December 2009

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"Triple Crown" for $1,000, Alex

The answer is: Chateaugay, Middleground, Needles, Twenty Grand.

The correct question is: "Name the only four horses who won the Kentucky Derby, finished second in the Preakness, and then won the Belmont" -- which is what Mine That Bird will be favored to do Saturday. It would be the first time in 46 years that has happened:

Mine That Bird is only the 15th Derby winner to run second in the Preakness, and will be only the 10th such horse to try the Belmont. The other five skipped the Belmont, including the most recent two -- Street Sense in 2007 and Fusachi Pegasus in 2000.

The five most recent Derby winners before that who ran second in the Preakness all tried the Belmont and all five lost, but the previous four who tried it all won. So the total record for Derby winners/Preakness runners-up in the Belmont is 9:4-3-1-1. So history suggests not leaving Mine That Bird out of your superfectas.

--It's a light weekend on the graded-stakes front with only seven such races, four of them for turf fillies:

Posted by Steven Crist May 30, 2009 4:29:25 PM | Permalink

Keywords:

Comments

mlnj says:

For Sean ...

One wonders how you would "show" anyone the difference between Grade I horses and the ones in a 50K claimer except by looking at the money they have won, and that they run imperceptibly faster. Claiming races are more straightforward to handicap for someone being introduced to racing because it is more obvious that 50K is better than 40K than than ArkDby is better than BlueGr (recently anyway). And if the newcomers come back on a Thursday, or if they go to Finger Lakes, they are going to see Claiming races, not Grade I Stakes. You are the one who cares about these for whatever your reasons are. Casual fans only care about them to the extent that they are reported and discussed in the popular media. And those other Grade Is won't get anymore coverage than the opening NW1X (or whatever it is) will. They will all be obscured by the Belmont.

Posted by ml/nj Jun 3, 2009 7:51:17 AM

wayne80 says:

Scanning the Pp's there are a few other entrants perfectly capable of being in front at the quarter pole, Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy and indeed even little Mine That Bird, whose very quick middle move in the Derby would have him in front easily after 10f Saturday.

As for actual attendance, I suspect 40k will be hard to achieve.

Posted by Wayne80 Jun 2, 2009 5:30:45 PM

sean says:

Mlnj -

You made my point for me. Youre going with people that don't know what a Grade I is...well, you'll have 3 of them on Belmont Day to show them. That's the point...you have to get the people that come out once/twice a year to come back on other days.

Posted by Sean Jun 2, 2009 11:50:34 AM

beerbelly says:

Here are the positions & beaten lenghts of the Belmont winners after 10 furlongs from 1993 to 2008:
1993-Colonial Affair-3rd-2.5L
1994-Tabasco Cat-2nd-1.5L
1995-Thunder Gulch-2nd-hd
1996-Editor's Note-2nd-1.5L
1997-Touch Gold-3rd-1.25L
1998-Victory Gallop-5Th-7.5L
1999-Lemon Drop Kid-4th-1.25L
2000-Commendable-1st
2001-Point Given-1st
2002- Sarava-3rd-.75L
2003-Empire Maker-1st
2004-Birdstone-2nd-3.5L
2005-Afleet Alex-2nd-hd
2006-Jazil-1st
2007-Rags To Riches-1st
2008-Da'Tara-1st

10 of the last 16 Belmont winners did NOT have the lead after a Mile & Quarter.

However, Belmont winners have led after 10 furlongs 6 of the last 9 runnings.

Conclusion: Figure out who leads after 10F & key one slot in the superfecta. Give another slot to the Derby winner. Fill in the blanks for the other 2 slots & rotate or tier all 4 slots.

The leader after a mile & quarter?
Charitable Man or Miner's Escape.
You make the call.

Posted by beerbelly Jun 2, 2009 11:02:04 AM

bernard_downes says:

Why all the doom and gloom your side of the Pond. If the attendance is 40,000+ and the racing is competitive (at whatever grade), should be a great day out.
We have our Derby at Epsom on Saturday (the real Derby) and they are hoping for 70,000+ given fair weather; and yet, 10 years ago, 35,000 would have been considered a good crowd. These things are surely cyclical.
By the way, Mine That Bird is 5/4 with one of our Bookmakers, but even at that price I will be looking elsewhere.

Regards - Bernard

Posted by Bernard Downes Jun 2, 2009 5:12:31 AM

buffalo_joe says:

George from Tampa-

I understand your point with Borel, but this ole boy doesn't have a malicious or arrogant bone in his body.

Lets face it while he may be 2 or 3 bricks short of a full load, arrogant no. He is sincere, folksie, and fearless when on horseback. Maybe if he wins the Belmont, maybe he'll make that fiance' of 7+ years an honest woman and tie the knot with her or whatever they do down in the bayou.

Anyway I'll be pulling for him and boxing him with Charitable Man in the exacta come Sat.

Posted by buffalo joe Jun 2, 2009 2:12:43 AM

c says:

ml/nj,
The bigger problem, and the reason the 1966 Belmont was the only stakes on the card, is that there are WAY too many graded stakes on the schedule today. Even if we sprinkle the graded stakes across the weekday cards, we'd still need to schedule several multiple-stakes cards. There are just too many of them. Every halfway decent horse gets a stakes race named after them when they retire. It's ridiculous. Do we really need a Birdstone stakes? Many of these stakes are weak... some of them have to be! Anak Nakal is a multiple-grade G2 winner. That should tell us something because a horse of his talent should not be even close to a graded stakes winner. He should be a mid-level claimer or allowance plater.

As for your main point, I have to disagree. I don't see your point that "undercard" G1s are seen as less important. How would putting them on a Wednesday make them MORE important? That doesn't make sense. People work during the week, which is why the track is empty. The days of 25,000 attending on a weekday are long gone. I'd hate to break this to you, but those glory days are simply never coming back, no matter what. That's just reality. Anyhow, do you really want the Acorn, True North, or Woodford Reserve run on a day when NOBODY at all will even have a chance to notice? I, for one, wouldn't be able to see them live. How on earth would that be better? What about the Breeders Cup? Let's put the Sprint on a Tuesday and see how it does. If your friends don't know the difference between a G1 and a claimer, then why is this even a problem? And if you like claimers so much, you have weekdays full of them.

Posted by C Jun 1, 2009 11:50:17 PM

dan_mackenzie says:

Regarding the adjustment to Beyer Speed Figures for synthetic surfaces...

Beyer Speed Figures are a customized number based on a formula developed by Andrew Beyer. When he introduced the BSF in 1975, compiling the raw data was a daunting task that required manual entry of voluminous information from printed charts into a Texas Instruments calculator and onto a handwritten sheet of tabulations. This laborious process is now unnecessary. Steve and his associates at the DRF sell, at a reasonable price, the raw data already formatted for immediate processing by commonly used database and spreadsheet applications.

YOU now have the power to create YOUR own customized figures based on any criteria that YOU consider to be important. Is field size a factor to you ? Adjust the statistics according to the number of horses in the race. Don't trust the official track condition ? Adjust according to rainfall data that can be easily obtained for any area by the hour. Are bar shoes and mud caulks factors that you always consider ? Adjust according to what the horse has on its hooves.

Create the Unitas Big Number, the PeeWees Big Bet Adventure Value or the Larry Thiel Integer.

YOU create YOUR version of the BSF !!! While such a task was impractical and time consuming before 2000, IT CAN BE REASONABLY DONE IN 2009 !

Beyer wrote:

"We want readers to have the same confidence in our speed figures on synthetic surfaces as they do for the figures on dirt, and with our new calculations we believe that they will."

Sorry Andy. Raw data is out there for everybody to use. I once had a job as a statistical clerk drawing month-by-month data onto a graph with pencil and ruler.

That day has passed...

Posted by Dan MacKenzie Jun 1, 2009 11:12:37 PM

alhattab says:

On the attendance prediction, any comparison to 2005 or later is irrelevant. After the Philadelphia patrons made their Smarty Jones roadtrip and trashed the place, NYRA banned BYOB. Smarty Jones year pulled something like 120,000. Last year they had 96,000 for a horse many viewed to be a shoo in. Yeah it was broiling but don't underestimate the impact of the BYOB policy as we learned from the Preakness. 50k sounds about right based on compares to 2005 and 2006.

Posted by alhattab Jun 1, 2009 10:07:23 PM

c says:

willow_hour,
Jazil should certainly be considered a deep closer as well, if you go by running style. It's not that such horses are at a disadvantage, it's that they should get into the race before it's too late. That's basically true for every race, not just the Belmont. If they get a properly timed ride, there's no reason to think a deep closer should be at a disadvantage.

Posted by C Jun 1, 2009 10:06:04 PM

mlnj says:

Hello Sean? Have you ever been to Belmont on a Thursday?
I have six tickets for Saturday (finally) and only one other will go to someone with more than a hundred lifetime admissions. The others barely know what a Grade I is. It is you who care so much about all these Grade I's and you might pay attention anyway. This is such a DISASTER for racing that words fail me. In the golden days of NYRA racing (50,000+ every Saturday, 25,000+ every weekday) I cannot recall a single day with two undivided stakes on any card...

Posted by ml/nj Jun 1, 2009 7:58:03 PM

yuwipi says:

willow hour:
Not to disagree with your point, which is well made, but Silver Charm was on the lead at the 1/4 pole and run down by Touch Gold. That was a heck of a stretch drive. Still don't think Silver Charm would have been beat if he'd have seen Touch Gold outside Free House.

Steve's mention of Chateaugay etc. in his trivia question started me looking for pedigree information on them. Came across pedigreequery.com. Had a lot of fun punching in old favorite horses. Thought some here might want to check it out.

Posted by yuwipi Jun 1, 2009 6:11:24 PM

george_quinn says:

I have officially had enough of Calvin Borel! As if his Today show appearance and the zillion interviews he has done is not enough, now the he is sure he will win the Belmont? REALLY?
Good luck to everyone else but he is officially Lebron James to me. Overhyped and overbet. Maybe he should have said "If all goes according to plan we should be tough to beat", but no he shoots his mouth off. I will play even harder against him and the Wooley camp on Saturday now. His rags to riches story of tough luck in the bayou has now morphed into one of overexposure and arrogance. How about you Steve? Does this not make you want to take a stand against also?
George in Tampa

Posted by george Quinn Jun 1, 2009 5:45:00 PM

willow_hour says:

With nothing better to do with my time, I recently reviewed the videos of the last 25 Belmonts. What I found most intriguing is that, with two exceptions, the eventual winner was ahead at the quarter pole (the exceptions were Victory Gallop catching Real Quiet in the last stride in 1998 and Birdstone wearing down Smarty Jones in 2004; Rags to Riches was also ahead at the 1/4 pole in 2007, but admittedly she was all out with Curlin the entire stretch drive). In fact, frequently the eventual winner was in the lead at the 1/2-mile pole.

The point is: deep closers are a poor bet in the Belmont. Feel free to put your money on Mine That Bird, but he will be overbet and he won't win.

Posted by Willow Hour Jun 1, 2009 3:16:16 PM

sean says:

mlnj -

I disagree 1000% with your notion that multiple Grade Is is a bad thing. You have huge audiences & exposure on Triple Crown days...its worth exploiting it and advertising your product. If they run the Acorn on June 13th...no one cares, the betting handle is less than half and it certainly doesn't get aired on ESPN.

I don't think horse racing has to pander to the casual fan but if they want to grow the number of fans, you start by making the big days, the best days of the year.

Posted by Sean Jun 1, 2009 2:42:00 PM

sean says:

I agree that 40,000 is way too low of an estimate. The casual fan will still be drawn to Borel & Mine That Bird...i think the Afleet Alex year is a good barometer. They were both plucky horses with good backstories, a big Triple Crown win, a jockey that got some pub and no Triple Crown on the line.

And the early forecast is 70&sunny. We haven't had a perfect weather day like that since 2002. And in 2001, a picture perfect weather day drew 73,857 for Point Given's romp.

I would guess at least 60,000+ if the weather holds. I think you can throw out 2007 because that was the Triple Crown season where Barbaro had just died, the Derby winner wasn't there, the weather was awful and Curlin wasn't winning anyone over with his jailed co-owners.

Posted by Sean Jun 1, 2009 2:38:39 PM

speigal says:

40-45,000 tops. And that will be the "announced" attendance.
There is zero buzz in NY regarding the race. They might do better if they lowered the parking (10 bucks) and addmission (10 bucks grandstand, 20 for the clubhouse) prices.

Posted by Speigal Jun 1, 2009 11:19:09 AM

bob_m says:

let me be the first to invite the lovely lady rachel to the travers party august 29th at the spa !!!!!

it would be a great story and would make for a memorable travers...

lets get on the bandwagon right now !!

Posted by bob m. Jun 1, 2009 10:44:33 AM

bill_clifton_nj says:

Steve thanks for all the great info in your blogs and love the pictures of your greyhounds. As Allen stated I too have seen programs that indicate the rail postions in the pps. I think this is a vital handicapping tool and would love to see it added to the DRF.

Posted by Bill_Clifton NJ Jun 1, 2009 9:12:16 AM

don_reed says:

Never mind the "since-1978-drought-no-Triple-Crown-winner" razzmatazz.

A much more serious drought has yet to be conquered.

For 140 years, no jockey has won a personal Triple Crown involving more than one horse.

This has created a century-plus of heartbreak & disillusionment.

Billions have been bet & lost on the proposition.

Carnegie himself wagered - & lost - so heavily on the possibility of it occurring in 1901, he was forced to come swiftly to terms with the rapacious J.P. Morgan & sell his steel mills for a song.

The last time that the drought could have ended, World War II was suspended for a entire week in June 1942, so that fans could root on Jabber McWhackie, the last jockey eligible for this racing honor.

Adolf - hedging his bets on Stalingrad - even toyed with the idea of suing for peace during the post-race euphoria - should Jabber pull it off.

Who knows? A German Peace Corps might have been created in the aftermath of the joy that would have circled the globe. Poverty would have been wiped out by 1954. Sergeant Shriver in 1961 would have been the head of MGM.

But Jabber lost, by a nose. And to this day, still, zip.

Cauthen was eligible. And then that inexplicable pixie got on the boat to England, skipping the Belmont altogether- which prolonged the 1970's economic depression by another decade.

So. Here we go, again.

The fate of General Motors & Chrysler & Italy's Silvio Berlusconi are riding on The Withers Of Borel.

I hope you like Japanese cars & monogamy.

Posted by Don Reed Jun 1, 2009 2:48:43 AM

unitas says:

Darren, I don't mean to nitpick, but Afleet Alex finished 3rd in the '05 Kentucky Derby...I know this for a fact because this was the largest exacta I had ever scored before or since, a $10,000.00 exacta return having Giacomo on top of Closing Argument. This race('05 KD) is the reason I will never play the future pools for the Derby again(unless they offer wagering on every eligible 3yo as a seperate betting interest), for I had Giacomo and Closing Argument in the future pools, yet they were BOTH paying out larger returns on the day of The Derby. Due to the declaration of Rachel Alexandra and the economic woes still being felt, I think no more than 50K will be on hand for The Belmont this year, even less if the weather is an issue...

Posted by Unitas May 31, 2009 6:48:30 PM

darren says:

Had a great day (and a profitable one) at the 2005 Belmont when Afleet Alex trounced the field at even money.
It was hot and humid and if I remember correctly, about 64,000.
Similar to this year, IMO, jockey error killed the opportunity for a Triple Crown. Jeremy Rose angled Afleet Alex in with one furlong to go in the Derby, finished second and I think Mike Smith swung too wide in the Preakness this year.
Perhaps my criticism of those rides is more a function of desperately wanting to see a Triple Crown winner. Such is racing.

Posted by Darren May 31, 2009 2:03:04 PM

tom says:

Steve, thank you for your blog. Your statistics are excellent, your analysis right on the mark. I find the blog to be both refreshing and informative.

Even without Rachel Alexandra, this Belmont is intriguing in that it has more horses with the "right" mile and a half pedigree than not.
Any analysis on fresh horses winning the Belmont Vs tired horses would be welcome at this stage when I am deciding between Mine that Bird's durability and Dunkirk's pedigee and talent. thanks,
T

Posted by Tom May 31, 2009 11:00:04 AM

walt says:

Peewee:

I would not go as low as 40,000 myself. I know only 46,000 came to 2007 Belmont when Rags to Riches won, but there were extenuating circumstances with mass transit all over the place in New York that day that probably prevented several thousand people from making the trip to Belmont.

I'll say probably between 50-60,000 if there are no problems with public transportation like two years ago.

Posted by Walt May 31, 2009 10:30:26 AM

allen_klayman says:

On an unrelated subject, I noticed whle at the track yesterday at Churchill Downs that their simulcast program now includes a designation (in feet) for rail position in turf races and the run up from the starting gate to the first pole. Will the Racing Form start publishing those figures also?

Posted by Allen Klayman May 31, 2009 10:09:24 AM

mlnj says:

BTW, the 3/5 estimate was based partially upon all the hype for Borel. I see this as more of a Cannonero (7/10) situation even though MTB didn't win the Preakness. Go for Gin, after all, did lose to the horse he lost to in the Preakness. The Preakness winner isn't going to be taking much money next Saturday.

Posted by ml/nj May 31, 2009 8:47:33 AM

mlnj says:

Regarding the "undercard," I've said it before and I'm saying it again, I think it is a big mistake to run multiple Grade I's on the same card. The message is that the other races are second class (or worse) and not really something worth paying much attention to. When I saw Amberiod win in 1966 the Belmont was the only Stake race on the card. There were even (Can you believe it!) Claiming races. I still do not think there is anything wrong with a Claiming race, but I am definitely in the minority here. Too many people have been conditioned by these Marquee days and it hasn't been good for racing.

About the bathrooms, I'd forgotten. It's certainly has not been the norm, so reminding people probably about it isn't going to help.

Posted by ml/nj May 31, 2009 8:33:38 AM

haelaih says:

3/5 would be real low.
Go for Gin was 3/2 in a 6 horse field. Unbridled 1.1 to 1 in a 9 h. Ferdinand dismissed at 7/2 in a 10 h and Foolish Pleasure (who ran honest) was 1.3 to 1 in a 9 horse field. So w/o the Triple Crown on the line it seems the logical one might not be as over-bet as you would think. He won't get my money, however.

Posted by haelaih May 31, 2009 12:20:24 AM

dan_mackenzie says:

How about a collective ranking of horses that ran in all 3 races ? Musket Man is the 2009 overlooked achiever - at least from the perspective of casual observers who have heard of Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird.

Posted by Dan MacKenzie May 31, 2009 12:20:10 AM

sean says:

Mlng --

This is my 11th straight Belmont...I really enjoy how the undercard has dramatically improved with the addition of the Acorn. I don't remember 4 grade Is when I started going in 1999.

But NYRA cracks me up, they always wait until after the Preakness to send out tickets even though they asks for applications in March.

Lets hope this year they can figure out how to keep the toilets running and water available past the 8th race. What a complete and total disaster last year was in every sense of the word.

Posted by Sean May 31, 2009 12:09:27 AM

george_quinn says:

I think we all feel as if Mine That Bird will run his race. But does anyone else smell a 44.00 horse? I just know racing is never as easy as it looks. I am not saying I have that horse. I had Dunkirk hard in the Derby and am almost obligated to play him again if it comes up dry. So if the 44.00 horse happens it will not be me.
But as long as I have been around this game, this Belmont smells like a Commendable or D'Tara. I cannot say why just a feelin. Steve?
George in Tampa

Posted by george Quinn May 30, 2009 10:49:42 PM

peewee says:

Looks like a potential fire sale on seats at the Belmont from scalpers without RA and no TC on the line . 40,000 if its a nice day.

Posted by peewee May 30, 2009 7:58:21 PM

gofor_broke says:

I see Cat Moves is entered MTO on Wednesday at Belmont. I want to see her run again.
Cat Moves and Light Green might give us a 43 half in the Test this year.

Posted by gofor broke May 30, 2009 7:38:00 PM

ponyman says:

Diamond Diva-WIN ONLY

Posted by ponyman May 30, 2009 7:22:43 PM

mlnj says:

Interesting! Not since I've been going; and he'll probably be 3/5! This will be my 44th Consecutive Belmont. (My tickets finally arrived today. What would the NYRA have done if there had been a wildcat walkout at the Postal "Service"?)

Posted by ml/nj May 30, 2009 6:02:42 PM

Comments to this entry are closed.

About

Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He recently released an instructional DVD titled "Exotic Tickets," and is the author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."

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