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July 6, 2008 - July 12, 2008

Crist Blog | July 12, 2008

Saturday Notions

CHICAGO -- Curlin's grass debut in the Man o' War may be the single most compelling race on Saturday's busy schedule, but the cards at Arlington and Calder are far more interesting and engaging than Belmont's, which is not only short on quality but peculiarly arranged.

There's a $52k pick-6 carryover I won't be playing at Belmont, where cards seem increasingly to be set up to foil multirace players. The two best and richest races on the card besides the Man o'War are being run as the 3rd and 4th, preceding the pick-six sequence, while the clearly worst race on the card, a sprint for beaten $15k claiming fillies that should have been the first or second half of the early double, has been inexplicably slotted as the 7th. The finale, which ends both the pick-4 and pick-6, is a dismal statebred maiden turf race where the second and third ML choices are first-time starters, exactly the kind of race that should never be run as the last on the card. The placement of the 7th and 10th make the pick-4 and pick-6 unplayable for me, so I'll watch Curlin with keen, but not parimutuel, interest.

At Arlington, where I'll be doing a seminar with Mike Watchmaker and Marcus Hersh starting at 11 a.m., there are three intriguing grass stakes that serve as the local preps for the track's three big Grade 1 races August 9th: The G3 Arlington Handicap is a prep for the Arlington Million; the G3 Modesty for fillies at 9.5f will yield some longshot starters for the Beverly D, and the G2 American Derby for 3-year-olds is the prelude to the Secretariat.

The two favorites in the Arlington Handicap are both former Patrick Biancone trainees -- Cosmonaut, now with Carlos Martin, and Stream Cat, who has been transferred to Rusty Arnold. Cosmonaut, third in last year's BC Mile, will be shooting for his third straight Arlington Handicap victory, and for the third year in a row he looks like the lone speed on paper and a serious threat to wire the field. Stream Cat hasn't been out since Oct. 27, and 10 furlongs for a new trainer off a nine-month layoff isn't my idea of value at 5-2. Instead, I'll use Cosmonaut and Corrupt, an improving 4-year-old with all sorts of trips and excuses in his last three starts.

The Modesty is the best betting race of the three, with a field of 11 in which at least six have a real shot of victory. Ciao at 10-1 ML is appealing in her third off a layoff if she can get back to the form that got her within half a length of Bit of Whimsy in last fall's G2 Mrs. Revere, and Lemon Chiffon at 6-1 may have the most upside in the group, making just her fifth start and her first outside California. Ballymore Lady must be used at 5-1 off a sharp second to Dreaming of Anna last time out in the G3 Mint Julep.

The American Derby has more of a Million Day flavor than the other two in that it features two appealing European imports: Great War Eagle (Storm Cat-Cash Run), second in a pair of Irish G3's this spring, and 10-1 Blue Exit, in from France. They'll have to run down Tizdejavu, who got loose winning the G3 American Turf and G2 Jefferson Cup in his last two and looks likely to get loose again here.

Calder's Summit of Speed card includes four straight graded stakes at six furlongs worth a combined $1.3 million: the Azalea and Carry Back for 3-year-olds, then the Princess Rooney and Smile for older sprinters. Out-of-towners appear to have the edge in all four races.

The Azalea looks like a showdown between fillies based in San Francisco and Vancouver: Indyanne, a winner of her three career starts in Northern California by a combined 23 lengths, and Dancing Allstar, the pride of Hastings Park, who is 8-for-10 overall and 7-for-7 on real dirt.

The Carry Back has a solid favorite in Lantana Mob, winner of the G3 Hirsch Jacobs on the Preakness undercard, though he hasn't raced since then and has moved from Steve Asmussen's barn to Michael Trombetta's. But it's a weird race. There's not a single true frontrunner in the field, which may compromise the favorite's chances. Also, you have to figure out what to do with Golden Spikes and Gentleman James, who earned stratospheric 104 Beyers finishing a head apart and 10 lengths clear of the rest of the field in the local prep for this, the June 14 Unbridled. Those performances were 17-to-19 point career tops in sprints for both colts.

The G1 Princess Rooney features a rematch between the 1-2 finishers in the May 25 G2 Vagrancy, Looky Yonder and Dream Rush, both unraced since then. Dream Rush had a four-length lead after 5 1/2 furlongs that day but stopped late as Looky Yonder came from the clouds to run her down. That big move has made Looky Yonder the favorite, but I lean toward Dream Rush, who cuts back half a furlong and should improve in her second start of the year. Mistical Plan deserves a long look at 10-1 cutting back from 8.5f to 6f; the last time she did that, she won the Sunshine Million Oaks. Miraculous Miss, beaten just half a length at 43-1 in the BC F&M Sprint last year, should be up for a piece in her second start of the year.

The Smile looks made to order for the country's top-ranked sprinter, Benny the Bull, who is listed at 7-5 but could be odds-on. He beat 3-1 ML second-choice Man of Danger by only a neck in the G2 True North on Belmont Day, but was hampered by a slow pace and an almost-too-late ride. The Smile has plenty of speed to keep Man of Danger busy early and I'm looking for another closer, the vastly improved Rockerfeller (ML 6-1), rather than Man of Danger, to complete the exacta.

If you forced me to bet on the Man o' War, I'd probably try to beat Curlin with Grand Couturier rather than the better-known (and perhaps past-their-prime) Better Talk Now and Red Rocks. Grand Couturier got seriously good last summer, beating English Channel on the square at Saratoga and then running a fine third to Doctor Dino and Sunriver in a slow-paced Man o' War. If you forgive his BC Turf over a soft course he didn't handle, and his comeback at Belmont last month where he tried to rally from dead last into a 22.93 final quarter, he has possibilities at a price.

As I'm wrapping this up at 1:30 a.m. Central time, thunderstorms are pelting Chicago, so be sure to check course conditions and late scratches. And as long as we're talking Arlington, I never get tired of watching this one:

Posted by Steven Crist on July 12, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (30)

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Crist Blog | July 11, 2008

Root For, Bet Against

As you can see from the crowded lineup below, Saturday is a feast of interesting racing even beyond Curlin's turf debut in the Man o' War at Belmont, with the Summit of Speed at Calder, the Million Day Preview at Arlington, the Delaware Oaks card and the return of Colonel John in the Swaps at Hollywood:

I'll post some thoughts on the races late tonight or in the morning after travelling to Chicago, where (plug alert!) Mike Watchmaker and I will be doing a seminar and book (Bet With The Best 2) signing from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Saturday in the Starting Gate Theatre at Arlington.

As for Curlin, my impulse is to root for and bet against. It's great that he's still in training (though regrettable that this is such an upset we need to applaud it) and it's been a long time since a champion was campaigned creatively rather than cautiously (though regrettable that this was occasioned in large part by the selection of a synthetic surface for this year's Breeders' Cup Classic.) If Curlin proves to be as good on grass as on dirt and makes a run at the Arc de Triomphe, it will be a bold and historic bid.

Handicappers know that's huge if, though. He worked well enough on the Churchill Downs course and he's got an adequate pedigree for it (Smart Strike out of a Deputy Minister mare) but it's rare for a dominant dirt horse to be as good on the turf. Nor is this a collection of slouches that has been rounded up to flatter Curlin: Four of his six opponents are Grade 1 or Group 1 winners, including BC Turf winners Better Talk Now and Red Rocks. While none of them is in world-class form these days, they're a sufficiently salty group that a) beating them would be a real achievement and b)Curlin may be an underlay at odds-on.

---Neat historical nugget from DRF Senior Editor Irwin Cohen: "Secretariat also made his turf debut in the Man o' War and finished out his career on grass outside of the country - karma or coincidence...

"The Man o' War was my first and only up-close look at Secretariat as a racehorse...I remember leaning over the rail by the paddock and watching him come out of the tunnel. His chest with rippling and his walk was pure swagger. He ran against Tentam, who was this little thing but had won the UN by five and was at the time clearly the best grass horse in the country. I think Secretariat had a bullet five-eighths in 57 and 4 on the turf, but I was a contrarian even at 18 and I made my big bet -- $5 - on Tentam. Tentam made two runs and I thought the second time, on the far turn, he was going to go right by, but the big fella just shooed him away like a buzzing gnat and won easy without ever getting out of a gallop. Just awesome."

---There are a number of fascinating issues surrounding Curlin's 2008 campaign but steroids is not one of them. Solely because of a completely different sort of use of steroids in baseball, steroids has become the mainstream media's current obsession in racing, overshadowing more important and legitimate medication issues in racing and creating the false impression that this is a new factor in handicapping. Irresponsible speculation that going "off" steroids somehow caused Big Brown to lose the Triple Crown, while not supported by a shred of evidence or common sense, has already prompted similar talk about Curlin -- who, like many if not most champion racehorses of the past 20 years, has been treated, completely legally, with steroids during his career.

Curlin reportedly stopped getting steroids at the end of last year, and it has made absolutely no difference in his performances as a 4-year-old. Racing in Dubai, where steroids are banned, he won the Jaguar Cup and Dubai World Cup, and then returned here to win the Foster without them.

--There's a nicely-written article about racing in Mongolia in today's New York Times. Betcha didn't know that Mongolians call horse racing one of "the three manly sports" along with wrestling and archery, or that:

"Until the 20th century, horses were in the blood of all Mongolians. Their language has more than 70 words to describe the animals’ coloring. When a great horse dies, its skull is placed atop a cairn on a mountain, and Mongolians make offerings there."

Posted by Steven Crist on July 11, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (26)

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Crist Blog | July 08, 2008

Hollday Weekend Notes

Here's a link to a handy page on this site that, if you're like me, you didn't even know existed: a sprawling table of all the weekend stakes results, with Beyers when available and links to charts and some replays.

---The two biggest figs among the holiday weekend's 15 graded stakes were in six-furlong races at Belmont: Lucky Island's 113 winning the G2 Tom Fool Friday and Indian Blessing's 109 winning the G1 Prioress Saturday. Both get a small asterisk for coming over wet tracks but both winning performances were powerful ones by very good racehorses who showed an added dimension.

Lucky Island, who might be the best sprinter in training this side of Benny the Bull, won the Bold Ruler in his previous start after rating early and waiting for room, but in the Tom Fool he took early command from Tasteyville and then kicked clear late.

Indian Blessing got an oustanding ride from John Velazquez, who said he simply "rode her like she was the best horse." Drawn inside the other speed in the race, Indian Blessing was outsprinted early, took to the outside on the turn and powered to a 4 3/4-length victory. Pencil her in as odds-on in the Test Aug. 2, the second Saturday of Saratoga (which opens in a mere 15 days.)

---If you watch only one replay, make it Saturday's Cash Call Mile at Hollywood, and decide for yourself which is more incredible: the way that Ventura (#2, Juddmonte green and pink) snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, or that she almost won the race after fighting Garrett Gomez just about every step of the way.

---Mint Lane, whose 106 Beyer winning the Postponed Stakes at Belmont June 13 was the highest in a route this year by any 3-year-old male except Big Brown's Kentucky and Florida Derbies, returned to win the Dwyer Sunday at 3-5 but earned only a 95 this time. Some might ascribe the decline to the dreaded bounce, but the fractions of the two races may have been the difference. Mint Lane led all the way in both races but set much faster fractions over a slower track in the Dwyer and was visibly tired late:

Postponed: 23.99, 47:49, 1:11.70, 1:36.21, 1:42.67
The Dwyer: 23.55, 46.59, 1:11.01, 1:37.34, 1:44.29

If you break it down into the first two half-miles and the final sixteenth, it looks like this:

Postponed: 47:49, 48.72, 6.46
The Dwyer: 46.59, 50.75, 6.95

Pace handicappers who make a pace as well as a final-time speed figure for races would say (in pace/final terms) that Mint Lane ran something like a 96/106 in the Postponed and a 107/95 in the Dwyer.

Posted by Steven Crist on July 8, 2008 | Permalink | Comments (69)

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