Downs.

If I hadn't stayed out too late at a Steely Dan concert Friday night and then elected to goof off instead of gamble after sleeping in on Saturday, I would have put in more than a bit more than $48, and thus come out a heavy loser on the proposition. The combo of Hysterical Lady ($3.00 in the G2 Fleur de Lis), Pure Clan ($4.00 in the G3 Regret), Pyro ($5.60 in the G3 Northern Dancer), Tizdejavu ($8.00 in the G2 Jefferson Cup), Curlin ($2.80 in the G1 Foster) and Dreaming of Anna ($3.00 in the G3 Mint Julep) returned precisely $48.00. That's for 6 of 6. You got only $2.80 worth of consolation for 5 of 6. And Pyro and Tizdejavu weren't even favored.

There's nothing you can do except be happy for the $4 investors when this happens. What else can you do -- try to have it multiple times? I never do. Even when a sequence looks this chalky going in, I see no point in trying to hammer the super-chalky combos -- something usually goes wrong at least once in a six-race sequence. I'd always rather spend any extra dollars on additional backups that could pay five digits than on trying to have a two- or three-digit payoff a few extra times. But that's just me.

So how did the pick-six pay $48.00 while the pick-4 of only the last four pick-6 races paid $69.00, more than the $48.00 you got for two additional winners? The pick-4 pool was twice as large ($269k vs. $123k), and the consos in the pick-6 cut the 6-of-6 payoff by 25 percent. This also seemed like a pick-6 where regular pick-6 players may have passed because of the standouts.

--Hail to Curlin for his dominant Foster victory, winning off by 4 1/4 lengths under 128 pounds, spotting 10 to 15 pounds to his nine rivals. It would have been nice to see the race live on one's home television, but: HRTV is unavailable on cable on Long Island; TVG, for which I pay an extra $4.95 a month to Cablevision, is not allowed to carry the live Churchill signal; and Belmont did not run its last race until 5:50 pm, and didn't finish with the payoffs and replays until 6, and the Nassau OTB channel is not allowed to show out-of-state races until NYRA signs off, so they switched to a quarter-screen view of Churchill just in time...for me to see Curlin being led into the winner's circle. I waited for the replay, and got to see some of it but about halfway through, the Nassau OTB video jockey dropped it for a full-screen view of the 9th at Arlington.

This does not seem the optimal way for the sport of racing to showcase the best horse in the world.

Posted by Steven Crist on June 15, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (59)

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