December 2009

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Wacky Weekend Payoffs

It was a light weekend on the graded-stakes front, but a peculiar and interesting one when it came to pick-6 carryovers and payoffs on both coasts.

On Friday night at Hollywood, a $522k carryover drew another $1.75 million in fresh wagers. The parlay going into the last leg was only $8,871, and the race was won by Suances de Espana, the 7-2 second choice. With a carryover and only one actual winning favorite, a $100k payoff for a $40k parlay would have seemed more than square. So how did the pick-6 pay $498,711.20 to only three winners?

There were 55 live combos going into the finale, a maiden-claimer with six first-time starters in a field of 10. Of those 55, 18 were alive to the obvious-on-paper hot firster, Cactus Flyer, a bullet-working Jeff Mullins trainee who would go off the 8-5 favorite at post time. That pick-6 was posted as paying $83,118.40. Another 15 tickets (paying $99,742.80 each) were alive to second-time starter Kay S, who would go off the 3.80-1 third choice, just behind firster Suances de Espana. So even though the winner was a slightly lower price (at 3.50-1) than Kay S., there were 15 live tickets to Kay S. and only three to Suances de Espana.

As for Cactus Flyer, had he won the pick-6 would have paid even less than the posted $83k will-pay, because there was a late scratch in the race of Tribal Fire, to whom there had been 9 live tickets -- all of which were then transferred to Cactus Flyer. So in effect, this was a race with two well-bet firsters, but there were 27 (18+9) tickets alive to one and only 3 to the other. I can only imagine how thrilled people who might have been alive to both Cactus Flyer and Tribal Fire were to end up being alive to Cactus Flyer twice instead of picking up the obvious alternative, the bet-down Suances de Espana. Of course if this had been carded as the first rather than last leg of the sequence, bettors could have seen the action on the winner and included him instead of guessing in the dark.

On Saturday at Belmont, the G2 New York Stakes was switched from grass to dirt in the middle of the afternoon, before the start of the Pick-6, but a decision that could and should have been made earlier in the day. Perhaps the announcement was made early and loudly on the NYRA signal, but I'm forced to watch the races on TVG while the signal remains blacked out in Nassau County, and their commentators were still discussing and putting up their pick-4 tickets as if the New York were still on the grass well after the pick-6 had started. (The ongoing confusion may have contributed to the first big miss in Belmont's guaranteed $350k Saturday pick-4's -- only $257,050 was wagered.)

In any case, the victory by Icon Project (fourth choice of five) in the off-the-grass New York killed all tickets even before 28-1 One Lucky Date took the finale, so there was a $38k carryover into Sunday's card. Most tickets probably singled Cocoa Beach, who was 1-9 on the board (actually 0.15-1 in the mutuels) making her season debut in the for the four-horse Floral Park Heatherten Stakes. Cocoa Beach won the G1 Beldame over Ginger Punch in the Belmont slop last September, but didn't seem to care for today's Belmont slop and neglected to beat any of her three opponents, setting up boxcar place payoffs:

1 - With Flying Colors $13.20 $25.20 ---

2 - Nicksappealinglady --- $33.80 ---

Here were the pools that led to those payoffs:

Cocoa Beach's defeat left only seven tickets alive -- three of them to 8-5 favorite Afrikaner, paying $51k each, and a single ticket to each of four other horses at $154k each -- but those four did not include 9-2 third choice Client Eight, a four-length winner.

So you can get to work on a $154,891 double-carry into Wednesday -- or maybe not until Wednesday morning: Four of the six races in the sequence are, you guessed it, scheduled for the grass. It's been raining all day (and all month) here, and the current forecast is for Monday showers, Tuesday showers and Wednesday thundershowers.

Posted by Steven Crist Jun 21, 2009 7:42:15 PM | Permalink

Keywords:

Comments

bochalls says:

Good luck to anyone trying the Pick 6 at Bel today. TOUGH sequence, esp. R6 and R8. My only advice is not to leave the J Morrison FTS in R6 off your ticket. Cannot locate even one single (which keeps me from playing this) in the sequence. Smokin Sarah (R7) looks like lone speed but she won her last and now drops in class...hmmmm. Posted about the snakebitten Weaver earlier this week, but he may win with his FTS today, as the field is WOEFUL. Good thing about all that rain last week is that we will have some full turf fields to play with in the upcoming days....and a whole lotta bias aided 'play againsts' and bias hindered horses to watch...GOOD LUCK IF YOU PLAY THE P6 today, but I want a carry!!!

Posted by bochalls Jun 24, 2009 9:57:26 AM

b_branch says:

Steve, yr readers show far more creative thinking than management at any track I've attended...yet only WO showed any evidence anyone is listening..on top of that, it is NO surprise the KY legislature can't make an intelligent business decision...good bye EP & TP ownership would be economically wise to follow suit.

Posted by B Branch Jun 24, 2009 2:02:08 AM

dan_mackenzie says:

arcstats - the racing operation you describe was run in 1975 at Roosevelt Raceway. I agree that the time has come for low-overhead racing run strictly for remote wagering. It needs to augment a facility - not be a subsidized millstone - as racing has become in many jurisdictions:

**********

NY Times; March 4, 1975

Roosevelt Struck, Races Go On for OTB; Strike Closes Westbury facility, but Races Go On

WESTBURY, L.I., March 3 In the solitude of an empty track, Roosevelt Raceway staged an eerie program of harness racing tonight after pari-mutuel ticket agents had gone on strike and forced the track to shut its doors to the public.

Posted by Dan MacKenzie Jun 23, 2009 10:51:20 PM

pgm says:

Tommy,

According to the Form's M. Farrell, at http://www.drf.com/news/article/104768.html Studart is injured and out indefinitely.

Posted by PGM Jun 23, 2009 10:05:37 PM

walt says:

Arcstats:

The fact that May IS a SWEEPS month is now WHY we may see the Derby in prime time and under the lights for the first time in 2010. We are in a much different era now than back in 1990, when this would have been unheard of.

The fact is, the Derby TV rating for 2009 of 10.2 was the highest for the race portion in 17 YEARS, made even more remarkable by the fact that ratings for many other major sporting events, and television in general have seen gigantic ratings plunges just since the end of the 2003-'04 TV season. Had the Derby qualified for the prime time TV ratings this year, it would have almost certainly been NBC's highest rated program of the first week of the "May Sweeps" and likely a Top FIVE show for the week of April 27-May 3. The Derby is now one of the few events that can draw a big TV rating on a Saturday night, and I suspect this is a big reason why Churchill is racing the night cards now, as I suspect behind the scenes NBC-Universal Chairman Jeff Zucker would love to see the Derby move to prime time so it would qualify for those ratings and help NBC, a network that has been in serious trouble in prime time for a long time.

Posted by Walt Jun 23, 2009 8:01:56 PM

tommy says:

What happened to Maylan Studart?

Posted by Tommy Jun 23, 2009 6:41:00 PM

arcstats says:

What are you folks thinking - that the Derby and the Oaks would go at night? Let me clue you in on a little fact: May is sweeps month for network TV (for those who don't understand, go do some research). The NBA does not even make to primetime during May; and you think NBC is going to show a couple of horseraces at night?

Has anyone ever been to the Turning Stone Casino in the middle of nowhere in upstate New York? Ten years ago this place could pass for a Motel 6 with a small casino. Now it is a mega complex with 3 golf courses, hotel tower, suite lodges, concert complex, and all without a liquor license. Why the growth - because today's gambling society consists of primarily morons who are willing to go anywhere to sit in front of a slot machine or a negative expectation table game.

That being said, the future of racing as I see it is as follows: Either an existing casino, racetrack, or some organization interested in racing creates a joint like Turning Stone and builds a racetrack as part of the facility. However this track would built for racing only. No fans, meaning no clubhouse or grandstand. Night racing on on a high-def channel. The tracks (inner turf course as well) would be under lights and under cover so that quality racing goes without weather interruption. Between the casino subsidies and the cut from the handle, combined with limited expenses (virtually no employees other than track maintenance, gate crew, and production staff), you create mega purses and quality racing. Let every TV platform and online wagering outlet carry your action at a uniform fee. Racing starts at 8:00PM EST five nights a week, but on two nights post time isn't until 10:00.

But this concept will never happen because the sports management and a handful of naive patrons still thinks it is a "go to" event. And that is simply BS today. This type of thinking is the root of all the current problems in trying to get the product into the home for everyone to access. I challenge anyone to explain to me how the current product would be better than this. Remember, 30 years ago you had to go to Vegas to sit in front of a slot machine. 30 years from now, a segment of the population could be sitting in front of their TV's at night betting the horses if the foundation starts getting built today.

Posted by Arcstats Jun 23, 2009 6:18:01 PM

c says:

A prime time Derby is not a good idea. These are young 3YOs, which have probably never raced under lights or in the later evening. These youngsters have schedules and daily routines when it comes to rest, workouts, feed, etc. Asking them to compete at 9:30pm not only throws yet another twist into the handicapping, but also may not agree with several in the field. Also, while a few hours may seem trivial to us, this can really throw a horse's whole rhythm off for weeks to come. Some may not recover sufficiently to be at their best for the Preakness or Belmont. These aren't automobiles that just start up whenever the key is turned. Remind me again why all this change is needed?

Posted by C Jun 23, 2009 5:58:29 PM

walt says:

Meant to say at the end of the last post:

I know that would mean many parties in Louisville would be pushed back well into the late night hours, however, the Derby has become such an event, coupled with its TV ratings defying the odds and increasing in an era where TV ratings as a whole have plummeted, NBC may wind up dictating this change whether or not Churchill officials or Louisville officials want it.

Posted by Walt Jun 23, 2009 3:30:13 PM

walt says:

Concerning a night Derby (replying to George Quinn):

Sure, a lot of people in Louisville may not like having the Derby at night, but it would be for television, NOT the people at CD as Sherpaguide correctly noted PLUS those in Asia and Australia, who likely would severely spike the betting pools for the Oaks and Derby if both races were later on Saturday and Sunday morning in the Asia-Pacific region (actually early afternoon in Australia). NBC would likely dictate a move to the evening (and more likely with the telecast from 7:00-10:00 PM ET with Derby post at 9:25 PM ET), which, coupled with the Oaks on Friday night (and as noted, likely winding up on NBC as part of that night's Jay Leno Show as NBC can use the Oaks as a lure for people who normally would never watch Leno in prime time), but severely increased handle from the Asia-Pacific region for both the oaks and Derby is also at this point a serious consideration as well.

What would likely happen is if the Oaks and Derby were moved into the evening, figuring a 10:45 PM post Friday night for the Oaks (since that would either be part of the Jay Leno show or have a half-hour window of its own at 10:30 PM ET/7:30 PM PT next April 30 on NBC with Leno either a half-hour earlier or shortened to 30 minutes that night if NBC opted for a separate Oaks telecast) and a 9:25 PM ET post for the Derby on Saturday, what would likely happen those days at Churchill is this:

Oaks Day, gates would open around noon-12:30 PM with first post at 3:30 PM.

Derby Day, gates would open around 11:00 AM with first post at 1:30 PM.

The later opening of Churchill would allow sufficient time for cleanup following an Oaks card that would not finish until 11:30 PM or so on Friday night. There would be three races following the Derby, with that card likely running until midnight or so.

I know that would mean many parties in Louisville would be pushed back well into the late night hours, however, the Derby has become such an event, coupled with its TV ratings defying the odds and increasing in an era where TV ratings as a whole have plummeted, NBC may wind up dictating this change whether or Churchill officials or not Louisville officials want it.

Posted by Walt Jun 23, 2009 3:25:19 PM

matt_w says:

That Chicago OTB was a fantastic and anytime I had a layover st train station I would make a trip over there. It was right out of the movies many characters in there that are truly the pulse of daily racing. We (in New Orleans)had an OTB in the first block of Bourbon Street that was very similar to the Downtown Chicago OTB and it closed in the late 90's.

Posted by matt w Jun 23, 2009 3:09:52 PM

woodridgephil says:

Steve, Just got form for wednesday rollover. HOLY COW hELLLLLLLLLLLP ! How about and array for a disciple

Posted by woodridgephil Jun 23, 2009 2:32:43 PM

unitas says:

I really don't think the ratings would be huge running the Kentucky Derby on a Saturday night, very rarely are sporting events scheduled on a Saturday night, for this is the weakest night of the week for TV networks, attracting the least amount of viewers, and the networks charge the least amount of money for prime time commercials on Saturday nights. Me thinks the casual racing fan will just watch "Sportcenter" on a lazy Sunday morning the following day to find out the results. I honestly believe there will be less interest in the Kentucky Derby if it were to be run under the lights than the traditional late afternoon post. Just my take.

Posted by Unitas Jun 23, 2009 2:08:28 PM

p_ensign says:

Hi Steve:

You never really answered your own question about why the p-6 paid so much more than the parlay at Hollywood on Friday- in my opinion it's simply that only one favorite, of either the morning-line or post-time variety, in the sequence won. With a secondary reason that some of the other winners weren't able to be isolated and used collectively with the one 4-5 shot that did win.

Q: How often do we see a string of six $9-14 horses in a row result in a carryover, when three 8-5s, a 3-1, and two $45 bombs result in a payoff on anywhere from 2 to 52 tickets?

A: More than most might believe.

I always laugh when the TVG guys get all excited after a $68 dollar horse wins one race and start speculating about the inevitable carryover.

Your a,b,c,x methodology notwithstanding, there are players who are able to hit large payoffs with a "single, single, single, single, all, all-" or "single, single, single, all, all, all" strategy that necessitates choosing excellent standouts and then relying on chaos theory to bring unexpected results in wide open events and even better, the rare wheelbarrow score.

I don't know how much information you're able to find out about the tickets that do get played, (although I know that from time to time when a huge payoff is made, the actual construction of the ticket is made public), but if you have access to computer printouts of, for instance, the 55 tickets that were alive that night, I know some people certainly wouldn't mind seeing how they were drawn up...

thanks as always

Posted by p ensign Jun 23, 2009 12:04:09 PM

bsquare says:

As DRF points out, CD opens the gates for historic PM racing and staffs poorly, i.e., management continues to mismanage customer service. Their only concern appears to center around slot machines. For on track handle and concessions, Spring/Summer/Fall P.M. racing @ all tracks appears to make sense, at least during the week....it is certainly worth the experiment.

Posted by B-Square Jun 23, 2009 11:59:45 AM

e_s says:

Hey Prozacjack--perhaps you should appreciate Buckley's dig at the Harvard faculty in context--he went to Yale.

Posted by e_s Jun 23, 2009 11:26:46 AM

eddie_walker says:

Rich,
You hit the nail on the head regarding Santa Anita. The Pro Ride surface is by far the worst of the synthetic tracks and has comprimised, what was one of the finest race meets in the country.
The only racetrack that has benefited from the installation of synthetics is Turfway Park because they race in harsh winter conditions.

Posted by Eddie Walker Jun 23, 2009 11:21:55 AM

hammer says:

A little off topic, but interesting to OTB issue:
Last week Inter-track partners closed the only OTB in Chicago's Loop ( business district). This was the third most profitable OTB in the state. Located two blocks from the train, many bettors would stop by on the way home. I also ate lunch there hundreds of times over the years. Now closed.

Posted by Hammer Jun 23, 2009 9:51:07 AM

sherpaguide says:

A nightime Derby would not be about the crowd at Churchill, its about TV. What a great idea. I host a Derby party every year for friends that only watch the Triple Crown, and people like that would love a Derby on Saturday night. Every sports bar across america, mom and pop watching TV at home on Saturday night...the ratings would be huge...and the pools even bigger!

Posted by SherpaGuide Jun 23, 2009 9:32:27 AM

mlnj says:

Half of the people who go to the Derby go there to be seen. It's pretty hard to be seen in the dark. Yeah, those hats will look really great in the dark. We don't need no steeenkin tradition.

Posted by ml/nj Jun 23, 2009 8:35:49 AM

fabeddieg says:

There will not ever be an Oaks at night not only for the reason George in Tampa gives ... that Friday is the night for all the big Derby Eve parties in Louisville.

No night Derby EVER because of the restaurant seatings being wiped out (this is a BIG deal in Louisville). Louisville bends over for CD on most things and if CD took two times slots of dinner seating from every restaurant on their biggest night of the year (and thus take money from the local economy) CD's local image would get even worse than it is now. And they will never get another break from the city/state. Additionally, CD is in a residential neighborhood ... not a place to have 150,000 people at midnight.

There will be a polytrack Derby, a 14 field Derby, an alcohol free Derby, a Sunday Derby, a Goldophin won Derby, a maiden won Derby, and a dead heat Derby before there is night Derby.

So, the interesting question is: which of these do you think happens first?

Posted by FabEddieG Jun 23, 2009 1:45:14 AM

yuwipi says:

Well Steve, I guess the BC WAYI schedule really does speak for itself!

I see that Avioli had to send a mouthpiece to make a statement as preposterous as "we were having trouble arranging TV coverage" to explain zipping the Spa races from the list. They announced last fall that there would be no WAYI races at Saratoga in '09, so why the need to fig leaf it? Didn't keep them from ceding 8 to Del Mar during the same time period. There's not a single race on the BC site that lists any TV coverage other than TVG or HRTV. Who's kidding who here? It seems to me that the BC has a vendetta against New York racing. I would go on, but it might get vulgar.

Guess I better start boning up on the entries from Moonee Valley.

Posted by yuwipi Jun 22, 2009 10:42:02 PM

george_quinn says:

To Walt, Maybe a night Derby but never a night Oaks. The reason why is they need every second after that last race on Friday to clean up the terrific mess left by the 100,000 people that show for the Oaks. So logistically they could never get the grounds clean for Saturday if the last patron did not file out until after 11. And also I think from an alcohol standpoint a night Derby would be in question because it is such a big drinking event anyway, give this crowd 5 or 6 more hours and it would be ugly.
George in Tampa

Posted by george Quinn Jun 22, 2009 9:00:02 PM

gary_c says:

TVG covers Belmont as if it were a poor step child to Califronia(LA)racing. Infact often a low level claimer at Hollywood is given the same attenention as a stakes race at Belmont. At best only Matt Cruthers gives relevant info to the bettors. When will the NYRA and OTB settle their juvenile distpue. Or when will local state senators do their job and protect the public. Don't count on Senator Craig Johnson to do anything as I have often called and he does not like to speak to the public.

Posted by Gary C Jun 22, 2009 8:33:27 PM

pgm says:

NJD,

Arlington had about three weeks of wet weather before the card. Poly notwithstanding, the track would be would wet from days of moist air and rain. Thus, it's either wet turf or wet poly.

Posted by PGM Jun 22, 2009 8:11:31 PM

steven_crist says:

Alan: The WAYI schedule speaks for itself. The G3 Washington Park Handicap is an automatic qualifier for the BC Classic and the Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup aren't. Truly incredible.

Walt: I don't see how it can possibly be more profitable for a bridgejumper to lose his bet. If you bet $100,000 to show on a horse who pays $2.10, you get back $105,000 for a net profit of $5,000. If the horse runs off the board, you lose $100,000 and might get a $12,000 rebate for a net loss of $88,000. What am I missing?

Posted by steven_crist Jun 22, 2009 6:52:42 PM

callmetony says:

if NYRa or anyone else is this game could ever get there u know what together and make a profit they could use one of the inner tracks as a poly track . Then when were off the turf they could still race on the poly infield track . So tracks would have a dirt track a turf track and a poly track . What is purpose of 2 turf tracks anyway ? when it rains neither one of them is apparently good enough to race on . But that would be asking a lot for a game thats in such a mess it rivals with the AIG's of the world . I really think its time to clean house. And where are these Slots ??????

Posted by callmetony Jun 22, 2009 6:31:18 PM

alan says:

No Spa WAYIs the entire meeting?
No Jockey Club WAYI to the Classic?
Is this their way of "encouraging" dirt horses to ship to the BC cushion track races??

Posted by Alan Jun 22, 2009 3:20:23 PM

unitas says:

Hey New Jersey D, you are kidding, right? Old Fashioned dirt, like it is a fad and going out of style? Modern -era Polytrack? Polytrack is no more safer than dirt, it is only more expensive to install and upkeep. Polytrack is about one thing and one thing only- MONEY. I wish I were the person smart enough to sell the idea that synthetic surfaces were the answer to racing's problems. Guaranteed that every venue in the U.S. that some type of synthetic surface has been installed, a CEO of the track or the governing body of that racing jurisdiction has a financial interest in the synthetic surface that was chosen to be laid over the old surface. Yeah, sand, rubber and wax is a more natural enviornment for horses to race over than dirt. Wonder what the guy upstairs thinks of this...maybe his whole plan was wrong, that the outer crust of this planet should have been formed with wax, sand and rubber.(for the record I LOVE handicapping races that have been taken off the turf, especially if the main track is sloppy, and it is a lightly raced field, plenty of value to be found finding those horses bred to love it wet) As far as the always backwards NYRA goes, they have always pulled races off the turf too quickly in my mind(Not counting the last 3 weeks, it has rained non-stop in NY) for reasons that they want to preserve the turf course(s) for the future...Heck, i've seen NYRA pull races off the grass on the last day of the meet at all of their racing venues (Aqueduct, Belmont, and Saratoga), saving the courses for future racing(which may be up to 10 1/2 months away!) Good luck playing horses running on polycrap, whether the races were scheduled on that surface, or were moved there due to poor turf conditions. Synthetic tracks will NEVER see a dime from me in their mutual pools.
George Quinn, why would Churchill move the Derby? They can't fit any more people in the building the way it is formatted now, what will be gained moving the Derby to a night time start? Any suggestions?

Posted by Unitas Jun 22, 2009 2:59:47 PM

will_latulippe says:

You want to talk wacky payoffs? How about the Pick-6 at Churchill yesterday? Three favorites and a 10-1 shot which I had led to a $24K will pay, so I was kicking myself for not playing such a seemingly easy sequence. Then a 50-1 shot wins the last leg, and it carries over.

Posted by Will LaTulippe Jun 22, 2009 1:26:38 PM

prozacjack says:

Dear Steve, Thank you for letting me rant. I have a great PASSION for this game, and just hate to see it CONTINUE it's DECLINE.HOWEVER if we can "wake-up management" this could be the best time in history to re-energize this great sport. #1, anyone that hates "polycrap" and, I'm not a big fan, STOP playing that track, period, We the horse players have MORE power to make CHANGE than the "arrogant MORONS" that are running our tracks out of business. What is shocking to me is the fact the game is as STRONG as it is. POOR management, by a group of NON-playing horse players, out of touch with the man in the stand, will bring this game to it's knees Look what happened to the MIGHTY G. M. a victim of "POOR MANAGMENT" Big money has gone in the wrong direction for many years, Million dollar races are a dime a dozen, Retired Derby winners at age 3 have produced maybe 2 minuets of excitement, and that's it. If I owned a race track,I would immediately FIRE anyone in the racing office that had a college degree, and has to wear a name tag just to remember their name. I agree with the late William F. Buckley, who stated he would "Rather be governed by the first 20 people out of the PHONE BOOK, than the faculty at HARVARD." I would FIRE any racing secretary that would card a maiden calming or a maiden race as the last race of the day.That LAST race of the day would be RESERVED for the older claiming horses, so it gives the horse player a real chance to re-coup if he happens to be behind for the day. And, that person will be BACK tomorrow.Today people can't wait to get out BEFORE the last race....POOR MANAGEMENT. #3 I would stop racing on Sundays, and race on Friday and Saturday NIGHTS, especially ON the West Coast. Let the Jockeys and the trainers enjoy their families on SUNDAYS..Let the horse players "lick their wounds" #4 I would put a real stop to ALL un-coulped entries, I don't care if we have a 3 horse race, this game was BORN out of two ARROGANT owners with two fast horses.This act puts a VERY bad taste in the mouths of the players that RELY on a trainers M.O. a real TOOL of days gone by, this again is POOR Management, it's a FAILURE to PROTECT the public.To all my fellow Horse Players that disagree, I ask you this, Owner A is a BIG bettor, what is the trainer telling owner "A" about the chances of his other horse that looks VERY formidable on paper, when that KNOWLEDGE is PUBLIC than I will agree to Un-Coupled entries.And if you think a trainer isn't saying ANYTHING to each owner, you still believe in the EASTER BUNNY....LETS FIGHT FOR CHANGE

Posted by prozacjack Jun 22, 2009 12:16:22 PM

walt says:

Concerning a nighttime Derby:

I think that will happen next year, mainly because (as said in an earlier blog post and elsewhere), I suspect NBC-Universal Chairman Jeff Zucker is going to "strongly suggest" (i.e.: demand) that Churchill have permanent lights in place so NBC's Kentucky Derby telecast can run until 10:00 or even 11:00 PM Eastern Time and qualify for the prime time ratings. The Derby's 10.2 rating on the race portion this year (highest since 1992 and remarkable in an era of severely declining ratings for television in general, especially major sporting events not named the Super Bowl) is to me a big reason why that likely will happen. Don't forget the potential of getting much greater additional handle for both the Oaks and Derby cards from the Asia-Pacific region since it would be Saturday morning for the Oaks card and Sunday morning for the Derby card if both were moved to finish in the evening (and if it were on Friday night, the Oaks likely would also wind up on NBC as part of that Friday night's Jay Leno Show that also would likely feature a Derby preview). That too is a big reason why I see Oaks and Derby next spring and the Breeders' Cup next fall at Churchill being contested at night.

Posted by Walt Jun 22, 2009 11:21:55 AM

rich says:

NJD,
there has to be something positive about polytrack, and that is like you point out, off the turf races have minimal scratches. also, i like on poly how they can get nice big fields for a stakes race with older horses. besides that, poly is crap, its fine at keeneland -its a two week meet and had goofy results on dirt also- and arlington, sure its ok there, they had no big dirt races anyway. but synth has to go at santa anita, it has really ruined the racing.

Posted by rich Jun 22, 2009 11:13:28 AM

walt says:

One thing about the weird payoffs you need to be aware of:

Modern bridgejumpers in many cases want the favorite to run out so they collect 12 percent on the rebate instead of 5 percent on the payoff. If you own the OTB, and you lose on a bridgejumper, but offset it with action at a rebate shop, you get 1/8 odds instead of 1/20.

Posted by Walt Jun 22, 2009 11:07:04 AM

gofor_broke says:

I like when they take races off the turf in NY.
Icon Project is very closely related to Munnings, one of the better dirt horses of this crop of 3 year olds. It's long overdue he tried the dirt. His sire won the Belmont in the slop.

When there is a huge track bias like Sunday, off the turf is where I want the races. I don't care how big the fields are

Posted by gofor broke Jun 22, 2009 9:42:46 AM

bob_m says:

to new jersey d,

i would much rather skip the races for a day if the sloppy track takes races off the turf than play seriously on the polycrap... i think most of us feel that way..

Posted by bob m. Jun 22, 2009 9:28:35 AM

grasslover says:

With all due respect, New Jersey D, when races are taken off the turf, I, like so many other bettors, don't play the race at all. With handle decline, short fields, and cancelled racing days at tracks that use poly-garbage, the racing public, as well as some horsemen, have shown an intense dislike for such surfaces. If NYRA ever turns to poly-crap, it will see a downturn in overall business that it may not likely ever get back again. If scratches from off-the-turf events really bother you, remember that you can bet other races at other tracks. My two cents.

Posted by grasslover Jun 22, 2009 3:18:13 AM

new_jersey_d says:

These are the facts for 6/21/09:

In the first race at Belmont, six of the eleven horses were scratched when the race was taken off of the turf.

In the third race at Belmont, ten of the fifteen horses were scratched when the race was taken off of the turf.

In the sixth race at Belmont, six of the eleven horses were scratched when the race was taken off of the turf.

The track was sloppy all day.

In the second race at Arlington Park, none of the eight horses were scratched when the race was taken off of the turf.

In the fifth race at Arlington Park, three of the nine horses were scratched when the race was taken off of the turf.

In the seventh race at Arlington, three of the ten horses were scratched when the race was taken off of the turf.

In the ninth race at Arlington Park, none of the eight horses were scratched when the race was taken off of the turf.

The track was fast all day.

The difference is that one track used old-fashioned DIRT while the other used the modern-era POLYTRACK.

Posted by New Jersey D Jun 21, 2009 11:46:18 PM

christian_fjeld says:

...It is indeed clear from various congressional testimony and other data that early seasoning of 2-year-olds is probably a good thing for the animals, despite what naysayers may say. Now if we can get you on board to be a an advocate for reform on irresponsible breeding and drug policies, we may actually make an objective champion of the great sport of horse racing out of you yet!

Posted by Christian Fjeld Jun 21, 2009 10:18:20 PM

brian says:

The bad weather has made it more easy to take it easy for the next month and wait for Saratoga. Hopefully, the wet weather won't spoil the early weeks up north like it did last year. But this has been a rough spring for NYRA.

Posted by Brian Jun 21, 2009 9:04:17 PM

george_quinn says:

Steve, Do you REALLY think Churchill is thinking a night Derby after 30 thousand hot dog starved fans on Friday?
George In Tampa

Posted by george Quinn Jun 21, 2009 8:39:46 PM

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About

Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He recently released an instructional DVD titled "Exotic Tickets," and is the author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."

December 2009

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