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Crist Blog | June 02, 2009
What Price Mine That Bird?
I'm beginning to think that anything better than even-money on Mine That Bird in the Belmont might be stealing -- and I think his price is indeed going to better.
Now before you point that canister of Weasel-Away in my direction, I'm usually not a chalk-eating rodent when it comes to the Belmont. Horses going for the Triple Crown may be the biggest underlays in racing, and I picked and bet against Big Brown and Smarty Jones at 3-10 in recent years. If Mine That Bird were in that position and price, I'd be lining up against him. But at the 7-5 or 8-5 most people are predicting, and with the 2-3-4 Derby finishers and 1-3 Preakness finishers absent from the Belmont, maybe he'll be as underbet Saturday as he would have been overbet had he won at Pimlico.
Here's how the betting went in the last six Belmonts where there was no Triple Crown on the line:
My guess is that Mine That Bird will be more like Aptitude's 1.75-1 than Point Given's 13-10 or Afleet Alex's 11-10. The latter two were coming off decisive Preakness victories that properly led bettors to believe they had asserted themselves as superior to their Triple Crown classes. But if you take Rachel Alexandra and Musket Man out of the Preakness, didn't Mine That Bird "win" with a similar kind of authority?
My feeling as of Tuesday is that the place to get cute in this Belmont is by opposing the second choice rather than the favorite. Charitable Man is obviously a horse of quality, but I wasn't as knocked out by his Peter Pan as others were. It didn't come up that strong against the clock -- his winning Beyer of 98 was the second slowest since 1991 -- and he couldn't have had a dreamier set-up: One rank horse in front of him running off to a big lead and chucking on the turn, while Charitable Man sat second and then took over with a "burst" that may have been a bit of an optical illusion.
Saturday's card will be drawn Wednesday morning. If you're looking for something to do in the meantime, there's a $48k pick-6 carryover when Belmont reopens tomorrow,and it looks playable -- just two buried firsters and one turf sprint in the sequence. The featured 8th, a N1x for turf fillies, is the DRF Race of the Day. Stakes-placed Blitzen Too and Forest Trail are the obvious favorites but look like the right ones.
Posted by Steven Crist Jun 2, 2009 6:06:44 PM | Permalink
Keywords:
Comments
mike_d says:
I see Mine That Bird as a huge underlay at his 2-1 ML odds. I think Charitable Man is the most likely winner -- and 2-1 on him will be fine with me. I'll also take 4-1 on Dunkirk, 8-1 on Chocolate Candy and 11-1 on Summer Bird, if I can get those odds. I'd need 4-1 on Mine That Bird.
None of this is based on guess work. It's based on a formula. Of course, the formula is sort of based on guess work.
Posted by Mike D. Jun 5, 2009 3:06:56 PM
chisox says:
Sean,
Since when is a one run closer from far back the right running style for the Belmont?. MTB may be just too good for these and win anyway, but he will be an exception to the rule that these types do not usually fare well.
Posted by chisox Jun 4, 2009 1:48:41 PM
tom_mcdonough says:
DRF needs to do a more lengthy and considered piece on Vincent O'Brien. His career justifies far more than an obit.
Posted by tom mcdonough Jun 4, 2009 11:33:47 AM
wayne80 says:
Horserun, IF Secretariat had been 1-1 would that not be value?
"Value" does not equal "long shot".
We can debate whethar 8-5 is value on MTB in this race, it is subject to each individuals handicapping opinion and skills, but to automatically throw out the favorite in every race because you are seeking perceived value will land you in debtors prison.
If MTB is 8-5 and Chocolate Candy is 4-1 would you still consider CC the value play?
I would not.
Posted by Wayne80 Jun 4, 2009 10:57:12 AM
bochalls says:
Steve, to make a long story short: if my bankroll hadn't necessitated a single in R8 (i chose Blitzen Too instead of the lone speed) I would have taken THE ENTIRE P6 POOL yesterday at Bel...wow. Five of six was a good payout...mentioned to you yesterday about the fave in R9 being iffy and proposed Api Mokhat as an alternative. Well, he scratched and that got the 14-1 winner on my ticket. Was against the Bush/Desormeaux runner in R6, Offensive Attack, and spread a bit; managing to snag the Jeff Odintz 20-1 shot...again, unreal was the emotion when the 4 hit the front in R9. Yippee, I've got a nice 5 of 6 payout, but man oh man...coulda had it all. Even more peculiar is the fact that I mentioned Token Special's last race(the disputed 1/2m split) and she won anyway at 6-1 in R2...so what about today??? Not chasing the carry, but I do like Dancing Tin Man in R7 and Keep Laughing in R8.
Posted by bochalls Jun 4, 2009 10:31:46 AM
sean says:
Oh, and I'm not touching Charitable Man. How many Peter Pan winners have been way overbet in the past 10 years? Ive been guilty myself, going on Sunriver in 2006. And I remember Purge in 2004 being talked up as the wise guy horse against Smarty Jones.
Just remember that AP Indy in 1992 is the last Peter Pan winner to take the Belmont. Charitable Man is a toss.
Posted by Sean Jun 4, 2009 10:04:04 AM
sean says:
Dunkirk = throwout. He is one of the most overrated horses I have seen in recent memory.
I think Mine That Bird is the clear favorite since he's proven to be the best in the field and his running style is well-suited for the 1 1/2 distance.
The only concern is if the two previous races took anything out of him. If he falters, I'm looking towards Chocolate Candy or the rapidly improving Flying Private.
Posted by Sean Jun 4, 2009 10:01:58 AM
beerbelly says:
Computing the stamina indexes of 5 generations of tail-female families of all Belmont starters here are the top five bred to go 12 furlongs:
Dunkirk
Chocolate Candy
Miner's Escape
Summer Bird
Mr. Hot Stuff
Charitable Man is bred to go long on the sire & broodmare sire line. However his tail-female line says "oxygen deficit in the stretch."
Mine That Bird's talent & heart should put him in the supefecta. Tail-female lack of marathon stamina precludes victory.
Good luck all.
Saturday's track will be fast.
Alas, the turf will be less than firm.
Posted by beerbelly Jun 4, 2009 9:56:21 AM
matt_m says:
Sometimes you forget how weak some of the fields were in the Belmont. That 2006 bunch that Steve posted was brutal....a glorified allowance field.
Haven't gone over my Thorograph figures yet, but think MTB will be awfully tough. Surprised at how many fellow 'cappers are taking big stands against.....but that's what makes it interesting!
Posted by Matt M. Jun 4, 2009 9:46:38 AM
joe_s says:
Wasn't it marble the engraved Secretariat pedestal, split in 3 by the runaway? drf said concrete.
That's a terrific statue of a real legend.
On the other hand, Sea Hero was a nice horse, but bronzed in the Saratoga paddock? How many more deserving 'Spa' horses can you consider, Mr. Crist?? In my book In Excess, Fourstardave certainly, would be good REPLACEMENTS.
To be fair, the Secretariat pedestal tells us Paul Mellon paid for the bronze of 'Big Red'. But Mellon's Sea Hero in bronze?
Put up a people's horse. Bronze Fourstardave!
Posted by Joe S. Jun 4, 2009 6:36:55 AM
chisox says:
new_jersey_d,
MTB does not necessarily have to be in the same class as Thunder Gulch to duplicate a Derby/Belmont double, after all they are not facing the same fields. As for Dunkirk not wanting 1 1/2 miles based on his stretch run of the Fla Derby as someone mentioned earlier, well that is just silly. He ran a huge Fla Derby under impossible circumstances and he absolutely is the value play in my opinion. It is very hard to knock MTB but one intangible I am counting on is that the grind will catch up with him and I like that Dunkirk will be fresh. Lastly, Dunkirk's Derby was obviously a throwout and thankfully many bettors have short memories.
Posted by chisox Jun 4, 2009 2:33:52 AM
yuwipi says:
...I didn't see the Peter Pan quite like you did. It reminded me some of the Florida Derby. The winner taking command, repulsing a challenge from a well supported deeper closer, and drawing off nicely. If Charitable Man has upside off that effort I see him with a real chance. Bringing me not to "what price Mine That Bird" but what price anybody? A 10 horse field, with 4 eligible for NW1, and 2 barely more accomplished leaves only 4 entries taking the lion's share of action. It should be very interesting to see how the players bet this one, but I see it as difficult to get fair value on any of the figure horses.
I hope I'm not going to be one of those poker playing tourist suckers giving you my cash Saturday Steve. But so be it. I treated the Derby as a black swan event, and although impressed with Mine That Bird in the Preakness, I'm still not a believer, especially at what I expect to be much less than the morning lines. 3-2 or 7-5 maybe? Still enough for you to back up the Brinks truck.
The weather forecast is starting to get a little worrisome. Hoping for fast and firm Saturday.
Posted by yuwipi Jun 3, 2009 11:21:46 PM
dan_mackenzie says:
An overlooked accomplishment is horses who have won what I call the Triple Crown Honorable Mention. They did not win the Triple Crown, but finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in all 3 races:
2007 Curlin ················ 1974 Cannonade
2005 Afleet Alex ··········1971 Jim French
2004 Smarty Jones ·······1969 Arts and Letters
2003 Funny Cide ········· 1969 Majestic Prince
1999 Charismatic ·········1968 Forward Pass
1998 Real Quiet ·········· 1967 Damascus
1998 Victory Gallop ······1965 Tom Rolfe
1997 Free House ········· 1964 Northern Dancer
1997 Silver Charm ········ 1963 Candy Spots
1995 Thunder Gulch ····· 1963 Chateaugay
1994 Go For Gin ···········1959 Sword Dancer
1991 Mane Minister ····· 1958 Tim Tam
1989 Easy Goer ···········1956 Fabius
1989 Sunday Silence ···· 1956 Needles
1988 Risen Star ·········· 1955 Nashua
1987 Bet Twice ·········· 1953 Native Dancer
1986 Ferdinand ·········· 1952 Blue Man
1985 Chief's Crown ······ 1950 Middleground
1981 Pleasant Colony ··· 1949 Capot
1980 Genuine Risk ······ 1949 Palestinian
1979 Golden Act ········· 1947 Phalanx
1979 Spectacular Bid ···· 1944 Pensive
1978 Alydar ··············· 1942 Alsab
1977 Run Dusty Run ···· 1940 Bimelech
1976 Bold Forbes ········ 1938 Dauber
1975 Foolish Pleasure ··· 1931 Twenty Grand
Posted by Dan MacKenzie Jun 3, 2009 11:20:34 PM
george_quinn says:
To Larry Thiel, What Florida Derby were you watching? If Dunkirks nostril was in front that is it. Quality Road repelled him as soon as he ranged up next to him. Watch it again and you will see a horse in Dunkirk that was never getting by Quality Road. The good news if you like Dunkirk like I do is there are no Quality Road's in this race on Saturday.
George in Tampa
Posted by george Quinn Jun 3, 2009 11:02:20 PM
othello says:
It will be interesting to see what Calvin does with the Bird. Probably the best horse, but, for wagering purposes, I will hope that, as the favorite, Calvin will keep him closer to the pace, which should be a slow one, and as a result of using him early, he will have nothing left in the stretch and will check in a one paced third.
Let's go with the other two sons of Belmont winners, Charitable Man and Mr. Hot Stuff. Can the Tiznow stretchout do it again this year? Since he's got no speed I will say no, and put him in the 2nd spot only.
60 exacta 6-3
20 tri 6/3,7/3,7
Posted by othello Jun 3, 2009 10:29:31 PM
horserun says:
...I will stick to my strong belief, that any handicappers job is to find the value and bet AGAINST the chalk...always trying to pick winners will just lead you to the chalk and then the poor house
MTB is a LOCK......for SHOW
give me Chocalate Candy , he is going to love Belmont
Posted by HorseRun Jun 3, 2009 9:31:23 PM
mike_p says:
You should expect Mine That Bird closer then has been in the previous two races and he won't be coming from 25 lenghts back. Borel will use his acceleration to be in position to be at the lead or on the lead turning for home and it will be a stretch dual between MTB and Charitable Man.
Posted by Mike P Jun 3, 2009 8:36:49 PM
evan_gewirtz says:
Steve,
The RAI sea turtles looked a lot better than the black "authorization required"screen I saw on my cablevision office TV.
How much leverage could NYRA really have by merely cutting the in-home signal to Nassau cablevision subscribers? It really seems like a pusillanimous move to me. NYRA may be losing more revenue than Nassau OTB by cutting the Nassau in-home signal. If NYRA really wanted to get Nassau OTB's attention, they would cut the entire NYRA signal and deal with the state officials.
As it stands now, NYRA is only likely to engender the ire of horseplayers and horseowners in Nassau County who will blame it on them even if they were initially blameless.
Posted by Evan Gewirtz Jun 3, 2009 7:50:57 PM
larry_thiel says:
The way Dunkirk lost the lead in the stretch of the Florida Derby would make me think he's not a horse that wants to run on a mile and a half.
Posted by Larry Thiel Jun 3, 2009 7:29:05 PM
chuck_berger says:
In my opinion,and it's only an opinion...............don't be surprised if all the media and so called handicappers are caught in a switch.It seems that everyone is a genuis one race too late. No matter what price MTB goes off at,it will not be a "gift." He may well win, but other than wanting to see Calvin make history, there will be no real value in betting MTB.
I see a number of scenarios where he can be beaten. This is not a stellar field,but there are good reasons to give four other horses a good shot. In the past eight years I have won betting the Belmont with Commendable, Lemon Drop Kid and Birdstone.They all paid telephone numbers.Too many people get caught up in the hype...
Charitable Man was the gift in the Peter Pan, and I bet him accordingly. MTB can win saturday, but a too short price is not a gift.
Posted by Chuck Berger Jun 3, 2009 7:20:12 PM
richiebee says:
Steve:
I know your arguments against the $1 P6.
On big race days, such as Belmont Day, I think a standalone $1 P6 would be well
received.
If there was a carryover the Friday before Belmont Day, carry it to the day of racing following Belmont Day.
Then conduct a $1 P6 with mandatory payout on the day of the big event.
Feasible?
Posted by richiebee Jun 3, 2009 6:12:12 PM
dan_c says:
I agree I believe as a professional handicapper I am pretty good with the racing form and rags etc etc. In looking at this race its not a matter of the Bird being great its a matter of he is running against NOTHING..... Charitable Man is a complete throwout. Just like Casino drive was last yr before his scratch. The Bird is getting better and better and only lost to the best horse in the country cause of a blindfold poly track ride by Smith. This horse will win the Belmont by open lengths.
Do not be surprised when he goes by on the turn and runs away. He will not be far back. He will click off 12's all day and be gone. Even money is a gift. This horse may run in the marathon in October, he can run all day.
Posted by dan c Jun 3, 2009 4:46:18 PM
haelaih says:
The area of 3/2 would seem right for MTB and given that he fired his best shot the last two I probably would take a stand against here. Dunkirk with Unbridled on top and who can trace back to Man O War through Caro and is out of Secret Status by A.P. Indy would be the one that intrigues given that breding does tend to dictate the Belmont.
Is he good enough?
4-1 will find out and he as well as MTB will be usable in all your exotic wagering.
Posted by haelaih Jun 3, 2009 3:11:32 PM
jr says:
Steve, so he is your
single in p4&p6 with CM
& Dunkirk as b's or c's ?
Does his running style bother
you a little or is it just me
that thinks taking 7/5 on a
chaser from way back is hard money.
Posted by J.R. Jun 3, 2009 2:17:23 PM
jms says:
Bet the House ? Then be prepared to live in your car. How many horses have come from more than 5 lengths back at the Mile call in the last 10 years ? MTB is going to have to dramatically change his style in order to win the Belmont and if he decides to do this he is doing something that he hasn't before... A Huge bet against.
Posted by jms Jun 3, 2009 12:33:12 PM
harry says:
Steve,
I admire your courage and certainly realize that you're not a chalk player; so I'm surprised that you like mtb so much. If they beyer, let's say a 110, can't he easily get beaten? If CM or Dunkirk turn for home with a clear lead I would doubt that the bird could run him down.
Posted by Harry Jun 3, 2009 10:43:04 AM
c says:
New Jersey D,
"...As for Mine that Bird, is he in the same class as Thunder Gulch, the last horse to compete in all three triple crown races who won the Derby and Belmont? I doubt it."
Whether he is or isn't, I don't understand how that's relevant. Why would MTB need to be as good as the last horse who fit a certain pattern? That was 15 years ago against a totally different group.
Posted by C Jun 3, 2009 10:28:29 AM
steve_in_nc says:
Steve, you wrote:
"...if you take Rachel Alexandra and Musket Man out of the Preakness, didn't Mine That Bird "win" with a similar kind of authority?"
But how many horses are you allowed to ignore with this kind of analysis before it becomes a total stretch?
The more relevant thing to "take out" is the one synthetic track race of Charitable Man. He is undefeated on dirt, and drew away at the end each time, regardless of set-up or level of competition.
To me, the real question in about MTB is: Can he repeat a top effort yet again, for the 3rd time in 5 weeks, after having twice just run so much faster than he'd ever run before? I'm not tossing him from trifectas, but I do expect him to tail off enough to fall short in his rally.
Posted by Steve in NC Jun 3, 2009 10:19:10 AM
el_angelo says:
It's worth remembering that neither Dunkirk nor Chocolate Candy, both well-regarded horses before the first Saturday in May, fired their best shots on Derby day, most likely due to the track condition, while Mine That Bird clearly did. They're where you should be looking for value.
Posted by El Angelo Jun 3, 2009 10:04:00 AM
pattydaleure says:
Great point, CV. The Bird is a HUGE play against at anything under 5-2. Sorry Steveahreeno.
Dunkirk is the value play as the probable third choice.
Looking for perfect weather in NYC this Saturday. I'm gonna play the entire Belmont card from my balcony overlooking Churchill Downs. Throw a little Belmont party here in Louisville this Saturday. Really looking forward to it.
Posted by pattyDaleure Jun 3, 2009 9:51:39 AM
bochalls says:
Thanks for the time clarification Steve- I had a feeling the :46 was the correct split...last leg of the BEL Pick 6 is tough as I don't trust Here I Go Again to wire em at 7f. Seems that Brooker D has the pace to make him work and I've got the feelin he's gonna get late. Whaddaya think of Api Mokhat in that race???
Posted by bochalls Jun 3, 2009 9:47:53 AM
hammer says:
Nice picture of the long- tailed weasel. My gut tells me that MTB finishes second again. Have not yet figured out who the winner will be.
Posted by Hammer Jun 3, 2009 9:42:15 AM
callmetony says:
i'm thinking MTB may have trouble closing on big sandy from so far back .
I 'm playing him for 3rd and 4th ......
Isn;t history on my side for such a deep closer ?
Posted by callmetony Jun 3, 2009 8:45:44 AM
joseph_r_benson says:
In addition to Flying Private being 3rd of 4th, I will also be playing Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird in those positions.
Posted by Joseph R. Benson Jun 3, 2009 5:25:53 AM
joseph_r_benson says:
I am pretty sure Borel has never ridden in the Belmont Stakes. Which could be an x-factor, another possible x-factor being the pace scenario, and also the 3 races in 5 weeks for MTB, he could be eligible to bounce slightly. Though Afleet Alex romped in the Belmont with the 3 races in 5 weeks, that was maybe the weakest 3-year-old crop in my lifetime. Another example is Curlin who lost to Rags to Riches in the Belmont after the 3 races in 5 weeks. And I don't think she was a better animal than him, just more rested. I actually had a $1,000 exacta on that race, I hit a pick-6 the day before and right away bet the Rags over Curlin exacta. I think Charitable Man ran a solid race in the Peter Pan, and don't think he was close to all out in that race so I think he could improve leaps and bounds from that performance, also third race off the layoff is enticing, the perfect record on conventional dirt, should have a beautiful trip, and his daddy also is a Belmont winner. IMO Charitable Man will win, and MTB second, and I think Flying Private will also be there too (he had a little more trouble in the Preakness than MTB). Dunkirk could be the horse to be out of the money, I really have a thing for Unbridled's Songs getting that kind of distance (although he does have stamina on the bottom). They usually seem to top off at 9 furlongs (Eight Belles 2nd in the derby is the only Unbridled's Song I can recall off the top of my head that ran well in a big race beyond 9 furs. But as for 7-5 or 8-5, I wouldn't quite call it stealing. Though he very well could win and maybe at those odds and your statement could appear genius. But if he goes off at 1-2, would you still key him on top of all bets? And is it still an intelligent risk?
Just my 2 cents. Like the blog topics, keep up the good work Steve.
Posted by Joseph R. Benson Jun 3, 2009 5:23:36 AM
cigarvacation says:
Steve-
Can you imagine making this statement at 5:00 p.m.est 05/02/09 "I'm beginning to think that anything better than even-money on Mine That Bird in the Belmont might be stealing" The only thing your colleagues would have thought stolen was your brain. Amazing what a couple of weeks can do for a three year old.
Posted by cigarvacation Jun 2, 2009 11:34:18 PM
dutch says:
But Point Given and Afleet Alex both had better "resume's" going into the Triple Crown than Mine The Bird. And their Kentucky Derby performances were considered by many to be great disappointments, not one of the biggest upsets in horse racing history.
Posted by Dutch Jun 2, 2009 11:07:05 PM
reinier says:
tony_kelso, I'm a little confused as to how you would doubt a son of BIRDSTONE, might not want to go 12 furlongs at Belmont...What logic are you using to question MTB's distance abilities?
Posted by Reinier Jun 2, 2009 9:33:57 PM
new_jersey_d says:
...As for Mine that Bird, is he in the same class as Thunder Gulch, the last horse to compete in all three triple crown races who won the Derby and Belmont? I doubt it.
Posted by New Jersey D Jun 2, 2009 9:14:03 PM
bob says:
Steve,
Funny you say that. I was thinking if mine that bird could possibly go off at 2-1, I would bet the house. Of course, with Borel being up his odds will go down. Everyone of those 2 dollar, " I got an ebay ticket", will purchase one.
I wish Rachel would have run.
I would probably get at least 2-1 on him then. I really can't see him losing, less something unreal. He's clearly the the most accomplished horse in the field, the distance shouldn't be a problem and quite frankly, the pace is irrelevant. He kind of reminds me of Afleet Alex. I think if they go crazy and go 46 he's 15-20 lengths off, if they go 49-50, he still can be 10 lengths off. He's proven he's a rather nimble, very athletic horse. I think they figured this horse out and he's on one of those very improving three year old runs; we've seen that before.
Contrary to guys like Andy Serling, who I respect as a handicapper, I think that mind that bird is not compromised by pace in this race. In fact it's irrelevant, he's simply the most logical winner given fast or slow pace. Unless someone freaks and he simply doesn't like the track, he's a gift at 8-5. Of course it is a horse race and they have to run it, but unlike a lot of people, after seeing his derby, I had NO doubt he would show up in the preakness. Having said that, of course he was an automatic throw out in the derby for me. But, going back, this horse was no chump. He was 2yr old champ in canada and perhaps they only way you could of had him was if you were close to the connections, which often doesn't mean much. I couldn't make up a lie to tell you I liked him in the derby. However, given his run in the derby, I really thought he couldn't be beat in the preakness. let's not forget he didn't have the best of trips and given a little bit ground saving, he would have been by her; rather easily, IMO.
I'm not taking anything away from her, but the hype around her is a little ridiculous. The field she demolished in the oaks was nothing. I 'll give her credit, she should up and ran her race, but IMO he was the better horse; that's horseracing. By all accounts he's training great, looks great and should be the overwhelming favorite. I guess what i'm trying to say is, I wasn't one of those guys who thought he was a fluke in the derby. There's a big difference between his derby and let's say Giacomo. When a horse comes home in 23 and 4....regardless off the track, in the derby....that's a real horse.
Posted by Bob Jun 2, 2009 8:30:40 PM
teag says:
The first year I noticed weird things with the Belmont betting was in '03, the year after Sarava won at 70-1. It seemed the crowd was determined not to miss another longshot, so they bet horses like Supervisor and Scrimshaw down to 14-1 and 11-1. I was happy to play Empire Maker at 2-1.
Similarly, in '05 after Birdstone scored, the longest shot in the 11-horse field was 20-1, and don't forget what a standout Afleet Alex was in that race.
This year seems ripe for this scenario again: a lot of ill-advised money on the lesser horses in the race, hoping not to miss the next longshot. Very good news if you like MTB, but it's possible that the whole odds board will be out of whack and you can get value on more than one legitimate contender.
Posted by Teag Jun 2, 2009 8:29:44 PM
george_quinn says:
Steve, How often do you look at a race and not be number driven by it and just say I have a feeling? Just wondering because sometimes we can look at the form and all that is available and when they cross the wire, you feel as if your looking at a dog racing program. Nothing is logical sometimes is my point so why not take a shot with your gut on occasion. How often do you do that?
George in Tampa
Posted by george Quinn Jun 2, 2009 7:59:52 PM
tony_kelso says:
Not Being "Charitable?"
Steve, I can see why you might want to take a stand against Charitable Man, but I am by no means convinced that Mine That Bird wants to go 12 furlongs over "Big Sandy." MTB is not really in the league of Afleet Alex or Point Given, when 6/5 was truly "stealing." We expect bolder moves from you! :-D
TK
Posted by tony kelso Jun 2, 2009 7:40:09 PM
jz says:
I think what you meant to say was....Anything over 2-1 on DUNKIRK is a gift..
Posted by JZ Jun 2, 2009 6:54:11 PM
dan_mackenzie says:
Steve:
This 2001 Belmont chart from the DRF shows that Point Given had odds of 1.35
http://www.drf.com/tc/belmont/2004/pps/belmont2001_chart.pdf
[Dan: Thanks, fixed it.--SC]
Posted by Dan MacKenzie Jun 2, 2009 6:49:38 PM
steven_crist says:
bochalls: I just watched that replay and NYRA posted the half-mile time as 47.19 but that seems impossible since the 5f split was posted as 57.68. I don't think they ran the fifth furlong (partially around a turn) in 10.49. The official chart of the race says 46 flat and I'm assuming that's the correct fraction.
Posted by steven_crist Jun 2, 2009 6:37:44 PM
bochalls says:
Got a minor problem, Steve. Token Special is entered in R2 @ Bel tomorrow. Her last race on 23May @ Bel R8 is listed as having a 1/2m of :46.00 by DRF. However, my figs (and the NYRA replay show)have that split at :47.03, which would make her final fraction VERY fast. She gained 4 lengths vs a :22.87 final quarter...or did she? This gal made my horses to watch list because of this alleged performance....can you tell me please which is the correct 1/2m time?.
Posted by bochalls Jun 2, 2009 6:23:27 PM
Comments to this entry are closed.
About
Steven Crist has been the Publisher and a columnist for Daily Racing Form since 1998. Previously, he covered racing for The New York Times from 1981-1990; was founding editor-in-chief of The Racing Times in 1991-92; and a vice-president of the New York Racing Association from 1994-97. He recently released an instructional DVD titled "Exotic Tickets," and is the
author of several books including "Betting on Myself" and "Exotic Betting."
