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June 22, 2008 - June 28, 2008

Crist Blog | June 27, 2008

Tick Tock

Saturday's Sixty Minute Six at Bel/Mth/Del/Pha/Bel/Del, with a $65k carryover from last Saturday's inaugural running, is all yours: I can't play it because I can't get past the second leg, a race that seems an especially poor choice for inclusion in a multirace, multitrack wager.

Here's the lineup:

The second leg, the only dirt race in the sequence, is a maiden-special-weight five-furlong sprint for 10 New Jersey-bred 2-year-olds -- every single one of them a first-time starter. If the race were the first leg of the sequence, at least you'd get a look at how the betting goes. But with the firster fest as the second leg -- albeit scheduled to go just 10 minutes after the first leg, from Belmont -- you'll be lucky to get one quick look at the opening betting and pick-three probables into the race before your Sixty Minute Six tickets are due. Thinking of betting more than 15 minutes before post time for the first leg? Happy guessing.

A race consisting entirely of first-time starters really shouldn't be part of a bet like this at all, especially when Monmouth had plenty of other races it could have positioned in this spot. Instead of carding the maiden race in the 3:50 pm slot, either of the two following races -- both turf stakes -- would have fit perfectly. Either nobody thought about it at all, or somebody thought it was more fun or more daunting (and thus more likely to produce a double-carryover) to include a race among 10 horses with no past performances.

Conversely, I suppose this could be the opportunity of a lifetime for someone who specializes in New Jersey-bred juvenile firsters.

Alas, no double-carryover on Belmont alone. Improvers of the breed bet $241k on Friday's twilight pick-six into a $38k one-day carryover, and one of them collected a nicely overlaid $177,832 for an $11.60/$5.70/$28.80/$11.20/$10.20/$8.30 sequence.

Posted by Steven Crist on June 27, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (28)

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Crist Blog | June 25, 2008

Bad Rap Sheet?

By now you've doubtless read somewhere about trainer Rick Dutrow's "72 citations for offenses" (Sports Illustrated), his "72 separate rules violations" (espn.com), or, in the even looser reporting standards of the blogosphere, his "72 suspensions" or "72 doping violations." Problem is, it all stems from the same source and neither the number nor the characterization of what they constitute appears to be true.

The source for the 72 supposed infractions is a database search from the Association of Racing Commissioners International, as published on The Baltimore Sun's website during Preakness Week. The header of the 33-page report begins "richard eugene dutrow Rulings Against: 72" and apparently that's about as far as a lot of people read:

1. Only 59 "rulings" appear to be listed as opposed to the 72 in the header.

2. Many of them are duplicative or are the second or third iteration of a single ruling following a modification or appeal.

3. Some of them are not "rulings against" Dutrow at all, such as the four in which racing commissions ruled he was "restored to good standing" after paying fines or restitution.

4. Many of them do not have anything to do with administering illegal medication, and are for such common infractions as failing to have foal papers on file, providing the correct owners' colors to the jockey room, or failure to follow entry and scratch procedures. Eight of them involve his personal marijuana use and posession more than 15 years ago.

It appears the correct number of medication rulings is 13, not 72: six Bute overages, four Lasix overages, two for clenbuterol, and the mepivicaine positive for which he was suspended (along with a clenbuterol positive) 60 days in 2005. This is not a record worthy of consideration for the Exemplar Of Racing Award, but it's also not 72 cases of doping horses.

Below is a summary of the "rulings" listed in the ARCI document, which appears to omit the $25k fine New York assessed for Dutrow's violating the terms of his 2005 suspension by communicating with his assistants. Also, the first item was not in the ARCI report, which was generated a month earlier.

Posted by Steven Crist on June 25, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (61)

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Crist Blog | June 22, 2008

Prize Package

I went back to Belmont yesterday for the first time since the Big Brownout, and in a new capacity: Human Prize Package. DRF Press ran a promotional contest this spring where anyone who ordered a copy of Best with The Best 2: Longshots online at drf.com in its first two weeks of publication was automatically entered in a random drawing to win a trip to his favorite track -- plus lunch with your choice of available BWTB authors. The winner, who didn't even know he'd been entered until he won, would have preferred Brad Free but chose Belmont over Hollywood, which meant he instead got Garden Terrace sandwiches with me and Mike Watchmaker along with two nights at the Garden City Hotel, roundtrip airfare for two, and a $100 betting voucher.

We had no idea if the winner would know a fork from a furlong and what kind of a lunch was in store, so were pleasantly surprised to meet an enthusiastic and knowledgeable fan, who not only understood what a pick-4 partwheel is but also has published two books on somewhat more complicated economics, which he teaches at the university level. He had invited his wife to join him, but the saintly woman said he'd have more fun with his gambling buddies, so he was joined by a fellow economist from Memphis who has been studying predictive markets and has four online betting accounts, and a horse-owner/golf pro/inventor friend from Pennsylvania. No explanations of furlongs were necessary.

(But how about an explanation for the $3.50 per-person "seating charge" on the lunch check? I can understand a food-and-beverage minimum if NYRA is concerned about someone nursing a single cup of coffee at a clubhouse table all afternoon, but a $17.50 chair surcharge on a party of five eating $14.95 sandwiches seemed like an oxygen tax.)

Anyway, after I took the prizewinners down with me in the opener by singing the virtues of 9-1 Big Bold Place, who backed up gamely through the field after a perfect trip, they were more interested in Watchmaker's subsequent selections, and played the early pick-four to get alive to his longshot special, 20-1 Cherokee Speed in the fifth -- who came flying a little too late for the pick-4 but got up for second to get them well as the bottom half of a $206 exacta under a $10.80 winner.

There was brief discussion of playing the new Sixty Minute Pick Six, but neither the DRF authors nor their guests knew or were able to find out much about this pretty well-concealed new wager. It seems to be being promoted only half-heartedly but apparently met its $100k guaranteed pool. I can't find the handle or payoffs in the charts for either Belmont, Delaware, Monmouth or Philly, whose races made up the sequence, but according to NYRA's website there's a $64,477.55 carryover to next Saturday so maybe we can get it figured out by then.

Mauralakana was very good winning Saturday's featured G2 New York under top weight of 123 by a long neck over Dynaforce, with Hostess another neck back in third in a tight finish among the three 5-year-old mares. It was Dynaforce's first start since finishing a close third to Satwa Queen at Deauville last August, and she's eligible to improve. Hostess has now finished behind Mauralakana in three if their four meetings, handing Mauralakana her lone defeat of the year going a mile and a half in the G3 Orchid at Gulfstream.

Mauralakana's victory at $3.30, combined with the triumphs of Veritable at $4.70 in the 7th and Bontempi at $3.50 in the 10th, produced a paltry $109.50 late pick-4 even amid the defeat of the day's heaviest favorite, 0.55-1 Mucho Macho in the 8th. Mucho Macho, who earned a 103 Beyer winning his debut May 17, recovered from an awkward start, went head and head with second-choice Goldsville ($9.30) until upper stretch, then had no response as Goldsville spurted away and drew off by 4 1/2 lengths.

Not that I did, but one could have turned that $109.50 pick-4 into an $11,398 pick-6 if you had prefaced the last four winners with $10.80 Big Al and $22.00 Optimistic Steve, the latter a haveable winner in a tough race if you're as fond of turnbacks as I am. Optimistic Steve was cutting back from a mile and a half to seven furlongs, and Saturday's distance was the shortest of his entire career: All 23 of his previous starts had been at 8 to 12 furlongs, including a sixth-place finish in the Street Sense-Any Given Saturday Tampa Bay Derby last year.

Posted by Steven Crist on June 22, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (37)

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