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Crist Blog | June 29, 2009
Rachel 111, Zenyatta 104, but...
...of course that's an incomplete comparison between the performances turned in Saturday by Rachel Alexandra in the Mother Goose and Zenyatta in the Vanity. The figs tell us how fast, relative to the speed of the tracks at Belmont and Hollywood Saturday, each ran from point A to point B, but don't incorporate a lot of less-quantifiable factors: the inherent differences between dirt and synthetic racing; the individuals' different running styles, the difference between a developing 3-year-old and a mature 5-year-old; the debatable effect of the higher weight carried by Zenyatta and the ground she always loses with her wide, late move; or the fact that Rachel Alexandra was clearly geared down at the end of her race.
Having said all that, and with all due respect to an undefeated champion, Rachel Alexandra's performance was clearly the more purely brilliant of the two, as is her 2009 campaign to date. In her last three starts, over the three Triple Crown tracks, Rachel Alexandra has won the Kentucky Oaks by 20 1/4 lengths, beaten males including the Derby winner in the Preakness, and won the Mother Goose by 19 1/4 lengths. Has there has ever been a more impressive trio of achievements by a filly in the first half of a 3-year-old campaign?
Ruffian won her first five starts as a 3-year-old by a combined 37 lengths, including the Acorn, Mother Goose and CCA Oaks. Rachel Alexandra is 6 for 6 this year, winning by a combined 59 lengths.
Download RachelAlexandra063009
--Here were the straight-betting pools for the Mother Goose and Vanity:
There were small minus pools in the win pool at Belmont and the place pool at Hollywood. Someone wrote privately and asked how there could have been a minus win pool in the Mother Goose since Rachel Alexandra attracted "only" 82.6 percent of the betting and the track is required (under a 16 percent takeout) to pay back 84 percent of the pool. The answer is that the track is required to pay back a 5 percent profit ($2.10 for $2) on that 82.6 percent of the pool, raising the payback rate of 86.7 percent. So there was an $18,698.62 shortfall that was made up proportionately by whoever handled the bets -- NYRA's share came to only $1.162, the rest from OTB's and simulcast outlets.
--It has taken way too long, but today the New York State Racing and Wagering Board announced it is writing directives to allow superfecta betting in races with 7 scheduled betting interests, down from 8, and with 6 actual starters arfter scratches, down from 7.
It's a start, but the even sillier rule that needs to be changed is the one prohibiting superfectas in races with coupled entries. The only justification that has ever been offered for this inane regulation is that having both a 1 and a 1a in the top four finishers would "confuse" the public as to the winning combination. Please. The poor old public figures this out all the time with trifecta wagering, where there is no such prohibition.
This came up recently in the Grade 1 Manhattan on Belmont Stakes Day, a wide-open race that would have drawn a huge superfecta pool an hour before the Belmont. But no superfecta was offered because there had been two coupled entries Proudinsky (who was scratched) and Zambesi Sun, and Optimer and Court Vision.
Posted by Steven Crist Jun 29, 2009 4:31:57 PM | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
amueller says:
Um. Zenyatta is showing up for the Breeders and Rachel is ducking..er skipping. Kind of tells us what Rachel's handlers think about racing Zenyatta. So what's the debate about? Those 111 and 104 means exactly means what again?
Posted by amueller Aug 27, 2009 10:38:44 PM
john_j_marshall says:
Dear Steve:
The drug issue, both legal and illegal, is of course but one issue that needs to be dealt with as regards what is wrong with horse racing today. It may just be that legalized drugs, such as lasix and bute, are an even bigger source of damage to the sport than are the illegal variety.
Nevertheless, let us just say that in all likelihood, the best approach to take would be a "three strikes and you're out" approach, whereby any third infraction relating to the use of banned substances or prohibited practices in general, by a trainer, results in that trainer receiving a lifetime ban from the sport. What the various wrist-slaps, or even floggings, actually amount to, after the first two infractions, is of secondary importance. What really matters is that after the third strike, any such trainer is kicked out, and never invited back. That should definitely straighten out more than a few of these totally undesirable rascals.
Posted by John J. Marshall Jul 23, 2009 12:15:42 PM
mike says:
"Has there has ever been a more impressive trio of achievements by a filly in the first half of a 3-year-old campaign?"
YES, Lite Light - she won 6 stakes races before winning the Kentucky Oaks at 1:48.80 - .07 better than Rachel.
I am also surprised at the amount of critism that the Zen gets for hardly racing out of California. People seem to forget that the great undefeated champion Personal Ensign stayed at her home base New York for all of her undefeated seasons except for one race. Besides, she is the reigning Eclipse Champion and if you want to try her, you know where she it! Right Jess?
Posted by mike Jul 10, 2009 6:19:27 PM
mickey says:
I am quite surprised by all the knowledgable people on here about the similarities of accomplishments of Rachael Alexander and Zenyatta. Rachael Alexander is a top of the line very good 3 year old filly...Zenyatta is a champion..plain and simple!
Who has Rachael really beaten?..a watered down group of her peers (which I believe she hasn't even tested a horse in Watchmakers top 10!!!). Yes she beat Mine that Bird (who has raced light years ahead of what was expected of him)..but lets not forget he was 50-1 in the Derby for a reason. Although she hasn't raced anyone of her peers...she gets credit from me for doing it the right way...dominating.
Zenyatta?...well what else more can be said?.....she has faced EVERYONE of her peers and beaten them all handily. Now she is carrying weight too, granted I would love her to race against the boys as well..but if she raced against Rachael now...my opinion is that Zenyatta would win easier then many people here might not be willing to believe.
The only thing that can stop her now would be more weight....a very wide trip by Mike Smith (always possible) or a top field of males (Einstein or a Belmont Park Bribon..etc...)
Posted by Mickey Jul 3, 2009 8:38:49 PM
mary says:
Genuine Risk and Winning Colors had by far the most impressive achievements that I've ever seen by fillies in the first half of their 3yo campaigns.
Genuine Risk was the only filly to finish in the money in all three Triple Crown races. Enough said.
Personally I was more impressed with Winning Colors. She won the Grade 1 SA Oaks against fillies in March, then beat the colts by daylight in the SA Derby in April. She then wired a stellar KD field including Risen Star, Forty Niner and Seeking The Gold at 10 furlongs in May.
Then Woody Stevens admittedly sacrificed Forty Niner to make sure she didn't win the Preakness. Remember his quote: “I may be last, but she'll be next-to-last.” Forty Niner finished 7th of 9 after their rough-and-tumble Preakness duel while Winning Colors finished a respectable third. That to me was just as impressive as her wins.
So her Belmont was a bust, but every horse not named Risen Star was a bust in that race. And at least she ran a 12 furlong race to wrap up her spring campaign, which is more than anybody can say for Rachel.
Rachel's achievements this spring consisted of slapping around really bad fillies at 9 furlongs and under. She beat questionable colts by one length in the easiest of the Triple Crown races and then was reportedly too tired to even try the Belmont.
I really hope her connections point her toward a more difficult campaign for the second half of this year so she can earn the "great" title that has been prematurely bestowed upon her. But so far, her 3yo campaign has been impressive only to those with short memories.
Posted by Mary Jul 3, 2009 1:54:04 PM
walt says:
George:
At the time I wrote what I did concerning the Del 'Cap, I had not seen that Zenyatta was pointing for the Hirsch.
Posted by Walt Jul 2, 2009 10:01:09 PM
george_quinn says:
If I were Chip Wooley I would tell Calvin Borel to take a hike. He makes me sick.
George in Tampa
Posted by george quinn Jul 2, 2009 9:51:43 PM
bochalls says:
According to stats on the NYRA website, Kent Desormeaux has THE HIGHEST IN THE MONEY PERCENTAGE AT THE CURRENT BELMONT MEET...56% thru June 28th. And ya'll say he doesn't try.
Posted by bochalls Jul 2, 2009 11:01:39 AM
fourcats says:
Hi Arcstats,
Affirmed was an incredibly talented horse. He won 22 races out of 29, many of them ahead of Alydar. However, brilliance (not talent or ability) is often defined as dominating the field by the number of lengths won. In his article, two of the races that Mr. Crist uses to define Rachel Alexandra's brillance are her pair of 20-length wins. While Affirmed had a number of wins by open lengths, 9 of those 22 wins were by less than 1 length. Against good to great horses, he did what he needed to do (much like Zenyatta). Alydar, on the other hand, never won by less than 1 length (when he won) and only twice by less than 2 lengths. Most people believe that Affirmed was the superior horse, but he was not known for winning way out in front.
Posted by FourCats Jul 2, 2009 2:33:07 AM
jim says:
pop_pops_boy:
Put CH Marquez or Mario Pino on Mine that Bird. They fit that horse like a glove.
Posted by jim Jul 1, 2009 10:07:35 PM
kott says:
I think extracting certain races (e.g. 3yo only) and deciding who was best is a rather silly exercise. Greatness will only be determined over a horse's career. I agree with yuwipi and bostoga bill about Ruffian. My guess is those who are downgrading Ruffian are youngsters who never saw her. Remember - Ruffian not only was undefeated until her breakdown, if you look at her lifetime charts, she was never headed at any call of all of her races. RA or Z in time may prove better, but in my opinion they're not there yet.
Posted by KOTT Jul 1, 2009 3:20:32 PM
arcstats says:
Hey Fourcats, just exactly when was Alydar ever more brilliant than Affirmed? When he was beating up on a bunch of "tomato cans", similar to what Rachel Alexandra is currently doing? Affirmed was brilliant in a whole lot of races that didn't include Alydar. Just check out the 1978 Jim Dandy for starters.
Posted by Arcstats Jul 1, 2009 10:37:09 AM
mike_d says:
***kate says:
I think you are referring to the amazing La Prevoyante.***
You got it; congrats!
Posted by Mike D. Jul 1, 2009 1:40:14 AM
fourcats says:
I agree. Rachel Alexandra has been more brilliant than Zenyatta. However, brilliance doesn't always indicate the better horse. Bernardini was more brilliant than Invasor. Easy Goer was more brilliant than Sunday Silence. Alydar was more brilliant than Affirmed. Remember Bellamy Road. His brilliance in the Wood Memorial made him favored in the Derby. And, as you also said, running styles play a role. Front-running types such as Rachel Alexandra often win more impressively than closers like Zenyatta. Only a race between the two (if they were at their best) would give an indication of the better horse (though a 2 horse match race would clearly favor Rachel since front-runners like her usually have things their own way in a match race).
Posted by FourCats Jun 30, 2009 10:48:08 PM
pop_pops_boy says:
not to change the subject, but, is it me...
or is anyone else sick and tired about the Calvin Borel stick being portayed by this over rated journeyman rider. I just read the latest "conflict" on drf and if I were the owners of MTB I wouldn't let the self proclaimed king near my horse.
Posted by pop pop's boy Jun 30, 2009 9:57:29 PM
george_quinn says:
To Walt, have you not seen that Zenyatta is staying in California to run in the Clement Hirsch on Aug 9 ?
George in Tampa
Posted by george quinn Jun 30, 2009 8:59:53 PM
ponyman says:
G-1 winning horses can win with any jockey aboard. Such as Mine That Bird. Take Danny or Rosemarie from Tampa Bay Downs and they will win with those type of horses--Racheal & Zynetta-Well Armed.Great horses win races not jockeys. There,s a bunch of Hall of Famers that can ride. No big deal if BO-RAIL rides or not--even let Robbie ride--no difference
Posted by ponyman Jun 30, 2009 8:04:23 PM
sidetrack says:
...[I]f the World Cup in Meydan was run on dirt, I think we'd have a (small) chance of seeing Rachel vs. Zenyatta. We know Jackson is willing to run there. The question is whether the Moss's would also be willing. I think the 10f would benefit Zenyatta, while the surface might benefit Rachel, so it could be a good match-up. I don't think they've announced what the surface will be (training track will be Tapeta). But if we could get that matchup on that stage, it would really be something.
Posted by Sidetrack Jun 30, 2009 6:17:43 PM
gary_c says:
I admire Jess Jackson for attempting a run at the Arc with Curlin. But if you look at who Curlin beat last year one should not be surprised that Curlin got beat in the BC Classic. He made the same move it the BC Classic, and when he hung after getting the lead the Europeans were able to beat him. It really had little to do with the surface. That being said if the Moss's want Zenyatta to be rated one of the all time greats he must leave the safety of California at least twice this summer.
Posted by Gary C Jun 30, 2009 5:00:30 PM
wayne_crimi_ says:
I think Rachel Alexandra is one of the greatest 3YO fillies I have seen in my 30-35 years as a racing fan, but I think the conditions of a couple of her races are exaggerating her relative ability.
In both the Oaks and Mother Goose, the pace was much too fast for her opposition, but well within her own range because she is so superior. That kind of dominant speed vs. inferior speed condition typically sees the inferior horses on or near the pace collapsing badly and the superior horse winning by an exaggerated margin.
I think if she faces another good filly later in the year that doesn't set or force a fast pace, the winning margin will be a lot smaller and better reflect her ability.
I think the opposite phenomenon is occurring on the west coast. Zenyatta is running in slow paced races on synthetic surfaces that tend to diminish the margins of victory and make horses look less brilliant. Give Zenyatta a big duel to close off and we'll need a dictionary to find new adjectives to describe her.
Posted by Wayne Crimi Jun 30, 2009 4:49:24 PM
mike says:
Answer: Susan's Girl
First I don't believe Mr. Borel was pushing RA, he did as he always does, he let here find her stride. Her stride just happens to be monsterous. I wasn't a believer till the Preakness. I believed the 2 weeks off after her run in the Oaks, coupled with having Big Drama at her throatlatch would be enough to do her in. She ran outside, Borel sitting chilly, then took the lead when asked and opened up. Granted MTB was getting to her at the end amd withn racing luck it appeared may have even won, but I don't think so. If MTB was getting to her, as people like to say; "with ever stride" he must have a nuetral gear, because that furious rally never carried him past her after the wire, possibly he was conserving energy. No, as far as MTB's concerned he's a one paced closer and you better time if right and hope no ones in your way.
Every horse has it's off days, even Secrateriat got beat, but this RA is something special. She gives me the same chills I used to get watching Ta Wee run. She can cut a hole in the wind when given time to recoup and I agree with Mr. Christ, She beats Zenyatta hands down. Mr. Moss may have been full of Bravado after Zenyatta won, but once he watched the replay of RA's race I'm sure he'll hedge a bit, because he knows Zenyatta will have her hands,excuse me hoofs full.
Posted by Mike Jun 30, 2009 3:42:29 PM
walt says:
Super D:
I think the superfecta rule is in place in New York because what they may be worried about if there is more than one couple entry (or a three-horse entry) that has multiple parts run in the top four, and suddenly you are having to go back to the 6th or 7th finisher to complete the superfecta. They might be worried that some jockey will be easing a horse not realizing the slot matters for the super and/or other matters that could cause some to accuse of fixing the super.
Posted by Walt Jun 30, 2009 3:10:45 PM
walt says:
A couple of notes on the idea of a "Match" race between Rachel and Zenyatta:
One reason I specifically wrote my idea for the Delaware Handicap was if they went there with a $3 million purse, I suspect you would have a full field of 10-12 show up to face the big two, mainly because third money in a $3 million race would STILL be more than the winner's share would be in almost every other race for females in the sport.
Since we are very close to the Del 'Cap's date (Sunday, July 19), if a showdown can't be arranged within a week or two for then (that if it happened, if I were at the NTRA I would then look at getting on ABC or NBC in early Sunday evening prime time (7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT with post time for the Del 'Cap at 7:40 PM ET, as Sunday night prime time in the summer is not anywhere near as highly rated as it once was, coupled with there likely being huge interest in an RA-Zenyatta showdown from more casual sports fans), there is another way such a showdown could happen:
I sent a "snail mail" to Philadelphia Park a few days ago suggesting they try to work out a deal with Magna Entertainment where for 2009, the Pimlico Special (Grade 1) is transferred to Philadelphia Park and is run at Philly Park on Saturday, October 11, four weeks before the Breeders' Cup. As I suggested in that letter, if Philly Park did get to run the Pimlico Special this year, I would do so there as an invitational with a base purse of $1 Million, and the following enhancements designed to get the three winners of this year's TC races and Zenyatta:
If a prior winner of a Triple Crown or Breeders’ Cup race starts, the purse is increased to $1,250,000.
If two prior winners of Triple Crown or Breeders’ Cup races start, the purse is increased to $1,500,000.
If three prior winners of Triple Crown or Breeders’ Cup races start, the purse is increased to $2,000,000.
If four or more prior winners of Triple Crown or Breeders’ Cup races start, the purse is increased to $3,000,000.
The provisions are mainly written as such to get a showdown between Rachel Alexandra, Mine That Bird, Summer Bird and Zenyatta in what might be the only opportunity to get what currently are the four best known horses in the sport together. In addition to those four horses, I would look at guaranteeing berths to a running of the Pimlico Special at Philadelphia Park were it to happen to the winners of the following races:
The Whitney Handicap (August 8 at Saratoga)
The Travers (August 29 at Saratoga)
The Woodward (September 5 at Saratoga)
The Pacific Classic (September 6 at Del Mar)
The Pennsylvania Derby (September 7 at Philadelphia Park)
The PA Derby is included since that normally is Philly Park's top race. Obviously, if other past BC winners showed up, it would make for a great race as well, but the setup is designed to get the "big four" to show.
Posted by Walt Jun 30, 2009 3:06:29 PM
kate says:
I think you are referring to the amazing La Prevoyante.
Posted by kate Jun 30, 2009 2:57:12 PM
john_c says:
Thoroughbred racing fans have become as pathetic in their hopes/dreams as Dickens’ Oliver: “Please, sir, may I have some…more???”
Really, is the best that anyone can hope for a SINGLE meeting between Rachel and Zenyatta? Does anyone think, short of a romp by one or the other, that ONE meeting can determine which is the better filly/mare?
Moss and Jackson are squandering/will squander this historic opportunity to leave one of the ultimate legacies of rivalry similar to those between Personal Ensign/Winning Colors, Affirmed/Alydar, Seattle Slew/Affirmed, Affirmed/Spectacular Bid, Sunday Silence/Easy Goer, Forego/the world.
There is no need to have merely a single showdown race between these two very good charges.
Have one race on the dirt @ Saratoga or Churchill and have another at Santa Anita on Pro-Ride. If they need a “rubber (plastic- haha) match”, they can go to Dubai to vie for a cool $6 000 000 for their troubles.
I was at Belmont to see Rachel’s “workout” in the Mother Goose and, though the track was a hard-concrete highway that day- in the third race that day, $7500 claimers went 6f in 1:09 2/5. What????- Rachel did run an excellent 1:46 1/5 while being geared down for the last 100 meters. I sprinted to the monitors to see Zenyatta do her thing at Santa Anita and, not knowing Smith’s “plan”, I really thought that she was going to lose. After she won, I let out a big yawn and walked away feeling sorry about being so uninspired by her 11 for 11 streak. I’ll say this for her: she sure is a sound mare. Zenyatta has beaten only two decent mares in her career, though: Ginger Punch and Tough Tiz’s Sis.
With Rachel, it’s harder to tell whether she has beaten any substantial filly because she is so dominant but at least she won the Preakness handily.
So, race-fans, be prepared to have even your menial request of a single Rachel-Zenya meeting denied. At least we have a gelding who showed up in all three legs of the Triple Crown and who will likely be around for another year or (may we still dream?) two years; at least we have a 7 year old “genius” horse who gives his all every time on every surface; at least we have a couple of 6 furlong specialists (one of which just came OUT OF retirement!) with opposite running styles (a la RA and Z !) who make sparks fly every time they are on the track.
Posted by John C. Jun 30, 2009 12:59:54 PM
hz_hackenbush says:
Five things we can say with a high degree of certainty about Jerry Moss & John Shirreffs:
1) They would never have DREAMED of running Curlin in the Arc de Triomphe.
2) They would never have run Curlin in a Grade 1 turf race.
3) They would never have run Curlin in the Breeders' Cup on an artificial surface.
4) They would never have run Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness.
5) They would never have run Personal Ensign against Winning Colors in the 1988 Breeders' Cup Distaff on an off-track at Churchill Downs.
Posted by HZ Hackenbush Jun 30, 2009 11:37:50 AM
bochalls says:
Pinckney Hill runs in R3 at BEL tomorrow 7/1. I bawled and bawled about how great this guy (errr, it's a ridgling!) would be and that we'd see him in Stakes races real soon. Well, low and behold, he's in a minor Stakes race....let's see how he does. He went last to first in a sub :22 final 1/4m in his last to win it and stay unbeaten. Not expecting a big price but the field is tough.
Posted by bochalls Jun 30, 2009 10:25:36 AM
bob_m says:
i think that the connections of rachel can clearly see that she will not gain anything by running against 3 yr old fillies the rest of the year.
my prediction is that she will be recruited heavily by the folks at monmouth and she will run against the belmont winner and musket man in the haskell..
if she wins that race, i am praying that they wil then run her in the travers and with alot of luck we will get the derby/preakness/belmont winners all squaring off at the spaaaa!!!
Posted by bob m. Jun 30, 2009 9:30:50 AM
ernie_ says:
"I thought the best 3 races by a 3 year old filly were by Winning Colors."
Gofor_broke is right in every way. I simply blanked on Winning Colors---embarrassing mistake.
I feel Rachel at this stage is the better filly---not by much--- but the half-season accomplishments are similarly sterling. (Winning Colors' Belmont meltdown shouldn't count that much against her.) Thanks to Cristblog reader Ian Lozada for privately pointing out my brainwhiff.
Posted by Ernie Jun 30, 2009 4:26:23 AM
mike_d says:
One more notable filly belongs in the discussion. The year was 1972, and here's a brief excerpt from a Sports Illustrated story that November about this remarkable filly:
"The Selima was her 11th victory in as many starts. She has won her races by an amazing total of 58 lengths, and it could be twice that if Jockey ..., who hasn't missed a ride, had so chosen."
Name that filly!
Posted by Mike D. Jun 30, 2009 1:06:33 AM
mike_d says:
Re: Rachel. Yes, a stunning 3-year-old. But as sensational, perhaps more so was a 2-year-old filly whom Cristblog readers ought to know. The year was 1982 and the filly was Landaluce.
Racing only at 2, she started five times, winning five times. Her combined winning margin was 46 ½ lengths, 21 of those lengths coming in the Grade II Hollywood Lassie Stakes. Remember?
Posted by Mike D. Jun 30, 2009 12:43:48 AM
bostoga_bill says:
I believe that Rachel is good - actually great - but let's wait to see how she does as the year goes on before crowning her the new Ruffian. In my book, the jury is still out as to who's better, Rachel or Zenyatta, and beating two other horses who were out for a $60K and $30K "workout" doesn't say a lot. Her Preakness win was very impressive, so if she continues to improve and impress (especially against the boys), I will say she's in that Ruffian category.
By the way, let's hope the NJ State board follows the NY one and implements more betting opportunities for superfectas and rolling pick 3's and doubles (even if there is a pick 4 starting on that same race).
Posted by Bostoga Bill Jun 29, 2009 10:48:28 PM
bbranch says:
I have to agree with goforbroke...RA beat six nobodies in the Oaks and TWO nobodies in the Mother Goose. She could have won either of those races with any of the contestants on "The Biggest Loser" aboard...I am one of those who doubt she would have won the BEL. I hope she doesn't suffer the fate of so many 3YO's....please allow her to prove greatness on the track.
Posted by BBranch Jun 29, 2009 10:29:52 PM
new_jersey_d says:
I was very critical of Calvin’s ride on Rachael. I thought he rode her too hard unnecessarily when she totally outclassed her two opponents as evident by the 111 Beyer. I do not believe that Rachel can continue to fire these 108+ Beyers throughout the year without at least a 90-day rest. With the CCA Oaks, Alabama and possibly the Delaware Oaks, or the Haskell, does it appear likely this will occur?
I truly believe that the “stretch run” demise of Curlin in last year’s BC Classic had as much to do with the SA synthetic surface as with his long and extensive travel campaign (Dubai, Kentucky, Saratoga, Belmont, and California).
Zenyatta’s race last Saturday was more dramatic. For a second, I thought the weight was going to be her undoing at the 3/16th pole. The fact that she overcame the weight was truly impressive. But it was also looked like a ride where the owner/trainer/jockey is looking more down the line.
But this was only Zenyatta’s second start. I believe that the Mother Goose was Rachel’s 6th.
If the two were to meet near the end of the year, it appears that the race will be Zenyatta’s fourth or fifth start (where Mike Smith is clearly riding Zen just enough to win) as opposed to Rachel’s ninth or possibly 10th start (where Calvin appears to be pushing the petal to the floor each time he rides her).
No doubt the numbers indicate that Rachel is the faster horse. The real question is whether Rachel the “hare” while Zen is the “tortoise”?
Posted by New Jersey D Jun 29, 2009 10:21:31 PM
kellsboro_jack says:
I'd toss in 4-yr old Miss Isella as a nice supporting cast member too with the girls this spring. Her last couple of graded stakes efforts were done so on pure heart, grit and muscle.
Rachel in the 'The Goose' having been less then 1-second off Secretariat's Belmont track record for 1 1/8 mi in the 1973 Marlboro Stakes - and Big Red was ridden hard for that win - should tilt the impressive needle that much closer to her in the context of history.
Posted by Kellsboro Jack Jun 29, 2009 10:05:12 PM
george_quinn says:
Hey Steve,
Best thing I saw all day was not the fact that Milatary Mandate won off of a 6 year layoff at the fair. But the fact that he was 5-2! Only at the fair can you get 5-2 off of a 6 year layoff, a mule race and cotton candy. Great stuff huh? Try getting that in a racino.
George in Tampa
Posted by george quinn Jun 29, 2009 9:55:02 PM
superd says:
Steve,
I'll swich gears and talk about the superfecta rule. Yes, it's so stupid, I don't understand what they are trying to protect with the current rule.
Here's a Rachel comment:
If she meets Zenyatta, it will be her vs. Point Given, because that's who Z reminds me of.
Posted by SuperD Jun 29, 2009 9:21:40 PM
gofor_broke says:
The possibilities with RA are endless.
If she's coming back at 4, they could go to Dubai, try to win that race with Curlin and RA. And the BC Classic on dirt in 2010.
If this year's goal is Zenyatta, then Jess Jackson should probably keep her against fillies, maybe the CCA Oaks and Alabama.
Don't bang heads with top colts, if you want the filly fresh for a big race late in the year.
Posted by gofor broke Jun 29, 2009 9:15:07 PM
prizboy says:
Steve,
How about the article on the bloodhorse website that there is no plans to ship Zenyatta east to face Rachel. No kidding....its funny how Moss was saying he would like to face her before the races this weekend. Then he watched Rachel dominate once again, and probably thought.....why would I want to do this to myself. Why not just stay home and beat up on weak California mares and then try to lobby for horse of the year after winning the Ladies Classic again. There is no way they are running Zenyatta against males (if they were going to do it they would have done it already). They want no part of Rachel especially on the dirt (where she would get crushed). I agree with Jackson in not coming to the west to run on the Synthetic. I bet against Curlin last year in the classic knowing he had a huge disadvantage on that track. All you had to do was watch him on the grass and see he didn't have the turn of foot required to win on the track. I think Rachel should head to the Haskel where she would be favored especially of a surface that would favor her style. Or she could go to Delaware for the cap which is also a million dollar purse. Why not just pluck all these million dollar races on the dirt. I challenge you to find a better dirt horse on the planet right now. None of the older males could touch her. The 3 year old males have already tried and failed. 3 year old fillies...please. And Zenyatta would rather hang out and beat up on weak weak fields for minimal dollars and then wonder why they don't get horse of the year consideration. Got news for you Jerry.....No chance....not unless you can beat the Big Girl....
priz
Posted by prizboy Jun 29, 2009 9:02:13 PM
rgustafson says:
Steve,
With your regards to coupled entries and superfectas, this is just another reason to eliminate coupled entries in all races. Enough of this B.S. about protecting the bettors.
Posted by rgustafson Jun 29, 2009 8:56:49 PM
tony says:
It's a hard comparison to make between the two races, considering the opposition both faced, for which one was maybe equal to an entry-level allowance and the other was more suited to a $40K claimer. The difference, however, is that the 3YO fillies have just a large gap in quality that only a filly or two have managed to fill, and the older fillies are pretty solid elsewhere, but in California they flat-out stink, with an absolute-zero quality to them. Zenyatta's California-only policy might keep her unbeaten, even if she wins the Breeders Cup, but all the critical respect should rightfully be going to a filly who's thinking outside the box with each start and is frighteningly good no matter what seems to be put in front of her.
Posted by Tony Jun 29, 2009 8:51:50 PM
cannibal says:
Here's the plan to get the showdown we all want, plus some other contenders. Offer 1million if both girls show up, if MTBird is still strong add another 500k and maybe toss another 500k towards Einstein or any other horse that emerges this summer and fall. Perhaps Monmouth would pony up the cash for a September showdown as they did for Big Brown.Personally I like Churchill trying to gather all of the champs for total blowout in the Clark over Thanksgiving, but I'm sure breeding plans for Breeders' winners will have taken over at that point.
Posted by cannibal Jun 29, 2009 8:30:55 PM
yuwipi says:
Thought we were going to loose Tommy D. at the end of his Mother Goose call.
Agree totally with Silver Charm's thoughts on Zenyatta. She's a monster and stays one until I see evidence she's gone over the top. If they are to meet I hope its in a traditional fall filly/mare race and not the match race some are calling for. I can't see what match races prove, but to each their own I suppose.
I'm very interested in what course they will take with Rachel Alexandra. There isn't much challenge in the 3 yr old filly division, and with older mares not on the menu until the fall that leaves 3 yr old males. If they embark on a steady diet of open 3 yr old races over the next few months I think they have an excellent chance of failing.
I wish every race fan enamored of Rachel Alexandra the same experiences I had with Ruffian 35 years ago. When 35 years from now the newest 3 yr old filly star is compared to one of your all time favorites you'll realize it's an emotional and aesthetic thing that's not reducible to Beyers and beaten lengths. By saying this I'm in no way quibbling with what RA has accomplished.
Posted by yuwipi Jun 29, 2009 8:05:13 PM
gofor_broke says:
I thought the best 3 races by a 3 year old filly were by Winning Colors. She won the SA Oaks by 8 against Jeanne Jones and Goodbye Halo.
Then beat colts by 7 and 1/2 in the SA Derby.
Then beat a very strong Derby field with Seeking the Gold, Forty Niner, Risen Star, Brian's Time, Proper Reality, Private Terms.
That was '88 and Beyer numbers weren't in the form until about '91.
But going by who she beat and the way she did it, I put her #1 and RA #2, Ruffian never faced anything like those horses. Equal Change is not Mine That Bird, or Forty Niner.
Posted by gofor broke Jun 29, 2009 7:34:26 PM
mlnj says:
I guess a superior filly beating two of her inferiors makes for a great day. 13352, double the usual crowd, supposedly showed up according to the pumped up figures from the NYRA.
But did they really? The 13352 on track bet $1,357,534 or $102 per person. Assuming there were a lot of small betting casual visitors I compared this with Belmont Day when 52861 bet $8,976,064 or $170 on average. (A 13 race card to be sure, but hardly anyone sticks around for all 13.) The most recent clear weather Saturdays were 5/30 with 6698 betting $1,236,726 or $185 per; and 5/23 with 6865 betting $1,304,094 or $190 each.
What really reveals the fraud of the NYRA attendance number this past Saturday though is to assume that the average number of regulars showed up for Rachel and the Belmont and subtract those numbers out, and consider the casual attendance and betting numbers for the two days. On Belmont Day there were 46079 casual visitors who bet $7,705,7654 or $167 each. This past Saturday supposedly had 6570 casual attendees who bet a whopping $87124 or $13.26 apiece.
Yeah. All that promo about Rachel Alexander really worked. I'm sure the folks behind it will be chirping about those extra 6570 they brought in on Saturday.
Posted by ml/nj Jun 29, 2009 7:33:38 PM
beyou says:
All I can say is thank God for Jess Jackson. Can you imagine if one of the Middle East-based outfits had bought Rachel? She may have been shipped overseas never to be seen or heard from again. Instead, she is in the hands of a true sportsman and someone who enjoys watching immensely talented runners…well, run rather than for what they can do in the breeding shed. I still think Jackson is owed massive props for campaigning Curlin last year. And please don't take this as a slight to Godolphin, Darley, etc. Anyone who supports racing, especially to the degree that the Dubai connections do, is a friend in my book. I am just glad that Rachel is in a camp that will keep her Stateside! Now, bring on Zenyatta. That could be a race for the ages!
Posted by beyou Jun 29, 2009 7:05:54 PM
silver_charm says:
I would not overstate the amount of effort required by Zenyatta in her win last Sat.
Far from a maximum effort, maybe more like 70%. Tons more in the tank.
Jackson and Co better not empty Rachels if they are looking for a showdown.
Posted by Silver Charm Jun 29, 2009 6:46:48 PM
ernie_ says:
"Has there has ever been a more impressive trio of achievements by a filly in the first half of a 3-year-old campaign?"
No. Not even close.
Posted by Ernie Jun 29, 2009 5:51:38 PM
gunbow says:
I'm with you Mr. Crist; I really do not think it is sacreligious to compare Rachel Alexandra's season, as a 3 year old filly, with the 3 year old seasons of Ruffian, Go For Wand, Genuine Risk, Rags to Riches, Silverbulletday, Serena's Song, Open Mind, Mom's Command, Davona Dale, Desert Vixen, Gallant Bloom, Dark Mirage, Cicada, Real Delight, Busher, Twilight Tear, Maskette, and Beldame. As of June of each of these fillies' 3 year old seasons, I don't think I could place anyone ABOVE Rachel.
Go For Wand didn't get REALLY great until the Test, Alabama, and Beldame. Most of the above fillies had not defeated males, with Serena's Song(Jim Beam and Haskell winner) and Silverbulletday having been crushed in their Triple Crown attempts, while Genuine Risk and Rags to Riches, winners of a Triple Crown race, did not have a 20 length Oaks win or a 19 length Mother Goose victory to go along with those Triple Crown triumphs.
Many of these fillies listed were also very good at two and/or four, so it is not fair to compare Rachel's career to their careers. However, if we isolate the anaylsis to just the 3 year old campaigns of these fillies, particularly from January to June, Rachel fits right near the top.
Posted by GunBow Jun 29, 2009 5:47:17 PM
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About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He recently released an instructional DVD titled "Exotic Tickets," and is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
