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Crist Blog | June 07, 2009
Belmont Day Recap
Belmont Stakes Day was a superb afternoon of top-flight racing and oustanding performances, though not so much in the main event itself. Don't get me wrong: I'm selfishly delighted the Belmont turned out the way it did, as I was alive to the eventual top three finishers in pick-4's and Summer Bird was the best result for my bankroll, but this Belmont was weirdly run and comes up a distinctly slow one once you modify the time of the race for the exceptionally quick racing surface Saturday afternoon.
The Belmont earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 100, the second slowest (Da'Tara got a 99 last year) since the figures were first published in 1991 and seven points below the average winning BSF during that time. If you want to be literal-minded about it, the Belmont was only the sixth fastest race of the day (and only the third best of the day by a 3-year-old colt) behind the winning efforts of Fabulous Strike (111 in the True North), Munnings (110 in the Woody Stephens), Just Ben (109 in a N1x allowance), Gio Ponti (106 in the Manhattan), and Diamondrella (104 in the Just a Game).
Belmont Day was about as perfect an afternoon as you could ask for, with sunny skies, temperatures in the low 70's, and a main track that was in astoundingly good condition after two preceding days of heavy rain. The first extraordinary performance came just seven minutes after noon, when Just Ben stamped himself a very serious 3-year-old sprinter with a breathtaking 13 3/4-length victory in 1:21.18. This Zayat/Zito Speightstown colt had looked good winning a Gulfstream maiden race by seven, had less than ideal trips in his last two, but jumped to a new level here in his fifth career start.
In the third, a maiden race at a mile, I got a completely undeserved good start to my wagering day when I made a seven-horse dime-super box ($84) because I thought even-money Convocation was being overbet. He won laughing, and with the third and fourth favorites also hitting the frame I wondered whether I'd get a $1,680-for-$2 payoff to get my $84 back, but somehow the super paid $6,997.
The stakes action, and the pick-6, began with the True North in the 6th race. Fabulous Strike and Forever Together looked like such standouts in the first two legs that I crafted a play leaning heavily on both of them -- the "main" ticket was an all a/b 1x1x5x5x5x3 for $750 -- with the thought that I could then reload in the 8-11 pick four if they tanked, or could use the pick-4 as a hedge if they both got home:
Fabulous Strike was fabulous in victory. The horse capable of bothering him early, Sixthirteen, broke poorly but then rushed up crazily and pushed him through an opening half-mile in an ungodly 43.62. Fabulous Strike shook him off and had a three-length lead after five frlongs in 55.28, but now Benny the Bull was gaining and for a moment it looked like he might reel him in -- but only for a moment, as Fabulous Strike had enough left to win by a length and a quarter in 1:07.85. It was a brave and well-deserved victory for Fabulous Strike and also a very encouraging comeback for Benny the Bull, returning from knee surgery and 11 months on the sidelines.
Obviously, I completely missed Diamondrella in the Just a Game, not that it would have mattered if I had made her one of my four C's behind Forever Together. I've always liked Diamondrella, now a winner of six straight, but I perceived her as a turf sprinter making her graded-stakes debut against much tougher than she'd ever faced. In retrospect, there was no reason to think this 5-year-old Rock of Gibraltar mare shouldn't have relished a mile as much as the Europeans I instead used as backups. In any case, while taking nothing away from Diamondrella, Forever Together had an awful trip -- blocked behind a wall at the top of the stretch and then unfortunately steered to the rail. A highly unfortunate pick-6 result, as it turned out, since I had the rest of it. I understand it would have paid a lot less than the $969,345 that it did had Forever Together won, but I wouldn't have thrown back a $40k payoff.
So I reloaded for the pick-4, putting in basically the same tickets I had in the pick-6 with a few more C's thrown in for insanity-insurance.
The sequence began with the Woody Stephens, and Munnings was tremendous in victory. Granted, he raced on the inside of the track, which may have been the best place to be all day, but he turned in an explosive performance. The pace was mild for the day (45.01) and Munnings was fourth behind it awaiting room on the turn, then exploded through the opening that finally developed and was smashing opening a a 1 1/2-length lead in 1:08.89 and stopping the timer in 1:20.63 while beating previously undefeated Everyday Heroes by 5 1/4 lengths. Munnings, a Coolmore/Pletcher production is (like Just Ben) a son of Speightstown and is being pointed for the King's Bishop at Saratoga.
Gabby's Golden Gal's Acorn victory obviously blew up all the mutirace payoffs. While technically, the seventh choice in a field of nine, she was one of five horses who went off at between 10-1 and 13-1 behind favorites Justwhistledixe (4-5) and Funny Moon (4-1). Once Dream Play didn't show up, Gabby was loose on the lead, and no one could catch her despite a slow final quarter of 25.79. Justwhistledixie just didn't have the sharpness she did in Florida this winter while again defeating Casanova Move. Livin Lovin should advance off a bumpy fourth in her first start since November.
GGG is by Medaglia d'Oro, as is Rachel Alexandra. So while Birdstone has sired the winners of the Derby and Belmont in his first crop, Medaglia d'Oro (bought last week by Darley) has sired the winners of the Kentucky Oaks, Preakness and Acorn.
The Manhattan confirmed the arrival of Gio Ponti as the best American grass male in training with the possible exception of Einstein. Gio Ponti now has back-to-back Grade 1 victories on two coasts, nailing Ventura to win the Kilroe Mile last time out and successfully negotiating two extra furlongs yesterday while showing the same powerful late kick. But the most pleasing sight in the race was seeing 10-year-old Better Talk Now getting up for third -- edging Court Vision, whom Ramon Domiguez got off Better Talk Now (after 20 straight rides together) to ride. It was Better Talk Now's 50th career start, and he joins what has to be a very short list of 10-year-olds who have hit the board in Grade 1 races.
On to the Belmont, where there were 5 to 7 pick-6 tickets alive to Charitable Man, Dunkirk and Mine That Bird and one each to Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird and Miner's Escape. (There would have been a $989k carryover at Belmont wednesday had Mr. Hot Stuff, Luv Gov, Flying Private or Brave Victory won.) My $2 pick-4 to Mine That Bird was paying $5838 and I had dollars to Dunkirk ($6875 for $2) and Summer Bird ($17,085 for $2.)
Dunkirk's going to the lead was a surprise to me, as was Borel's premature and overconfident wide sweep to the lead around the turn on Mine That Bird. As flawless as his Derby and Preakness rides were, this one made no sense. Borel later said the rail wasn't the best part of the track, but I'd be interested to hear how he came to that conclusion since he didn't bother to get a mount on the undercard (and hadn't ridden in a race of any kind while making the celebrity rounds in Manhattan all week.) Maybe it didn't matter, and Mine That Bird was just a little knocked out from the Derby and Preakness, but he would have had a much better chance of winning had he received the perfect inside-out ride that Desormeaux gave Summer Bird. Whatever the case, Mine That Bird regressed from Beyers of 105 and 106 in the Derby and Preakness to a 96 in the Belmont.
I think we can all agree that while this Triple Crown was entertaining and dramatic, it was not a vintage year for quality except when Rachel Alexandra stepped outside her division. That's no knock on Mine That Bird, a likeable and nifty gelding who emerged from the series as the clear leader of the 3-year-old males and who I hope will be racing for years to come. I also think we may have to be more careful these days than in the past about juding these crops in early June because these 3-year-olds are now so lightly raced in comparison to the way they used to be. After all, the first, second and fourth finishers in the Belmont were all making only their fifth career starts, and still have plenty of room for improvement.
On the other hand, both the figs and the gut say that this year's 3-year-old males who contested the Triple Crown races would have been fighting it out for minor awards the last five weeks behind the best efforts by Big Brown, Curlin and Street Sense, Barbaro and Bernardini, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Empire Maker and Funny Cide.
Posted by Steven Crist Jun 7, 2009 7:53:46 PM | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
noel_michaels says:
The NYRA steward stand is a pathetic place.
In regards to the horrific call made by the NYRA stewards last Saturday, June 27 in the final race of the day at Belmont Park (Race 10). Sadly, this unjust takedown is all the more appalling due to the fact that it was certainly not the first absolutely terrible call made by the NYRA stewards in the last several years, and it definitely won’t be the last. New York’s stewards are a national laughing stock amongst bettors from coast-to-coast, and once again on June 27, they proved it.
This latest heinous abomination occurred when the rightful winner of Race 10 at Belmont on June 27, Western Connection, was disqualified and placed second behind the runner-up, favored Separatist, for a phantom interference in the stretch.
What race, exactly were the stewards watching? Certainly not the same race I watched, as well as the other 230 flabbergasted participants of the Belmont $80,000 Handicapping Challenge last weekend. The horseplayers in the room at the time, all seasoned players, were shaking their heads – including the lucky few with bets on the horse who benefited from the DQ. The question I heard most often was said mostly in jest, but in this case seemed fair: Did the stewards have a bet on the runner up?
Anyone who watched that race knows that the horses could have gone around the track again and the runner-up was never, ever, going to get by the winner of that race. Alan Garcia, the rider of the winning Western Connection, dove down to the rail when pulling away from the field past mid-stretch. Ramon Dominguez, the rider of runner-up Separatist, then a length-and-a-half behind Western Connection, had no hole on the inside and redirected his mount toward the outside of Western Connection in a too late attempt to pass as the wire approached. His bid failed and he settled for second. He lodged no objection.
Then, from out of nowhere, the stewards posted the Inquiry sign and then proceeded to deliberate for 10 minutes before reversing the order of finish in an inexplicable move that had horseplayers all around me shaking their heads.
The fact is this. The best horse won the race. The second best horse came in second. The supposed “incident” did not alter the final order of finish, nor did it cost the second horse any placing in the race (the second horse was second, and he was always going to be second). The race was over and the crowd was heading to the exits (or to the mutuel windows to cash their tickets on the winner). The stewards interjected their will on this race’s outcome with no just cause, and the best horse in the race and rightful winner was thereby denied his deserved victory.
Bettors have gotten far to used to this scenario and similar ones like it over the course of the last several years, when New York’s stewards have again and again proven themselves to be, by far, the worst in the country.
Until changes are made in the New York stewards stand, bettors at Belmont, Aqueduct, and Saratoga can no longer count on any level of integrity in the outcomes of the races in cases where the stewards interject themselves. This, unfortunately is something for us bettors to consider before placing our next wagers at NYRA racetracks.
Posted by Noel Michaels Jun 30, 2009 4:31:24 PM
evan_gewirtz says:
Bochalls,
I arrived in Provideniya, Siberia early this morning, and, per your excellent DRF newstand tip, I took a private jet a few thousand miles to Irkutsk to pick up the newspaper copy of the Form.
The few thousand mile trip was worth it, as I really feel more comfortable with the newspaper copy. The owner of the newstand in Irkutsk remembers you and sends his regards.
Since NYRA and Nassau OTB are still fueding and there is no cablevision signal of the NYRA races to home or office in Nassau County,I've decided to stay here in Siberia to watch the NYRA races via Slingbox. There is truly nothing like the serenity of watching races from Belmont Park during the Siberian summer.
Steve,
The track was indeed slower the first three races from Belmont on Saturday. That was so, because the track was backraked. A backraked track almost always yields slower times than a fully harrowed track. Additionally, the track surface has a distinctly different look when it is harrowed straight through as opposed to backraked (sealed and then partially harrowed.)
Posted by Evan Gewirtz Jun 10, 2009 6:49:36 PM
ryan says:
Steve - another miserable move by NYRA on Saturday to run the G1 Ogden Phipps at 2:36 in the afternon! People on the west coast not even out of bed yet. It's the 4th race so will be out of the P6. Reason obviously being the 1-20 Darley entry including Music Note. Give them one free square and keep the Grade 1 horses in the late afternoon.
Posted by Ryan Jun 10, 2009 4:42:54 PM
arcstats says:
It started as a trickle, but now it seems to be flowing freely. I'm talking about posters rooting for the start of Saratoga. Has everyone forgotten how dreadful the majority of last year's meet was (especially the second half). Steve you might want to make available last July and August archieves to remind everyone what's in store.
Folks, the current New York product is as good as it's going to get. Other than a bunch of unraced 2YO's, there are no farms or barns full of quality horses waiting to race upstate. Sorry for the dose of truth, but the only thing that changes when racing goes to Saratoga anymore are people at the track.
Posted by Arcstats Jun 10, 2009 3:16:09 PM
plod_boy_jj says:
www.racingflow.com pegs the Belmont Day dirt BIAS as a neutral -30. Pennington wired with a beneficial -164 FLOW. Gio Ponti & Summer Bird closed while getting favorable FLOWs of +107 & +133, respectively. Wanda’s Double was the only vs. FLOW winner, going wire-to-wire despite FLOW +116.
Posted by Plod Boy JJ Jun 10, 2009 1:32:27 PM
virgin_queen says:
i'm not in the chemical biz nor am i a longtime handicapper but the so called plastic surfaces being " unhandicapable" is b.s.
Posted by Virgin Queen Jun 10, 2009 11:22:17 AM
unitas says:
It was just announced that the once mighty Overbrook Farm is dispersing it's stock, adding another chapter to the sad tale of once prominent, dominant farms going by the wayside. Sad indeed. I figure the pensioning of Storm Cat is the major reason why Overbrook, led by it's late founders(William T. Young) son, has decide to cease it's operation after it's stock is sold. Depressing. Saratoga can't get here fast enough. Sigh.
Posted by Unitas Jun 10, 2009 12:56:38 AM
english_channel says:
Great blogging here as usual. Hoping you keep this going for a long long time Steve.
I've read 'EB' a couple of times and think I have a decent handle on the strategies but I haven't been getting to the right horses often enough. 'Betting on myself' revealed some of your process but I'd like to know how you go about it now and how it's evolving for you. I read alot of the drf press books and think they are great. I'm thinking I'm going to get the 07 expo dvd set, it sounds like a great line up and like it could help me out. Are there any plans for another Expo? Keep up the great work, looking forward to seeing you at Toga.
Posted by English Channel Jun 9, 2009 8:24:43 PM
dogs_up says:
I've been in the chemical biz and the horse playing game for a long time. The recent adjustments for plastic to Andy numbers and the coming Breeders Cup on plastic will continue to show that plastic surfaces are "unhandicapable" events. Plastic is made by getting Mother Nature to turn her back while the substance is being manufactured or designed as a molecule on the lab bench. Chemistry or track chemistry expands or contracts as heat/sun,cold temps. water or air pollutants affect it. The environment also degrades the chemcial composition with age. Give me dirt racing or give me no racing at all.
Posted by dogs up Jun 9, 2009 4:14:56 PM
mr_b52 says:
What was up with the "no tailgating" policy Saturday? I wasn't at the track but started getting angry text messages early in the morning from friends who were there. Apparently people entering the back parking lots were met with giant "No Tailgating" signs as they entered. For years I was part of a group that would rent an RV and make a big production out of Belmont Day. I guess hooligans like us are no longer welcome ($1,000 per capita 40-something males).
Maybe NYRA is onto something here, maybe the NFL will adopt a similar policy this coming season so they can achieve the same level of popularity racing has enjoyed in recent years. You've gotta love the racing industry, it's just a non-stop hit parade of good ideas. Way to go NYRA!
Posted by Mr. B-52 Jun 9, 2009 2:59:31 PM
robert_ginnerty says:
We should remember that the mile and one half Belmont is a classic distance race. drf should use the european time- form ratings for non speed racing on the turf at this distance and the Belmont.
Posted by robert ginnerty Jun 9, 2009 2:31:10 PM
joe says:
Steve,nice hit on the pick-4
It's a shame the takeout is so high at New York.
Had the takeout been 15% like Monmouth you would have received almost another $1,300.00.
Which get's me to asking an important question for me.
Should the DRF promote lower takeout to It's customers?
Thanks
Joe
Posted by joe Jun 9, 2009 1:38:56 PM
paul_s says:
***2 questions ??what was the comment on Siro's and the handicapping at saratoga this yr??! and I am coming up from Philly for the Whitney- any advise from anyone and how long of a trip from philly to SSprings and any help on the route to race heaven??
thanks!***
My comment was that Mr.Crist often does a prerace (10:45 A.M.) session of handicapping the day's races... in past years it was held at Siros restaurant - across the street from the track. For this year, the seminar is being switched to inside the race track at a location called the carousel.
To get to Saratoga, take either Route 287 or the Garden State Parkway (north) to their respective end; get on the New York State Thruway, get off at exit 24, then take the Northway (Route 87 North) to exit 14.
It's a pretty simple drive, and well worth it. I did it for 30 years from New Jersey until moving up here 6 years ago.
And, it takes me around 5 hours to get from Saratoga to Columbus, NJ (across the bridge from PA) if that helps any.
Posted by Paul S Jun 9, 2009 12:48:54 PM
paul_s says:
A couple of points to ponder, if anyone has any comments... First off, I see Kent Desormeaux gets lots of negative publicity - some of it deserved IMO - but, still, he does win races, often in bunches. OTOH, what about Julien Leparoux? He lost on two heavy favorites Saturday, and it could be argued that he could possibly be the main reason (poorly placed positioning of his runners). I know he wins often in KY, but as far as I recall, his record in NY is less than stellar. Should he be avoided in big races?
And, what about the DRF's bizarre morning line in the Manhattan? While it didn't matter - in the least - how did they have Marsh Side 3-5, and the rest from 10-1 (the #2 entry) and the others close to 20-1? Isn't the DRF "the Bible" for horse racing - how can they screw up a ML like that?
Posted by Paul S Jun 9, 2009 12:29:25 PM
michael_cusortelli says:
Speaking of Gabby's Golden Gal, did anyone (besides me) notice that the filly has a Sunland Park race in her PPs?
Chalk up another one for New Mexico!
Posted by Michael Cusortelli Jun 8, 2009 10:25:47 PM
gk_in_wisc says:
Congrats to Steve on another pick 4 and I agree with everyone... you need the book and you need to re-read as you go and as you flip from Pic 6 to Pic4! Great job Steve it is a logical betting theory.
Best news of all is-- we can now say NEXT MONTH is SARATOGA!!
2 questions ??what was the comment on Siro's and the handicapping at saratoga this yr??! and I am coming up from Philly for the Whitney- any advise from anyone and how long of a trip from philly to SSprings and any help on the route to race heaven??
thanks!
Posted by gk_in wisc Jun 8, 2009 9:46:05 PM
paul_s says:
Thank you, Mr. Crist, for clarifying - especially in such a timely manner - the "BC" & "CX" designations for me... thought I was missing an important point somewhere.
And, to all of the other fans who read this blog:
RUN, don't walk, as fast as you can, to purchase Mr. Crist's book EXOTIC BETTING (DRF Press, Copyright 2006) - it's an absolute *must have* for everyone who bets anything (PK 4s, PK6, daily doubles, exactas, superfectas, etc.) in racing. While it "gave me a headache" (lol) the first time I read it, the wealth of knowledge/odds/numbers/theories in all aspects of racing is absolutely incredible. I truly hope everyone who has ever read this blog has a copy.
Thanks Steve.
Posted by Paul S Jun 8, 2009 4:22:24 PM
jpc says:
Thanks for the additional info, Steve.
So, if my math is correct, you had 383 combos and invested $524 in the Pick 4?
Posted by JPC Jun 8, 2009 4:00:36 PM
steven_crist says:
shoop: You're leaving out tickets -- you needed to have an ABAA and a BAAA. You need to treat B's as C's first -- using them with 3 A's -- and THEN make tickets with two B's.
Paul_s: I didn't mean to confuse you -- I had horses listed as "bc" or "cx" because I hadn't finalized a play before scratches and hadn't decided which way to lean. Once I decided to downgrade all b's to c's in the first two legs, I upgraded "bc" horses to b's later on.
In the pick-4, I pretty much used the same designations as in the pick-6, but pressed some combos a little heavier(which is why I was alive for $2 to MTB and $1 to SB and Dunkirk.) I went $4 on AAAA, $2 on 3A/1B, and $1 on 2A/2B and 3A/1C.
ml/nj: You're right -- the ride worked out perfectly, but it wasn't flawless.
Posted by steven_crist Jun 8, 2009 3:54:01 PM
jeff_tatus says:
kc... If you don't already have the book "Exotic Betting" I suggest that you get it before you spend another dime in wagering horses. It doesn't just work the first time you read it, it will work every time you read it in the future.
The true value of "EB" isn't fully realized until you need it again... to "get back on track" when what you're doing isn't working or making sense.
Posted by Jeff Tatus Jun 8, 2009 2:59:24 PM
92lneck says:
I'm seeing a fair amount of "Summer Bird" trashing on the web in regards to his win on Saturday. All I can say is that his pedigree was VERY much in his favor for a mile and a half and if you watch a replay of the Arkansas Derby, he was coming like a freight train down the track. He had a wide trip in the Ky Derby and still finished a respectable 6th. It was NO surprise to me that he won the Belmont. Add in a nice trip, 5 weeks off and a solid ride by Kent and that was the icing on the cake.
Posted by 92LNeck Jun 8, 2009 2:52:32 PM
joe_s says:
Grandstanding
-Tremendous long lines for the ladies rooms in the grandstand, but go as you please for the boys.
-Ever notice the water bubblers in the grandstand aren't half as cold as the ice cold burbling available in the clubhouse and the spouting is no contest.
-With Mine That Bird seizing command at the top of the stretch the roar of the crowd crescendoed, but Desormeaux was only launching his bid, the winning "Belmont Balcony Move" surprising most of the 50,000.
Posted by Joe S. Jun 8, 2009 2:49:11 PM
aparagon4u says:
The most unpleasing sight for me was Better Talk Now nailing Court Vision for third. I had a Gio Ponti-Marsh Side-Court Vision trifecta. Also why is that when a race has several need the lead types, and I play against the speed, everyone takes back and lets a horse steal the race? It happened with Gabby's Golden Girl (Dream Play where were you?) and Tuscan Evening at Hollywood (Bahama Mama where were you?).
Lenny
Posted by aparagon4u Jun 8, 2009 1:42:05 PM
pattydaleure says:
Great score in the Pick 4!
Also, you pointed out before the race that Summer Bird had a lot of upside being lightly raced.
Boy, what upside! Still, running only a 100 BSF makes me regret that we lost Quality Road and I Want Revenge from the Triple Crown Trail. Even tough-as-nails Musket Man might have won on Saturday. What's the old saying? Half of success is just showing up?
Nice job, as always. And be sure to give our Stephen Foster Day at CD a mention this coming weekend.
Posted by pattyDaleure Jun 8, 2009 1:04:03 PM
arcstats says:
Thank god the triple crown process is over with. So what did we learn from this year's edition?
First off, one of the primary foundations you must live by as a horsplayer was again validated - "If you missed the wedding, don't show up for the funeral". The only players that had a right to bet MTB @ 1.25 were players who bet him in the derby. Why would anyone take a 95.56% reduction in price on MTB when he and the entire field was facing yet another set of unknowns, similar to what every horse in the derby faces? If you took the 1.25 you really had to believe in the recent history of MTB, yet you ignored the recent history of the race itself. Ouch.
Second, the entire series gets more confusing every year by the lack of racing experience by the participants. When the winner is eligible for NW1 prior to the race, one has to believe you are playing with explosives.
So hopefully everyone has learned (or is learning) not to put so much effort into future "Derby Trails" or Triple Crown races. Too dangerous to one's bankroll. Too many other valid wagering opprotunities besides these 3 races (like the "free" 12.40 exacta of Fabulous Strike over Benny the Bull 5 races earlier).
Finally on a lighter note, how funny would it be to see Summer Bird show up in a Thursday night NW2 race at Louisiana Downs? Go old school - run him through his conditions. He'd probably be 1-20, and in all likelyhood another "funeral" would take place.
Posted by Arcstats Jun 8, 2009 12:26:00 PM
sean says:
Thanks for the quick response Steve. It just seems odd to me that it was only 1 better than Munnings and 2 better than Just Ben.
Benny the Bull may have impressed me the most on the whole card coming off of a layoff like that.
Posted by Sean Jun 8, 2009 11:12:05 AM
paul_s says:
Mr. Crist,
Congratulations on your latest PK 4 score, and thank you for your blog, and sharing insight/picks with us fans. Unfortunately, in my case on this occasion, I only hit 3 of 4 - missing Gabby - even though I had remarked to the missus that Gabby was an offspring of Medaglia D'Oro, (as was Rachel, Payton D'Oro, etc.), coupled with the fact that you did mention Gabby in your JUN 6 pre-analysis.
However, what I am confused about is this, (and have rechecked your fantastic book EXOTIC BETTING - and didn't see the answer to this): In your prerace analysis, some runners were labeled "BC" or "CX," and I didn't understand where to include these runners... was this merely an early diagnosis, and, say, Gabby turned out to be a "B" (not a "C")?? And, the "CX" runners in The Belmont, were they played at all, or NOT included in any tickets?? These double letter designations confuse me, and I don't know what to do with them.
At any rate, thank you again for your guidance and consideration to your army of fans. I look forward to seeing you in Saratoga, and hope you will be taking part in the pre-race prattle, now at the carousel, instead of Siros.
Continued good luck in the future.
Posted by Paul S Jun 8, 2009 10:33:30 AM
emd says:
I will say one thing -- the little plain brown gelding showed up in every race, unlike all "your" over-hyped horses!
Posted by EMD Jun 8, 2009 10:13:41 AM
bochalls says:
Enough of the Desormeaux bashing already. He won four on Saturday. He now has 3 Ky Derby wins, 2 Preakness wins, and a Belmont. Yet he's a "no trying bum"? Please... go look up the SAR jock stats and you'll see he runs 2nd/3rd as often as anyone else....the best news of the weekend,IMO, is that maybe some STAMINA sires will get another look from the breeders. Birdstone certainly has stamped himself as a classic sire. Tiznow is another who gets long distance offspring. Enough with Elusive Quality and Distorted Humor...has a sire ever gotten 2 different winners of a Triple Crown race in the same year???
Posted by bochalls Jun 8, 2009 9:59:44 AM
shoop says:
Steve (or anyone),
Using the ABC system, and having some small success, I am hoping for your thoughts on constructing P4 tickets base on my Belmont P4 (races 8-11).
We had an all A ticket as well as 3 all A's and 1 C. We only had B horses in the 8th and 9th races, which led me to place a ticket of BBAA. The problem is that if the first 2 legs come AB or BA, I am on the outside looking in (because I only have a ticket with 2 B's).
I figured my option(s) were:
1. make all B's either A's or C's (significantly increasing the cost... for me anyway), or...
2. (my chosice) leave as is, and have backup P3 ticket once the 1st leg is complete (if an A gets home, use BAA in the P3 or if a B gets home, come back with an AAA in the P3) as savers.
How might you approach? Total investment was $168 for the way I played, almost double if I make the B's all A's.
Thanks.
Posted by Shoop Jun 8, 2009 9:17:02 AM
jpc says:
Steve -
Great stuff, as always. I was there for my first Belmont on Saturday and it was an outstanding day.
I understand the AB and AC approach on the Pick 6 tickets. Can you outline the ticket structure for the Pick 4? Did you have all A's, one B, two B's and one C tickets?
And, how much did you invest in the Pick 4?
Thanks!
Posted by JPC Jun 8, 2009 9:14:23 AM
keith_longey says:
Oh, and the Belmont Winner will be back at home track Louisiana Downs, and Show Horse will probably be back in the barn at Sunland Park in the next week or so. Obviously, this crop of 3 year olds are as inferior as the circuits they do their daily work on, are they not?
Posted by Keith Longey Jun 8, 2009 8:57:15 AM
keith_longey says:
Steven:
My first impression immediately after the running of the Belmont was that Dunkirk had lived up to all the hoopla: he gave a valiant and staying effort in this race, and if it hadn't of been for the heated three horse duel out of the turn and down the stretch, no closer would have got by him
at the wire; he was that determined a horse.
Thankfully, I now stand corrected in my initial judgement. The Beyer came back as 100 for Summer Bird, and I suppose Dunkirk is back in the mid-90s BSF wise. Obviously, he is a horse that has REGRESSED from his 108 BSF in the Florida Derby Placing: I don't know how anyone would think of betting him again in, say, the Haskel, Jim Dandy, or Travers if/and when he goes there next. I mean, the Beyers don't lie, do they!
Posted by Keith Longey Jun 8, 2009 8:51:25 AM
luisbe says:
I'll upload later the Woodford although the original broadcasted video does not have audio (Durkin did not call the race, unbelievable!).
It'll be at: www.youtube.com/luisbelusi
Posted by Luisbe Jun 8, 2009 8:47:12 AM
raps07 says:
Great work on the pick4 Steve. I got caught believing Dream Play would force the pace. I think the hype on Dunkirk is over. Nice horse, not sure why on the lead, but no excuse. Calvin horrible ride. You are driving a nice horse, not a cadillac.
Posted by raps07 Jun 8, 2009 8:45:51 AM
mlnj says:
Steve:
I'm surprised that you would refer to Desormeaux ride as "perfect." Desormeaux was caught in a blind switch, fourth on the rail, and had to allow four horses to go by him in order to get outside. If he had lost by a length or two, it would have looked like a rather poor ride.
Posted by ml/nj Jun 8, 2009 8:26:49 AM
john_l says:
What a great day of racing on Belmont day. Terrific performances by Munnings and Fabulous Strike. Thanks to Fabulous Strike I don't have to see the name of Artax in the program at Belmont anymore. (long story)
I'm not so sure that riding on the under card on Belmont day would have helped Calvin, but didn't he miss a great opportunity in not getting a mount in the 1 1/2 mile Brooklyn the day before?
All in all the Triple Crown races this year remind me why I love this game so much.
Onward and upward.
Posted by John_L Jun 8, 2009 8:16:14 AM
c says:
"it is inexcusable for him [BOREL] not to have taken a couple of mounts prior to the belmont."
This may sound a little naive, but maybe there weren't a lot of available mounts to take. He wasn't going to ride in any other stakes race, because those horses already have established riders; Woolley didn't enter anything else (he doesn't really have much else); and, of course, east coast trainers use east coast riders. Most of the horses running in the early races had established riders. Maybe other mounts were promised to lesser known guys. I don't know who Borel's agent is, so I don't know what kind of relationship he has with the NY trainers. Like I said, I realize it sounds a little naive to guess that Borel's agent couldn't land a single early (non-stakes) mount, but maybe that's what happened.
Borel is certainly not the first out-of-town jockey to come in for 1 mount on a big day. The funny thing is, I used to hear a lot of handicappers get excited about such situations, thinking that the mount must be live for them to give up an entire day at their home base. Of course, that kind of thinking doesn't necessarily apply when we're talking about the favorite in the Belmont.
Posted by C Jun 8, 2009 7:53:47 AM
fake_maven says:
Steve: Happy to hear your super paid "super". In the Belmont my super felt a little "light". Am I just being greedy?
Posted by Fake Maven Jun 8, 2009 6:12:15 AM
clinton says:
Re: George Quinn
The APB put out for Gio Ponti has been called off. He been found over at the NYRA website where they thankfully have video replays of the race. But it's a shame why all three of the turf races this year weren't shown on live tv.
Posted by Clinton Jun 8, 2009 3:47:47 AM
spectacularbid says:
steve,
as always your blog is informative as well as interesting. i'm not a pick 6 player but i thought it extraordinary that there was only one winner. i thought the first 5 winners were all live and i've always thought that the belmont is the one grade 1 race that any sound router could win. certainly there have been great horses who have won it, but there are an ever increasing number of ordinary horses who have won who might not win an open allowance at charles town. summer bird therefore was eminently qualified off his nice maiden score over luv gov back in march at oaklawn. i don't think mine that bird was himself and i don't blame borel for the ride. i think the horse forced his hand. that being said it is inexcusable for him not to have taken a couple of mounts prior to the belmont.
Posted by spectacularbid Jun 8, 2009 1:22:03 AM
cigarvacation says:
I will repeat this to myself daily until next year's Belmont, "I will not bet a horse whose jockey is not familiar with Belmont or the race itself." Calvin's Heisman like banquet circuit training regimen single handedly cost MTB the race, period. Why would he not try to get mounts during the week at Belmont to familiarize himself with the track? Why not wait to do the media circuit until after the Belmont? Chip Wooley has no one to blame but himself for allowing Cal the mount after seeing Calvin was not focused. I know he won the Derby for him but if I am the trainer I certainly would have been having a serious discussion with Calvin's agent regarding Borel's state of mind. Another case of jockey unfamiliarity with riding in the Belmont, that cost a horse with no margin for error with his running style, the Belmont Stakes. At least the TC wasn't on the line.
Posted by cigarvacation Jun 8, 2009 12:51:55 AM
steven_crist says:
cayman01: The track was judged slower for the first three races on the card than for the later dirt races. This is why Just Ben/Munnings, and Convocation/GGG, received figures only 0/1 points apart depite roughly half-second differences in their raw times.
sean: It WAS an an incredible race and 111 is a very good figure -- something like the 5th highest in roughly 10,000 races run this year. But it just doesn't come up any higher than that applying the same variant as the other sprints later on the card.
Posted by steven_crist Jun 8, 2009 12:05:17 AM
walt says:
Dave:
Apparently, ABC blocking the signal was a contractual situation. I suspect someone thought that ABC was to show the Manhattan but didn't realize (as noted in the previous blog) that ABC could not show The Manhattan because of its sponsor, Woodford Reserve (I believe its for the same reason the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf was run after the Juvenile because it was on ESPN, where such sponsorship is allowed).
The other problem (also as noted in the previous blog) is that most viewers of Triple Crown race telecasts don't care at all about the undercard races, and ABC as I recall was heavily criticized by TV critics who don't follow the sport like we do for including the Acorn and Manhattan on the 2006 telecast.
Posted by Walt Jun 7, 2009 11:37:55 PM
sean says:
Few things..
1) How did Fabulous Strike only get a 111? The track record is 1:07.66, he runs at 1:07.85...that was an incredible race.
2) I don't think Borel should get criticized for the early move as much as he should for going SIX wide around the turn?!? I didnt notice how far out he was until the replacy but why the heck would go 6-wide in that race? It's not like he was boxed in...I can't imagine too many horses winning the Belmont with that horrific ride.
3) Awesome crowd, NYRA seemed to have their house in order for the most part and I had a great time. Especially compared to last year's debacle when the toilets stopped working and they ran out of water on a 100 degree day.
4) How about Kent D getting up for four winners and three in a row early in the day?
Posted by Sean Jun 7, 2009 11:35:49 PM
cayman01 says:
Gabby's Golden Girl gets the same BSF as Convocation? Come on! She ran faster than Convocation at every call!
AND compared to Munnings race, she would have only been beaten by him by 4 lengths at 7 furlongs. I figure this by projecting her 7 furlong time by dividing her final quarter (24.78) in half to get a 7F time of 1:21.40. It very well could have been a little faster than that.
God forbid a California horse gets a 100 BSF. I figure she should have had at least a 102.Beyer and his gang need to get over their anti-Cali horse bias. his numbers are looking worse and worse for accuracy every day. he's burning his own ship!
Posted by cayman01 Jun 7, 2009 11:15:17 PM
daved says:
Are we getting into another signal war? As soon as ABC came on the air the Belmont signal was blocked from all the online ADW platforms. All you got was a screen touting ABC coverage.
Posted by daved Jun 7, 2009 10:20:42 PM
steven_crist says:
kc, saratoga_mike:
In this case, there were six tickets -- the all-a's-and-b's main, and the five backup tickets combining each group of "C's" with only "A's" in the five other races:
6/5/1,2,4,6,8/2,4,5,8,9/1,2,5,6,12/2,4,7 = $750
1,3,5/5/1,2,4/4,8/1,5,12/7 = $108
6/1,3,6,8/1,2,4/4,8/1,5,12/7=$144
6/5/1,2,4/6,7/1,5,12/7=$36
6/5/1,2,4/4,8/3,8,9,11/7=$48
6/5/1,2,4/4,8/1,5,12/1,3,6,8,10=$180
kc: Using every horse on a single ticket would have been a 4x5x5x7x9x8 play costing $100,800 instead of the $1266 above. It would have yielded four $2452 consos rather than one, but a $91k net loss rather than an $1186 profit.
Posted by steven_crist Jun 7, 2009 10:16:40 PM
george_quinn says:
I almost forgot to mention Calvin Borel. Nice of him to use Belmont week for a vacation for him and his soon to be Mrs. BUT bad week to not ride a horse period. We all lose focus when we get some money. Maybe with the exception of Tiger Woods. Nice 10 cent super box Steve.
George in Tampa
Posted by george Quinn Jun 7, 2009 10:16:00 PM
steve_wolfson_sr says:
In the age of multi-venue simulcast, how can NYRA deprive players their racing [to-me-anyway] bible, the advanced issue of DRF? Since Belmont Park was closed the day after Saturday's Belmont Stakes, no racing forms were sold at the track.
Certainly, the powers-that-be realize we horseplayers do not all shut down and take the day off just because their facility is closed.
Posted by steve wolfson, sr. Jun 7, 2009 10:04:29 PM
saratoga_mike says:
Steve,
Well done on the Pick Four, as usual.
Might you post your other Pick Six plays (besides the "main" ticket)? I - and I'm sure others - love to see how you construct your plays. Thank you.
Posted by Saratoga_Mike Jun 7, 2009 9:20:59 PM
crist_fan says:
Steve, many thanks for posting your analysis of the Pick 6 races. After reading your "Exotic Wagering" book, I always pay particular attention to the "grades" before I make my wagers. Yesterday, I also took down a $1 share of the Pick 4, only because you turned my attention to Gabby's Golden Gal in the second leg.
Please keep on posting your evaluations. It definitely helps amateurs like myself!
PS - I also shared in a piece of your 2008 Breeder's Cup Pick Six ticket that you played for an Albany OTB contest.
Thanks again, Steve. Please keep up the good work that you perform for this blog and continued good luck in your personal wagering.
Posted by Crist Fan Jun 7, 2009 9:18:42 PM
ernie_ says:
Great score!
I still love Calvin. Guts, personality---Hall of Famer.
Posted by Ernie Jun 7, 2009 8:57:09 PM
clinton says:
I don't think it's fair to compare figs for any of the undercard to the main event for the simple fact no one else had to travel 12 furlongs Steve. And it isn't fair to compare both halves of the Brooklyn/Belmont dbl because the race couldn't have been run under more different conditions. MTB will continue to be disrespected until he beats the likes of a Quality Road or I Want Revenge but make no mistake about it, he is a very good horse who received an attrocious ride. I'll take him going forward against any or all horses on a dirt track.
Posted by Clinton Jun 7, 2009 8:53:48 PM
kc says:
Steve:
Love the blog. I know this is going to be very elementary, but could you write a refresher course, or direct me to an explanation, of how you actually bet these Pick-4s and Pick-6s? I understand the As, Bs, and Cs, but I can't quite figure out how you bet all of them that somehow costs you less than just boxing all of them. I'm guessing the explanation is pretty simple, but I'm still confounded. Anyway, great work....
Posted by KC Jun 7, 2009 8:25:06 PM
george_quinn says:
No mention of the search party that has been put out to find Court Vision. Any one seen him or his jockey?
Also while your looking for both of them, maybe we can see the Manhatten.
George in Tampa
Posted by george Quinn Jun 7, 2009 8:13:30 PM
Comments to this entry are closed.
About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He recently released an instructional DVD titled "Exotic Tickets," and is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
